The reason I'm expecting only a colony drop is that they're a symbol of the OYW alongside a lot of other conflicts, and if the goal is to cause chaos in the Earth Sphere it would work even if the it failed to reach the intended destination. Also fewer moving parts means fewer ways for things to go wrong, and unless Dogatie has loads of nukes the damage he can do is limited.Great analysis.. I've been thinking pretty much the same thing ever since Lorelei dropped the "he's planning war crimes" bomb on us back in the final chapter of Jupiter's Second Coming, even if I wasn't quite as in depth in my own analysis.
My one point of disagreement is that Dogatie is planning only colony drops. These missions have phases in which we can take them, the earlier the better. Like, the longer we put Dogatie off the better his odds of success. He's probably planning at least one war crime besides Colony drops and if we say, put him off till our final chance of stopping him, he probably succeeds or partially succeeds at one of them, and pulls off both if we don't take it.
He's probably going to try and seize the resources he needs for the none colony drop war crime, same as he needs to reach and begin towing Island Cascadia. This let's him avoid the space premium you mentioned.
This wasn't his original plan given the travel times involved, but if the people of the Earth Sphere give Dogatie a potential WMD they're not paying much attention... well he was raised in a place where people are told to use what they've got on hand, and the Jupiter Fleet has quite a bit of energy to accelerate large objects at things. Since even in CCA they were wondering where Char got the energy to yeet things at the Earth iirc.
For the stages I was thinking something along the lines of,
1) Stop him from getting any gain from this thus discouraging future attempts of interference by the Jupiter Fleet, and reassert that Londo Bell is still has a handle on this types of problems as the plot was foiled in the initial stages. Well in the eyes of those who ever learn of what went down.
2) Have a chance to stop the colony from actually being accelerated enough that it cannot be stopped without blowing it up, and avoid any of the political mess a near miss would cause as such acts are a hot button issue even among Spacenoids.
3) Stop the colony from actually hitting the target, and a near miss would damage the legitimacy of Londo Bell alongside result in a lot of spacenoids side eyeing the Republic of Zeon, or any organization with Zeon in the name. This still avoids the massive upswing of support for the Federation if the target was say the Earth, and it hit the planet.
The above is all speculation on my part as the instance I can recall of what we miss from not picking a mission during the first phase was not getting an alliance with the Republic of Zeon if we hadn't picked the First Newtype as our first mission.
Fair enough, and the only Newtype I can recall hiding like what Lorelei did is Char at the end of Zeta hiding the fact that he survived. Well there was Scirocco hiding how much a monster he was for awhile, and giving other Newtypes what the wanted to see in an individual to better manipulate them.The hiding his actual intentions bit doesn't actually make sense. Obscuring his thoughts by focusing on multiple options for war crimes still tells everyone he is here for war crimes. Memory based abilities like Kamille and Lorelei are actually pretty rare, as even Jutneu Anstud seems to have been kept in the dark by Dogatie keeping his distance. If we hadn't struck the right cord for Dogatie with Cybele's speech, Cybele probably woudn't have been able to notice him lying, and Lorelei would probably have had a harder time plundering his memories. Newtypes benefit from a connection/shared understanding, as we see with Lorelei being able to hide from her team because they never knew the real her under her pro federation mask.
Edit: Also, I actually genuinely forgot what's his faces Ashta's first name this time beyond the J, and decided to just fall back on the joke rather than look it up.
Last edited: