I think that simply inviting everyone risks cluttering the debate. The socialist leaning and the reactionary states of the Arab League are forming their own blocs in preparation for the incoming war to unite the Arab world. Obviously, we will want to invite like-minded Arab states to the conferences. As for the states opposed to socialism, we have to decide if the potential insights gained from observing them at the conferences outweighs the dangers of the reactionary states networking with each other and potentially securing control of the conference's agenda through numbers.
I do not see the point of inviting reactionary monarchies outside of the MENA region such as the landlocked Mughal Empire which is also a puppet of Scandinavia.
think that simply inviting everyone risks cluttering the debate. The socialist leaning and the reactionary states of the Arab League are forming their own blocs in preparation for the incoming war to unite the Arab world.
I don't know much about what's happening in the Moghul Empire, Funj or Adal but I think that Moghul is a burgundian puppet while Funj and Adal are in Burgundy's backyard so it stands to reason that the Burgundians heavily influence them in some way (or at least they keep good relations with Burgundy). Inviting them would be allowing the burgundians to influence the conference even if indirectly.
I, also, don't have the foggiest idea on what's happening in Afghanistan specially because it names itself a kingdom (as opposed to sultanate as other muslim monarchies seem to do) nor am I sure why we should invite Bengal given that they are a muslim nation not an arab nation (it might give unnnecessarily religious connotations to the conference, as if saying that the only thing that unites all countries present is the religion they share) and Tartarstan suffers of the same issue.
New Afrika is in the caribbean, lumping them under the same label as arabs is akin to blatantly ignoring the social and historical differences between each group.
Inviting Iran would be great for political reasons but I am also hesitant. As far as I know (though I freely admit that I am no expert), Iranians consider themselves persian instead of arab but inviting them (along with Turkey, Magrheb and Morocco) would help us isolate the reactionary monarchies (sourrounded by socialist or socialist leaning nations in the conference).
Adding Iraq to the list of invited nations also makes sense given their proximity to the Arab League excluding them would be similar to inviting european nations to take them under their "protection" so they have a way to threaten the Arab League.
At the end of the day, the Arab League is not a truly International organization. It has a greater similarity with the European Union than with United Nations, after all, apart from being a defensive pact it seems to also be a pan-arab unification project (or at least it aspires to be so). Inviting people that are not part of a possible Pan-Arab Republic will dilute the purpose of the organization.
The Indian kingdoms have a lot of Muslims that are concerned about the position of the caliph, like real life. They want stability in the region so Mecca and Medina are safe. The Black Sea Pact is basically agreeing on borders and a possible alliance against Macedonia/Poland. Sudan and Somalia consider themselves Arab, to an extent, and want in to establish better relations and figure shit out like trade. New Afrika want their foot in the door to help liberate Africa and network with people.
Participation does not mean they want to join a hypothetical United Arab Republic.
Hejaz: It is a Caliphate and member of the Arab League. The ruler claims the title from relation to the previous holder who was vassal to the Ottomans. It backs Nejd to the hilt, and is quite vocal about the need to destroy Levant. Controls Mecca and Medina, granting it a great deal of soft power, especially after the destruction of all Muslim holy sites in Jerusalem. Otherwise it's a junior partner in terms of population and military.
@Fission Battery How widely recognized as the ruler of Hejaz as the Caliph by the Muslim world? Does the description on how Hejaz claimed the title mean that the Ottoman sultans never claimed the title of Caliph for themselves from the Cairo Abbasid caliphs in Mamluk Egypt when the Ottomans conquered Egypt in the DoD timeline? Or is the ruler of Hejaz claiming the title based on prophetic ancestry and his control of Islam's two holiest mosques similar to the real life attempt by the rulers of Hejaz to do so?
@Fission Battery How widely recognized as the ruler of Hejaz as the Caliph by the Muslim world? Does the description on how Hejaz claimed the title mean that the Ottoman sultans never claimed the title of Caliph for themselves from the Cairo Abbasid caliphs in Mamluk Egypt when the Ottomans conquered Egypt in the DoD timeline? Or is the ruler of Hejaz claiming the title based on prophetic ancestry and his control of Islam's two holiest mosques similar to the real life attempt by the rulers of Hejaz to do so?
