(Alternate History) The Second Sino-Japanese War

Something to note for Japan is that in the Russo-Japanese war, Japan was on the verge of bankruptcy at the end of the war and only a very effective overseas financing campaign and the remarkable will for austerity amongst the populace prevented a collapse of Japanese financial institutions. This is part of why Japan was so dissatisfied with the Treaty of Portsmouth, as the indemnity was dropped in exchange for South Sakhalin, not even all of it! At least if they got the whole island they'd find a fair bit of oil in the north part later.

Japan is certainly more financially healthy now then at the equivalent time OTL, but that doesn't change the fact that there's something of a timer on us to get at least some sort of result. I would wager a year and a half if the other great powers are indifferent, and perhaps double that if London and New York look favorably upon us for purposes of loans.
 
fine ill go with that one instead then:

[X] Plan Die on this Hill
-[X] First
--[X] Have the First reinforce the Fourth! Push back the militia as they advance, the Third will have to manage!
-[X] Second
--[X] Hold until forces from the Chinese 4th are drawn away to the fighting at Dairen
-[X] Third
--[X] The Third has to hold! Weaken its western flank to reinforce the east!
-[X] Fourth
--[X] Entrench on the current position and alongside the 1st push back the militia.
-[X] Order the Dairen Garrison and its reinforcements to launch an attack on the XIXth, hopefully relieving pressure from your front.


although i dont believe that holding or retreating will gain us anything or improve our situation. China is doing some risky manouvers so we should instead push for an encirclement, but yeah, this is still better than the other plans.
 
[X] Plan Die on this Hill
-[X] First
--[X] Have the First reinforce the Fourth! Push back the militia as they advance, the Third will have to manage!
-[X] Second
--[X] Hold until forces from the Chinese 4th are drawn away to the fighting at Dairen
-[X] Third
--[X] The Third has to hold! Weaken its western flank to reinforce the east!
-[X] Fourth
--[X] Entrench on the current position and alongside the 1st push back the militia.
-[X] Order the Dairen Garrison and its reinforcements to launch an attack on the XIXth, hopefully relieving pressure from your front.
 
I think I'll change my vote.

[X] Plan Die on this Hill
 
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March 18th, 1915 - Aeroplanes arrive, IJN offers support, the Imperial Guard strikes
09:00, Pyongyang HQ, March 18th, 1915


Maurice Farman MF. 7 on Pyongyang Airfield, Korea


Nieuport IV taking off from Tokorozawa Airfield, Japan

(Positions and change in occupation from March 9th to March 18th)

(Map with Railways and Positions, change from March 9th to March 18th)

Whatever you were expecting from Lieutenant General Nakano, a letter pleading for reinforcements at your earliest possible convenience was not the worst it could be. Yinchang was apparently putting military lessons he had received in Germany to good use, and had managed to outflank a salient on Nakano's eastern side, attacking from three sides onto the fortified mountain position.

The Lieutenant General had hoped to hold the position despite its salient nature because of its importance to the safety of the mining operations in neighbouring Pungsan. So far, Nakano's forces were getting pushed back, hundreds of meters a day, but nonetheless keeping control of the mountain. Losses have been high, as many as 523 Japanese men have bravely fallen, Nakano writes, and they have inflicted around 1237 casualties in return. Though Nakano is requesting reinforcements for this, you know that the mountain is likely to be lost before any reinforcements can arrive.

Better news is that the eastern flank's 21st Infantry Division has, at least temporarily, halted the advance of the Chinese XXIInd army, and repulsed their assault on their entrenched position. The Korean 1st Cavalry is moving up to cover the entrenched units' flank, but the danger is far from over, as intelligence reports Chinese reserves are swarming down the coast. They report losses of 147 to Chinese estimated 500.

