I wonder what the easiest way to find out the date time travelled back this far. T, T, T had the advantage of it being a religious date, but Tucson doesn't. Are star patterns accurate enough? Volcanoes probably won't change dates, but it's hard to be sure, and it's too far back for matching it to some historical supernovae or comet with much ease.
Volcanic eruptions this far back tend to be a bit uncertain as to exact dates. For example the eruption of Thera that Wilson alluded to is dated to anywhere between 1642–1540 BCE. Someone might be able to get a date using how the stars have changed if they had the proper equipment, which almost certainly no one has.
edit: At least during the first few months
Confirming who's in charge of Egypt or even the Hitties might help but even that could get iffy.
I wonder what the easiest way to find out the date time travelled back this far. T, T, T had the advantage of it being a religious date, but Tucson doesn't. Are star patterns accurate enough? Volcanoes probably won't change dates, but it's hard to be sure, and it's too far back for matching it to some historical supernovae or comet with much ease.
The longer you observe, the more precise your measurement will be. Besides star patterns, it would help to study solar and lunar eclipse cycles, and saros series. Axial precession might also be useful to look at. Planetary configurations. By combining them you correlate them with almanacs that cover the period
I think that with several years of observations, you could figure the exact year.
If you have good astronomers (amateur is as good as professional here), with high-end telescopes, it could be a considerably time, but it's very hard to tell how much, depending on circumstances.
Instantaneous observation will be no more precise than archaeological estimates, is my guess.
But it would confirm that it is indeed the same general period.
Regardless, anyone with any astronomical knowledge is going to be very important to secure future navigation capabilities.
Tucson is a lucky city in that respect, amateur astronomy is popular in Arizona, and the peopele from Kitty Peak observatory. At least at few of them should have survived.
Tucson is a lucky city in that respect, amateur astronomy is popular in Arizona, and the peopele from Kitty Peak observatory. At least at few of them should have survived.
Would imagine it'll still at least be a decade before anyone has the time and energy to devote to pulling some surviving astronomers- whether amateur or professional- together along with the equipment and resources to work it out.
Would imagine it'll still at least be a decade before anyone has the time and energy to devote to pulling some surviving astronomers- whether amateur or professional- together along with the equipment and resources to work it out.
I disagree, I don't think it would take that long, though I can understand the argument against. I think that you've got a large number of people who, after things stabilize even just a bit, are going to both be incredibly curious about the answer as well as having the equipment to figure it out. I would guess even by 2-4 years out things would have reached enough metastability for enough amateur astronomers to spend time on one of the most burning questions people have. You don't need that much stability to reach that threshold.
A few thoughts... Moving steel lathes and other machine tools out of Tuscon can be hard for some time. You kind of need that for manufacturing of parts and machinery to any reasonable precision. Another problem that I see is the fact that modern machine tools use electronic control systems.
It's not impossible, there are people with such stuff in their garages, but also not trivial logistically. And of course stuff produced at workshop scale is costly (in resources, time of very scarce skilled workers, etc) as hell, salvage may be often cheaper.
------
Also, long-term issue of ammunition. It's not like you cannot use black powder, but it's hard on automatic or semi-auto weapons: .
"The days after we arrived were a not a crime but a reforging. The weakness of old america were washed away with the blood of those who dared to oppose us." - Clara Martìnez, Citizen of New Sparta
The End of the First Wave
The worst was over within six months of the event. Most refugees had settled or had perished in the wild, and though many groups still roamed Western Anatolia, these were largely small bands who lacked the strength to attack any substantial villages and towns. Of course by this point most of the villages and towns were populated by fellow refugees more than able to defend themselves.
The effect of the Tucson Migration upon the people of western Anatolia was nothing short of apocalyptic. Tens of thousands of those native to the region were killed, enslaved, or displaced. Several cultures such as the Assuwa were basically wiped out overnight, the enslaved survivors forcibly assimilated into Tucsonian settlements. Culturally the region was now overwhelmingly American.
