MiracleGrow
Miracles for only $19.99 [They/Them]
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This is true and wise.
General Exalted Thread
- Thread starter Aleph
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I am intrigued and would like to know more, if I may.
If it's anything like genre fiction:
Everyone smokes
Everyone drinks
Everyone wears hats
HalfTangible
Only half sane (it's less cringe)
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I was in the shower pondering how botches work in Exalted and decided to use my barely-remembered statistics course to try and find a pattern in how likely botches become as dice number increases.
At one point during that shower I thought to myself, 'wait, is a botch MORE likely with two dice than 1? it can't be'. And now here I am working through math concepts I've only barely touched in 5 years trying to remember notations I couldn't type out anyway.
Now, to roll a botch you need to roll 0 successes and at least one of your dice must be a 1. With one die, the only way this can happen is if you roll a 1, which means you have a 1 in 10 chance of rolling a botch on one die. The probability of rolling a 1 on a d10 is 1 in 10.
But if you're rolling more than 1 die, you only need to get a 1 once. So the rest of your dice just need to avoid rolling a success. We know that you generally get half as many successes as dice, so you might think there's a 50% chance on each die, but that's only because 10 double successes, and we don't care if the success is doubled. We need to know the chance of not getting any successes, which in this case means rolling <6. The probability of rolling 6 or lower on a d10 is 6 in 10. Shocking, I know, but we need to establish this.
Assuming A and B are independent events
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
P(A) = 1 in 10 chance of rolling a 1
P(B) = 6 in 10 chance of rolling <6
If we have 2 dice, then we just need to multiply these two independent events to get the chance of a botch. So:
= 6 in 100 chance on two dice.
= 3 in 50
about 1/16.666667
Ha! Take that, shower thoughts! You're full of shit! In retrospect this should've been something almost immediately obvious.
So! Formula:
Where N = the number of dice you're rolling
P(Botch) = 1/10 * (6/10 * (N-1))
Or put another way: Multiply 6/10 by the number of dice you have - 1, then divide that by 10, and that's your chance of rolling a botch for any number other than 1.
(For the record, if you wanted to determine the probability of ANY of your dice rolling a 1, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B))
Now, to roll a botch you need to roll 0 successes and at least one of your dice must be a 1. With one die, the only way this can happen is if you roll a 1, which means you have a 1 in 10 chance of rolling a botch on one die. The probability of rolling a 1 on a d10 is 1 in 10.
But if you're rolling more than 1 die, you only need to get a 1 once. So the rest of your dice just need to avoid rolling a success. We know that you generally get half as many successes as dice, so you might think there's a 50% chance on each die, but that's only because 10 double successes, and we don't care if the success is doubled. We need to know the chance of not getting any successes, which in this case means rolling <6. The probability of rolling 6 or lower on a d10 is 6 in 10. Shocking, I know, but we need to establish this.
Assuming A and B are independent events
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
P(A) = 1 in 10 chance of rolling a 1
P(B) = 6 in 10 chance of rolling <6
If we have 2 dice, then we just need to multiply these two independent events to get the chance of a botch. So:
= 6 in 100 chance on two dice.
= 3 in 50
about 1/16.666667
Ha! Take that, shower thoughts! You're full of shit! In retrospect this should've been something almost immediately obvious.
So! Formula:
Where N = the number of dice you're rolling
P(Botch) = 1/10 * (6/10 * (N-1))
Or put another way: Multiply 6/10 by the number of dice you have - 1, then divide that by 10, and that's your chance of rolling a botch for any number other than 1.
(For the record, if you wanted to determine the probability of ANY of your dice rolling a 1, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B))
HamSandLich
MEAT WIZARD
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Ah but what type of hats
I think you forgot the chance of rolling a 1 on the second dice instead. Out of 100 possible 2-dice rolls, there's 11 options that result in a botch: 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4, 1-5, 1-6, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, 6-1. So 11/100, slightly higher than 10%
3 dice is a lot more complicated; might be easier to calculate cases of 2-6 instead. So there's 3 * 1 * 5 * 5 = 0.075 cases where one 1 and two 2-6s are rolled, 3 * 1 * 1 * 5 = 0.015 cases where two 1s and 1 2-6s are rolled and 1/1000 case of triple 1s for a total of 0.091. Wait, I know this pattern argh...
Right! It's the chance of rolling all failures (0.6^n) minus the chance of none of those failures being 1s (0.5^n)! The final formula is (0.6)^n-(0.5)^n which, hmm, I think it's a function that peaks at 2 (slightly less, actually). So 2 dice botches more than 1 but any more than that botches less.