The latter. When the Ottoman Empire was dissolved by General Hassan the rulers of Hejaz claimed the title for themselves. It accepted as legitimate, given their control of Mecca and Medina, and Nejd and Oman backing their claim. There are those that consider it an illegitimate power grab for prestige, but every year Hejaz stands is another year more people accept it as the new status quo.
Still funny how the first wide-scale application of combine arm is us who were just a backwater colony a few years ago.
Hmmm... Not really sure about inviting New Afrika, they don't really have cultural, ethic, religious ties or interest and capability to act in the region beyond the whole Pan-Africanism thing. And I think we should separate the Pan-Africanism to their own conference rather than having it right now when there is already a lot of topics to debate. Although maybe putting that on agenda now might be worth it?
Here is a plan for those hesitant to bring New Afrika to the conference. This plan includes all the Arab states of the MENA region and relevant left leaning non-Arab states. The goal is to have the socialist leaning Arab states band together, see the plans of the Arab League monarchies, confirm the borders discussed on our secret negotiations with the Black Sea Pact, and keep Sudan and Somalia neutral in the coming war between the socialist and monarchist states of the Arab League.
I do not want outright Entente puppets such as the Mughal Empire in the conferences and inviting states outside the MENA region will clutter the debate. The Indian Muslims have no more power to stop us from abolishing the Caliphate in Hejaz in the event of a socialist victory in the incoming war if we choose to do so than they did to stop Mustafa Kemal in OTL or General Hassan in this timeline from abolishing the Ottoman Caliphate.
Of course, we should consider the idea of abolishing the Caliphate carefully. Even Kemal did not rush to do so in OTL. It may be bad optics to have the Jewish Prime Minister of Egypt be the one to abolish an Islamic Caliphate. We could try to duck the issue by claiming the Caliphate fell with the Ottoman Empire and refuse to recognize Hejaz's claim.
Aragon is the big loser of the Sinai Crisis as I expected. It has totally lost its client states and all overseas territories. In the DoD mod, the Kingdom of Aragon will be replaced by Catalonia if it loses its overseas territories. In the DoD fan fork, a scripted civil war between the monarchy and republican rebels will occur if Aragon loses its overseas territories. Here, Aragonese monarchy's and the Barcelona antipapacy's standing has been severely damaged and there are two big socialist states next door. A socialist or liberal revolution could topple the monarchy. Alternatively, Aragon could limp along as a hermit kingdom.
Macedonia has lost a lot but it is still an empire with large holdings on much of Anatolia's coastline. It will likely focus on holding off the Black Sea Pact. As long as the Black Sea Pact stands, Macedonia will not have the time to seek the reconquest of Egypt.
The Arab Conference: A Chance for Peace or the Prelude to the Arab Unification War?
In OTL, Otto von Bismarck settled the question of who would lead a united Germany and what its borders would be first by defeating Austria before uniting most of the German states in a war against a common foe in France in the Franco-Prussian war. Here, circumstances forced us to focus on defeating the common foe of the Arab states before settling the question of what the united Arab state should be. We have been generally regarded a war with the Arab League monarchies after a successful war against the Christian League as inevitable in this thread but is there an alternate path?
The partition of the Arab League and the Lesser Arab Republic solution.
We know that the Arab League monarchies desired to crush the Yemeni republic, end the revolution, and restore the monarchy here. We could publicly declare a guarantee of protection toward Yemen and propose that the Arab League monarchies and socialist leaning states go their separate ways. We can then establish a smaller United Arab Republic out of the socialist leaning Arab states under the leadership of Egypt. The benefit is that we do not have to spend the effort to conquer the monarchies and deal with the large conservative leaning population of those monarchies. It would be much easier to consolidate the new UAR under socialist rule and it would still have many resources to command.