In the north-western parts Anatolia, only a few hardy American individuals and small groups reached the borders of the Kingdom of the Hattusa, commonly known as the Hittite Empire. Most of these disappeared into one of the kingdom's cities or were wiped out vengeful mobs, but a different and much larger group of refugees did stream over the border in large numbers. Most of this group was culturally Hittite if not directly related to the inhabitants of Hattusa. These Hittite refugees brought with them tales of destruction and carnage that made even the most bloodthirsty warrior turn pale in horror. King Labarna made plans to conquer the savages they described but, his plans never came to fruition as Labarna and many others within the Kingdom soon succumbed to the unexpected passengers many of the Hittite refugees brought with them. Hattusa quickly found itself devastated by numerous epidemics as diseases that wouldn't have existed for thousands of years ravaged the unprepared Hittites.
The former citizens of Tucson knew little of what the Hittites were suffering, most of them in those days focused inward, desperately trying to collect and process their stolen harvests. This effort was hampered by lack of tools, with many resorting to the stone and copper implements left by the former inhabitants. Adapting to farming and even cooking with such primitive tools proved more challenging than many expected, and more than one village failed because of struggles with the first harvest.
The mood in most survivor villages and towns was almost catastrophically grim. For many the weight of what they had done far outstripped what they had acquired. They had butchered thousands just to spend the next few months living on scraps while doing back-breaking labor in the fields. The first winter was a bitter one and many wondered if any of the villages would survive. Fortunately most did, and by spring the earliest post-event American governments began to take shape. The first and most notable of these was New America, which quickly rose to become one of the first major powers in the region, but fell almost as quickly.
You paint a fascinating image of the survivor towns. I imagine the rusted hulks of cars sitting between appropriated native buildings, occasional bits of color in the form of scraps of modern cloth or metal, maybe a crude windmill and rough cabins.
You need a few years for cars to rust, I mean, unless that was a 15 year old used car with some rust even at the start.
Aaand of course any car wrecks = metals superior to copper and much better than raw iron ore. Rubber from tires is also not without significant value. Not to mention glass, wiring, pipes, plastic... electricity generator... ( Alternator (automotive) - Wikipedia )
I had a rather hard time fighting an image of an abandon car that remotely fitted what I wanted. Though considering that car is probably from the 80s it was probably rusting already.
I should point out that if you reattached the front bumper, it would be far from the most janky car I've seen driving around Tucson.
Not saying Tucson's bad, parts of it are certainly, but there are some people around who will drive their cars well past the point they should have sold them for scrap.
I own 22 year old car myself, so I can understand this, sure : P
Less electronics, even better source of some mechanical parts that could be creatively used. I mean, if you have enough skills and creativity obviously.
"New America was lesson, albeit a painful one. It taught us that we couldn't just restore what we lost. That whatever we built was had to be different in some manner if it was to survive. It also taught us how damaged we had become." - General Mark Wilson, New Tucson Republic
The Rise and Fall of New America
New America was the first truly organized governing body to come out the fall of Tucson. Every refugee group that made it past the Field of Bones had some sort of leadership, but this was often informal and ranged from lone strong men (and women) who ruled with an iron fist, to duos, triumvirates and councils. Many of these de-facto governments would keep hold of their leadership once they transitioned to village life, but New America is was the first declare itself a new nation with state institutions, even if it still flew the old flag.
New America started in Fordville. Fordville was founded by one Jon Ross and was one of the new villages, built from numerous tents, the remains of dozens of cars and even a few helicopters that had escaped Tucson International Airport and the Airbase. To most Jon Ross was everything one could want in a leader; charismatic, ex-Army, kind but firm, and intelligent. Fordville quickly gained strength as it used its military strength to forge alliances with neighboring towns and villages, promising mutual aid in both defense and supply. A few daring trips back to Tucson further increased Fordville's power as they acquired weapons, material, animal feed, seed potatoes and farming equipment. With advice from two Air Force officers and several friends, both new and old, Ross declared the birth of New America less than eight months after the event.
