A Golden Island To The West — California ISOT from 2018 to 1850

I wasn't suggesting that a downtime ship could hurt an uptime ship, I was suggesting that a downtime ship might be able to hurt a tank if it got lucky and a bunch of cannons aimed correctly. Although if they don't have shells and it's just cannonballs then even that is dubious.
The effective armor of MBTs is way beyond what a downtime ship could hope to penetrate. This is the age of shooting iron balls and hoping you hit something. CSS Virginia had iron rails on her sloped superstructure and she was virtually impenetrable.

Any MBT should shrug off any conceivable downtime cannon fire.

Now, if a MBT can hurt a downtime ship on the other hand is the more interesting question. For sailing ships, HE rounds with WIllie Pete should do wonders, against steam ships Sabot fired into the machines should do massive damage.
 
They don't combine HE and WP effects in single rounds. Sabot is a waste on downtime ships, just stick with HEDP and you'll be fine.
 
Guys. We have a BIG problem. AN EXTREMELY BIG ONE! And the Uptimers should know that it is going to happen.





Article:
Carrington-level Flare Today?
In the 1800's, it was a mild inconvenience for telegraph operators with most people enjoying the beautiful light show. If a Carrington level event hit the world today it would be devastation on a scale we haven't witnessed before. Our entire global economy is built on electronics. Unless you competed for Survivor or binge-watched all of Revolution, most of us would have an extremely difficult time coping in a world with no electricity.

The U.S. power grid is highly interconnected and aging, a Carrington-class geomagnetic storm would likely overwhelm and take the entire grid offline. A report from the National Academy of Sciences claims it would be a $1 trillion – $2 trillion hit to our power grid, GPS, and satellite communication systems, causing extensive social and economic disruptions.

Ice core samples have shown that the Carrington Event was the most powerful solar flare in the last 500 years, however, with no reliable way of predicting solar flares much needs to be done to prepare for the inevitable hit.


On the other hand, they have about nine years of prep time.
 
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Personally doubtful. Much of the US power grid and other infrastructure is designed to be resistant to EMP attacks from nuclear weapons. I've never seen any hard reports (despite my attempts to find them) that don't rely on huge amounts of assumptions.
 
Personally doubtful. Much of the US power grid and other infrastructure is designed to be resistant to EMP attacks from nuclear weapons. I've never seen any hard reports (despite my attempts to find them) that don't rely on huge amounts of assumptions.

What gives you that idea?
 
Personally doubtful. Much of the US power grid and other infrastructure is designed to be resistant to EMP attacks from nuclear weapons. I've never seen any hard reports (despite my attempts to find them) that don't rely on huge amounts of assumptions.
Funny post.
 
Nice rebuttal.

Like to explain how EMP damages fibre-optic telecommunications cables or electricity grids designed to survive high voltage surges from lightning strikes?

Edit

http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyd... risk to the north american electric grid.pdf

Report from Loyds puts the damages at US$0.6b to US$2b and would cause 20-40m people to suffer power outages in the US, primarily in the DC-New York corridor.

It's not a society ending event as your pop-sci (and use that word in a derogatory manner) source suggests.
 
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Nice rebuttal.

Like to explain how EMP damages fibre-optic telecommunications cables or electricity grids designed to survive high voltage surges from lightning strikes?
An EMP is orders of magnitude more serious than lightning strikes. An EMP is distributed across a large part of the grid (the entire grid, in the case of the solar storm thing in 1859) and therefore overwhelms it everywhere instead of just at a single point.
 
An EMP is orders of magnitude more serious than lightning strikes. An EMP is distributed across a large part of the grid (the entire grid, in the case of the solar storm thing in 1859) and therefore overwhelms it everywhere instead of just at a single point.
Over-voltage protection systems are also distributed over the entire grid.

The paper from Loyds goes into more detail but the whole grid is not at risk because of a mixture of environmental conditions varying over the United States and differing levels of protective equipment avilable.
 
Nice rebuttal.

