Don't lose your nerve, people.
It doesn't matter how many alliances they have; they're quid-pro-quo, right? In a defensive battle, unless it becomes a siege, they're not going to be able to call upon those forces to do, well, anything. Remember that we faced down every single shit roll that it was possible to have last turn, and our superior morale and organization still carried the day. Remember that they had all these forces when we raided them with
2 hunters two turns ago, and it didn't matter then because as long as we weren't settling down to siege, speed and shock made a smash & grab possible.
Our goal this time is to burn their fields, destroy their outlying villages, kill their farmers, and basically finish what we started with the raid on the Sea Village. We can 100% accomplish that this turn. Letting them rebuild is actually
worse because then they have things with which to buy mercenaries and pops to commit to an attack.
For now let's power up and get more info on the surroundings if we can spread our religion as well as make alliances in the low lands then we can start a war but for now I'd suggest restraint and next turn expanding to lakefront although we will have a better name for that
Will that cautious approach work? Azel's told us they have alliances and mercenaries. If we attack, we'll be facing their forces alone in the fields and farms of Brushcrest. If we wait, they'll mobilize their alliances and we'll be faced with an assault of their allies + their pops, as we probably did on the Battle at Lakefort. Also, we don't have anything which which to buy-in to the alliances in the low lands. Roughly speaking, there's the river raiders on one side, and Brushcrest plus its allies on the other. Who do you propose we ally with? How is that even logically possible? Expanding to Lakefront will make things even worse because now when Brushcrest sends a 4 pop (theirs) + 3 pop (allies) army, we'll be overstretched and unable to get reinforcements there in time. Palisades will not deter a determined force.
I keep circling back to this, but they had all these allies and forces when we looted the Sea Village with 2 pops. Alliances, because of Neolithic limitations re: communication, are more useful on the offensive than on the defensive. If we can rout their 4 pop army, and we will, given that we're marching with a 5-6 more advanced army, then we can basically destroy everything around the palisade. They won't be able to support their population on the meager food they have left, and even their allies can't ship food (since no pottery).
Letting them recover means that they will begin to employ our methods of strategic organization, which is one of the biggest edges that we have against them. Before that, we need to at least severely weaken them and we
can accomplish that this turn.