(Alternate History) The Second Sino-Japanese War

Let's try this. Strengthen the salient, save the 4th Army from getting routed with 1st Army's help, get defensive line set up to prepare for future attacks on Chinese railroads. Save the 3rd Army from getting pierced via Imperial Guard reinforcements.

[X] Plan Hold the Salient
-[X] Have the First reinforce the Fourth! Push back the militia as they advance, the Third will have to manage!
-[X] The Second will continue to hold its position while reinforcing the Fourth.
-[X] The Third will have to manage, there's nothing we can do.
-[X] Have the Fourth abandon the salient and fall back. Entrench!
-[X] The Fourth must hold the Salient! Find favourable terrain and entrench!
-[X] The Garrison will have to hold, reroute the Imperial Guard to Pyongyang and give it to the...
--[X] Third
You are having the Fourth withdraw and leaving the First to do all the fighting. You are also leaving the third with a weak right flank that is right next to the headquarters for that corp. The 22nd could charge through there and break our army it needs to be reinforced and the left flank is secured since the first helped pushed that line away. Moving the Imperial Guard here means the port can not break out. That means the Navy can not deploy to support any other front either. Your plan at best leaves us back in the original position with the gap reduced. At worst we lose one corp before the Imperial Guard arrives and the rest of our forces become exposed.
 
[X] Plan Fall Back, Send In The Guard
-[X] Have the First abandon the salient and fall back. The First will aid the Third in defending against attacks from the XXIInd and the Fourth against the IXth.
-[X] The Second will continue to hold its position.
-[X]
The Third has to hold! Weaken its western flank to reinforce the east!
-[X] Have the Fourth abandon the salient and fall back. Entrench!
-[X] Order the Dairen Garrison and its reinforcements to launch an attack on the XIXth, hopefully relieving pressure from your front.
 
[X] Plan Fall Back, Send In The Guard
-[X] Have the First abandon the salient and fall back. The First will aid the Third in defending against attacks from the XXIInd and the Fourth against the IXth.
-[X] The Second will continue to hold its position.
-[X]
The Third has to hold! Weaken its western flank to reinforce the east!
-[X] Have the Fourth abandon the salient and fall back. Entrench!
-[X] Order the Dairen Garrison and its reinforcements to launch an attack on the XIXth, hopefully relieving pressure from your front.
This plan makes us lose what we have gained. That and completely giving up the initiative will not go over well. It makes us look weak and indecisive if we switch to something so different after the first set back. We need to keep the people back home happy and make them retain confidence in our ability. Giving up everything we've gained and hunkering down now portrays the opposite of confidence or ability.
 
March 9th, 1915 - Korean Resistance Movement / Intelligence Report
Interlude: Korean Resistance Movement/Intelligence Report

A number of things could be said about Yinchang, but not that he was uncultured. On the eve of March 7th, 1915, he could be found in a tea house in Chongjin, drinking tea with his friend, former student and fellow general, Changgeng.

Park Ji-sung has been keeping his ears open from the moment the he saw a Manchu prince walk through the door, and isn't at all surprised to hear that the two men are in fact the commanding officer of the nearby Chinese armies, IX and XXII. While he doesn't dare stay close enough to overhear after delivering the tea and confectionaries, he does catch a few things of note, which he commits to memory. Park Ji-sung knows his cousin, the local mailman, knows how to get messages to the army in Korea, and he doesn't hesitate for a moment to head straight to his uncle's house. By the time he arrives, it's pitch black outside, but a knock on the door and a short chat with uncle Lee-chun sets the message on its way.

To: General Hirano Saburou, Commander of the Expeditionary Army in Korea
Time: 18:00, 8th of March

Our friends in occupied territory are working hard to weasel what they can out of drunkards and fools, and they have confirmed reports of Changgeng as the commander of the Korean IXth army. It seems to consist mostly of militia, but as a commander Changgeng is a crafty man and a former member of Yinchang's own general staff.

Further, we have reports that the uprising in Guangzhou has been suppressed by local militia and military police, but a few shipments of Lebel rifles from the French concession were partially intercepted and stolen from by the local insurgents. Yuan Shikai is reportedly furious. We can also report that trains seem to be arriving from the Russian railway to Vladivostok with supplies of unknown sorts for the Chinese XXIInd.