His intention was simple, to restore the United States of America to the greatest extent that he could under the circumstances. While he acknowledged the flaws of his old country, Ross firmly believed that a New America would bring with it a needed return to normalcy for the people. For the first five years all seemed fine, New America grew by leaps and bounds as more and more villages and towns signed up. Interim Majority Speaker Ross and his new government were rather loose in their demands, only asking for contributions to the Federal Militia and a percent of every harvest to be distributed to less well off villages and stockpiled in Fordville. Beyond those, Ross kept the constitution intact, particularly the old freedoms such as speech and religion.
Regrettably this would play a major role in the downfall of New America.
Said downfall began with a man called Father Santiago. Who Santiago was proved a mystery, as no one could recall knowing him and everyone was certain they'd never seen him before at any church. He just seemed to appear one day on the outskirts of Fordville. At first he seemed harmless, even proving quite popular as he traveled from village to village giving out food to those in need. Soon however, people started to notice a rather...dark slant to his preaching. Beyond the usual "Stealing is a sin, Homosexuality is a sin, not being christian is a sin, repent for you are all sinful!" sermons he also focused on the event. He called it a work of the devil, claiming it was Satan's attempt to doom the souls of every person ever born by ensuring their Lord and Savior Jesus Christ was never born. This naturally made many of the more desperate rather fearful and soon Father Santiago had a sizable following centered around a small compound on the edge of New American territory. Many secular and religious officials protested to Ross, calling him a heretical fear-monger who was sooner or later going to cause an incident. But Ross refused to take action, as everything the Father had done was legal and Ross felt that moving against him would start the country on a slippery slope to dark places. Frustration with Father Santiago inadvertently fueled the growth of the Church of the Storm God, a new faith that combined elements of native religions learned from integrated locals with elements of various neo-pagan faiths.
New America's first election would also be it's death blow. After five years Ross was exhausted, he found himself battling illness constantly and he was going grey before his time. He wasn't dying per say but he realized if he stayed in office he wouldn't live long enough to see his youngest son reach adulthood. Feeling things were secure, Ross announced elections with his hand picked successor, Micheal Hawk, leading the newly formed Stability Party that pushed for generally continuing most of Ross's programs. Two other parties formed in opposition, with Sarah Anderson running for the Farm and Labor Party and Samson Crawford running for the Conservative Party. Sarah advocated formalizing government control of the farms, the exile of Father Santiago, and greater relief programs. Crawford pushed for military control of the farms, programs and laws to promote population growth, and a focus on remodeling New America into a truly "Christian" state, with the Church of the Storm God being banned and exiled. Most were confident that Hawk would win and the nation would see an easy transition of power.
Unfortunately this would not be the case, largely because of how the election itself was organized.
To put it simply, the election was handled incompetently. A paper shortage had forced alternate voting methods to be used. Because there was no formal plans for said voting methods; painted reeds, stones, and even clay tablets were used by various towns. To make matters worse, no official plan had been enacted to regulate voting. Sometimes had more traditional voting places, others had town halls and few even held public votes. This resulted in a chaotic, confused, and generally angry election day. Anger that was further inflamed a few weeks later when it was announced that Farm and Labor had won a commanding majority. Accounting to the votes, Sarah Anderson would be the first President of New America.
Many urged Ross to throw out the results and hold new elections, or even suspend elections entirely and appoint Hawk to replace him. To many the results were clearly because of voter fraud, as even the Conservatives had gained more votes than expected. But Ross refused, citing his belief that such things were not done in America. He instead urged the people to accept the election and to hold a recall vote l if Anderson failed to live up to the office. For weeks tensions simmered between all three parties, fights even broke out in larger towns.
