LordOfMurder
Bhaal
- Location
- Australia
Chasing awesome fight scenes is the very essence of a Rihaku quest.
A Simple Transaction I
- Thread starter Rihaku
- Start date
- Original
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
You mean literally what caused us to be in this situation to begin with, only with a 20% chance of death or crippling injury tacked on?
10% "quest ends" is not "a little risky"!!!!
Every choice we make will have the possibility of increasing our risk of death, either because of the action itself has it built in or because the action doesn't pursue advancement aggressively enough and gets us closer to falling off the treadmill. It simply becomes more blatant when the odds are baldly stated so the perceived risk gets inflated. This for example I would say is less cumulative risk than Peak Fish was with far higher rewards.
For this particular pick the gains come with the risk yes but taking low risk options while weak and higher risk when strong wouldn't necessarily change much, we're not going to get the same gains from this beast at full strength, it would require a stronger one so the odds per point of 'value' wouldn't actually shift hugely.
The main thing is about choosing when to try to sprint past the front of the treadmill and be safe for a while. I think this is a decent springboard but it could be there's better ones waiting if we play conservatively. I don't see that as guaranteed though.
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- Location
- Omniverse #1345
Then you are not very good at math, I'm afraid.
[X] The Plumed Offering
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
It must be snowing in hell, for the red option to be the path of safety and moderation. Still, this is a better result than expected for hunting without access to a tracking technique, and I'm honestly happy to just take the win and walk away Arete-positive, however tempting Second Stage and the other shinies dangling in front of us may be.
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
It must be snowing in hell, for the red option to be the path of safety and moderation. Still, this is a better result than expected for hunting without access to a tracking technique, and I'm honestly happy to just take the win and walk away Arete-positive, however tempting Second Stage and the other shinies dangling in front of us may be.
- Location
- Australia
It really is, though. 10% is a pretty narrow chance, it just feels big because you're worried about the consequences.
And that's besides the point - as I said, the quest, curses, and narrative we've built for Hunger thus far don't really lend themselves to peaceful gathering of small increments of power.
We'll always be taking risks. But by taking this one, right now, we can massively improve our chances of doing better in the future.
DarkSideBard
Flying, without moving on
[X] The Mire Wolf
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
[X] Evening Sky - Shine Bright - 2 Arete
Mire Wolf's time advantage over Plumed is entirely worth the introduction of a little risk. Tyrant's introduction of any death chance is not my favorite. Pristine Star is obvious, should be taken by any build that isn't Plumed + a 7 Arete. I think Shine Bright is preferable to Second Stage as a combo because it covers immediate healing utility in a synergistic way (which I would rather have covered with Ring of Blood :/). We literally just took a combat-relevant stats boost in the form of Amaranth Star + Age and Treachery; picking An actually good healing utility over Second Stage is fine. Plus, I want to avoid turning into a giant-snake-equivalent. Never helps, and might genuinely begin to progress Hunger's Bad Trauma Introspection on top of us taking Age and Treachery.
And also I think this is a good in to findross research, considering that we didn't save Total Eclipse. Going to need to happen sometime. As-is, Gisena is...too squishy. I mean, in a good way, but also in a bad way. Healing is only relevant when your companions can survive attacks.
Also also, I can't believe I never asked this, but does Gisena have access to Accretion? Could we teach her—is that an option?
(Also also also, my phone keeps correcting "Arete" to be in all caps, I think because of me using it to make builds for the JRPG Traitor CYOA. Which is a nice coincidence, because one of the possible grand antagonists is an Isekai Gamer "dropped off by a god", and as I was reading the CYOA, I was like..."oh! She's got Indenture and is just following through as hard as possible.")
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
[X] Evening Sky - Shine Bright - 2 Arete
Mire Wolf's time advantage over Plumed is entirely worth the introduction of a little risk. Tyrant's introduction of any death chance is not my favorite. Pristine Star is obvious, should be taken by any build that isn't Plumed + a 7 Arete. I think Shine Bright is preferable to Second Stage as a combo because it covers immediate healing utility in a synergistic way (which I would rather have covered with Ring of Blood :/). We literally just took a combat-relevant stats boost in the form of Amaranth Star + Age and Treachery; picking An actually good healing utility over Second Stage is fine. Plus, I want to avoid turning into a giant-snake-equivalent. Never helps, and might genuinely begin to progress Hunger's Bad Trauma Introspection on top of us taking Age and Treachery.
And also I think this is a good in to findross research, considering that we didn't save Total Eclipse. Going to need to happen sometime. As-is, Gisena is...too squishy. I mean, in a good way, but also in a bad way. Healing is only relevant when your companions can survive attacks.
Also also, I can't believe I never asked this, but does Gisena have access to Accretion? Could we teach her—is that an option?