Sincerely,
Major General Park Seung-hwan, Commander of the Korean Forces under General Hirano
 
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That is quite the problem. I was hoping that the Triple Alliance would be keeping Russia's attention entirely westward but I guess that would be far too generous. We're absolutely still on Russia's shit list for handing them their ass a decade ago and this would be a good opportunity for a little bit of revenge. Aside from just the general vengeance of supporting China because they're fighting us, Nicky II may still have colonial interests in Korea which the Chinese would absolutely be willing to compromise on in exchange for support. On the other hand by supporting China, since Russia no longer has any significant concessions in China unlike France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, its possible that those three may be more amenable to supporting us since Russia would seem to be stirring the pot by backing a regime that is in part held up by the same sort of sentiments that led to the Boxer Rebellion.
 
Great now the Russians are getting involved. It is not like they can provide much though their industry and rail network is pretty much trash at this point. But them backing the Chinese is even more reason to strengthen the right flank and draw as many forces away with a break out lead by the Imperial Guard at our port. The Russians are really thinking short term here though. The moment the Chinese are done with us they will turn on the Russians and unlike Japan, the Chinese do outnumber the Russians badly.
 
That is quite the problem. I was hoping that the Triple Alliance would be keeping Russia's attention entirely westward but I guess that would be far too generous. We're absolutely still on Russia's shit list for handing them their ass a decade ago and this would be a good opportunity for a little bit of revenge. Aside from just the general vengeance of supporting China because they're fighting us, Nicky II may still have colonial interests in Korea which the Chinese would absolutely be willing to compromise on in exchange for support. On the other hand by supporting China, since Russia no longer has any significant concessions in China unlike France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, its possible that those three may be more amenable to supporting us since Russia would seem to be stirring the pot by backing a regime that is in part held up by the same sort of sentiments that led to the Boxer Rebellion.
On the matter of concessions, the Russian Empire got fairly sizable territory at China's expense in fairly recent history. They re-expanded out to the Amur river where they'd been a couple centuries prior and then clear on to Primorye in treaties concluded in the 1850s and 1860s. This meant a drastic reduction to the provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin, and so the Qing emperors started opening the area to Han Chinese settlement on an unprecedented scale to ward off further losses. Previously, the official position had been to ban such settlement so that the Qing could have a backup 'Manchu homeland' in the three northeastern provinces (they did not use the term Manchuria, which was a Japanese invention) to retreat to and carry on in if the Han Chinese revolted and kicked them out.

Granted, those relatively desolate regions lost not having been so populated beforehand puts them at a lower priority to recover than the treaty ports.
 
On the matter of concessions, the Russian Empire got fairly sizable territory at China's expense in fairly recent history. They re-expanded out to the Amur river where they'd been a couple centuries prior and then clear on to Primorye in treaties concluded in the 1850s and 1860s. This meant a drastic reduction to the provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin, and so the Qing emperors started opening the area to Han Chinese settlement on an unprecedented scale to ward off further losses. Previously, the official position had been to ban such settlement so that the Qing could have a backup 'Manchu homeland' in the three northeastern provinces (they did not use the term Manchuria, which was a Japanese invention) to retreat to and carry on in if the Han Chinese revolted and kicked them out.

Granted, those relatively desolate regions lost not having been so populated beforehand puts them at a lower priority to recover than the treaty ports.

I think its important to distinguish between the economically oriented and separately administrated nature of the concessions like Hong Kong or Qingdao, both of which are still by a titanic margin inhabited by some variety of Chinese, as compared to the Peking concessions to Russia, which is at this point administrated like any other piece of Russian territory and also populated primarily by Russians. These are fringe territories on the very outskirts with very poor chances of recovery due to the crucial nature of Vladivostok to Russia, and even if those ambitions do still exist, which I doubt as Russia serves as a good counterbalance to Japan, for our purposes, it is the treaty ports which are the most blatantly visible and important as well as potentially viable pieces of territory to reclaim.
 
I think its important to distinguish between the economically oriented and separately administrated nature of the concessions like Hong Kong or Qingdao, both of which are still by a titanic margin inhabited by some variety of Chinese, as compared to the Peking concessions to Russia, which is at this point administrated like any other piece of Russian territory and also populated primarily by Russians. These are fringe territories on the very outskirts with very poor chances of recovery due to the crucial nature of Vladivostok to Russia, and even if those ambitions do still exist, which I doubt as Russia serves as a good counterbalance to Japan, for our purposes, it is the treaty ports which are the most blatantly visible and important as well as potentially viable pieces of territory to reclaim.
I probably should have been more explicit in saying it like this in the second part of my post, you're absolutely correct on the relative importance those cities hold both economically and culturally as well as the ease of their recovery.
We should support anti-Tsarist revolutionaries in Russia.
Which ones? There are a lot of them and they often despise each other. Also the Entente may take umbrage to weakening Russia in WW1, they don't want anything that will take them out of the war with Germany and allow for those forces to be concentrated on the west.
 