Then came the news that caught everyone off guard; Fordville was in flames.
In the chaos following the election, Father Santiago had been silently and slowly moving his disciples through the country towards Fordville. Once there they attacked with torches and clubs, trying to destroy everything they could. Santiago was determined to destroy Fordville and any other trace of American influence on the land, believing that if he wiped away everyone and everything that had been transported here, he would be able undo Satan's work. Fordville's defense forces were caught by surprise, and soon the disciples of Santiago were rampaging through the streets. Only a few dozen escaped the chaos, Ross was not among them. The Disciples were soon crushed and Anderson herself shot Father Santiago at his compound, but the damage was done.
Almost immediately after the attack Crawford staged a coup against Anderson and reorganized New America into the Arizona Republic. Anderson's supporters revolted, forming the People's Republic of America. Soon they were joined by revolts from both the Church of the Storm God and Micheal Hawk and the Stability Party. Once he secured a peace deal with Crawford, Hawk quickly revealed his long hidden egomania and began rapidly building a cult of personalty around him, eventually declaring the Kingdom of Arizona some years later.
What was once New America remains divided, a shell of it's former self as all of its factions saw massive emigration that saw many of it's people joining other states or even going on to create their own. For the many states that followed, New America would serve as a example to learn from. Though few can agree on what that lesson should be and almost every faction twists the story of New America's fall to their own political bias.
Failure to find some way of sidelining Santiago (encouraging harassment of people over their religion is at least worth a formal Cease&Desist order) was the first Critical Error.
To put it simply, the election was handled incompetently. A paper shortage had forced alternate voting methods to be used. Because there was no formal plans for said voting methods; painted reeds, stones, and even clay tablets were used by various towns. To make matters worse, no official plan had been enacted to regulate voting. Sometimes had more traditional voting places, others had town halls and few even held public votes.
This was the second. A smooth handover to Anderson, or even Hawk having to appease an organized opposition he cannot risk shooting, would have done the place good.
You know it does bring up an interesting theological question. Since Jesus isn't born yet and hasn't died on the cross Christianity is pointless. Since Christ's sacrafice only applies after his death, before Christ you had to deal with Yahweh the Jewish god. At this point in time are the Jews slaves in Egypt or have they gone to the promised land?
It does make sense, some scholars believe that the Jews were never slaves in Egypt they were just a tribe of Caanites aka Phoenicians and at first they were polytheists like everyone else but they worshipped Yahweh or El who was a storm God, and eventually started worshipping only him where we got monotheism with the Abrahamic religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam.
It does make sense, some scholars believe that the Jews were never slaves in Egypt they were just a tribe of Caanites aka Phoenicians and at first they were polytheists like everyone else but they worshipped Yahweh or El who was a storm God, and eventually started worshipping only him where we got monotheism with the Abrahamic religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam.
I've heard of the suggestion that the Abrahamic god was originally a solar/sky deity at the head of a pantheon that was either dropped or folded into its leader. Haven't heard much association with storms, but that's not impossible.
Nation building in such a desperate ISOT is a slippery slope. If you ISOT a sufficiently large region it shouldn't be a problem to maintain modern forms of governance. A small, scattered and traumatized uptime population that is suddenly deprieved of basic necessities and subjected to backbreaking labor is a different story.
In such circumstances democratic and autocratic models are fragile at best. Santiago demonstrates that violent and determined groups are easily able to disrupt a state past its breaking point. Even without the sacking of Fordville its questionable if New America could have survived its internal conflicts.
Autocratic rule also isn't a magic cure. If you rule by the sword you die by the sword. History is full of tinpot dictators who lost control and their lives to ambitious underlings.
Ultimately it comes down to luck. If you have a stable leadership for a few decades there might be time to develop the necessary traditions for a peaceful transition of power.