The IJN is offering naval support for defensive operations in eastern Korea, and, as a letter from Admiral Nakamura informs you, Marshal-Admiral Togo is offering his best man, Admiral Kato, with a fleet led by the IJN Katori, a pre-dreadnought battleship, alongside several cruisers and two destroyer squadrons. They would, however, like to know some particulars about said support…

The salient, on the other hand, had better news. Bitter fighting over mere meters of ground had been ongoing for a week, but finally things had swung your way, and the advancing Chinese units had been pushed back. In some ways, this made things more difficult for you, as what little roads had been in the rural area you were fighting in were now cratered by artillery fire, and half the landscape had been turned into a muddy hellscape after a rainy couple of days. Offensives remained as bloody as always, and the estimations were that you had lost 1204 to the Chinese 1800. You were all too familiar with such scenes, but you nonetheless took heart at the successful offensive. There was now a decision to be made, either to stabilise the frontline of the salient, or attempt a counteroffensive.

With that out of your mind,.you focus on the letter you've received from Prince Ka'nin, the adopted uncle of the Emperor. He tells you that he has taken command of the newly created Fifth corps at Dairen, at the request of his nephew. Formally, the Kanto-shu Garrison will be under his command, but in reality the garrison would be under the command of General Fukushima, the current Governor-General of Dairen. The Governor-General has stated that he will aid in securing Liaotung, but his troops are limited, and his priority is the security of Dairen, including keeping order of the province.

Prince Ka´nin reports immense success in his letter as well, having arrived at the 12th, pushing back the Chinese forces on the 14th, advancing three quarters of the way up Liaotung by the 17th, and, as of the writing of the letter, attacking into entrenched militia reserves of the Chinese XIXth army with good success. Before the continued assault, losses were 79 Japanese to 685 Chinese.

Good news also arrive on the reinforcements front, the Koreans have already finished up the airfield, and your scouting aircraft (Nieuport IV and Farman MF.7) have landed, but still need some maintenance and parts. Hopefully they'll be in fighting shape soon, but even before that, they might be able to do some scouting.

Reports from the Second seem to indicate that parts of the IVth near Dandong are pulling back, presumably to reinforce the XIXth after the beating it's taken from the Imperial Guard, but the amount of troops withdrawn seem to be low, probably because troops in the south are moving back north after having suppressed an uprising in Guangdong, around Guangzhou, which holds the major train route north from both Beihai and Hong Kong and a stronghold of republicans like Sun Yat-sen and Wang Jingwei.

You frown, and realise you need to correct the maps. "Suzuki, maps!"

From largest to smallest:
1x Katori-class B (IJN Katori) (~16,500t)
1x Peresviet-class B (IJN Sagami) (~12,500t)
1x Imperator Alexander II-class B (IJN Iki) (~9,500t)
2x Kasuga-class CA (IJN Kasuga, IJN Nisshin) (~7,600t)
1x Tone-class CL (IJN Tone) (~4,100t)
1x Tsushima-class CA (IJN) (~3,400t)
2x Asakaze Destroyer Squadron (8x~380t)

Vote by Plan!

[X] Fleet Support
-[X] Position offensively, risking an incident with the Russians is worth it if we can support our troops on the ground. (IJA Officers will like this, IJN Officers will like this, Nationalists will like this)
-[X] Position defensively, no point risking and incident, and our current position in the east is sufficient to hold. (IJN Officers will like this, IJA Officers will remember this)
-[X] No support needed, the glory belongs to the IJA! (IJA Officers will love this, IJN Officers will heavily dislike this)

Reinforcements:
You are getting two divisions which consist of...

[X] Reinforcements
-[X] 1x Infantry, with attached artillery and pioneer brigades
-[X] 1x Infantry, with attached artillery and extra MGs
-[X] 1x Infantry, with attached pioneer brigades and extra MGs
-[X] 1x Infantry, with extra MGs x2
-[X] 1x Experimental Armoured Car (+???)
(You can choose any combination of these you want, including two of the same, except the experimental units)

