Remove ads

Looking Glass (MLP)

Reader mode
Remove ads
64
  • Threadmarks
    • "What do you mean?" Luna asked, scooting up to sit.

    Twilight looked torn between anger and shock as she took several steps back, "She says she didn't solve the recurrence principle."

    "The what?" I asked, "Keep in mind that most ponies here don't have several doctorates in magical theory."

    Twilight shook her head, "The recurrence principle. Basically, the world doesn't like things coming out and into it and the more each thing does it, the more dangerous it gets as they weaken the fabric."

    "Dangerous how?" I asked, glancing at Midnight who were looking away.

    Luna frowned, "It's not a linear progression. Your appearance in Equestria for example had almost no risk as it was your first trip. But the danger increases exponentially, especially when done in short order," she said seriously, "Such as only a month having passed, especially when it's so many of you."

    "Dangerous how?" I asked, pushing myself up, looking at Twilight.

    "It may cause a world breach. Remember that thing that appeared at the table when we tried to make a portal to send Midnight and Talon back?" Twilight said, "That wasn't a full breach, just a partial one to the space between worlds. A full one may... I don't know. I never got the math to work, it might throw a pony into the void and seal itself or... or it may cause a permanent portal a hundred meters across to any world or even no world!."

    The size of small village.

    We appeared just next to Ponyville. In the middle of Equestria.

    I stared at Midnight, "You knew of this?" I asked her quietly, feeling ice slide down my spine.

    She raised her wings defiantly and looked at me in turn, "I did the math with Starlight and the odds of it happening were low, barely two percent."

    Two percent.

    She gambled a lot of ponies getting hurt on 98 percent.

    Luna let out a small gasp and I couldn't blame her. Out of all the fucking irresponsible... I never would have thought that of her.

    Slowly getting up, I moved off the throne and towards her, "Two percent," I said, "Each?"

    Midnight swallowed, taking a couple of steps back, shaking her head, "T-there were safeguards, Starlight w-"

    She broke off as I reached her.

    "So it was more than two percent. Everypony in ponyville. Roll of the die. Two percent."

    "No! I-"

    "Talon. Pinkie Pie. Rarity," I said, "I suppose Applejack might have made it if she was home. Maybe Rainbow Dash if she could fly fast enough. The ponies running the bakery? The storekeeps, the ponies in the market, the ponies living in the village? Not so much. There is a school in Ponyville, isn't there? How many foals go there? Is it within town limits?"

    Midnight started to cry, "I... the math..." as she slowly backed away.

    "Fuck the math!" I snarled, baring my fangs at her as I followed, "There are things you don't fucking risk on math! Not for such low gains!"

    "We just-"

    "We should have stayed," I told her, "We should have stayed and found a better way. A safer way. But no, you dec-"

    Somepony touched my shoulder and when I looked, it was Luna. In fact, she was the only one other than Midnight that was on this side of the room, everypony else had retreated and... Sparks had a shield up around them.

    Luna looked at me, "Page, I need you to calm down," she said softly but seriously, "Close your eyes, deep breaths."

    I looked up at her before I did as she told me to. As I did, I realized my mane had been moving. My tail too.

    Damn.

    I had never done that before.

    Suddenly I felt tired. Exhausted even. I almost fell and would have if Luna had not pressed her side against mine in support.

    "Go home," Luna said softly but firmly, looking at Midnight, "I will talk to you later."

    There was the sound of hooves and then wings as Midnight left.

    I opened my eyes again, "Sorry," I said and then looked at Sparks as the shield went down, "...What's with the shield?"

    Sparks uhmed and glanced at Sunset.

    Sunset looked back at her before slowly approaching, "Page, you were... shimmering."

    I looked at her and then up at Luna, "I wasn't sparkling, was I?" I asked in slight horror.

    She frowned and then shook her head, "No. It was more like a heat haze around you. I could feel the dream realm around you so I told everypony else to take cover just in case."

    "Oh."

    That's new.
     
  • Threadmarks
    • Doccer said:
    You're here, your safe, Starswirl made it happen on clockwork, so what's the big deal.
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...

    "You're here, you're safe" doesn't apply in situations where the failure state could be anything from "depopulate a local town" to "destroy the entire fucking world by opening a portal to a black hole on accident". 2% is an unacceptable margin of risk with those stakes, especially since the risks could apparently have been mitigated further by simply waiting for the fabric of reality to settle a little longer.

    This is also about informed consent. A 2% risk of killing a bunch of people or possibly even worse is not a "better to ask forgiveness than permission" kind of situation, it's a "you damn well tell everyone what the risks are before you go through with it and let them decide whether those risks are worth it" kind of situation. It's one thing to gamble with the lives of other people, it's another thing entirely to gamble with their lives for the sake of someone who doesn't even know there's lives at stake.
     
    Why is he so mad? It was only three people, if what Midnight said is true and that's 2% per traveler that's still less than 10% (6% to be precise) hell at that percentage you don't even have enough of a chance to win the lottery!

    I honestly don't see what the issue is? They Ran the Numbers, there was a less than 10% chance of a Breach and I highly doubt refining it any further would have reduced the risk at all.