Like to explain how EMP damages fibre-optic telecommunications cables or electricity grids designed to survive high voltage surges from lightning strikes?

Edit

http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging risk reports/solar storm risk to the north american electric grid.pdf

Report from Loyds puts the damages at US$0.6b to US$2b and would cause 20-40m people to suffer power outages in the US, primarily in the DC-New York corridor.

It's not a society ending event as your pop-sci (and use that word in a derogatory manner) source suggests.
Are you joking? Right? That Solar Flare caused massive aurorae at the fucking equator! The power of that EM pulse cannot be even compared to a theoretical situation where you detonated a hundred one-megaton weapons 150 km above the US or caused a continent-wide superstorm with multi-gigavolts lightning strikes per km^2 every second.

I am not even talking about fiber optics. I am talking about every single transformer and distribution station melting into a puddle of molten copper, aluminum, silver, gold and steel into a crater on the literal ground from the electrical currents that much high voltage will induce in any too long conducting material.

The following works on the same principles as what will be happening to every conductor material cable or wire when that Solar Storm reaches Earth.

 
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Are you joking? Right? That Solar Flare caused massive aurorae at the fucking equator! The power of that EM pulse cannot be even compared to a theoretical situation where you detonated a hundred one-megaton weapons 150 km above the US or caused a continent-wide superstorm with multi-gigavolts lightning strikes per km^2 every second.

I am not even talking about fiber optics. I am talking about every single transformer and distribution station melting into a puddle of molten copper, aluminum, silver, gold and steel into a crater on the literal ground from the electrical currents that much high voltage will induce in any too long conducting material.

The following works on the same principles as what will be happening to every conductor material cable or wire when that Solar Storm reaches Earth.


Nice job completely ignoring my source. I assume, as you didn't actually address anything from it that you don't have any evidence? I'm not going to waste my time addressing any of your claims if you can't even be bothered to reply with even rudimentry evidence.

And no, an induction heater is not comparable. The magnetic field produced by an induction heater is both at a greatly different frequency than what would come from a solar storm and is significantly more powerful. Long narrow conductors don't experience much in the way of eddy currents.

If I tried to hand a paper like that up for my degree I would received a fail. The number of unsourced and unverifiable statements in it is actually disgusting.

The EMPire Strikes Back

EMP is basically a survivalist fetish so they can live out their fantasies in the woods while the evil liberals die in their cities with their technology.

Edit:

I should also point out that the effect from nuclear weapons would be a powerful instantaneous event that (in theory) could happen faster than protection systems can kick in. Where as a solar storm would rise in power levels relatively slowly and maintain that power level for a comparatively long period of time. This would give a chance for for basically every possible safety system to kick in.
 
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They don't combine HE and WP effects in single rounds. Sabot is a waste on downtime ships, just stick with HEDP and you'll be fine.

The point would seem to chiefly be putting an inert pernetrator through the machinery in hopes of minimizing casualties. Essentially sit back from the river bank and cripple steam boats while hopefully avoiding too many needless deaths.
 
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Nice job completely ignoring my source. I assume, as you didn't actually address anything from it that you don't have any evidence? I'm not going to waste my time addressing any of your claims if you can't even be bothered to reply with even rudimentry evidence.

And no, an induction heater is not comparable. The magnetic field produced by an induction heater is both at a greatly different frequency than what would come from a solar storm and is significantly more powerful. Long narrow conductors don't experience much in the way of eddy currents.


If I tried to hand a paper like that up for my degree I would received a fail. The number of unsourced and unverifiable statements in it is actually disgusting.

The EMPire Strikes Back

EMP is basically a survivalist fetish so they can live out their fantasies in the woods while the evil liberals die in their cities with their technology.

Edit:

I should also point out that the effect from nuclear weapons would be a powerful instantaneous event that (in theory) could happen faster than protection systems can kick in. Where as a solar storm would rise in power levels relatively slowly and maintain that power level for a comparatively long period of time. This would give a chance for for basically every possible safety system to kick in.