[X] First Army Corps
-[X] The First should hold the eastern side of the salient, focus on preventing offensives from there!
-[X] The First should attack in the west, trying to push the flank of the IVth army!
-[X] The First should attack east, put pressure on the IXth and the XXIInd!
[X] Second Army Corps
-[X] Some divisions are retreating from the IVth, now's your chance!
-[X] It's not enough of a gap, you can't push across Yalu now and risk overstretching. Hold position!
[X] Third Army Corps
-[X] The Third's eastern flank is achieving something but is still vulnerable, while the centre is folding. Now's the time to launch an attack from the east and take pressure from the centre!
-[X] The Third's eastern flank is vulnerable, reinforce that position, the centre can fall back and re-entrench further back.
-[X] The Third's centre is buckling badly, use the western flank to reinforce, the weakened position will have to be guarded
[X] Fourth Army Corps
-[X] Charge and attack! The salient is widened, now is your chance!
-[X] Hold the western side, overextending now could be fatal!
[X] Fifth Army Corps
-[X] Charge and attack! You're thin on divisions, but the Imperial Guard backed up by cavalry charges have proven to be extremely effective at taking ground.
-[X] Hold position, you've got another idea...

[X] Imperial Japanese Army Air Service
-[X] IJAAS should try to get off the ground immediately for scouting purposes, even if things like machine guns or bombs haven't arrived!
-[X] IJAAS should try and make sure they're outfitted before they take off.

[X] Write-in
 
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We got new weaponry and naval gun! Now is the time to force the East and West to fallback!

[X] Plan Twin Strike
-[X] Fleet Support
--[X] Position offensively, risking an incident with the Russians is worth it if we can support our troops on the ground. (IJA Officers will like this, IJN Officers will like this, Nationalists will like this)
-[X] Reinforcements
--[X] 1x Infantry, with attached pioneer brigades and extra MGs
--[X] 1x Experimental Armoured Car (+???)
-[X] First Army Corps
--[X] The First should hold the eastern side of the salient, focus on preventing offensives from there!
-[X] Second Army Corps
--[X] Some divisions are retreating from the IVth, now's your chance!
-[X] Third Army Corps
--[X] The Third's eastern flank is achieving something but is still vulnerable, while the centre is folding. Now's the time to launch an attack from the east and take pressure from the centre!
-[X] Fourth Army Corps
--[X] Hold the western side, overextending now could be fatal!
-[X] Fifth Army Corps
--[X] Charge and attack! You're thin on divisions, but the Imperial Guard backed up by cavalry charges have proven to be extremely effective at taking ground.
-[X] Imperial Japanese Army Air Service
--[X] IJAAS should try to get off the ground immediately for scouting purposes, even if things like machine guns or bombs haven't arrived!
 
[X] Plan HanEmpire

[] Fleet Support
-[] Position offensively, risking an incident with the Russians is worth it if we can support our troops on the ground. (IJA Officers will like this, IJN Officers will like this, Nationalists will like this)

[] Reinforcements
-[] 1x Infantry, with extra MGs x2
-[] 1x Experimental Armoured Car (+???)

[] First Army Corps
-[] The First should hold the eastern side of the salient, focus on preventing offensives from there!
[] Second Army Corps
-[] Some divisions are retreating from the IVth, now's your chance!
[] Third Army Corps
-[] The Third's eastern flank is achieving something but is still vulnerable, while the centre is folding. Now's the time to launch an attack from the east and take pressure from the centre!
[] Fourth Army Corps
-[] Charge and attack! The salient is widened, now is your chance!
[] Fifth Army Corps
-[] Charge and attack! You're thin on divisions, but the Imperial Guard backed up by cavalry charges have proven to be extremely effective at taking ground.

[] Imperial Japanese Army Air Service
-[] IJAAS should try to get off the ground immediately for scouting purposes, even if things like machine guns or bombs haven't arrived!
 
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[X] Plan HanEmpire

Screw it giving up the initiative is death in war. Let's hit them while we have a chance. The only thing I would caution against @HanEmpire is the Salient maybe don't try to extend it further and simply hold while the other fronts hit and try to expand.
 
Personally i'm hesitant to push 4th before we got better supply via railroad. The infantry with pioneer brigades should be great for either improving mobility or make river crossing easier.
 
Calling vote 15:00 CET, 09:00 EST Tomorrow.

Update might not come out on the weekend due to IRL stuff, but expect Tuesday at latest.
 
