*looks at votes*
In order:
Having read the arguments in favor of Diplomacy, I feel compelled to add a reminder:
Please be aware that whatever you choose to do here will be more of a conversation than a directive, and is basically almost certain to not have consequences beyond this Regular Fleet.
Might it work immediately? Probably not. But if you want to play the long game...
This is something to keep in mind.
Possibly, yes, but we have enough of the Shiplords' motives from the Tribute statement that anything new we learn here isn't going to gain us as much, IMO, as some of the alternatives on offer. More fundamentally, Why strikes me as distinctly passive and reactionary. Why doesn't take any proactive steps; it doesn't seek to make any changes to what's happening. It's just a second verse, same as the first (and in fact might be another round of verse). This moment is pivotal, enough that I think we can aim higher than merely trying to gather more data.
I don't really agree.
Even in the things we have actually spent effort and Insight studying, like their military, which is a quantifiably material subject, something like Soultear pops up out of the figurative blue to display just how spotty our understanding actually is.
We plain don't know enough.
And I'd rather get more information before acting here, so as to get the intended effect rather than an opposite.
I think we have a unique opportunity here to cause an ideological split in the Shiplord hierarchy. There probably already is a minority faction in the Shiplord ranks (or possibly in their civilian infrastructure, if they have one), people who are either more morally enlightened or at least skeptical, who don't necessarily buy the party line about current "best practices" when it comes to Tributing: the Shiplord perspective interlude, if nothing else, made it clear that the Shiplords are not an interstellar hivemind, and where there are individuals there are different perspectives, and therefore disagreements. What a dramatic Forgiveness or Chastisement could do is embolden this minority, if/when the confrontation gets back to the Shiplord Entire. It certainly won't cause a rift immediately, but as the pressure of the Secret War begins to mount it might be enough to cause a schism or even a rebellion.
Wouldn't that be something?
This is unlikely to be the first time a Regular Fleet has lost ships to a Tribute Cycle species or gotten trashed by one. I'm pretty sure there are G6 nations capable of doing the same like the S-race. It's not even the first time they've lost ships to Practice weaponry though I suspect at no other time has it been quite this dramatic.
Nevertheless this doesn't actually change their known projections. And what we know of Shiplord society doesn't actually show much evidence of minority factions or fractures to be exploited.
Not when Tribute Fleet duty, where you are sent out with deliberately subpar weaponry and guaranteed to eventually die in the course of your duty, is a contested posting.
Any such fractures may well have to be created. Hence we need more knowledge.
Like I said in the paragraph you quoted, I don't expect this to have an immediate effect, but combined with other events, such as for example the entire galaxy rising up as one in rebellion (which is our plan as of Unknown Potential) it could help move the needle within Shiplord culture.
And, while it's possible that Shiplord culture is as homogeneous as you are suggesting, I'm not sure it's likely. I'd say it's as least as likely that there is a minority, one that's not vocal, that could be in opposition to current Tribute philosophy. Even in human culture you can see examples of this happening. In human cultures, slavery was considered socially acceptable for thousands of years, right up until it wasn't. That sea change didn't happen overnight, in that there were always groups, sometimes quite large and vocal ones, against slavery, but it wasn't until critical masses of people started to change their way of thinking, helped in no small part by the Industrial Revolution making slavery economically infeasible, that there was a permanent sea change in opinion.
And this is a change that we want to make available, if only because it will make the Secret War more winnable. As it stands, the current plan forces us to fight and likely genocide the entire Shiplord race, and every one of the Shiplords will know it. By presenting ourselves instead as being solidly against an aspect of Shiplord culture, rather than the Shiplord species, we can appear to leave them a route for their species to survive, whether or not they are ultimately allowed to.
I think you are getting rather ahead of yourself.
Until we demonstrate the ability to do much the same to a War Fleet, this is pretty much in their spectrum of projected possibilities. We've demonstrated they have to take us seriously not that we're a peer or near peer.
Beat a War Fleet, or half a dozen Regulars, then offer Diplomacy to have people consider the offer seriously.
Besides, we have spent the last fifteen years studying this precise military scenario, and we still managed to get blindsided by Soultear weaponry.
I am not particularly confident of our ability to find and exploit fractures in Shiplord society blind.
Note I'd like to caution is that there is no guarantee there is anything like a significant minority faction to be exploited. Even normal human societies in adversity have displayed startling levels of internal unity against external blandishments.
Like the Roman Republic after the horrific losses at Cannes and Hannibal offering them terms.
And its not like the Shiplords, who employ memetic warfare and psyops against Tribute Races, are going to be unaware of the possibility of it being used against theme. Shiplord society might well be as united behind their purpose as Practice humanity is behind their own.
In the meantime?
Information will help us refine our own national strategies military and diplomatic. Determine what's possible. Whether we can talk them down from this shit or if we will have to dictate terms from a dreadnought above their capital.
A bird in hand and all that.