Your argument is that the technocracy must, for some reason, have never lost a battle for the world scientific consensus. There's absolutely no problem with the technocracy being annoyed with the idea of chaos theory and disbelieving it within themselves. It just means the newer technocrats get taught a series of theoretical work arounds where sufficient computation/reason/whatever makes chaos predictable again, but those are vulgar in the consensus. In the same way that the technocracy has plasma weapons but they're vulgar in the consensus.
Yes, the Technocracy have never lost a battle for the world scientific consensus, just like the Hermetics have never lost a battle for the world Hermetic magic consensus, and the Verbena have never lost a battle for the witchery consensus, and the Euthanatos have never lost a battle for karmic death-mage consensus. Because the 'world scientific consensus' is the
Technocratic core paradigm. I don't see how this is unreasonable, given that other people's paradigms don't have huge alien intrusions sticking out of them like chestbursters as features. If they shift, it's because the new form of their paradigm is tolerable to them. The Technocracy doesn't have to 'lose' in the way you insist for the Etherites to 'win,' i.e. a bunch of their things become vulgar because they reject quantum mechanics and hates it haaates the ones who took their precious, by having quantum mechanics be a thing.
And 'theoretical work arounds' means that they
accept chaos theory. So yes, there's a problem when your argument is "the Technocracy can disbelieve chaos theory because they believe chaos theory." The Technocracy can't do what the Hermetics do and say 'this thing which is in consensus isn't actually a problem for our paradigm because we have the purple paradigm-it's all the smelly Sleepers' fault.' So if they lose a battle for the 'scientific consensus' you're saying something isn't just in consensus, it's
in the Technocratic paradigm. They believe it. By definition. If the Technocracy
didn't accept chaos theory, it would be going "chaos theory is actually
false, the two-pendulum system is perfectly predictable with a linear equation." Simply because they claim in-paradigm they have tools to mitigate it doesn't make it not-in-paradigm any more than the Technocracy having faster-than-light travel means they don't believe in relativity.
To me at least, this is mostly coming off as you not wanting the technocracy to have lost a fight around something that you care about. Alternative medicine is crank science we all dislike. However if they've lost on chaos theory, you'll have to be less sympathetic to them because they're less into modernity. Even if it actually fits your preferred fluff, where they're just another tradition, better.
Yes, the Technocracy are just another Tradition. This is why they
actually believe their paradigm, which is modern science + super-science. Their paradigm being completely grounded on modern science and the Technocracy recruiting from modern scientists is pointed out in its book, and basically every single other book. You may have noticed this
modern science part of that. Your fluff doesn't fit the Technocracy-as-another-Tradition
at all. It's the 1E Technocracy which doesn't believe its paradigm and doesn't give a shit because they're a bunch of non-consistent villains. Which is why 2E's Guide to the Technocracy, Sons of Ether Revised, and Guide to the Traditions didn't repeat this. Your statement is that chaos theory struck to the
core of Technocratic thought-not exactly something the Technocracy is going to be coming back from, because it's stuck with its paradigm even more than any Tradition, which is a huge strength and a huge weakness.
There are plenty of examples of people who were of a faction and then had a hostile element render a core tenet of their actual paradigm 'wrong' like you demand the Technocracy has. Literally 100% of them either no longer exist or defected to another side which accepted their actual paradigm (Craftmasons, Cabal of Pure Thought, Solificati, Sons of Ether...). If the Etherites had actually disproven a core component of the Technocracy's paradigm, the Technocracy would be one of them.
We can try to convince one another that it makes the best game fluff of course. That's the most important thing, and actually, the most supported thing in white wolf's cannon. I believe it's flat out rule zero.
If we're throwing out all canon and going with rule zero, there's an better solution to the game you want to run than the contortions you put the Technocracy through. It's called "replace the Technocracy with the Seers of the Throne." The Seers slot
right into the same position as the Technocracy, but do not actually have to believe the paradigm they espouse, which makes them much more useful for the idea that the Etherites are striking blows against the Seers by convincing the Sleepers that quantum mechanics exists and thus determinism is wrong. Because the Seers
can dust themselves off from 'all their shit was rendered vulgar.' "Eh, let's find a new way to oppress the masses" would become a valid option because they
can walk away, because they
can believe in Consensus and the purple paradigm as a whole.
The Technocracy is only interesting
because it's so closely intertwined with modernity, science, and technology. As you divorce the Technocracy from the complex fuzziness of modern science and technology the probability of the Seers being a better fit for your game than the Union approaches 1.