Interlude: Meeting Dr. Nakayama
Interlude: Meeting Dr. Nakayama


Dr. Nakayama
Note: This conversation actually takes place in English, as both yourself and the two speaking members of the party are fluent in the language.

"Ah, General Hirano, it's splendid to finally meet you! Our mutual friend has spoken at length about you, and only good things, I assure you!" You've long heard this man's name, and his friendly demeanour and solid voice is perhaps not what you expected from a man known far and wide in China as a disorderly troublemaker or revolutionary hero. He's wearing a fine suit, but probably one given to him since it seems a little stiff, as if though he's only worn it a handful of times.

"Dr. Nakayama, it's good to meet you as well, I've heard much the same about yourself. I hope your trip here wasn't overly distressing?" You ask, shaking his hand firmly, as two English speakers are wont to do.

"No, no, your friends in the navy are very talented. Did you know they sent a whole greeting party for my friends and I? Not a very formal one, of course, no suits, but slacks and dress shirts. They fit in very well, very good at blending in. Ah, I'm getting ahead of myself. Please, allow me to introduce my companions, Li Xiehe and his attendant, Chen." The man remains cheerful as he mentions what sounds like extraction from his homeland by a group of marines dressed as revolutionaries, and presents his friends, a no-nonsense military man younger than Dr. Nakayama himself, perhaps 30 years old, and a boy at half that age.

You greet them as you would your own men, and offer them tea in a fine tea house in Pyongyang. You get the impression that Dr. Nakayama is a very intelligent and charismatic man, with many connections to high-ranking, powerful and otherwise influential men in China, who he will speak of both fondly and casually. Li Xiehe, a man who was apparently caught up in the mess and had to flee the country, is clearly a serious, decently senior military officer, perhaps a Lt. Colonel. Chen, as an attendant, is mostly silent, speaking only when spoken to, and even then only in Chinese, seemingly in awe of the good doctor, as if he can't quite believe the whole situation.

Li Xiehe makes some comments about Manchuria, namely that the overall commander at Mukden in Shenyang is Duan Qirui, nicknamed the "Angel" of the Beiyang Army, who is allowing the Manchu Prince in charge of the XXIInd significant leeway. Apparently, there's been a lot of anti-Manchu revolts, and there's nasty racism peeking its head out in both the government of Yuan Shikai, who stomps it down ruthlessly and allows skilled Manchu officers to remain in the army, and in the republican movement, whose endless circular firing squads keep it divided on this point as well as on their other ideological differences. The previously unifying point, the need for the Manchu Qing dynasty to step down from the throne no longer a concern, racists and republicans now found each other to be unacceptable.

The good doctor and Li Xiehe both agree that Duan is probably responsible for the declaration of war in the first place, as he is known to be anti-Japanese, and particularly interested in the freeing of legation cities. Nakayama also mentions to you that an acquaintance of the group is looking to expand his influence in China, and is willing and able to lead a revolution. Apparently, Field Marshal Hiiragi has been supplying them with weapons for cheap, paid for by this acquaintance in full, and Li Xiehe seems amused at this, and mentions that they're officially being used as training equipment. The mustachioed military man also mentions that he, alongside more of his allies, are intending to land with a force made up of the many Chinese students in Japan and link of up with said acquaintance when the time is right. They expect Guangdong to welcome them once more, as the population is firmly republican. You make note of this, and comment that perhaps your own offensives could be coordinated with this, to force the maximum amount of stress unto the royalists. Soon the discussion devolves more into pleasantries , and you leave after exchanging pleasantries.
 
Seems like a good idea to coordinate the future attack to pressure the Chinese more. These tensions might be an opening as well. If we make the Manchu prince think that he has been forgotten or worse sent to lose and die it could cause him to pull out of rebel.
 