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HalfTangible
Only half sane (it's less cringe)
- Location
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My thought process was that if you roll a 1 on the second die, you don't need a 1 on the first die, and the 6/10 failure probability includes the 1/10 chance you roll a 1. Which means that the probability for the first die roll becomes 6/10, and the probability for the second becomes 1/10. Which means you have the same probability as if the first die roll needed to be a 1.
When you brute force it like you just did my math comes out wrong and I acknowledge that. Not entirely sure what I missed.
You have two different 6/100 probabilities here! The 6/100 chance that the first dice is 1 and the second is an failure, and the 6/100 probability that the second dice is 1 and the first dice is any failure. They only overlap on one value, that's 1-1, which is why you have to subtract the intersection and get 11/100 in the end.
MiracleGrow
Miracles for only $19.99 [They/Them]
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Looking through my notes... I admit a lot of it makes zero sense. But I did it anyways. All to build a shard that's fun to play in first and foremost. Key thing is that the world is already using early 1800's technology.
The realm civil war was a disaster before it even started. A certain philosophy was exploding across lower ranks of dragonblood and dynasts. To put it simply as possible. It was over the idea that the house system in the realm did nothing but make people completely miserable. That when the dragon blooded were created. They were at their greatest when family was a place one could be happy, rather than the toxic shithole that was dynastic families. Its way more complicated than this, but I don't want to get into it to much.
So who took the Scarlet Throne? No one did, someone fucking blew it up. Along with the entire Imperial Palace, destroying the sword of creation as well. Whatever legitimacy there was to be held in the Imperial City died in a single night. The day the civil war kicked off was meet with mass desertion in the ranks in many of the houses. Oh and one thing I forgot, some pyscho released a couple of unbound Third Circles into the realm when the civil war kicked off.
Two hundred years later the Imperial City is now the Free City of the Realm. A city state that answer only to itself. To the south of it and for a decent portion of of the south east of the Realm. Is the dragonblood federation (name pending lol). It was a nation built to discard the legacy of the realm entierly and that every DB has a vote (Not mortals lol). It's a super messy nation with a decent amount of problems. But its very united when it comes to external threats. They have a shitload of industry and are uhh still figuring out the workers right stuff.
V'neef (And a mixture of other houses) controls about 2/3 of the Blessed Isle. While they very much wish to take the entire Blessed Isle for themselves. It would be a disaster going to war with the federation. They are considered to be the largest super power but have the habit of slamming into brick walls and doing it a couple more times for good measure. They have a working relationship with the Federation cause V'neef needs every damn shipyard she can get her hands on.
Beyond that? Baisc concept of this shard would be heavily focused on the western direction. Most of the western Isles are firmly under the control of various 'Anathema' kingdoms. The Caul is firmly under Silver Pact control, but Lion vanished at the decesive battle. These isles have a messy Alliance between themsleves to fight against the remenants of the realm. They are currently locked into a large war at Sea over various island between the west and the Blessed Isle. This is where I would set my campaigns. So I have the excuse to run this crazy sized WW2 sea battles in the backgrounds of fights. I was fiddling with as light system to run these, but I gave up lol.
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If the Defining Soul cannot define directly as well as symbolically, it's useless to me.
HamSandLich
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You do realize that you're just asking for the defining soul to be a 1 to 1 copy of the higher soul right?
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She really isn't. Nobody would mistake Mara for a 1-to-1 copy of Erembour, even if they're both doing the toxic relationship schtick.
And speaking personally, I see no reason to be dogmatic about the nature of the 2CD-3CD relationship. What does anyone gain by nailing it down to a formula?
Seems better for everyone if the relationship can be direct, symbolic, or even occasionally outright obscure. Gives writers more freedom, players more surprises, and readers less of a sense that the setting has been "solved".
And speaking personally, I see no reason to be dogmatic about the nature of the 2CD-3CD relationship. What does anyone gain by nailing it down to a formula?
Seems better for everyone if the relationship can be direct, symbolic, or even occasionally outright obscure. Gives writers more freedom, players more surprises, and readers less of a sense that the setting has been "solved".
Still obsessing over Exalted. Thinking of hypothetical exalt types and charms. Exalted using Charm trees instead of linear sets of power (like Vampire Disciplines) is probably a result of basing Exalt's awesome powers on Abilities. Also turning into living shadows is is a broadly applicable power.
I think the linear sets for Vampire was more of an attempt to make sure Vampires follow strict thematic lines of development ; correct me if I'm wrong, but the only other splat in CoD that does that is Mage (except much broarder) and basically every other CoD splat does really flat Charm trees.