About what I expected from the Russians, still looking for payback from 1904-5. With the XXIInd's back to the Russian border and receiving supplies from them, they're in no danger of being cut off. If we push then across the border, then legally, they need to be interned until the end of the war, but the Russians will probably skirt the legality by releasing them back to China. The only solution is to fight a decisive battle against a prepared and numerically superior foe.

Unless we allow the 3rd Corps' right flank to "collapse" and let the Chinese "break out" to the South. Keep them hemmed up against the coast, and then they run into entrenched reinforcements. Once they are in this new pocket, cut their line of communication near the Russian border. Then their backs are to the sea, and we can actually starve them out.

Ideally, I'd have the 2nd along the Yalu remain defensive, and pull some of their stronger divisions for a concentrated assault force to break the Chinese flank near the headwaters of the Yalu. Then, if we could screen them from the IXth, the 4th Corps could race for the Yellow Sea and cut off the peninsula.

Not enough divisions. There's never enough divisions. Actually, aren't Japanese divisions hilariously over-sized? Something like 20k-25k men? Wehrmacht divisions were 15-16k men, but that included non-combat troops and logistics. Red Army divisions were 11-12k men, but had more combat troops, since they kicked non-combat and logistical units up to corps and army level. Maybe it's something we can work towards post-war.
 
About what I expected from the Russians
We're absolutely still on Russia's shit list
Great now the Russians are getting involved.
I want to point out that you A) don't know what nationality these trains (i.e. they might be Russian or Chinese, which imply different things) have, and B) it might be carrying medical supplies etc. which Russia must allow by the Geneva convention to pass through their territory.

Not, of course, to say that Russia doesn't have you on her shitlist, because she absolutely does, but I will caution that that may not be what you think it is.
 
I want to point out that you A) don't know what nationality these trains (i.e. they might be Russian or Chinese, which imply different things) have, and B) it might be carrying medical supplies etc. which Russia must allow by the Geneva convention to pass through their territory.

Not, of course, to say that Russia doesn't have you on her shitlist, because she absolutely does, but I will caution that that may not be what you think it is.
please as if the 1910s nations care about things like actually following the conventions. Or as if they are above using civilian and medical shipments to war materials. That is the exact thing that they all did during both WW. They just lied and used it as excuses to get war declarations
 
please as if the 1910s nations care about things like actually following the conventions. Or as if they are above using civilian and medical shipments to war materials. That is the exact thing that they all did during both WW. They just lied and used it as excuses to get war declarations
Oh, they absolutely don't give a damn. The question is whether they would risk a war or not, without their navy there.

Edit: well, let me rephrase that: they care to the extent that it would be a bad look if they got caught doing it. There's still plenty of other factors though.
 
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[X] Plan Double Envelopment
-[X] First
--The First shall push the salient eastward before falling upon the unentrenched parts of the XXIInd Chinese
-[X] Second
--[X] Hold until forces from the Chinese 4th are drawn away to the fighting at Dairen
-[X] Third
--[X] The Third will have to manage, there's nothing we can do.
-[X] Fourth
--[X] Hold the Salient and keep the enemy at bay while the First Pushes in on the XXIInd
-[X] Order the Dairen Garrison and its reinforcements to launch an attack on the XIXth, hopefully relieving pressure from your front.



Basically what i have in mind is a rather risky manouever that might pay of quite substantially. Instead of abandoning or simply holding the line, we let the fourth hold for now and entrench, while the first circles around that river and then breaks through the few division of the Ninth (to my understanding they are the ones protecting the salient thus they are all along it) into the unprotected back of the XXIInd.
The madman wants to bait his army? well bait has been taken.

If this pays off the 1st and third will be in a position to envelop the entire XXIInd and all its 200.000 (300.000?) men in one fell swoop. This depends largely upon the third holding, hopefully long enough for the Imperial Guard to arrive. If it fails it of course means not only the fourth but also the first will be enveloped and the third will probably have been broken...