March 28th, 1915 - Imperial Guard Advances, First Air Bombing
13:00, Pyongyang HQ, March 28th, 1915


Map Changes 19-28th March (now with colours for each individual army/corps, green is rivers, black is railway lines)

Terrain Map
Brown = Hills
Beige = Plains
Grey = mountains
Metallic Blue = Urban
You stood bent over a table of maps with Lt. General Kawasaki next to you. The situation was in many ways dire, and in many ways triumphant. The General Staff and the newspapers in Tokyo, however, were unlikely to call whatever kind of sideways stalemate you had achieved anything but a defeat. The assaults at Yalu had failed to achieve anything despite many Chinese troops leaving their fortifications to head down south, where the 6 Imperial Guard brigades, supported by a division of cavalry and their own artillery corps, had managed to steamroll the entire XIXth Chinese army.

The Guard had shattered the assault and counter attacked a week prior, but were showing no signs of slowing down as Chinese forces were being swept aside by repeated tactical brilliance on the side of Prince Kan'in as well as an incredibly ferocious and disciplined group of soldiers.

The initial push had inflicted nearly five to one casualties on the Chinese Militia attempting to hold their ground, and the reinforcements had been ambushed by the Imperial Guard, killing an entire company in exchange for a single man who was shot while grenading a machine gun position. Summing the offensive up as a victory would be an understatement, as the Imperial Guard counted 233 casualties to around 1100, and had gained nearly 250 kilometres of ground in less than a month.

Now the main issue was that the Imperial Guard was holding so much territory that even with Governor-general Fukushima providing half his garrison as rear guard, they could barely safeguard their supply lines. Another 50 or 100 kilometres and they'd be at their limit. To some extent, it could be argued that part of the success was owed to the Second Army Corps for pinning down any additional reinforcements sent from the IVth, but the casualties had exceeded all expectations on that front.

About one fourth of all Japanese deaths in the entire war had taken place over the last 9 days, placing that number at over 20,000. It was grim, but you were achieving goals, even if not as spectacularly has High Command and the IJA officer corps wanted. Those two factions were already eyeing you for your decision to accept more naval support, a move that so far had yet to prove itself either way. The fleet was patrolling the coast, having arrived after the major offensives and counter offensives in range of the ship guns had taken place, but some of the off-shore artillery fire had been useful as the counter offensive had halted the newly reinforced eastern flank of the XXIInd.

It seemed every position you looked at on the main front had stalled. Chinese offensives across the Yalu had proven equally unsuccessful as your own, and while the IJAAS sortied against the Chinese troops on Yalu in support of the offensive, due to new and in some cases erroneously installed equipment, managed to achieve very little. Effect appears limited to hitting a small storage room in one of the trenches.

In the east you were both bashing your heads against the others' entrenched positions with extremely limited success, but more on the Chinese side than yours. You had managed to halt Yinchang's offensive on the eastern flank, and he had managed to gain some ground in the center. The Korean cavalry and infantry shoring up the flanks and the centre, respectively, are greatly helpful, and have proven themselves capable. On the other hand, you're still thin on divisions against the gargantuan force that seems to be marching down the coast, but hopefully your naval support will see your situation improve.

The Chinese Navy had sallied again, and the IJN patrols had not managed to sink any ships. Submarines had spotted the cruiser fleet moving south, and had moved to intercept them, but couldn't catch up before Formosa, where the cruisers had shelled the port for about twenty minutes before withdrawing when coming under fire from local patrol boats. As the Chinese fleet withdrew further west, the submarines lacked operational range to follow and had to return to Formosa, ultimately too slow to achieve their goal.

On the bright side, your troops from the mainland were arriving to reinforce…

VOTE BY PLAN

[X] Experimental Armoured Car Division
-[X] First army corps
-[X] Second army corps
-[X] Third army corps
-[X] Fourth army corps
-[X] Fifth army corps

[X] Infantry Division with Engineers & MGs
-[X] First army corps
-[X] Second army corps
-[X] Third army corps
-[X] Fourth army corps
-[X] Fifth army corps

For next week, you have an acquisitional budget of ¥500k

Each infantry must have 2 supporting brigades. Non-committed votes will lead to extra infantry and MGs by default. Vote twice on one option to double down on it.