Nation building in such a desperate ISOT is a slippery slope. If you ISOT a sufficiently large region it shouldn't be a problem to maintain modern forms of governance. A small, scattered and traumatized uptime population that is suddenly deprieved of basic necessities and subjected to backbreaking labor is a different story.
In such circumstances democratic and autocratic models are fragile at best. Santiago demonstrates that violent and determined groups are easily able to disrupt a state past its breaking point. Even without the sacking of Fordville its questionable if New America could have survived its internal conflicts.
Autocratic rule also isn't a magic cure. If you rule by the sword you die by the sword. History is full of tinpot dictators who lost control and their lives to ambitious underlings.
Ultimately it comes down to luck. If you have a stable leadership for a few decades there might be time to develop the necessary traditions for a peaceful transition of power.
Flawed democracies, once they get even minor-ly off the ground, are MUCH more stable in the medium and long terms than any form of government other than straight democracies. There is a reason that the United States has faced no major mass death from famine, natural disaster or other crisis Among Its !Citizen! Population, despite for the vast majority of its history being a very flawed democracy, even for its citizens compared to modern standards.
I think it is quite likely that with such a firm base of democratic norms among the people, even shattered as they are, that democratic rule will inherit this earth. Will it be up to modern standards? no. but it will be there.
EDIT: The question then is, will the small successor nations have enough secure identity, military and societies to prevent majority unification once the second era of crisis starts happening. I must admit I am skeptical that most of them will.
New America used very idealistic version of democracy, simplified version good for stories supplied to children. A good way to remind everyone that CIA, NSA, FBI and spies/infiltration of radical organisations exist for a reason. Of course, even with such a toolkit New!USA would lack modern electronic surveillance and training of agents, or hell, even enough paper.
Flawed democracies, once they get even minor-ly off the ground, are MUCH more stable in the medium and long terms than any form of government other than straight democracies. There is a reason that the United States has faced no major mass death from famine, natural disaster or other crisis Among Its Citizen Population, despite for the vast majority of its history being a very flawed democracy, even for its citizens compared to modern standards.
I think it is quite likely that with such a firm base of democratic norms among the people, even shattered as they are, that democratic rule will inherit this earth. Will it be up to modern standards? no. but it will be there.
Flawed democracy is a very flexible term. Especially if we look at the South...
Leadership that is not based on bloodlines but on some form of (ideally somewhat meritocratic) peaceful popular approval process is certainly superior in the long run. Most of the stable models won't be very democratic though. If you limit the franchise beyond a certain point I would hesitate to call it even a flawed democracy.
Currently the Tucsonans are the only population group that really matters in terms of stability. So for the next few decades the guys with the guns and the steel are going to form a quasi-aristocracy that every ruler has to please. The best way to achieve that is of course some form of democracy for the uptimers.
Spartan , Confederate or Roman LARPERs (sadly) are a perfectly viable model due to the gigantic disparity between the Tucsonans and the downtimers.
Things will get interesting once the downtimers have catched up somewhat. The wannabe Spartans might consider a more democratic approach when the Helots start shooting back.
Leadership that is not based on bloodlines but on some form of (ideally somewhat meritocratic) peaceful popular approval process is certainly superior in the long run. Most of the stable models won't be very democratic though. If you limit the franchise beyond a certain point I would hesitate to call it even a flawed democracy.
I am going to disagree with you there, sorry . Partially because I come at this form a viewpoint focused on robustness to crisis, ability to respond to mass death and long term competency correction. Purely Accountable governments are, in the long run, better than Purely Competent Governments. Very often the *benefits of pure competency and the competency itself* are both exaggerated.
EDIT: ** Felt this was more in line with my thoughts on it. Also changed the emoji
. Partially because I come at this form a viewpoint focused on robustness to crisis, ability to respond to mass death and long term competency correction. Purely Accountable governments are, in the long run, better than Purely Competent Governments. Very often the *benefits of pure competency and the competency itself* are both exaggerated.