You can't really extrapolate from the fact that the threat of an EMP attack from the likes of DPRK or Iran is seriously overexagerated to the claim that the power grid is hardend against nuclear strikes, or that much, much more powerful geomagnetic storms are consequently no threat.
 
But to go with that more compact cities, more labor intensive factories and infrastructure you also means have a greater chance of killing and injuring civilians which is likely going to be very unpopular and then there is the matter of even getting to the targets in the first place across a continent and then getting back with little external guidance.

Well for starters, they will have GPS back up and running soon. So navigation will be far less of an issue. As for lift capacity? California has dozens if not hundreds of airports full of passenger jets, cargo planes, and all the infrastructure necessary to build a long range air bridge to support a foreign force. The only thing they are missing is a large source of oil, but California has records showing where every major oil deposit in the world is. Finding oil is no problem, getting to it and refining it is sufficient scale may be.

One thing that California needs to start thinking about is that its actually better for them if North America has a large number of independent states. It reduces the risk of the future US being a threat to California once they catch up technologically. If the US is reduced to the Union states, with the Confederacy becoming independent (and later annexing Cuba) That's actually good for California long term (after they cripple slavery economically). Helping to establish an independent Mormon republic, native nations, and maybe even splinting Texas back into being independent republic would go a long way towards ensuring Californian domination of the continent for centuries to come. The last thing California should want is the entire continent to fall under the united rule of a resurgent US.

The Uptimers should be well aware that the US has a tendency to go to war to secure their continental supremacy. California's best way to avoid that is to prevent the US (or rather the Union) from spreading past the Rockies. Plus, having more varied markets with fewer tariffs is a good thing. California can do all this essentially peacefully, using just economic power and propaganda (along with the judicious arming of their new allies) to ensure that California remains the dominant North American power. We want to ensure San Francisco, not New York becomes the financial capital of the world.
 
I think Cailifonia might have other issues than trying to make north america bigger mess than afganstian like trying to find a way to deal with the damage that likely going to be done by the great solar flare and solar storm of 1859, a event that is estimated by researchers would have done between .6 to 2.6 trillion damage to the US alone if the world today was hit by a similar event like it was in 1859 at least if Loyd of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research are to believed.
 
I'm pretty sure that the solar überflare will be handled by the author when we reach that point. Right now, there are more pressing issues— namely slavery in the South, which California wants to smash into the ground (and hopefully prevent Jim Crow from filling the vaccuum), and the folks in DC, and whether to be a part of the Union, or pick up where things were supposed to leave off and go independent.
 
Chapter 25
From: Tom Steyer on behalf of 350.org.
To: Undisclosed Recipients.
Subject: A Second Chance to do Things Right.

Dear *|FNAME|*,

California has been given an incredible second chance. Recorded levels of atmospheric Carbon Dioxide have dropped to 287 ppm. However, as history has shown us, this is going to start rising if we don't do anything about it.

Which is why we are calling on Governor Newsom and the California Labor Party to ban construction of new fossil fuel power plants, and a requirement for all new housing construction to be capable of electrical self-sufficiency.

We have a chance here to prevent the world's dependence on Coal, Oil, and other fossil fuels before it ever starts. California can become a model for the world, and we should see this as a chance to do things right the first time.

That's also why we're calling on Californians to support Recommissioning San Onofre. Nuclear electricity emits no greenhouse gasses and can be supplied with fuel available here in California.


Click Here to send a message to your Assembly Representative and State Senator

Thank you,

Tom Steyer.

———

181 Fremont Street, San Francisco – March 29th

Jessie Benton Frémont walked her daughter Lily into their high rise condo, carrying a roasted chicken in one of her grocery bags, and a bottle of wine for herself in the other. With only just the two of them, and John in Sacramento, they had a good number of leftover allotments on her ration card. So Jessie was splurging a little bit.

"Welcome to the Hotel California." Sang Lily. "Such a lovely place."

"Such as lovely place" Sang Jessie, as the two of them put away the groceries.

