Okay so I think I nailed down what happened.
At the end of the 1986th year of the Third Age, the last refugees from the Old Kingdom arrived:
At that point we had a Population of 7 living in Ost Falasuin:
Put together, this means we had a total Population of 9 at the end of TA 1986.
However if we look at this post where Sayle amended our Population just after the TA 1990 update:
@Sayle was working with a total figure of 8 Population including the immigrants. This means that with the three going away and two growing back, we would be at 7; whereas with a figure of 9 Population we would be at 8.
This doesn't seem to have travelled downward into any of the districts being unmanned- our districts appear to have functioned in all respects as if we had 8 Population after. We know this since we had two Small Mercantile Districts, Docks, a Farm, Fishing, Pasture, and two Logging Camps in TA 1990, all of which were manned and running, all of which require Population (1). The Small Mercantile Districts both being active is reflected in our income at the end of TA 1990 as well.
So it basically seems to be a small error in only the total Population figure then which got carried forward: our Population should be one higher than it is. This is actually an error in our favour, as well, our Growth has been consistently higher than it should have been for about a decade at this point, because there's been Population (1) who we've been getting labour from but haven't been feeding. Over the decade this actually amounts to a little over 15 Growth; slightly more than a population uptick's worth.
At the end of the 1986th year of the Third Age, the last refugees from the Old Kingdom arrived:
From the vote, it seems like they numbered Population (2).The end of TA 1986 is interesting for multiple reasons: the winter is more of a prolonged autumn than anything else, and snow never even touches the ground; the city expands to fill its housing capacity; and settlers from old Arthedain come down-river. Unexpectedly it was the winters of TA 1984 and 1985 that drove them to this, the privation and deaths that resulted from two successive winters of such harshness diminished their communities and made life challenging afterwards. Eventually they decided to take their chances with the new start at the mouth of the Brandywine, and made their way down to the mouth of the river over a challenging month.
This raises interesting questions, because not only does the city not have room for them unless another area is cleared for farming, but the abundance of potential workers raises some interesting possibilities. While you could fill up the city to capacity, even the only sparsely used mercantile district you constructed, you could also encourage them to move up one of the smaller tributaries of the Baranduin and towards the Blue Mountains, where they could quarry and open mines with plentiful resources.
[ ] Do not settle.
[ ] Send two population to settle the Blue Mountains (-14 Gold, +3 Stone, Pasture/Quarry/Housing)
[ ] Send three population to settle the Blue Mountains (-16 Gold, +3 Stone, +3 Metal, Farm/Quarry/Mine/Housing)
--[ ] Empty one of the logging camps.
--[ ] Empty the pasture.
--[ ] Empty the mercantile district.
At that point we had a Population of 7 living in Ost Falasuin:
Ost Falasuin
Population: 7
Prosperity: Poor/Average
Prestige: Provincial Town
Rule of Law: Strong
Military Strength: Weak/Average
Defenses: Minimal
Put together, this means we had a total Population of 9 at the end of TA 1986.
However if we look at this post where Sayle amended our Population just after the TA 1990 update:
You had 8 population, then you sent three away, then two grew back. So you should be at 7 population. I was just working off a population number that didn't include your immigrants. With that in mind, I've added four gold to your total and your docks are now active.
You'll have to give me a few hours to make the shipbuilding options, though.
@Sayle was working with a total figure of 8 Population including the immigrants. This means that with the three going away and two growing back, we would be at 7; whereas with a figure of 9 Population we would be at 8.
This doesn't seem to have travelled downward into any of the districts being unmanned- our districts appear to have functioned in all respects as if we had 8 Population after. We know this since we had two Small Mercantile Districts, Docks, a Farm, Fishing, Pasture, and two Logging Camps in TA 1990, all of which were manned and running, all of which require Population (1). The Small Mercantile Districts both being active is reflected in our income at the end of TA 1990 as well.
So it basically seems to be a small error in only the total Population figure then which got carried forward: our Population should be one higher than it is. This is actually an error in our favour, as well, our Growth has been consistently higher than it should have been for about a decade at this point, because there's been Population (1) who we've been getting labour from but haven't been feeding. Over the decade this actually amounts to a little over 15 Growth; slightly more than a population uptick's worth.