Cyricubed
Residant Bird.
- Location
- United States
- Pronouns
- He/Him/Birb
@Byzantine Give me your thoughts on Nanimani aaaannnd Tykan
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Oh... Right. Probably shouldn't sheep you. I'm just used to it at this point lol. Weird not to be able to trust you.
[x] Lynch QTesseract
@QTesseract was probably the better vote because I think I've seen less of them. A reads list would be nice. They said they were working on something iirc, but I don't think we ended up seeing it?
InterstellarHobo
Cosmic Vagrant
- Location
- No Fixed Planetary System
I've dropped to merely ok with a Byz lynch, and I think there are probably better lynches to go for.
I'm going to change my vote soon, but it'll take some time to decide where and I'm busy atm.
Not nulling, as I'm still ok with a Byz lynch
I'm going to change my vote soon, but it'll take some time to decide where and I'm busy atm.
Not nulling, as I'm still ok with a Byz lynch
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
I can't read Nani at all. Like I've seen all of their posts, but I just have no idea what they are aiming for.
Tykan is newish, and has made very little impact, seemingly taking the opposite approach to my "never shut up". I did like them noting the discrepancy with Rosen targetting one bad response to the questionaire but not Comi's equally bad one ( from his point of view). This could be scum trying to take advantage of a slip, but the timing for it seems odd - I very much doubt Rosen is going to be rammed through as first lynch this game after identical behavior last game showed town. Otherwise not really much, nothing I see that's indicative of anything.
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
Cyri is apparently really good, so if it was as easy as teaming with him a couple times I would be surprised.
I am noting that you two are publicly playing up distancing, though.
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Seems pretty hamfisted for my playstyle, but I see where you're coming from, yeah.
Cyricubed
Residant Bird.
- Location
- United States
- Pronouns
- He/Him/Birb
You overestimate me at your own danger young one.
Mainly it was me noting slight sus that 1k was making a very sly attempt at linking me to her based on last two games behavior. It was public but still, make what you will of it.
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Nanimani
Probably listening to music
- Pronouns
- She/Her
Okay, it's been like sixteen hours since I looked at the thr...oh...
Why do I let myself get so far behind? Okay, let's see how much time I have to read thr-
oh
Wait, no, I saw in the Discord Happery was extending the day.
Okay, one full day. Enough time to not need to rush, then.
Why do I let myself get so far behind? Okay, let's see how much time I have to read thr-
oh
Wait, no, I saw in the Discord Happery was extending the day.
Okay, one full day. Enough time to not need to rush, then.
Cyricubed
Residant Bird.
- Location
- United States
- Pronouns
- He/Him/Birb
I see, exceptionally surprising and unexpected
Nanimani
Probably listening to music
- Pronouns
- She/Her
dis b da bad argument
In a vaccuum, the chances for any three players to all be town may be low, but that's in a vaccuum. I could just as easily pick you, Cyricubed, and say, T-name who I cannot remember. There's a bit less than a 1 in 3 chance that you're all town, so it's likely one of you's scum, right?
Or maybe picking out meaningless statistics is a rather suboptimal scumhunting method.
But is he wrong, though?
Ah, so a "This totally isn't me lying"
Hum... Wait, does that mean vanillas should claim power roles?
I'm actually a fan of people going after others hard. It's why I'm so easily swept up in Nictis's pace. But the reasons I saw for both Daw and 1K's pushes were bad, the two of Rosen and BB were way too in-synch and controlling town with said pushes, and kinda sideswiped away accusations against the other. Not like, big arguments, but like they're not worthy of being mentioned.
So that's a biiit of an oversimplification there
Oh, so you actually did do that? My notes said so, but considering how fully you transitioned to BB/Byzantine as primary scum reads with like 33% of that talk aiming at Rosen, I was beginning to think I read wrong.
[X] Lynch Nictis
Just updating the vote.
I'd also be fine with QT, but Comi's a bit too valuable for analysis to waste on a "You're not posting" D1. Usually lynching a townie Comi comes with a pretty huge consolation prize, but it wouldn't do that now. I'd be more amenable to that path later if they stay inactive, but later is later, and later is not today.