    Not only that but you Had a Twilight, one of the most magically and mentally gifted Unicorns in ANY version of Equestria AND a Pony that has ALREADY Reality Hopped. If they decided that a less than 10% risk was okay than why bitch?

    Setting all that aside, what if anything else they could have tried would have lead to another Elder Incursion? If it wasn't for Celestia nuking the first one, they would have had a Foothold situation.

    In the end I think the risks were worth it.
     
    Jack_Fireshard said:
    Why is he so mad? It was only three people, if what Midnight said is true and that's 2% per traveler that's still less than 10% (6% to be precise) hell at that percentage you don't even have enough of a chance to win the lottery!

    I honestly don't see what the issue is? They Ran the Numbers, there was a less than 10% chance of a Breach and I highly doubt refining it any further would have reduced the risk at all.

    Not only that but you Had a Twilight, one of the most magically and mentally gifted Unicorns in ANY version of Equestria AND a Pony that has ALREADY Reality Hopped. If they decided that a less than 10% risk was okay than why bitch?

    Setting all that aside, what if anything else they could have tried would have lead to another Elder Incursion? If it wasn't for Celestia nuking the first one, they would have had a Foothold situation.

    In the end I think the risks were worth it.
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...

    ...I don't know how to explain to you that having a one-in-ten or even a one-in-fifty risk of killing an entire town's worth of people or possibly even more is bad.

    Midnight was basically playing Russian Roulette with what is essentially an untested weapon of mass destruction and didn't see fit to tell anyone about it or mitigate the risk by either waiting for reality to settle a bit (Luna mentioned right off the bat that breaching universes too soon after a breach already happened increased the risk of a problem, so if Luna knew it, Midnight definitely did) or by transporting them in an area that isn't as inhabited so that if they show up and instantly break open a portal to the bottom of the ocean or something, people don't instantly die for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

    And you don't see a problem with that?

    It's also worth mentioning that Twilight, regardless of home universe, is known to sometimes have severe lapses in judgement when she's upset. Her being a magical and mathematical genius does not in any way mean she is incapable of making bad decisions under stress. All the more reason she should have been open about those risks so that someone other than Starlight, who is also known to make catastrophically bad decisions under stress, can reality-check her plans if need be.
     
    I don't get it. It was a single trip across, with the group bundled. That's a 2% chance, and that's extremely low. If there was a 0% chance of something going wrong I don't think I would have believed it. Especially since the portal eating Ponyville was listed as a single possible consequence, with there being more than one possibility. What are the chances the error would have made a portal, and not another result?

    This also isn't counting the fact that no one saw an issue previously with trying to return Midnight home. The problem only seems to have been viewed in a controlled home trip that Midnight herself said had safeguards built in in case of the 2% chance.

    Feels like Page is overreacting
     
    Blacksheep said:
    I don't get it. It was a single trip across, with the group bundled. That's a 2% chance, and that's extremely low. If there was a 0% chance of something going wrong I don't think I would have believed it. Especially since the portal eating Ponyville was listed as a single possible consequence, with there being more than one possibility. What are the chances the error would have made a portal, and not another result?

    This also isn't counting the fact that no one saw an issue previously with trying to return Midnight home. The problem only seems to have been viewed in a controlled home trip that Midnight herself said had safeguards built in in case of the 2% chance.

    Feels like Page is overreacting
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...


    Well, lets look at it this way. What is the population of Ponyville? maybe 1000? Its not a large town, but that is enough. Even discounting the long term risks a world tear would represent to equestria at large and assuming that only ponyville would be destroyed in such an event, Midnight's decision to take 5.9% odds (2% taken three times to move three travelers) was a decision to, on average, sacrifice 59 ponies to the void.

    Now, she said the spell had other failure states than a full tear, and she had safeguards. She likely did, but how reliable were they? Enough to safely diffuse (or not need to due to a less severe reaction) 50% of world tears? 75%? 90%? Unless they safeguard has over a 98% success rate, she still had, on average, condemned a fellow pony to the Between.

    She got lucky this time, so forgiveness will be cheap. But there is a reason we demand systems on public airplanes have failure rates of 1/10^5 for minor systems and 1/10^9 for life critical ones; we cannot know when we will roll snake eyes, when life will decide that nothing but nat 1's are in our future. A 1% chance of 100 deaths is no better than the certainty of one death, because if you keep playing the odds you will get the hundred killed sooner or later.
     
    Last edited:
    I'm sorry but Page needs a serious reality check! He is the leader of Nocturnis, a 2% chance is more than safe especially considering that the by a cold calculus he is more important than a small town. How many lives has he saved? How many lives is he responsible for? He needs to do that math, or be slapped in the face with it! It has been how many books now and yet he still can grasp that he has to make judgement calls that suck, there is not a good answer and his respsobility is to spend lives wisely!

    Now Sparks should have said something, but at the end of the day the chances and risks far outweighs the consequences if it all goes wrong. He is a major stabilizing force in global politics, without him far more people would die than without.

    Please have Page forced to grow as a leader in the next couple books! He has been developing as a character but it needs to speed up a bit.
     