This solution is somewhat analogous to the Little or Lesser Germany solution favored by Bismarck. Bismarck favored the Little or Lesser Germany solution because he wished to ensure Prussian and Protestant dominance over the united German state and did not want to deal with all the Catholics that would enter Germany if Austria was incorporated. The downside is that the Arab League monarchies could still become rivals to the UAR in an Arab Cold War similar to the real life one between the Arab republics led by Nasser's Egypt and the traditionalist Arab monarchies led by Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the monarchies would have the chance to modernize themselves technologically with the aid of the Entente.
The Arab Unification War and the Greater Arab Republic solution.
We know the other Arab League are less technologically advanced than Egypt in the military department as seen in the Sinai Crisis. We also saw how the Arab League monarchies deal with fighting a more advanced force and we could develop strategies to counteract their strategies. We could fight the Arab League monarchies and try to overthrow them all in favor of Pan-Arab socialist rule. This would be the unification of most of the Arab world and the original plan. We would strike the monarchies before they could modernize. With the monarchies overthrown, we would remove a major threat to socialist rule in the Arab world. Historically, I do not think that most of the Middle East's massive oil fields were discovered yet by 1919 OTL and I do not if they have discovered yet in this timeline (they do not appear in Victoria 2 if I remember correctly) @Fission Battery but a greater United Arab Republic could be a great power by the end of the 20th century if it managed its oil wealth well and did not fall to the resource curse.
There are risks. The Arab monarchies may be less advanced than Egypt or the Christian League but fighting them would be challenging. In the Sinai Crisis, Egypt had only one front and one direction to deal with. In fighting the Arab monarchies, Egypt would have to deal with multiple fronts and fight over a much larger distance. The Egyptian government and military might not be fully united behind the war in the same way they were during the Sinai Crisis. Even if the Entente does not know about the Middle East oil fields, they may not look favorably on a socialist state aggressively expanding in the Middle East and may intervene directly or indirectly to support the Arab monarchies. If we do successfully conquer the Arab monarchies, we would be overstretched and have to deal with a large conservative population.
Yeah, the major oil fields in the Arabia Peninsula, and North Africa, haven't been found yet. There's been a few across MENA, smaller ones in Egypt and Morocco, but as far as the world's concerned Iran's the big oil producer for the region. The only use European empires have for Arabia is strategic ports, while North Africa's got grain and land they can tolerate settling.
Originally I intended to get to the confernece itself, however I realized that this should probably be voted on before getting to that. It's kind of important.
===
[] Plan comrades, allies and others
-[] Maghreb
-[] Morocco
-[] Iraq
-[] Funj Sultanate (Sudan)
-[] Adal Sultanate (Somalia)
-[] Iran
-[] Turkey
-[] New Afrika
=== Egyptian Syria, Spring 1919 - The Arab League Conference Part 1
===
After a series of quick debates it was decided that countries adjacent to the Arab League would receive invitations. They all had a keen interest in the outcome of the conference. Many in the party feared that leaving them out would risk intervention against Egypt and upset whatever agreement the conference reached. New Afrika's inclusion was strongly pushed by Hakim, when he heard that Chairman Pedro Cazalla was interested in attending. Cuba had gained associate status in New Afrika in anticipation of its expected independence.
The dispatches were sent out, responses prompt, and people got on the move, expecting to be at the conference within two weeks. It would have been short notice to attend a diplomatic conference, but all parties were already prepared to travel. Egypt's own delegation left Alexandria for Damascus. Nadir remained behind to maintain control over the government, while Hakim, Issa, Salaam would attend the conference. Khouri himself was already in the city with a portion of the Egyptian army, firmly in control of the city.
Palestine and Syria were under military occupation for the immediate future, but work was being done to recruit locals into a haphazard administration to keep control of the situation. Most importantly the surviving Levant soldiers were held in POW camps while their fate was decided. Southern Italian settlers fled ahead of Egypt's army, only to be left behind as the Crusader army collapsed and routed at Jaffa. Those that could fled north then to Cyprus, but the bulk of them were stuck in Palestine. What to do about the settlers was but one of the topics expected to be handled during the conference, among many others. The war against the Crusaders was over, now it was time for them to come together to fight over what the peace shall look like.