(Also also also, my phone keeps correcting "Arete" to be in all caps, I think because of me using it to make builds for the JRPG Traitor CYOA. Which is a nice coincidence, because one of the possible grand antagonists is an Isekai Gamer "dropped off by a god", and as I was reading the CYOA, I was like..."oh! She's got Indenture and is just following through as hard as possible.")
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
You don't think the hellish exhaustion modifier isn't worse than a one time 1/10 dice roll? I think it's quite a bit worse personally.
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
Not even close. See, we had multiple options that would have at least partially mitigated that and we never chose the optimal one until sleeping in. So.. no. Not nearly as risky.
They would have done some, they wouldn't have nearly solved the actual problem though. This is basically what I mean about having the odds stated straight up changing perceptions however. The cost of exhaustion has been more diffuse and widespread, effecting everything that's happened and making it all much worse and more likely to lead to our failure while constraining our future options, it's much harder to quantify that as a straight number though. So everyone will have different opinions on how bad it was whereas 10% is 10%.
- Location
- Australia
Look man, i'm not saying it's not a risk. But you should know that your roll is pretty unlucky.
You roll 10 times, there's about a 35% chance you get zero ones.
And we're not rolling ten times, we're rolling once. It's a 90% chance we walk away better off than we do under the other options.
OctarineShrike
Avatar of Mandos
You mean 50%.
50% Chance of Unambiguous victory.
30% Chance we get something stacking on top of Exhausted or swap it with something else
10% Chance we get something even worse than Exhausted on top of Exhausted or swap exhausted for something worse
10% Chance of Death
- Location
- Australia
I'm saying that if we don't die, we walk away better off than we do under the other options.
We gain rank, we gain an extremely powerful ability, and we gain a full heal.
And it's not as though Mire Wolf is free of risk either. It just doesn't carry the risk of dying
Talace
It must be raining somewhere else!
This point recognizes that there is a net increase in risk of death as we grow in strength and inevitably face greater and greater enemies. What this point doesn't recognize is that increases past the mean still increase risk-- and many of us view that to be an increase past an acceptable degree. We are currently reducing the risk of death with most of our choices, either pursuing utility effects or increasing base power, which naturally mitigates the increasing risk over time because we too grow stronger in concert with the increase in difficulty.
In addition, it's contestable that not running as aggressively as possible will get us kicked off the treadmilll. Aside from the fact that we're probably not behind the curve, there's a 4/10 chance that our progression gets hampered in a meaningful way due to complications, and a 1/10 chance that we stop progressing entirely. The other two options pursue strength in other ways, with the Plumed Offering giving us Arete to take more powerful options in the future, and the Mire Wolf gives us two selections. As such, the comparative benefit Tyrant Beast has over the other two would be an additional +0.5 Arete, reduced Apocryphal proc chance, and resetting A Hunger, Sated. This does not outweigh leaving our companions alone and in a vulnerable state for 10 hours, risking death ourselves, and guaranteed permanent damage for Letrizia.
Rihaku
The Internet
@Simon_Jester : Yes, you will eventually have access to 7 Arete or 2/3-pick options that can resolve your amputations. And of course many of the 25 Arete options already can (Total Eclipse, Pillars, Ruling Ring)
But is leaving Letrizia wounded for several days really a win? That's quite a lot of Sated time to lose, and more time for the Apocryphal to marshal its forces again...
GISENA: Hm? I think you mean 'the perfect amount of squishy!'
Hm, I don't think Lilea would shout at Seram for something like this even if he's a multiple offender. She'd probably try to get through to him with diligent & gentle sincerity, perhaps by preparing him an expertly cooked (dry) ramen dish herself! And if that failed, still she would press on undeterred with kindness and forethought, while respecting his boundaries!
What a scary opponent.
But is leaving Letrizia wounded for several days really a win? That's quite a lot of Sated time to lose, and more time for the Apocryphal to marshal its forces again...
GISENA: Hm? I think you mean 'the perfect amount of squishy!'
Hm, I don't think Lilea would shout at Seram for something like this even if he's a multiple offender. She'd probably try to get through to him with diligent & gentle sincerity, perhaps by preparing him an expertly cooked (dry) ramen dish herself! And if that failed, still she would press on undeterred with kindness and forethought, while respecting his boundaries!
What a scary opponent.
Dark Abstraction
Infrequent Participant
- Location
- United States
For all the concern that we were on the precipice of a death-spiral, I don't understand the votes for the Tyrant Beast where there is a 40% chance of making the death spiral harder to escape, and a 10% chance of death and quest termination outright.
I'll freely admit that the Mire Wolf has a 20% chance of making things harder, but it's still 1/3rd less likely to proc than the equivalent for the Tyrant, and doesn't even risk the other two, far more terrible, dangers.
I'll freely admit that the Mire Wolf has a 20% chance of making things harder, but it's still 1/3rd less likely to proc than the equivalent for the Tyrant, and doesn't even risk the other two, far more terrible, dangers.