That song had been on Jessie's mind lately, the once-untamed frontier had become what had seemed like a paradise on earth at first. The California of 2018 was a place where a lot of people couldn't afford to live because of high rents and something akin to the problem of land speculators that she was all too familiar with back home. Even the condo that her, John and Lily shared was a stroke of luck, with the exchange rate for the cash that she had brought with her from Washington, the money from the settlement over the Mariposa land, and Mrs. Feinstein helping the young family afford this place.

But her and John had important roles in the state now, she was helping the "up-time" federal government deal with the rest of the world and giving advice to California's two new senators, Mrs. Harris and Mr. Jones, as only somebody who grew up in Old Hickory's White House could.

"Lizzie would love this place." Jessie mused.

Jessie had always been loud and outspoken as a child, and she had practically been joined at the hip to her best friend Elizabeth Blair.

Now that instinct, which had been chafing at the edges in Washington, was perfectly welcome in the new California. It had taken quite a bit of getting used to, but like the song that had been on her mind had said, 'you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.' And truthfully, after experiencing the wonders that this place had to offer, she didn't think she could ever leave.

Placing the roasted chicken on the small dining table, Lily grabbed the plates and silverware out of the cupboards, and the two of them helped themselves to some chicken.

"Shall we see how your father is doing?" Jessie asked.

Lily nodded.

Pulling a tablet off of the charging stand, Jessie unlocked it and called John. After a couple of rings, his face popped up onto the screen.

"Hello Jessie, Hi Lily." He said on the screen.

"Hi dad!" Said Lily Frémont.

"Hey John," Said Jessie. "How are things going in Sacramento?"

John winced. "You remember hearing about Glanton and his gang? They think they've caught some of them, and a lot of them are after blood."

Jessie tensed, the California of 2018 was different in so many ways, but one of the most stark differences for John and herself to come to terms with was how people viewed the Indians. In Washington, they were seen as an obstacle to expansion, and a problem to be erased, and truth be told her father was one of the worst about it. But in California they tried to see the Indians as equal parters and as a community of separate nations the same way one might see Bavaria or France as a separate country. It had required John and herself to do some soul-searching about how they saw Indians, especially since the arc of history had taken a very dim view on how California treated Indians, with words like 'Genocide' being thrown around.

"Well." She said. "I hope they're prepared to face justice."

———

United Farm Workers — Keene, CA

If you asked the members of the UFW, CalEFDA was a godsend. The Agency had been made with a mandate to buy whatever the valley had produced. UFW had worked with the Democrat, scratch that, the Labor Party, and even the Agricultural Council of California to hammer out the wording.

Ultimately though, with the overnight disappearance of export markets, only the most hardcore of Randian fundamentalists had spoken up against CalEFDA, when pressed with the choice between socialism or barbarism, it was the Ayn Rand worshippers in Orange County who were willing to push the state down the road to Barbarism. The excess fruits and vegetables were being stored in a refrigerated storage facility in Lodi that had used to be part of a General Mills plant.

For now, the excesses are being cycled out and disposed of if there's spoilage, but the eventual plan is for the state to start shipping out the excess to the rest of the country. As soon as the cross-country rail links were built, all the refrigerated shipping containers that had piled up in the state would be able to send fresh fruits and vegetables across the country and around the world. People knew from history that this was an untapped market with a rapidly shrinking window of opportunity.

Meat, on the other hand was something where the demand was still outpacing supply in most cases. Fish from the ocean wasn't a problem, those fish stocks had been replenished by The Event, but beef and chicken were still short and so CalEFDA had been doing some clever distribution management to cut spoilage as much as possible and even out the demand for meat so that people wouldn't feel the pinch as badly.

———

Interstate 8 Bridge, Quechan Territory, Winterhaven, CA – 9:03 AM, March 30th, 1851

J.C. Morehead was a tired man. His company of men were returning to Los Angeles over this strange bridge that had appeared over the Colorado River. They had expected to be treated like triumphant war heroes for avenging the righteous hero and Indian scalper John Glanton, that was what Governor Burnett asked him to do after all.

