This was largely posted yesterday and has been tweaked in context of the reveal. I want to touch on Absum's post, because it's the only pro-BB scum argument outside the vet one that has actually been thrown in my direction- and as I'll touch on I think DG's reveal makes that argument particularly suspect.
Broken Base: Up until her second to last post I would've said town, but I really don't like the entirely unnecessary putting someone 1 vote from lynch. I also didn't like her saying that she probably gonna lynch me or DG without really giving any reasons, previously, especially seeing as she kept it between me and DG even after she said she'd forgotten Dovah was in the game and calling them out. Not sure about actual scum read yet though.
I'll concede this hasn't been my best game overall, but let me elucidate on my exact reasons for suspecting Absum and DG- overall I find it incredibly plausible that cult is going to be in the background and incredibly floaty (and looks like I was right lol), because cult leaders don't want to draw attention to themselves, and DG and you had been among the floatiest players all game. Keep in mind that I did make something resembling an argument for DG- that everything that applied to you- floatiness and lack of content- applied to DG as well, probably better. They just had, in my opinion, a slightly better response to the pressure. I wasn't just blindly sheeping someone else's argument, I just was running out of steam and didn't want to do a detailed breakdown at the time. Perhaps I could have run up Dovah, but on a whole I'm thinking that their content is slightly less lacking than DG (or Absum)'s. Dovah has definitely been floaty and that warrants suspicion, but I don't feel like they've been the worst at it overall and thus I wasn't as inclined to vote for them. Pretty simple, in my opinion?
I'm not sure what to say about the L-1 thing. I explicitly said that anyone who was going to hammer should be lynched to disencentivize any "accidental hammers" and up to few a seconds before deadline absolutely nobody hammered Absum, so? Like, with the town reveal obviously I would have taken the Absum vote back and still voted for DG. But my suspicion of Absum for being a floaty player didn't just go away, especially since as I noted I liked DG's response and defense better than I liked Absum's.
The only other argument against me is the vet argument , which I've already responded to but only DG had cared and his response was "Going to suspect that a vet was culted anyway lol". Also, in my opinion, DG's response and pressure toward veterans imply to me that my sweet-spot argument was dead-on and cultists are among {1K, Dovah, Happerry} or thereabouts.
READS-
DG: Very floaty and hasn't necessarily contributed that much until they were under pressure. Could definitely be cult. (yaaaaay)
1K: That Nani wagon was suspicious as hell and I have no idea what to make of it, as was the end of day setting up a chainlynch ("Tomorrow we should lynch BB I'm not going to explain why but you know wink wink nudge nudge") I think that if not DG, 1K would be a good choice for a wagon. When I'm less depressed I can try and dig through all of 1K's posts and try to find the stuff I find suspicious, because her content is niggling at me, but I honestly can't get the emotional energy for that right now; my reads have been off like hell this game and I feel like shit about that. (Hey, remember that time she ferociously defended DG over town/scum colors? Or how the tossing things around she did at the end of the day could easily have been a tool to make sure the DG wagon was derailed? Peppridge Farm remembers.)
Nani: Definitely worth keeping an eye on and having results checked for consistency, but watcher, not cult leader.
Nictis: Always read as town, and that's no different this game.
Happery: Definitely also on the cult shortlist; they tend to not necessarily rock the boat aside from that QTesseract vote at the end of the day, which does read like it could be genuine conviction, and overall they are producing a bit more content than I remembered them producing; the issue of going by memory on this! Overall I'd mark them as less likely cult than 1K or DG... maybe Dovah, but I want to take a closer look at Dovah's content first.
QT: Tracker, not cult leader, could be recruited though. Given that they have results I'm not sure how likely it was they were recuited on N1 though, and wouldn't have been my culting choice. Anybody else want to estimate their own probabilities on that?
Dovah: I honestly can't get motivated to dig through all their posts right now; I honestly don't remember a lot of their content which isn't necessarily a good sign; anybody with more motivation to make epic-length cases want to take a look at Dovah and give me some help in working through my problems with them?
BB: Not playing at her best, but town.
Terra: No real read, subject to change.
Oshha: Has honestly been playing pretty pro-town for a newbie? Been active, pushing players, asking questions, when I asked them to get their vote off a useless avenue they quickly obliged, and just in general I'm not seeing much that is genuinely suspect about them.
So, you know, this is probably lynch-or-lose in terms of cult, which is
great. Nobody vote please. I wish that could give me a slight shot in the arm but it... kinda isn't? I wish this lethargy had hit on another game, to be honest. Anyway, at the moment I want to lynch from a {1K, DG, Happerry, Dovah} pool- now that DG has flipped scum this is slightly more tentative- and I will try and make strictly speaking arguments for this by tomorrow night, even if I'm deeply demotivated to go through all of their content right now, especially with people suspecting me more or less because I'm a veteran and providing no other reason. I'll try and push through that. I'm glad Terra is in the game now, hopefully he can give some fresh insight and give me stuff to bounce off of.
AND HOLD THE PHONE BECAUSE NOTHING FEELS BETTER THAN BEING AT LEAST PARTIALLY RIGHT AND SCUM BEING DEAD.
Let me dig into DG associations later. We've got a bit of forward momentum, let's make use of it!