But yeah just holding will gain us nothing in this war, we need to make some headway and enveloping the XXIInd will give us some much needed breathing space...and take away a lot of those Lebel Rifles.
[X] Have the First and Fourth abandon the salient and fall back. The Second and Third will continue to hold their positions. The Fourth will defend against the IXth and the First will support both the Third and the Fourth in their defense. Order the Dairen Garrison and its reinforcements to launch an attack on the XIXth, hopefully relieving pressure from your front.
[X] Plan Hold the Salient
[X] Plan Hold the Salient
[X] Plan Hold the Salient
[X] Plan Hold the Salient
[X] Plan Fall Back, Send In The Guard
-[X] Have the First abandon the salient and fall back. The First will aid the Third in defending against attacks from the XXIInd and the Fourth against the IXth.
-[X] The Second will continue to hold its position.
-[X]
The Third has to hold! Weaken its western flank to reinforce the east!
-[X] Have the Fourth abandon the salient and fall back. Entrench!
-[X] Order the Dairen Garrison and its reinforcements to launch an attack on the XIXth, hopefully relieving pressure from your front.

Can I convince you to vote for my plan. We cannot afford to leave the weakened right flank next to the headquarters and pulling back from the salient which the other plans are doing gives up everything we have won so far. Plus we need to break out of the port and link up our forces to surround the Chinese across from the 2nd.

Right now is not the time to run away and cower we have won on one front it is time to win on the other fronts and hurt the Chinese. They want us to pull back and not attack because time is on their side. We need victories or else we will lose support and will be crushed under numbers.
 
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*looks at Sun Yat-sen*

I have the feeling time is more on our side to be honest.
How so we have no guarantee that this will be over soon or that china is going to fall apart anytime soon either. One of the best ways to unify a nation is to have an outside enemy which we provide and their numbers means they can outlast us if we try to go for defensive tactics and stances.
 
Also the Entente may take umbrage to weakening Russia in WW1, they don't want anything that will take them out of the war with Germany and allow for those forces to be concentrated on the west.
Hate to break this to you, but WW1 has not started in this timeline.

The Western powers are all free to meddle and intervene as they see fit.

Indeed, a driver in Austria didn't take a wrong turn, so Franz Ferdinand never got shot. The German attache is also to Korea.
 
Hate to break this to you, but WW1 has not started in this timeline.

The Western powers are all free to meddle and intervene as they see fit.
Not really. Yes the war didn't start in 1914 but that is not going to last. WW1 was and still is inevitable. The treaties and power play they are all involved in make peace impossible. The war will start eventually just at a later date and with another trigger.
 
Not really. Yes the war didn't start in 1914 but that is not going to last. WW1 was and still is inevitable. The treaties and power play they are all involved in make peace impossible. The war will start eventually just at a later date and with another trigger.
If you define "WW1" as "A war involving the United Kingdom, France and Russia on one side and Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire on the other", then it is very much avoidable.

There won't be peace in Europe forever just because Franz Ferdinand didn't get assassinated, but describing the scenario as inevitable seems premature. The network of alliances that triggered the OTL nightmare required a very specific set of circumstances, after all.


But as usual, a lot of what you're seeing in your quest is because of the political maneuvers in Europe - French guns in China to raise money for loans to Russia for their railway building, intended to keep them facing towards Germany. German advisors in Korea to keep Russia fearing the "yellow peril" etc. and a Russo-Japanese War 2: Electric Bogaloo. Russia itself torn between securing and modernising its heartland and getting revenge on its nemesis in the east, torn between French loans and its desire for a secure eastern border (not to mention the riches of Manchuria, which admittedly are mostly undiscovered as of 1915).
 
If you define "WW1" as "A war involving the United Kingdom, France and Russia on one side and Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire on the other", then it is very much avoidable.

There won't be peace in Europe forever just because Franz Ferdinand didn't get assassinated, but describing the scenario as inevitable seems premature. The network of alliances that triggered the OTL nightmare required a very specific set of circumstances, after all.
Not really it was an excuse that they all jumped on because none of them realised what modern war would do. There have been studies and it is almost universally agreed that WW1 or a war like it was inevitable with the players involved at the time. It was a ticking time bomb and only radical changes in policy and leadership for all involved parties could have stopped it. Sorry but the fact is that it would have happened one way or another.
 
There have been studies and it is almost universally agreed that WW1 or a war like it was inevitable with the players involved at the time.

This is nonsense. It is not almost universally agreed that WWI was inevitable even if there is a common misperception amongst the uninformed that it was. There will obviously be wars, but they don't have to be on the scale of a world war.

For example, no big wars with several countries on all sides kick off whilst a smaller one between a couple of countries do (such one between China and Japan for example). The other countries take note of how destructive and deadly the war is and try to avoid getting involved in one themselves or if they do, they limit how much they push each other to mutually avoid destruction in their lands, treating it as a series of skirmishes and limited battles to get the upper hands in the negotiations.

It is very plausible to avoid a world war in this setting for the next decade or two.
 
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