The expedition had started off badly, with the bloodsucking merchants in the cattle town of Los Angeles charging him an arm and a leg for everything, running the costs of supplies into the thousands of dollars. Half of his men had deserted him to go mine for gold in the Sierras, and had to recruit men off of the wagon trains coming along the southern stagecoach trails, all of whom wanted huge paydays because they had come to California for gold.

Of course, once the expedition of 125 men had crossed the Colorado, site of the ferry incident that had started the whole thing, the Indians just kept fleeing further and further up the river. Across his entire company of men, Morehead reckoned that they had maybe killed a dozen or so Indians.

Every time they moved along the Gila, the Indians would just move further and further up the river, denying his men the pleasure of killing them, forcing them to simply burn their food supplies. Eventually though, Morehead and his men had just given up, made camp along the river, and used up most of their supplies before launching a half-cocked filibustering expedition into Mexico.

It… didn't go so well. Of the 125 who went into Sonora to filibuster it, only 75 had made it back, with many of them dying of thirst in the Sonoran Desert or in the

So now, Morehead and his band were tired, hungry, and itching for their big paydays promised by Governor Burnett. As the group crossed over the odd bridge, they couldn't help but notice the line of black and white stagecoaches with the words "Border Patrol" written on the sides arrayed along the bridge to block them.

Probably just trying to collect a toll for the bridge, or maybe to keep the Yuma out. Thought the local guide, Dave Brown. He was hoping it wasn't a lawman from San Diego, who might have been wondering why somebody who had escaped from prison in San Diego had gotten a job as a guide for this excursion.

"Can I help you gentlemen?" Asked one of the uniformed men.

"We're the Gila Expedition returning to California under orders from Governor Burnett." Explained Morehead.

"Governor Burnett?" Asked the officer. "The Governor of California is Gavin Newsom now, not Peter Burnett. Can I ask what you boys were doing in Mexico?"

"We were sent up the Gila to pursue the Yuma in retaliation for their senseless killing of John Glanton." Replied Morehead.

"Uh huh. I'll just bet you were." Said the office, suspiciously. "If you're going to bullshit me, make it believable. We spotted your party coming up from the south, from Mexico, not from along the Gila."

Not liking how this confrontation was going, Morehead's hand started moving towards the rifle he had strapped to his back.

"Hands where I can see em!" Yelled the office, who had pulled out an odd looking pistol. "Off the horses, now!"

Morehead definitely didn't like the sound of that, instead he reached for his trusty Mississippi rifle. "I don't think so." Morehead snarled.

The rest of the uniformed men seemed to take this as a sign of aggression and started unholstering their own weapons as well.

"Drop the guns, and get on the ground! Face down!" One of the officers shouted.

None of Morehead's men complied. The Border Patrol officers pointed their guns at the ground in front of Morehead's team.

Bill Carr, one of Morehead's men who had injured his ankle in Los Angeles before they had set off, pulled out his own smoothbore musket and leveled it at one of the uniformed men.

Carr had barely slept since his bad ankle was still aching, so when a box on one of the uniformed men's breast had suddenly made a noise, he was startled.

His finger twitched just enough.

One of the uniformed officers who was watching him saw this, and in a split second decision, raised his pistol and shot Bill Carr.

As soon as the first shot rang out, the bridge turned into a war zone, Morehead and the rest tried to pull out their muskets and rifles, but the uniformed men just cut them down with their pistols.

Of the 75 men who had entered the bridge, only 48 survived.
 
A bit too late to cut off coal as its the power basis for the entire industrial revolution at this stage and has been for about a century. [Also to many people in the industrialising world a warmer one probably sounds quite attractive. Especially those shivering in poorly built terrace slums in a lot of the industrial centres.] Not to mention that either coal or later some oil products are going to be necessary for transport means. Furthermore I doubt if the up-timers will want the down-timers to get their hands on even civilian nuclear power. It could be that Steyer is only talking about California but that would seem fairly pointless.