Others I'd be fine with include LDJ, Cyricubed... There's actually a rather high amount of newbies in this game. Feels like a solid third of people I'd be against D1 lynching just off policy.
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I haven't really got much to say apart from the fact that I agree that Meso VT claim was odd, but unlike to some others, it appears more as a joke to me than anything scummy. Beyond that, nothing else has stood out apart from what I've already mentioned.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I should probably let this go, since it isn't really relevant anymore, but I'm not going to. You have misunderstood my point entirely. I was not arguing that one of them must be scum, nor was I discussing it in a vacuum.
My point was that there were two possible scenarios under consideration. In one of them Dawiusz was scum and everyone else under consideration would have had to be town for that to make sense. In the other one, he was town. That scenario is compatible with scum or town alignments for every other player under consideration, including that all of them were town.
That means of the eight possible arrangements of alignments of the other participants, only one was compatible with a scum read on Dawiusz, and that one was also compatible with a town read on him.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I suggested Byzantine, Broken Base, and Rosen could all be on a team together. Rosen then said that was unlikely for reasons based on the interactions between Byzantine and BB, so our discussion narrowed down on those interactions. Or that's how I remember it anyway.
Nanimani
Probably listening to music
- Pronouns
- She/Her
But you were using this to argue that to argue that he must be town, which means one or more of the other three must be scum. It's a chain of "This scenario is more likely, so the scenario that is more likely if X is true is more likely" which... Jeez, I can't word that right.
That one post is a response to the question of why you think he's town, which... Honestly, I stared into space for a few seconds trying to put it into words, since it looks reasonable. Eight configurations to one. However, it's not just... Fuck, I'm arguing against my own point considering the the preliminary scumteam reading I've got, but this feels wrong, and I can't word why.
Right, let's just try to understand it first. Let's accept that the town/town/town/scum framing is too limiting and cast it off. You're also arguing in other posts, though, that all four of them being town is too limiting, so there has to be at least one scum in the group. Broken Base is on more scumteam possibilities, thus is the most likely to be scum, correct? That's what I recall you arguing, at least. But when you come up with the BB/Rosen/Byzantine scumteam you postulated earlier, that's like... Just casting all the "As many possible setups as possible" aside. Even in the singular everyone in that but the now-Ossha being Town, there's still a great number of possible setups regarding how the other town and scum are arranged, while the setup you postulate reduces it down to one but it's not like reducing it down to one possibility is a bad thing if that one possibility is incredibly likely, but... It feels like you're using "X scenarios exist, with Y commonalities" to find the most likely setup within that, then stating that it's the most likely scenario for the whole game.
I dunno, sorry for the wall of text. I can't think straight now, and it doesn't make sense because I should be able to, this isn't that hard.
After closing my eyes and just thinking for a bit, the best I can sum up is that you're taking a small group, then discarding the least likely scenarios as not going to happen. But there's a bit of a difference between unlikely and disproven.
Nanimani
Probably listening to music
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I really need to go back and read that sometime when I can think. It doesn't *sound* like interactions between X and Z can render XY an unlikely team when both X and Y are against Z, but maybe it was the exact scenario you proposed. I did kind of agree with... was it Rosen? Who said that specifically going to all this trouble for a slight amount of distancing was a bit convoluted, but that doesn't seem to be what you're saying so aaghadfahdf
CTRosen
Rock Man
- Location
- Northwest PA
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I had to go back and look for what meso was talking about here myself.
Basically the gist of what meso is saying is that Broken Base initially pushed a lynch on Byzantine but eventually backed off as a form of distancing. Since it seems like a fairly obvious plot to hatch, I point out that I don't think BB would try to do something so rash on D1.
I had never been against Byzantine or Broken Base being scum individually at any point (though to be fair I do Town-read them both rn), but I was against them both being scum. What you're saying with all the XYZ stuff isn't really how it went.
- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Oh definitely. I suspect he's town, but I don't think we can be sure. (Though his subsequent play has made me think he's likely town, just because his actions seemed a lot more like a new townie trying to scum hunt than something someone backed up by a team would try.)
Basically, Rosen said that there wasn't sufficient benefit in targeting Byzantine and switching away to Dawiusz in order to distance herself. And I agree, but she accomplished more than just distancing. She short circuited the wagon on Byzantine that had been dominating the thread and got a wagon started on Dawiusz.
This is all speculative, but let's assume for the moment BB was scum, and so is Byzantine. Scum really can't afford to allow a day one scum lynch, so when Dawiusz starts a push against Byzantine and it starts to gain steam, BB needs to try to defuse it. If she'd attacked Dawiusz directly it would be very apparent what was happening. So she first backs the push against Byzantine without giving any solid scum tells that might be useful later, then switches over to Dawiusz and gets that wagon started.
So I don't think scum!BB would engage in all this to distance herself from Byzantine. I think she distanced herself from Byzantine in order to make an attempt to short circuit that wagon less obvious.
Rosen pushed back hard against this idea both when I suggested it and when Dawiusz did. So the idea that they are all allied seems kind of an obvious theory . Of course, this is just a low information guess. It is possible that BB was entirely on the level. She thought Byzantine seemed scummy, then changed her mind and decided Dawiusz seemed scummy instead. And Rosen just perceives the situation more accurately than I do.
I don't think any of this is remotely solid enough to act on, but it seemed like the sort of dynamic that we should keep an eye out for during this game to see if more information supporting it shows up, or if it gets contradicted by later facts.
Nictis
Best Sidekick
- Location
- Ninja Dave's Cookies
- Pronouns
- Any
Alright, I'm home now. Kinda tired at the moment, so I'll just play catch up and post a short readslist either before I fall asleep or when I finish catching up. If anyone has any questions for me, feel free. I probably (won't) answer, and am looking forward to seeing what people consider topical.
I can say that 1K is going to be at the top of my scum list however.
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Because they made a post going 'first' or because of other reasons that I hope are more sensible?
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I mean it's a pretty good reason tbh
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Really? Seems like a downright terrible reason to me. Scum reading someone for an irrelevant joke seems to be bad for town in my books.
- Location
- Hell
- Pronouns
- She/Her
I was joking, forgot my
and no edits
- Location
- Omniverse #1345
It finally hit me what felt off about Meso. It feels like he started with the conclusion and tried to work up an argument for why it made sense, but couldn't come up with a good one. So he tried throwing numbers out there hoping it would make everyone glaze over and not pay attention to the fact that any combination is, naturally, equally likely in a void. And that this isn't a void anyway. And scum can coordinate while town cannot - that makes it likely that if scum were involved it was preplanned to some degree, which makes trying random distributions even less wise. So...
[X] Lynch mesonoxian
He's making a really bad argument and using stats to back it up. It's a pretty common gaslighting trick, I don't think I've seen someone do it in the few mafia games I've read through, but no reason it wouldn't make a decent trick for scum. The trick is that you can't use statistics which naturally presupposes all scenarios are equally likely - then start throwing out scenarios as unlikely, then claim something matters due to "the number of scenarios left". That's utter nonsense. Like worse the Nictis's usual railroading.
[X] Lynch mesonoxian
The wagon was literally two people in the first two hours of day 1. (Also I'm a noob and getting unfortunate attention is to be expected, Daw had the same thing happen.)
IH started the push (and in fact is the only one still on me). Daw was trying to jump on the wagon without actually joining it, which was what was strange from my point of view. But a Day 1, day 1 lynch from the first few hours? BB is too good to panic that easily and quickly, even if I was scum with her.
He's making a really bad argument and using stats to back it up. It's a pretty common gaslighting trick, I don't think I've seen someone do it in the few mafia games I've read through, but no reason it wouldn't make a decent trick for scum. The trick is that you can't use statistics which naturally presupposes all scenarios are equally likely - then start throwing out scenarios as unlikely, then claim something matters due to "the number of scenarios left". That's utter nonsense. Like worse the Nictis's usual railroading.