===
By ship the Egyptian delegation traveled to Jaffa. They spent time in Jaffa touring the former royal palace, ruined streets, and captured forts. Much of the city was in ruins from the fighting. Efforts to clear rubble were already well underway. There was the risk of unexploded bombs, so certain streets and buildings were closed off until it could be dealt with. Photographs were taken the whole time as the international press fought for pictures. Hakim along with other members of the delegation posed in front of captured Crusader vehicles and waving flags for striking pictures. Among them were more mundane ones of the delegation speaking with the locals, shaking hands, and walking among them.
It lasted a day before they departed for Damascus. Levant's train network was anemic, concentrated around the coast with a line to Jerusalem, which was damaged in the fighting. The dirt road to Damascus itself lacked maintenance. The Egyptian army had been trying to quickly repair it with the labour reserve clearing debris and foliage from the road while leveling it out. It was haphazard patchwork to make it easier to transport supplies but it'd done its job in making the road easier to travel.
===
By the end of February, Damascus was a hub of activity, far more than it'd seen in years under the colonial regime. The city had been left to wither as resources were pulled towards the coast. It was in far better shape than any city in Levant however, suffering from neglect rather than destructive malice. Its historic sites were left undisturbed and its old neighbourhoods still stood. The influx of people caused a stir of excitement among the local populace. The flags of Egypt and the Arab League were hung from windows and strewn over the city, many little more than hastily dyed cloth that waved proudly nonetheless. It was a much welcomed return of importance to the city.
Its streets were packed full of people, local and otherwise. The celebrations had died down since the initial liberation. Spirits were still high, even as people returned to their lives, breathing freer than they did before. The amount of money pouring in from soldiers and politicians was readily welcomed by them too.
When Hakim and the delegation arrived Khouri received them in a small ceremony, soldiers assembled outside the city to stand in salute to welcome the prime minister. The army band and choir loudly played The Internationale. Egypt was unabashedly socialist and wouldn't shy away from that fact, even as some members of the Arab League's army in attendance glared at the Egyptians.
The general welcomed his friend, shaking his hand and smiling. "I hope you don't mind that I got you more than a postcard," Khouri said under his breath, muffled by the roar of the crowd and band.
"I'll find a way to live," Hakim replied with a smile. "We're going to have to invent new medals to award you."
The two laughed as thousands of cameras flashed, capturing the scene. The ceremony continued for a short while, many more hands shaken and pictures taken, until they could finally depart into the city itself. The carriages of dignities drew crowds as the army cleared a path for them.
It wasn't until they reached a hotel that they could finally speak business. The army had seized control of it after the liberation of the city to provide housing for support staff and delegates. The local barracks were inadequate to house an influx of tens of thousands of people.
Once settled inside, they could speak business. Khouri gave them a run down of the situation in Syria. Damascus had been liberated by the local resistance which had organized into the Syrian National Congress. They had welcomed the combined Arab armies into the city as liberators and worked closely with the occupying armies. It was a provisional government hastily thrown together but acted quickly and had already sent its own delegation to attend the conference.
There was a lot of fraternization between all armies, despite differences in dialects between many of the rank and file soldiers. While spirits were high the differences in ideology were less easily overcome. There'd already been a few heated brawls that had to be broken up. It had been nothing serious, no one was hurt or worse. Hakim considered it a troubling if predictable development and hoped it wasn't a sign of things to come. The arrival of other delegations only threw more people into the potential pressure cooker, though thankfully the heat had yet to be turned on.
It was later in the night when Hakim, Issa, and Khouri met in private to speak further.
"The delegations invited favours us ever so slightly," Issa remarked, looking back over the list of attendees. "We may have the goodwill to hold onto our gains and keep the peace. Which way is the Syrian National Congress leaning?"
