Against the Tide - Germany 1932.
- Thread starter KarvokaQueen
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Think very hard about if this is where we want to drop the hammer. If this gets traced back to our organization in the weeks before the election, the government is going to march down from Berlin and burn us out and this would be sufficient casus belli to do so. Halder is a means to an end, not an end in and of himself and is ultimately replaceable.
I cannot say that it would be wise to potentially draw the ire of the government before the election has even happened for what is in essence a short term gain for when things come to violence.
We have our legitimacy because we put down an illegal violent rebellion from the SA so as much as Von Papen hates us he has to at least pay lip service to us. It would be an awful look nationally for us to then proceed to assassinate a General of the Reichswehr, again as I must emphasize in the time immediately before a general election.
I cannot say that it would be wise to potentially draw the ire of the government before the election has even happened for what is in essence a short term gain for when things come to violence.
We have our legitimacy because we put down an illegal violent rebellion from the SA so as much as Von Papen hates us he has to at least pay lip service to us. It would be an awful look nationally for us to then proceed to assassinate a General of the Reichswehr, again as I must emphasize in the time immediately before a general election.
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Incorrect. The NSDAP winning the upcoming elections would have them burn us out anyhow. Halder may be a replaceable asset, but he is not an immediately replaceable one. To undertake this action will be to temporarily disable their ability to smoke us out should they win, disable their ability to interfere with the election in the following weeks, and overall disable their organizational capabilities in the nearby region for a long time to come. Knocking an entire section of radicals into a state of disarray when our opponent needs them most is far more valuable than you imply.
In war, there is no such thing as an irreplaceable asset. That is why you must instead take notice of which targets are of the most value to your cause to take out. Halder is one such target in this mini-war we are having with the NSDAP.
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Valkur
The True Valkyria, Valkur!
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I hope the double down will help us get to success at least without there being a lead back to us. If that is taken off, then I'm pulling my state from the plan.
Speaking of fighting the NSDAP but what about the Communists? A political group being supported by a foreign government who's track record can only be compared to that of the worsts in History lends a bit of credence to the threat they may pose also. I'm not saying go after them but the Communists have a very position in disrupting a very important constituency within our party: The SPD.
Also can someone go into how elections work if the Government falls? Does the Bavarian Government have to call elections too? Or can we just go 'nah fam, we good here' and keep our Government here until we call elections? How important is Bavaria and its seats to the Nazi's anyways? And if the Communists and Nazi's cannot make a majority then who will be left to form a Government with? Outside of us is there ANYTHING else in Germany right now?
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The Bavarian SPD has already had its radicals ripped out and absorbed into the Communist Party. That's why they are the most compliant with our movement. Preventing the Communists from seizing control is also one of the two goals that were stated for this quest near its very start.
Presumably we could either try to launch a civil war based in Bavaria if we think we've actually got the political support and economic capabilities for it, or more realistically that is likely when Karvoka's before-mentioned "exile" phase of the quest goes into action.
If there is no clear winner, that is likely to set off a crisis of faith for the country and probably lead to bloody confrontations between each political groups's paramilitaries, as is the usual for the Weimar for this decade and the last.
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Pyrros, you're putting the toppings before the batter. If Hitler wins this election, a conventional parliamentary victory for the quest becomes all but impossible anyway. We are currently in a pretty ok position for the election, the Nazis will suffer some losses as the economy lethargically begins recovery and more from the results of the SA uprising and us managing to peel Thyssen away for now. Killing Halder has the potential to nullify all of that. Halder's death is only useful under the assumption that we will come to blows within the next few months which either means that Hitler has been able to form a government and is cracking down on us in which case we're fucked anyway, or the Nazis attempt an uprising as they slip in the ballot box in which case dealing with Halder now is premature compared to actually winning seats in the Reichstag.
You seem to misunderstand the role 7th division is having in our corner of Germany. They are not actively siding with anyone as an organization, they are a sieve of equipment and a breeding ground for radical thought. Our little slap fight with the NSDAP has not directly involved the federal government. Assassinating Halder does if it's discovered, and even if it isn't because even if there's no evidence the DnPB is the group that stands to gain.
You seem to misunderstand the role 7th division is having in our corner of Germany. They are not actively siding with anyone as an organization, they are a sieve of equipment and a breeding ground for radical thought. Our little slap fight with the NSDAP has not directly involved the federal government. Assassinating Halder does if it's discovered, and even if it isn't because even if there's no evidence the DnPB is the group that stands to gain.
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Apparently, there are Strasserites.... I wonder how they will do in the next election. Maybe he'll be able to steal some Nazi voters?
Night_stalker
Slava Ukraini!
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[X] Plan Desperate Times, Desperate Measures
Valkur
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I mean damn if its gotta be like that too.
July 1932 German federal election - Wikipedia
Above is a link to the July 1932 Election in Germany. Assuming all the non-extremists parties joined forces it would be for naught as the Nazi's and KPD would stop it from forming.
Not sure how big Bavaria is or where exactly it is. If it goes similarly though were kinda screwed...
I mean...Strasser is a thing yes. But he and his faction within the Nazi's gets put down hard. Strasser himself is told to leave the party and later dies in the Night of the Long Knives along with the SA Leadership. Who for those who wish to know, there leader just took an early exit and is in jail for starting up a war in Bavaria which saw the Nazi's become Pariah's here. Hence the reason why I think the Nazi's will lose support in Bavaria and beyond.
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- Germany
Today it's the biggest and second-most populated part of Germany.
