Costs us two days of farm food or 0.4 Food if we don't clear the Red Mold (plus the value of a second action slot doing something else, which is 10.5 progress ~ 1 Food), versus the equivalent of 0.233 Food and some increased risk if we get further bad events to use Beetle Charge.
Depends on what it takes to clear the mold whether this is +ve expected value or not. But if it's an eight or a nine, which I'd assumed it was, then the chance of failing on a single roll is like 35-40%.
But as I said, we probably don't need to - if it's like, a 5 to get rid of it or something, then we've got a good chance of clearing it.
While I've got you here, would you mind a quick mechanics question? If a counterattack roll is a draw, who wins? (Apologies if this is in a previous post and I've just forgotten.)