"They've been working closely with us," Khouri answered, raising a hand and turning it upwards. "While there's many members in their coalition they're showing a strong front. I believe that we can swing their support if we give them an equal say in any future united republic. What that looks like I'll leave to you."
"It may be premature to discuss a pan-Arab state," Issa replied with a frown. "We can't make promises for a government that doesn't exist, and may not exist."
"President Nagi was on board with the idea," Hakim interjected, leaning forward and gesturing to Issa. The Yemenite president had sent his congratulations when he heard about the revolution and more again when they achieved victory. He was expected to attend the conference in person. "As am I. It will happen, so it won't hurt to reach an understanding with interested parties."
"Let's convince Nejd to let us hold onto Palestine and Jordan before we start planning on unifying the whole peninsula. We can't put the cart before the horse," Issa shot back with a sigh. "They want the Jordan River and Jerusalem. We can't afford to make promises to uninvolved countries then have the conference award that territory to Nejd."
"I'm very aware of the matter at hand, Issa. I haven't lost sight of that," Hakim firmly replied, before looking at Khouri. "There's another matter to consider. I've promised Egyptian support to Yemen and the Crusaders have been dealt with. We should be making plans to handle that."
Issa shook his head. "You've promised to drag us into another war with our allies," he hissed in a low voice. "I have no love for the monarchists either, you know that, but following through on that will tear apart the League. It'd shatter any sense of Arab solidarity we've achieved. Provide support to Yemen maybe, but war is over the line."
"I see nothing wrong with it," Khouri immediately replied, scoffing at his friend. "They're allies of convenience that'll sell us out to the Entente the moment the cheque clears. We have to act now, rather than later. We have the support of the people. They're rally to us if we move to remove the monarchies."
"You think a war won't see Entente intervention?" Issa shot back.
"And you don't think peace will?" Khouri countered.
"I intend to honour my agreement, end of discussion. It'd take heaven and hell to move me from that decision. Your signature is on that secret treaty along with mine," Hakim said to Issa. "Nejd is not our ally. I expect it to turn into a thorn in our side if given the opportunity."
"Very well," Issa dropped the issue with a sigh, shaking his head. "Let's discuss the other attendees…"
The minister went over other delegations and what their priorities were. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Funj Sultanate, and Adal Sultanate wanted agreements on existing borders and closer ties to the Arab League through trade agreements. Iraq had expressed interest in possible military cooperation and office exchanges with Egypt and the Arab League. Its inability to project force was stung, especially when it failed to conquer Assyria. The presence of Turkish and Iranian troops was enough to make them stand down. While Turkey and Iran wanted support in their future war against Macedonia.
The rebuilding of Jerusalem was another serious issue, since nearly everyone wanted to see major sites rebuilt with as many original materials as possible. Who would govern the city was a serious concern too. It'd be a major diplomatic windfall to be the steward of the holy city. It was jointly occupied by Egypt, Maghreb, and the Arab League.
New Afrika wanted to establish military connections in the region. They were hopeful that Egypt would be interested in working together with them. They were interested in laying the groundwork for future insurgencies to take on Burgundy and Scandinavia's massive colonial empires. Trainers and bases in the region would go a long way towards achieving that goal, even if they were primarily focused on liberating the rest of the Caribbean.
There had been major news out of the monarchies of the Arab League. Nejd announced it'd secured marriage alliances with Hejaz and Oman, tying the royal families of all three countries together under King Harroun. In addition to the ties previously made with the exiled Yemenite royals, it meant Nejd was posed to possibly unite the whole Arab Peninsula under a single dynasty. It was unknown if the king planned on unifying the countries into a single kingdom or not. If he did it'd be the first true Arab Caliphate in hundreds of years.
"... When news of it broke the Islamists were buzzing with excitement," Khouri remarked. "Many former republicans are professing a sudden interest in a monarchy if it means they can make an Islamic state."
"That's extremely concerning," Hakim replied, lips pressed into a thin line. The possibility of a revolt crossed his mind. "Salaam's likely to make demands if we want to keep their support." If the war hadn't started they'd have been covering his ministry and no doubt dealing with a similar threat of insubordination. It was a remarkably shocking amount of restraint and control Salaam exercised over his party faction.
