Shadows on the Silverbird (Mafia)

Estro said:

With respect, I think jailing the other mutineer is the best choice. While the doctor is nice, given the numbers at this stage in the game, keeping every member of town alive is important. I don't think we're at uh, the one where if we don't lynch perfectly from now on we've lost, but I do think we're extremely close. So, allow me to compare the options.

Jailing the other mutineer should mean that there is only one night kill tonight, unless Purple can pull off another double.

Jailing Crystal means that both of them are free to kill, and since from this conversation they know crystal will be jailed they won't even waste a kill in trying to target them. While there might be scum cross kill, it's statically unlikely. The mutineer might also just choose not to kill, which would be a giant mess to work out in the morning of "is nictis secretly necromancer" and other doubts

I'm pretty hopeful you can see which I'd prefer. I'm not gonna call for you to be lynched if you do it - town needs you alive too much - but I really hope you don't.

If my analysis misses anything, do say

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There's two things here. The first is that by credibly raising the possibility I jail Crystalwatcher, we may see Crystalwatcher survive the night because they refuse to risk me blocking their kill, and conversely if they disbelieve I will do it and I actually follow through, we block a kill anyways.

The second, deeper issue is QTesseract. Firstly, it's possible Pawn has actually outright lied, to get us to doubt our more veteran members and lynch them. Secondly, even if he hasn't, it's possible Nictis has mis-identified which veteran it is- for example, atk50 is also a veteran, and also not verified. Thirdly, and this is important in conjunction with two, if QTesseract is town and I am known to be committed to jailing him, the last mutineer can simply elect to not kill, and make it look like QTesseract is scum, causing us to myslynch. If the disposition of my jailing is unknown, it is less possible to count on such ploys.

As to whether we are at Lylo, well. That's complicated.

We sit at ten players. I find, at this juncture, two scum setups likely and one plausible.

Likely: 3 Mutineers 1 Necromancer. In this case, we are presently at 3 scum/6 town/me the survivor, and about to lynch another scum unless something really wacky is up with Cookie Side. That means tomorrow we come out at worst with 7 alive, 4 town 2 scum and me. At that point we pretty much have to eliminate a kill to win, but still.

Likely: 2 Mutineers 2 Necromancers. In this case, we're going into the night with 9 alive, and one kill wiped out. Thus, tomorrow we will have at least eight alive and 2 scum to catch, and be able to afford a myslynch even with no kill blocking.

Unlikely but plausible: 3 mutineers 2 Necromancers. This basically requires I assume Cookie Side is lying about having a bonus kill and being the last left. This is the worst plausible scenario, forcing us to find 3 more scum while losing up to two a night still. Even in this case, due to the un-unified nature of scum, we can still win, but myslynching will be... problematic if we also fail to block kills.

I refuse to disclose which jail target I'm favoring right now, on the principle that regardless of which it is we get better results if scum believe I'm credibly going to take the other possibility.

Cookie Side said:

Honestly either Pawn is lying, or i am. I don't get why you put more trust in him than me, but you are wrong in doing so.

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Pawn was trying to get me to cover for you and your partner in the Daily Scumhunting. You're probably trying to make it so your partner can slip by until the end.

I don't really have any reason to believe that you are telling the truth about not having a second partner when your other partner already said that you did.

Cookie Side said:

I don't think i am going to play Mafia games again for a while. Of 4 games played, 2 i was Town that died 1st Night, and 2 i am scum Big Bad that lasts 4-5 Days. Not a good record so i am gonna not play Mafia for a while.

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I mean, making it that far as scum is actually pretty good.

Nictis said:

Pawn was trying to get me to cover for you and your partner in the Daily Scumhunting. You're probably trying to make it so your partner can slip by until the end.

I don't really have any reason to believe that you are telling the truth about not having a second partner when your other partner already said that you did.