Much better to organise plans for cleaner uses of fossil fuels and encouraging better education so future generations can understand the potential problems of untrammeled use of fossil fuels. Along with other environmental problems.

In terms of the Morehead gang it sounds like their really fouled things up. As well as pretty much failing by their own standards, both in killing Indians and their would be rampage into Mexico their going to look pretty damned bad to the new Californians, even without starting a bloody fire-fight with the local law. Of course as lot of the 1850's Americans, when they get reports of the shootout could see it differently, which could be another source of tension. I wonder what happens if the down-time authorities or Supreme Court try to demand their release or in some other way seek to prevent Californian justice?
 
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first time i have ever heard of them to be honest, sounds like you pre-empted a very costly war if you are lucky.
 
The Accidental Public Works Program
How California Created The Largest Accidental Public Works Program in History — TheLiberator.com — April 9th, 1872

Of the unique things about living in California, the one thing that tends to surprise newcomers the most is that the vast majority of people living here live in publicly owned housing. For most people coming from the United States, the adjustment from living in crowded tenements with increasing rents to rentless communal dwellings is a frequent source of culture shock.

Yet it shocks people to learn that this system came about on accident.

When California came back in time to 1850, the state was faced with a myriad of crises caused by the transition. While the State Senate and State Assembly solutions to those acts had a cascade of unintended consequences.

Thousands of homes across the state had been purchased as investments by wealthy foreigners who were trying to park money in California via real estate. When The Event happened, these dwellings were suddenly thrown into legal uncertainty, with the owners having effectively ceased to exist with The Event. As these properties became tax delinquent, counties began to take possession of them and make them available as low income housing. Meanwhile, with all the lenders within the state in FDIC receivership at the time, properties that had been foreclosed on by the banks had been "sold" to the state's former Department of Housing and Community Development. who in trend transferred the houses to counties to administer.

At the same time, fears of a looming unemployment crisis had prompted the state to order a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures. As people fell behind on rents and mortgages, counties would take ownership of properties, and would negotiate a reduced rate of payment based on people's income.

As word began to spread about this, and as the unemployment began to increase from pre-transition companies going defunct from the crisis, and as other companies began to partially replace wages with stock as a stopgap measure, more Californians found themselves defaulting. These defaults had caused more rent and mortgage delinquencies, which had led to the state taking more ownership of properties and taking a reduced rent payment.

Multi-tenant apartment complexes or buildings suddenly found themselves undercut by the influx of the state owned Vacant Investment Property (VIP) dwellings appearing on the market, and so many apartment complexes were forced to reduce rent to compete, which in turn caused many newly constructed ones to default and be forced to sell to HCD.

In spite of conservative fears of a fiscal collapse caused by these actions, the new revenue stream from tenants had acted as a lifeline for county governments and the state government, who had been worried about a loss of property tax revenue.

The collapse of the housing market from the crisis and the emergence of this new income stream for county governments had happened so fast and so thoroughly across the state that by the time of the Constitutional Convention in January of 1853, the overwhelming majority of delegates had called for a formal codification of the ad hoc public housing program, which it received in the form of the California Department of Public Housing, the largest single landowner in the world.

Today, over 86% of Californians live in publicly owned housing, and California has one of the lowest rates of homelessness and poverty in the world.
 
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This is, uh, really really bad long term.

Like "slide backwards to third-world status (compared to 2018 USA) in less than a century" bad.

You just indicated that nearly all land in California is now state owned. A liberal democratic country by any standard, and one where a very large block of voters believe the state should provide for them while the rst despise their guts. The remaining land owners just became absurdly wealthy and the state has no long term ability to sustain payments on their own land unless directly enabled by voters.

The logistics of this would bankrupt the major powers of the day in a matter of years. California apparently underwent this change in a handful of months. The sheer shock to the system would either annihilate the investing class or raise them to the level of kings with nearly unlimited control of the California economy, or even the broader economies elsewhere in the world.
 
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