"I've prepared several measures to keep them under control. All it needs is your approval," Khouri said.
"We can't be too hasty," Issa interjected. "We can secure their support as long as we appease Salaam. There must be a few issues we can concede without giving up our overall program."
"It's taking an unnecessary risk and compromises with the revolution. You know as well as I do what his demands are," Khouri replied, jabbing a finger in Issa's direction.
"I'm suggesting diplomacy to prevent a possible civil war to avoid risking the revolution," Issa snapped back. "We secure peace now, consolidate, and then undermine their influence afterwards. It's slower but avoids rocking the boat too much."
Hakim raised his hands and motioned for his friends to lower their voices, silently urging them to calm themselves. "Let's consider our options first before deciding what to do…"
===
Islamist Soldiers
If fighting breaks out between Egypt and the Arab League there's the possibility of the Islamists going rogue, either as their own faction or to work with the monarchies. Khouri has suggested quick, decisive action be taken before there's a chance of that happening. While Issa advises caution and negotiating with Salaam first. He believes that any action taken against the Islamist soldiers will make Salaam's demands more outrageous.
You can pick as many as 2 options. Vote by plan
[ ] Arrest Officers
The Islamists will be singled out for a myriad of real and fake charges to justify their arrests. The soldiers under them will receive new officers drawn from other divisions. It'd leave Islamists rank and file intact but remove their leadership.
[ ] Demobilize Them
The Islamist reservists are demobilized. It'd force them to stand down under the pretense of beginning general demobilization and send them back home. Regular soldiers and officers will remain active however.
[ ] Dissolve and Shuffle
Predominantly Islamist divisions will be broken up and its soldiers reshuffled into other divisions. It'd be done under the pretense of filling in manpower shortages in other divisions. Islamists will still be in the army, but scattered.
[ ] Defund Islamist Paramilitary
Their paramilitary will no longer receive state funding, heavy weapons will be confiscated, and all reservists serving in it will be expected to join a different reserve branch. It'd be under the pretense that they performed poorly during the war. Soldiers and reservists can still be members though, in their own time.
[ ] Purge Them
Can't be taken with other options. No pretense or beating around the bush. Effective immediately, all Islamists are banned from the army. Their weapons will be confiscated, their officers arrested, reservist organizations dissolved, and disarmed soldiers sent back home with dishonourable discharges. Salaam will split the Islamists from the AENC and form the Muslim Brotherhood.
[ ] Do Nothing
Can't be taken with other options. No actions will be taken against them to avoid any risk of fracturing the AENC. Islamists will remain stationed where they are in Palestine and Syria. Islamists will remain in the AENC and Salaam will possibly cooperate with Hakim.
No point doing half measures or compromising with reactionaries who have done nothing but plot behind our backs and hinder much needed social reforms; disbanding them honorably from the army just means you get hundreds of mujhadeen fighters in your heart land and leaving them in leaves several daggers in your back if we fight the caliphate
Dismantle their power without being too over the top obvious about it. Doesn't dismantle the officers, but does make them useless by getting rid of their divisions and stuff so they can be drummed out later since they'll have nobody to lead.
We are not going to agree with any of Salaam's requests given that he is most likely to ask something akin to "women should have no rights" or "lets oppress some religious minorities" so purging them is not a bad option and the political repercussion of them splitting from the AENC to create an explicitly islamist party would most likely alienate moderate voters from islamist ideals.
Will a purge disrupt the effectiveness of the armed forces too much? Will it trigger a civil war in Egypt now? Will it set an unfortunate precedent in Egyptian politics removing military officers that have so far served with loyalty due to their politics or is it just like arresting the retiring royalist officers to remove a potential threat during the Sinai crisis? Questions to consider.
Right now I'm wary of out and out purging the Islamists, if only because we don't have an excuse to bandy about. That attempted massacre during the war, maybe?