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Speaking from the perspective of someone who slogged through all of Ward, that may not be the best example!
Still, there's a lot of inferential power inherent in even possessing the ability to heal. Seram extracted aid from the Sorceress Council despite the Brand, though he had limited resurrection rather than healing, a more valuable service. A lot of Shine Bright's value depends on how good the Human Sphere's healthcare is, but it's at least a noble gesture in the face of the Decimator's Affliction. By exerting himself, Hunger could nourish the world his presence drains by slow degrees.
- Location
- The Surface Of A Hostile Planet
[X] The Mire Wolf
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
[X] Evening Sky - Shine Bright - 2 Arete
What if we didn't risk dying? Food for thought.
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
[X] Evening Sky - Shine Bright - 2 Arete
What if we didn't risk dying? Food for thought.
- Location
- Australia
You're comparing the marginal benefit of hunting the Tyrant against the marginal benefit of both other options at once.
The marginal benefit of Tyrant over Plumed Offering is that it gets us 0.5 Arete and an extra choice, and the marginal benefit of Tyrant over Mire Wolf is 1 Arete.
This is in addition to the other benefits you mentioned, such as the reduced Apocryphal proc-chance, and resetting A Hunger.
Again, the great benefit of Tyrant is that it gives us a lot more breathing room in the aftermath than the other options do.
- Location
- Canada
Let's analyze the options:
We do also get the chance to end the suffering of that poor regenerating beast! Poor thing...
I know I want Mire Wolf, but in term of powers, I am very uncertain. I guess, I'll go with the path which spend a minimum amount of Arete:
[X] The Mire Wolf
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
[X] Forebear's Blade - Second Stage - 2 Arete
The safest option but it cost us and we only get 1 selection. We do get 0.5 Arete from it... and money, I guess?
We do also get the chance to end the suffering of that poor regenerating beast! Poor thing...
20% chance of complications is bad, but in the grand scheme of things it's probably worth it? We get 2 selections, we don't lose anything and we only spend 2 hours, minimizing the chances of an attack on our companions.
10% chance of death. NO.
This solves our problem entirely at no Arete cost, but it's very slow.
Allows us to heal Letrizia fast and open a path towards unlocking findross, but doesn't do anything for our own wounds.
Insanely strong for 2 Arete. Double our health pool while giving us a conditional form of healing. We're even arguably stronger in our second form, plus it unlocks multiple new options! Sadly, it doesn't actually help us heal Letrizia, but if we get 2 picks we can get another option that does that.
It's very good at protecting the people we care about and the stat boosts are nice, but in term of personal power this is an extremely inefficient use of Arete.
Very strong combat boost that also provides personal healing. 7 Arete is a lot to spend when we're trying to save for a 25 Arete effect, though... Also, it doesn't do anything for Letrizia, though with 2 picks that's probably fine.
I know I want Mire Wolf, but in term of powers, I am very uncertain. I guess, I'll go with the path which spend a minimum amount of Arete:
[X] The Mire Wolf
[X] Evening Sky - Pristine Star
[X] Forebear's Blade - Second Stage - 2 Arete
Rihaku
The Internet
On the other hand, the moral dilemma of how much healing one should do... is one huge pandora's box! Something you could avoid, by taking Undying Vanguard! Heal only your loyal companions, make them as tanky as you with all the utility that implies, and gain a considerable amount of stats leaving you stronger than before! Since you have the Evening Sky, this option synergizes rather well with your past picks, and will only be even better once you get the ++++Constiution from its pre-reqs!
It also gives +.25 Rank! And what did you do for +.25 Rank last time? Killed a promising lass through age and treachery, and caught one whopper of a fish! Both risky actions in and of themselves...
A moderate complication is not actually likely a net negative in comparison to the other gains offered by tyrant.
It's a question of overall effects though, even discarding everything else we've currently got a peer scaling (For the near-mid term) enemy that's going to grow at the same rate regards of how fast we ourselves work. Yes every option increases our power, that doesn't mean that our odds are necessarily going up though, depending on the time per gain they could instead be falling.
Our companions are very unlikely to face much trouble, there's an easy pick that option can take which would mean no permanent damage to her. So we circle around to the death issue again, which as I said how great the risk is in comparison to the gains depends on what you think about our current long term prospects. Personally if things continue along the lines as they have thus I think we're over 30% to die within two months.
It's a question of overall effects though, even discarding everything else we've currently got a peer scaling (For the near-mid term) enemy that's going to grow at the same rate regards of how fast we ourselves work. Yes every option increases our power, that doesn't mean that our odds are necessarily going up though, depending on the time per gain they could instead be falling.
Our companions are very unlikely to face much trouble, there's an easy pick that option can take which would mean no permanent damage to her. So we circle around to the death issue again, which as I said how great the risk is in comparison to the gains depends on what you think about our current long term prospects. Personally if things continue along the lines as they have thus I think we're over 30% to die within two months.
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