    Ah, but it wasn't a 6% risk. It was 2% for each. If you roll a dice and don't get a one, the next person to roll a dice doesn't get a higher chance to get a one.

    We also know nothing of the safeguards, as Page doesn't understand anything about the spell used.

    This also wasn't a plane trip, but a one time hop through. And one that no one was concerned about before, so why care now? Midnight and Twilight were easily forgiven when their attempt to send Twilight home opened up tentacles. Midnight successfully brought Page home with no danger, and she is punished?

    Or is it because she had the audacity to follow Page back instead of stay where she belonged?
     
    I think I need to talk about my knowledge and experience in both the army and the medical sector.

    2%? People have been lynched for less than that.

    For ANY authorities having a population as their responsability, it's completely unacceptable. No if, what and it's already done.

    As an example, an acceptable risk in plane accident is about 0.4 per million departures.
     
    What is Page's villain name? We have Nightmare Moon for Luna, Nightmare Rarity from comics, Solar Tyrant or some variation for Celestia. Would it be Nightmare Page? The Blank Prince? Empty Page?
     
    Blacksheep said:
    This also isn't counting the fact that no one saw an issue previously with trying to return Midnight home.
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...

    Blacksheep said:
    And one that no one was concerned about before, so why care now?
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...

    You do recall that it's explicitly stated that the more breaches in reality occur, the worse the odds get on an exponential level, right? Once was minimal risk, twice was fine with enough time between breaches to minimize the risk, but the risks keep climbing at an alarming rate the more you do it and the faster you do it. There's a difference between having one beer when you're completely sober and have a designated driver and having one beer when you're already plastered and so is your designated driver, especially if you've got a dead-man's switch rigged up so that if you pass out from alcohol poisoning, a bomb probably goes off and kills everyone in town.

    ...I think that metaphor got away from you a little bit there.

    The point is, Midnight, Talon, and Page going to the wrong universe on accident was their freebie on the "minimal risks" part. Doing it again in quick succession without adequately addressing or discussing those risks with the intended beneficiaries is the problem here, because by all accounts Midnight didn't deal with those risks so much as she got to a point where she was desperate enough not to try and reduce them more, in a situation that wasn't actually urgent enough to warrant an immediate jump despite the risks. If the risk percentages weren't at least two decimal places behind a whole number, they shouldn't have done it.
     
    I still don't see the problem, while waiting would have reduced the risk, that risk would never have been 0.

    Hell I think there was more Risk in Page staying in Midnights Reality than anything, Page represents a Major corridor of Divergence and add on that he is now an Alicorn, a being of power. His Reality (the one he landed in) has had time to adjust to his presence as it was early enough along the timeline that he didn't have any influence on any fractures that would happen.

    No I think Midnight was right to ignore the less than 10% chance of breach, they were there for what? A month? That should have been long enough of a gap.

    Did they Risk a town? Yes. Could they have moved to a less populated area? Maybe, but how do we know if said less populated area is in fact the same on both sides? Pages Universe has changed enough that what could be an empty field on one side, could be a small village on the other.
     
    Jack_Fireshard said:
    I still don't see the problem, while waiting would have reduced the risk, that risk would never have been 0.

    Hell I think there was more Risk in Page staying in Midnights Reality than anything, Page represents a Major corridor of Divergence and add on that he is now an Alicorn, a being of power. His Reality (the one he landed in) has had time to adjust to his presence as it was early enough along the timeline that he didn't have any influence on any fractures that would happen.
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...

    To my knowledge only damage caused by entering or exiting a timeline has been established as a risk to them, there has been no mention of divergence as a threat to timelines. An inevitable consequence of external vistors, sure, but not once that threatens that timeline anymore than a tourist marrying a native threatens a city. The city changes, but isn't damaged for that change.

    Jack_Fireshard said:
    No I think Midnight was right to ignore the less than 10% chance of breach, they were there for what? A month? That should have been long enough of a gap.
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...

    Why would a month be enough for dimensional instability to settle? We know that many years was enough to mitigate the risks of Page's 2nd jump, but a month is almost two orders of magnitude less and we know that a 3rd jump is exponentially more dangerous than the 2nd. If anything a longer wait would be nessessary to let the instability settle to levels safe for a third jump.

    Jack_Fireshard said:
    Did they Risk a town? Yes. Could they have moved to a less populated area? Maybe, but how do we know if said less populated area is in fact the same on both sides? Pages Universe has changed enough that what could be an empty field on one side, could be a small village on the other.
    Click to expand...
    Click to shrink...

    Equestria has plenty of locations that are poorly suited to equestian settlements, and the worlds had not diverged so far as to change that but for the recent inclusion of openly changeling and threstle populations. The subject matter expert on both is Page, who could speak with authority as to where those elements have settled or might have settled in his month of absence. Anywhere that Celestia might choose as a wasteland that Page didn't veto would be as certain a vacancy as could be asked for. The risk of jumping from a wasteland into a new and unknown settlement is much lower, both in odds of there being a settlement at all and number of souls contained therein, than the near certainty of jumping from ponyville to a still-populated ponyville.
     
    Reader mode
    You must login or register to reply here.
    Remove ads
    Back
    Top