Not sure if that was the case back then seeing as the borders changed somewhat, but we are still having a big impact on german politics with our local work.
Edit: On the map of the wiki-article, Bavaria makes up much of the southern part, I think including both the black areas.
Valkur
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IRL is Bavaria a bell-weather place for how gets to win in Germany? As in, if you win Bavaria with your Free Stuff Party! then you go on to almost assuredly win in the rest of the country too?
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The government has been dysfunctional since the start of the Great Depression. Hindenburg has effectively been doing rule by decree for years now, we don't have to get our combined parties to get a majority. We just have to make sure the NSDAP does poorly enough that von Papen can't convince Hindenburg to make Hitler Chancellor, and that our constituent parties don't break ranks and offer some sort of deal to the Nazis for their votes.I mean damn if its gotta be like that too.
July 1932 German federal election - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Above is a link to the July 1932 Election in Germany. Assuming all the non-extremists parties joined forces it would be for naught as the Nazi's and KPD would stop it from forming.
Not sure how big Bavaria is or where exactly it is.
I mean...Strasser is a thing yes. But he and his faction within the Nazi's gets put down hard. Strasser himself is told to leave the party and later dies in the Night of the Long Knives along with the SA Leadership. Who for those who wish to know, there leader just took an early exit and is in jail for starting up a war in Bavaria which saw the Nazi's become Pariah's here. Hence the reason why I think the Nazi's will lose support in Bavaria and beyond.
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You seem to have missed the whole reason why we have the option. It is almost certain that Hitler himself will become chancellor. We have been given the option to disorganize the 7th division because of the likelihood of him ordering a policing action against us. From what I know of the powers of the Reichschancellor under the Weimar Constitution, he would not need to control the Reichstag (or Reichsrat) to order such an action in a manner that would heavily disable our capabilities. Taking out this target is of the utmost importance to our long-term survival. It is a gamble, but it is of less risk than trying to ride out the storm and hoping it works.
If the NSDAP-DNVP coalition, not Hitler, wins the election, a conventional parliamentary victory becomes impossible, which it already is mostly impossible anyhow because I wouldn't put it past the Brownshirts to try a coup (mirroring the coups of the 1920s) in the event they lose, provoking the Communists into action and setting us into a larger civil war anyhow. The biggest thing is doing whatever we can to consolidate political power and networks across Germany, and to do that we can't allow ourselves to be taken out in our home base. The best thing we can do is try to delay these radicals while we find our feet across the area.
Fairly big, historically Catholic compared to the rest of Protestant Germany (hence why Austria once tried absorbing it), very traditional, and along the southern bits of Germany. It's still not a good shot unless Mussolini decides we're a better bet than the Communists and Nazis and sends a supply line through Austria, but that is unlikely and still wouldn't give a very good shot.
It is also worth noting that we have only absorbed the Bavarian branches of those parties. The branches of the parties in other regions are still unaffiliated with our movement and thus will still act independently, which is more the reason why I don't believe a total democratic victory is possible this late in the Republic.
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- Germany
Not really.
CSU (Bavarian sub-part of the CDU, center-right/conservative party) has always had the most votes in Bavaria, from 1946 in the first post-war vote until now.
So Bavaria really isn't any kind of indicator.
And as far as I can tell Bavaria has been voting Center-Right before WW2 too.
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The mobilization of 7th division to dismantle us in a 'police action' is not just a step on the escalation ladder, it is jumping directly to the end of the scale. If Hitler becomes Chancellor and is indeed willing to resort to outright force to destroy us we are already doomed. If he is willing to send 7th division down here but that's not available not much is stopping him from pulling other Reichswehr divisions to break our legs. If it gets to that point we are already dead. If we managed to gank the remnants of 7th division after killing Halder when Hitler sends them down, what comes next? A civil war we are basically guaranteed to lose on account of South Germany having 1/3rd the population and maybe 1/4 of German industry?
We don't have to get to that point. Those are the last resort last stand options. We have the opportunity to head that off with this election. The Nazi's electoral fortunes irl between the 1932 elections, and here they have suffered significant reverses. Hitler can be stopped here and here is the best place to do it.
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Once again, you are making a serious mistake of thinking that radicals will play by the rules. The election isn't the end of the game. It's the end of the beginning.
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I have not made the assumption that they will play by the rules, I explicitly noted the possibility of a Nazi uprising if they continue to suffer reverses and are unable to seize power more or less legally. Beating the Nazis in the election is putting a sizable obstacle in front of one of their easiest win conditions, become the government. The situations in which killing Halder is a clear and sizable benefit are situations in which Hitler has essentially won and we can only alter the degree of victory he has achieved:
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Wrong. As I said before, he will become chancellor regardless of having won. He can do so without complete control, as the elections take place after he has assumed the chancellory.
Killing Halder is of clear benefit to any situation in which Hitler becomes chancellor, which is almost certain. What isn't certain is the DNVP-NSDAP coalition gaining a majority of the Reichstag, which is why I rewrote the conditions for what you said locked out any form of slightly democratic victory.
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@King50000 I would highly advise you remove that funny. Using ratings in a mocking manner is an infractable offense.
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Valkur
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Can I ask why you are going with this plan over the double down version?
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I found a picture on Wikipedia, that ought to show the different states of Germany during the Weimar Republic. What I find interesting is that Bavaria (which is called Bayern on the map) has a exclave, that actually borders France.
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Yes, that very exclave is where our movement's former DNVP (now part of the BVP) was from before being dissolved. It is also likely an easy location to get French weaponry smuggled in should we so desire to go that particular path.