The simple reality of it was that France had been used to being the No. 1 power on the continent for a good long while, that a unified Germany upset that power balance, and that France wanted to restore the way of things it was used to.
Not really true.
The French were used to
the British being the number 1 power on the continent.
Funnily enough, a fair number of your points could easily be switched around, and they'd remain applicable.
And? I really don't understand why my outlining the real French politics and concerns means that Germany can't also have real politics and concerns.
This isn't a situation where we have to decide whether the Germans or the French were human beings and which were evil robots. They were all humans doing things for what they considered valid reasons.
Okay, first off, I never claimed the French had some sort of "genetic" hatred of Germans, so don't try to put words in my mouth, please.
I said "deep psychological or even genetic hatred of Germans". The way you were talking implied that you saw the French as having the former - a deep psychological hatred - and I meet enough people who do think that the French of this time had some sort of Genetic hatred of Germans that I thought it likely that some of the other people who'd be reading my post would come under the latter.
I can see why you read it the way you did though.
Actually, I don't want to gamble at all. My ideal scenario would actually be that the Soviets manage to tick off the Entente sufficiently enough to end up in a war against them, while we sit on the sideline and basically play the same role for the Entente that the US played for the Allies; selling massive amounts of war materials on credit.
I really do not see how the Brits and French can end up in a war with the Soviets without Germany getting pulled in also. At which point Germany becomes the battlefield of Europe and that is really, really bad for the German people.
How about instead we work for world peace and get filthy rich by selling people machine tools instead?
We should just kill Stalin and bring back Trotsky.
The USSR didn't want to be led by Trotsky even before Stalin filled the ranks of every organization with his people.
You may as well be plotting to bring back the Romanovs. It's not happening.
A Trotskyite Soviet Union would have to conduct purges on the same level as Stalin's, simply because by 1932 Stalin has largely cemented his control over the party, and even if the Man of Steel himself has died, unless Trotsky got all of his associates in one fell swoop (Almost certainly impossible), he would have to wipe out effectively the entire OGPU at the start to ensure he doesn't get counter-couped. And then there is the military. Even if it has men disloyal to Stalin within it, that doesn't mean they are loyal to Trotsky at all. He would have to wipe out the ambitious officers within his armed forces, and do so without the level of control Stalin had over the State Security establishment.
It will be bloody.
Trotsky had a minuscule chance of being the figurehead of a Bolshevik Soviet Union even if his path to power starts before Lenin's death. He had zero chance of ever becoming a dictator like Stalin. ZERO. The idea of Trotsky coming in AFTER Stalin had started setting up his dictatorship is derisory.
It wouldn't be bloody. It wouldn't happen!
(Good summary of all the roadblocks in the way to any non-Stalinist trying to take over though... Your core point is good, I just think you are painting a way more optimistic picture than is justified.)
The USSR in '42/43 would be stronger than the one in '41, yes, but at the same time our Germany - barring a series of colossal fuck-ups on our part - should also be vastly stronger than Nazi Germany in that time period. No war against the Allies would mean more manpower available (no casualties and no need for occupation troops, no adventures in northern Africa or the Balkans), free access to the world markets and their resources, no bombing raids that damage industrial capabilities and tie up military production and assets in the form of fighters, AA guns and munitions, no war at sea siphoning resources from the army to the navy, and so on.
And where is Germany getting the money to buy things off the world market? Germany in OTL was so strong because it got hella lucky and got to look all of Europe for an astoundingly low cost in loss of life, then looted it thoroughly, then enslaved the working population to keep his mad war going and
turned all its export industries over to arms production!
While I don't really blame you for thinking Germany is so strong, I gotta tell ya, the fantasy-super-Germans didn't really exist. This is exactly the sort of unrealistic thinking that led to Hitler down the primrose path of mass murder.
(On the whole fantasy-super-German thing, the Germans are consistently shown as being stronger than they are because that makes games like Axis and Allies or Hearts of Iron far more interesting. Because of the victors bigging the Germans up was a way to big themselves up after WW2 - the US could say "look, we defeated the magical super-Germans, we must be magical ourselves!", same for the British and the Soviets. Add to that, bigging up the Germans and poo-pooing the Soviets was fashionable in the Cold War because the Germans were safely defeated and the Soviets were the new enemy after 1947. On top of that, Western histories of the Eastern Front were written by the Germans themselves, allowing them to sell the American Army especially some really outrageous lies and propaganda. Then add to
that the way most histories show us what the Germans were able to do in WW2, but many fewer history books show us
how the Germans were able to do things that next to WW1 seem miracles - let alone really delve into the costs of those things.)
Especially tanks; their domestic designs were severely behind the tech-curve.
Japan was behind the tech curve in
1945 after fighting WW2 since
1938. Funnily enough, that meant they had a lack of resources to keep up in R&D. Also, they weren't able to import the needed alloying metals to make good steel for tank armour. At the point we are in the quest, Japan is producing tanks competitive with those being used by European powers and are powering ahead in military technology. If they don't end up at war with either the USSR or the USA, there's a good chance they'll be able to get nuclear bombs in the 50s as they have some very good nuclear physicists.
Of course, if Germany isn't ratcheting up tensions in Europe, then the border clashes the Japanese and Soviets had in OTL could well end up turning into a big war as Stalin sees if he can run the Japanese out of Manchuria and Korea. Odds are he will, but the Japanese can give the Soviets a tough fight.
The USSR fighting against Japan wouldn't be bad either, though, if we can sell the Japanese various war materials.
So where are the Japanese getting the money to buy in any bulk? Because the US sure isn't going to be offering them any loans. The UK can't afford to offer any large and risky loans and in any case, doesn't want to upset the US by being too friendly with Japan. France will be busy with internal troubles and worrying about us.
So that leaves Germany. Now what do you think our chances are of seeing any loans to Japan repaid? And do you really want to risk pissing off one of Germany's few allies at this point?
While the war declaration being forced was certainly an incident, it was the sort that would normally be shrugged at.
Hm. I think the Congress Party was honestly upset at British high-handedness. Britain had agreed to quit India in 1935, had promised them a vote on the war... And then when the moment comes to decide India's part in the war, the British are like "oh no, we can't trust you, no vote, you're going to war".
Anyways. As to your original point that we should cozy up to India. That's gonna be a good way to piss the British off. While Indian independence is all but assured even at the point we're at in the quest, the British still have this idea that India will be part of their sphere. And India as a German ally would be a huge threat to the middle east, which is where all the fuel from the Royal Navy comes from (at least, that fuel that doesn't come from the US, or over US controlled sea lanes from Venezuela.
Making overtures to India will be taken as a German knife to Britain's jugular. That's probably something to avoid until 1960 or so.
fasquardon