[X] Infantry ¥112k
-[X] with supporting engineers ¥30k
-[X] with supporting artillery ¥50k
-[X] with supporting heavy artillery ¥90k
-[X] with extra infantry and MGs ¥60k

[X] Experimental Armoured Cars ¥220k

NEW:

[X] Mitsubishi IJAAS-4 "Kyu" Tactical Bomber (Squadron) ¥180k (comes with 4 25kg bombs and 2 MGs per plane)
[X] Mitsubishi IJAAS-4 "Hachi" Scout Aeroplane (Squadron) ¥81k (comes with a single 25kg bomb & 2 MGs per plane)

[X] First Army Corps
-[X] The First should hold the eastern side of the salient, focus on preventing offensives from there!
-[X] The First should attack in the west, trying to push the flank of the IVth army!
-[X] The First should attack east, put pressure on the IXth and the XXIInd!
-[X] Withdraw, the salient is strategically unsound! (IJA officers and Nationalists do not like this)
[X] Second Army Corps
-[X] Previous offensives across this river hasn't worked, but you plan to strike again! Beat them until they buckle!
-[X] Despite troops withdrawing, it's too heavily fortified. Hold position!
[X] Third Army Corps
-[X] The Third's eastern flank and the centre is in a tentatively stable position, reinforce them with troops from the west and renew the counter offensive! (weakens west)
-[X] The Third's position as a whole is not ideal, with stopgap measures preventing a Chinese breakthrough, but there's nothing you can do. Hold!
[X] Fourth Army Corps
-[X] Charge and attack, now is your chance!
-[X] Hold the western side, no movement is in your favour.
-[X] Withdraw, the salient is strategically unsound! (IJA officers and Nationalists do not like this)
[X] Fifth Army Corps
-[X] Charge and attack! You're even thinner on divisions than last time, but the Imperial Guard backed up by cavalry charges have proven to be extremely effective at taking ground.
-[X] Hold position, you've got another idea…
 
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Screw the salient, it's a trap. It's not getting us anywhere and it's letting the Chinese leverage their numerical superiority against us. Tighten the front and let them come at us.

The Liaodong Peninsula holds some promise though. If we push some more we could get the Chinese High Command to siphon troops away from other theatres, like from Eastern Manchuria (thus letting us entrench with time to spare) or from Southern China (which is gearing up for revolution).

[X] Plan HanEmpire

[] Experimental Armoured Car Division
-[] Fifth army corps

[] Infantry Division with Engineers & MGs
-[] Third army corps

[] Infantry ¥112k
-[] with supporting artillery ¥50k
-[] with extra infantry and MGs ¥60k

[] Infantry ¥112k
-[] with supporting engineers ¥30k
-[] with supporting artillery ¥50k

[] Mitsubishi IJAAS-4 "Hachi" Scout Aeroplane (Squadron) ¥81k (comes with a single 25kg bomb & 2 MGs per plane)


[] First Army Corps
-[] Withdraw, the salient is strategically unsound! (IJA officers and Nationalists do not like this)
[] Second Army Corps
-[] Previous offensives across this river hasn't worked, but you plan to strike again! Beat them until they buckle!
[] Third Army Corps
-[] The Third's eastern flank and the centre is in a tentatively stable position, reinforce them with troops from the west and renew the counter offensive! (weakens west)
[] Fourth Army Corps
-[] Withdraw, the salient is strategically unsound! (IJA officers and Nationalists do not like this)
[] Fifth Army Corps
-[] Charge and attack! You're even thinner on divisions than last time, but the Imperial Guard backed up by cavalry charges have proven to be extremely effective at taking ground.
 
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I am loathe to totally abandon the salient on the grounds that Japan's internal stability is questionable and that we cannot give the Chinese the propaganda coup of being able to claim that they have successfully repulsed a full blown Japanese offensive on Chinese soil.

@HanEmpire I urge a compromise solution of a Hindenburg line style solution by continuing to hold the salient for the coming turn, but halting our offensives to redirect engineer brigades to produce a much more defensible line that remains a viable beachhead across the Yalu which we would retreat to at the earliest opportunity. Obviously such fortifications could never be as comprehensive as the actual Hindenburg line but they merely need to be strong enough entrenchments for our forces to be able to safely withdraw to without fear of being pushed out by the inevitable Chinese followup.
 
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