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I mean the case for that is it would be a very canny move for Pawn to claim there was more to his team than existed to get us jumping at shadows and then Cookie Side in his inexperience is not backing the claim as fact. I think the possibility of a third mutineer is credible enough, but I'm actually leaning most towards a 2/2 distribution given Cookie has claimed to have a oneshot bonus kill and we had the double kill from Necro Scum earlier.

Still, it doesn't much matter until tomorrow which it is.

Between the two... Well, Pawn claimed that it was three people turning Town. Not exactly something that would make me want to lynch you all if it worked. You are claiming to be pure Scum, which if it works makes me want to lynch you and any other partners you have. I don't believe Pawn would name his teammate but leave the non-existant "Third Member" unnamed if he wanted me to try and lynch a veteran.

Nictis said:

Between the two... Well, Pawn claimed that it was three people turning Town. Not exactly something that would make me want to lynch you all if it worked. You are claiming to be pure Scum, which if it works makes me want to lynch you and any other partners you have. I don't believe Pawn would name his teammate but leave the non-existant "Third Member" unnamed if he wanted me to try and lynch a veteran.

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May I just say that while I fully expect it won't happen we are gonna have so much egg on our collective faces if Cookie Side turns out to be a jester?

Like, I always doubt starting jesters, but that just keeps coming to mind as a possible clever move if Pawn somehow knew of his status as one and Cookie is now playing along to get lynched. I don't consider it entirely plausible, but it's an angle that just would seem like a brilliant twist.

Too unlikely for me to let override evidence of scum-ness though.

Terrabrand said:

May I just say that while I fully expect it won't happen we are gonna have so much egg on our collective faces if Cookie Side turns out to be a jester?

Like, I always doubt starting jesters, but that just keeps coming to mind as a possible clever move if Pawn somehow knew of his status as one and Cookie is now playing along to get lynched. I don't consider it entirely plausible, but it's an angle that just would seem like a brilliant twist.

Too unlikely for me to let override evidence of scum-ness though.

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This seems super contrived. Jester is the easiest role to fulfil; the idea that even a newbie jester needs help in a closed setup is kinda bizarre. I could definitely lose as a jester if I tried, but I'm having difficulties thinking of one where I just couldn't trivially win it with even a modicum of ability. Like, we've had games thta are more unbalanced than games with jesters, but...

So things seem to have completely crawled to a halt. I'm gonna give it like an hour or two for objections and just hammer Cookie Side if there are none in that time so we can get the game moving. We don't seem to have more to talk about right now.

Terrabrand said:

So things seem to have completely crawled to a halt. I'm gonna give it like an hour or two for objections and just hammer Cookie Side if there are none in that time so we can get the game moving. We don't seem to have more to talk about right now.

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Certainly seems that way.

Terrabrand said:

So things seem to have completely crawled to a halt. I'm gonna give it like an hour or two for objections and just hammer Cookie Side if there are none in that time so we can get the game moving. We don't seem to have more to talk about right now.

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Yeah, no objections here.

Yeah let's just get this over with.

[x] Lynch Cookie Side

Should be hammer @Cyricubed.

I was going to be traveling to vacation in spots with low to no signal anyway so this is a good time to end this.

My room was room encasef by ice last night.

Well, doctor? Unless you saved someone last night, QT is provably our last member of the mutiny.

Atk50 was my heal target last night.

Nothing happened to them.

No green kill, but no QT? If Nictis is to be believed (And as cookie side's death proved, he is), then QT is the last member of the mutineers.

I'll be the first to cast my vote.

[X]Lynch QTesseract

Besides, QT claimed vanilla, yes? We aren't losing a valuable power role by lynching them, yes?

[X] Lynch QTesseract

They claimed Deckhand, which as discussed previously was kinda suss. But it is a vanilla role, yes

Of course, the greater problem is that we are getting rather few on people, and have yet to find a single member of purple. Depending how many people that has, we could be in some degree of trouble. I think the idea is a duo of them, which does mean we have currently 4:1:1:2 (sorry to separate you, TB, but you aren't town).