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A Game of Crowns (Mafia)

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6 Hours 30ish minutes from this post until end of day.

I really have to sleep now... so I'll try and be back before end of day... but no promises.

I'm not a fan of the Absum lynch now, its very all-in, if they are scum well its intensely good, if they are town game's just over. I think we can more accurately rate if its a ruse or not tomorrow so I'd prefer I'm lynched over them in total honesty. So do as you will with that.
 
Hopefully my last post for the night.

Absum: Is either the Doctor or has done a pretty good job of seeding that into things. Probably Town.
ComiTurtle: Still iffy, but latest is a good feeling and I can sorta see an attempt at pulling attention from him if not from Ducks.
DimensionalGuy: Will get a good clap from me if scum, pretty sure is Town.
Happerry: My current default lynch, I'm not really seeing anything that makes me think 'Town' and while there isn't a lot to say Scum either, I can't say I like the development on their Meso suspicion, the statement of Left not mentioning them as Wine instead of just assuming Happerry was missed, or the weak attempt at pulling attention away from a potential Left lynch.
Ban: Comi might have a point, but personally Ban's suspicion of me and Evenstar felt natural to me. Well, understandable. My biggest issue is his support for a DG lynch.
Est: I really wish I could say Town or Scum or anything really. If someone wants to make a case, I'm open to it but I don't think it's worth the time right now.


I think that's everything I wanted to touch on. I hope it was.
 
ComiTurtle said:
Could you link your original reason vs Est? Since you said you were using the same logic you did before?
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InterstellarHobo said:
Honestly, there's a fair amount that's definitely fishing for information. There's a decent amount more that's quite possibly circumspect fishing for information. This alone is making me scumlean.
Also, Est's posting has been very low impact, and they haven't really pressed any argument to speak of.
Day 1 they do argue against the -Rosen lynch, but they are drawn away by commitments for too long to make a difference.
Day 2 their posts are barely above zero-information, and they don't argue for their chosen lynch at all.

The scum-explanation for Est's behavior applies to literally anyone who didn't follow the -Rosen lynch. There's a bit of suspectness in how halfhearted it was, but... that's weak reasoning. Really weak. That chunk can't honestly be considered scum indicative.

I'm considering switching from Absum to Est. Gonna look at one more first, and hope there's an actually compelling case for someone.
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Well, having had more time I now definitely think it was a mistake and I should have tried something else. I blame my failure to realize this on a lot of my attention being spent considering what to do if Nictis + ES are scum (as I was pretty convinced of that) and trying to find their teammate rather than considering what to do if they weren't (I now think it's also a mistake in that context but still much less of one). I saw my claim more as informing Town of the time limit initially (I felt it should be rather obvious by now to scum that I was important enough to kill), but I think Comi is right and I was too influenced by my own knowledge.

I think people shouldn't give up just yet, because there could still be another protective (not super likely if ES is town but eh), because I don't believe Nictis' claim is true (sorry, I don't believe it even if you are town) and we have two lynches to find the RB'er even if both of the previous things are wrong.

I'll try to get some analysis in when I get home, but it'll be close to Day end so not sure if I'll manage in time.
 
ComiTurtle said:
Man... I really need to be asleep... I think I've figured out my problem this game though, at least for this phase, because I've been progressively becoming more and more ill over the phase. And I hate being ill, normally doesn't fuck with my head though...

Lets see what quotes I've gathered from today I guess?


Wait... really only 4?

Whatever... lets look at them I guess.

Full clarity I'm using my opinion that Nictis and Evenstar are town in this analysis for why things are suspect.



Ban has been very background this game, for school reasons as mentioned, but we can still analyze what little posts we get, and this is just a blatant set-up question. Targeting Evenstar (who I easily connected to Nictis since like midday 2, with suspicions reading day 1. This connection pointed the pair strongly towards, in the VIP design, that one of them is likely the VIP.) Evenstar has claimed roleblocked not sure before or after this post, but since I believe it essentially confirmed that roleblocker is scum in the VIP design, that its a very simple set-up. Block them so they have no information (though... I'll be honest if I wasn't so basic I feared that roleblocker may be a scum investigator as part of it since they killed Nanimani, however, the low power of my own role suggests that that wouldn't be likely given the one confirmed point of info I have.) Did I actually say my point in this paragraph of asides? Basically scum roleblocks person they think is the VIP that has some suspicions on them from the general public to try and push the lynch force them to respond and create the easy argument of false roleblock claim for town-cred and no night information.



Basically I see this a continued egging of the fairly easily analyzable Nictis/Evenstar pair, with free distance from Absum another suspicious player to do so for them.



So... the point of the ask was to see if they would come forward, this post kinda hurt the gambit of trying to make it seem like the roleblocker could get away with claiming town roleblocker. Directly stating being unable to believe that such a role is town makes that unlikely bait to become nearly impossible.



I am confused about where this vig talk came from.

I will say that near the current posts I was feeling an Absum/1k scum team, but 1k voting post their reveal kinda broke that theory.
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That's pretty easy to explain - I scum read Eva and by association was suspicious of Nictis. Yeah, we know they're Town now - well, we hope we do - but at the time Eva was my biggest scum read.
 
Inserted tally
Adhoc vote count started by BanTheFairyKing on Oct 24, 2019 at 8:17 AM, finished with 376 posts and 11 votes.
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Uhhh let's see. Honestly the only lynch I'm liking is the Happerry one, but Eva's behavior around him made me hesitant. I don't think you're lynching your mason buddy though, so

[X] Lynch Happerry
 
I haven't quite decided on whom I believe we should begin looking at as potential scum, so I will simply add to the Absum vote. No need to risk a last-minute tie. I will be here for these last two hours of live if anyone has anything to talk about, or wants me to look over someone's posts either before the day ends or while the Night is ongoing.

[X] Lynch Absum
 
Uh hello? The current rationale for voting me seems to be "well if Absum is Town we lose anyway" which is not per se true. And even if I was scum you could figure it out the next Day.
 
This is rather unfortunate. Of the two, Absum gives a more town read going through their posts than Happery (who is null), but with Comi's vote I can no longer switch to Happery without causing a tie.
 
I think Absum is making an honest roleclaim, I don't think leaving him alive for a day is a big threat, and

[X] Lynch Happerry
 
Huh, that was a quick turnaround. Did you guys not null? I could've sworn you had voted before.
 
I decided to plop that down immediately so Pyrros could swap without tying. Apparently meso had the same problems

Now to finish the rationale.

I think Absum is making an honest roleclaim, I don't think leaving him alive for a day is a big threat, and I'm deeply skeptical of Nictis' analysis of the game state.

On the other hand, I don't have any idea why anyone has been townreading Happerry.
 
I was previously voting Est, which was little better than a Null. My swap didn't risk a tie, and since I happened to be reading the thread when you posted...
 
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