HalfTangible
Only half sane (it's less cringe)
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Or attributes. Depends on the Exalt type.
Checking the NWoD/CoD 1e books I have it is a little more complicated than that. Changeling Contracts are bought in order except for Goblin Contracts. Werewolf Gifts do not have to be bought in order but are presented in sets of five with an increased price if you skip earlier powers. Promethean Transmutations are purchased independently from eachother. And Sin Eaters have a weird system based on combining Keys with different Manifestations which provides geometric option growth. Which apparently was reworked in the second edition.
Basically I think for non standard Exalts I would have an easier time coming up with charms organized as disciplines rather than charms organized as trees. Makes focusing on different thematic elements simpler in my mind. However trees are also cool, and fun to look at.
Edit: Perhaps a smarter way to design would be to start with a main linear progression then have other functions branch off from that core progression.
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I did in fact forget Sin Eaters. Changeling moved to individual purchases with 2e, too, so I didn't know they (and werewolves) were more limited in 1e. Maybe its about the mainline Exalted wanting the flexibility to pick and choose whatever Charms fit their image, while in CoD they wanted most splats to have thematic progression in power?
Abyssal crowdfunding confirmed for the 16th
Given how well they managed to rehabilitate Lunars after several bad editions, I'm pretty excited about Abyssals.
mothematics
How wide is the concept of "you"?
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Y'all aren't ready.
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With a new campaign on the way, it seems like a good time to ask: what can be done to revitalize the game?
Writing-wise, the game has actually improved since 2e. But somehow it's folded into itself. It used to be all over the RPG-related internet, now I never hear about it outside of its own dedicated spaces*. And even within those spaces there's less homebrew, less discussion of actual play, fewer signs of life in general. I recognize almost everyone I see, sad to say. Even when I check out places I don't actually post.
The ingredients for a revival are there, I think. D&D has been doing great, so there are a lot of people roleplaying around a tabletop. Sales appear to be fine. And as I said, the actual books are better than they were. So I'm sure there's some way.
I hear a lot of people get into games through Actual Plays, these days. Maybe we'll see an influx if and when some podcast showing off the game hits it big? But that feels like waiting for lightning to strike.
Any ideas?
*I recently went looking for Exalted-related discussion on Reddit, and the first search result was a thread asking why the game died. There actually is an Exalted sub, but that thread was still a sad thing to read. RPGnet, which was once a very Exalted place, isn't anymore. The Something Awful thread is largely inactive. Etc, etc.
Writing-wise, the game has actually improved since 2e. But somehow it's folded into itself. It used to be all over the RPG-related internet, now I never hear about it outside of its own dedicated spaces*. And even within those spaces there's less homebrew, less discussion of actual play, fewer signs of life in general. I recognize almost everyone I see, sad to say. Even when I check out places I don't actually post.
The ingredients for a revival are there, I think. D&D has been doing great, so there are a lot of people roleplaying around a tabletop. Sales appear to be fine. And as I said, the actual books are better than they were. So I'm sure there's some way.
I hear a lot of people get into games through Actual Plays, these days. Maybe we'll see an influx if and when some podcast showing off the game hits it big? But that feels like waiting for lightning to strike.
Any ideas?
*I recently went looking for Exalted-related discussion on Reddit, and the first search result was a thread asking why the game died. There actually is an Exalted sub, but that thread was still a sad thing to read. RPGnet, which was once a very Exalted place, isn't anymore. The Something Awful thread is largely inactive. Etc, etc.
HalfTangible
Only half sane (it's less cringe)
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- Valkyrie, Primus
*shrug* Exalted's been kinda like that everywhere I've hung out ever since I discovered the thing.
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Honestly, I'd say the best chance would have been using Exalted Essence to pivot to a full 4th edition (instead of making Ex3 lite with some fixes) and then make an anime about like... A Solar in the scavenger lands (to get that good magical post-apocalyse energy and show what differentiates Exalted from other settings).
Cause what Exalted really needs is a marketing push and a competent core book. A big problem, imo, with Ex3 is that the core rules are good (could be better, but good) but it's core splat is... Not. And so Everytime people recommend that someone get into the line it's "buy the core book and lunars" which is a pretty significant barrier. Not just because books are expensive, but because it's hard to get excited for a game when the person recommending it says "the base game sucks but this supplement makes it fun".
I would also say, as much as it makes me sad, trying to recapture old fans is probably not the right move at this point. Ex3 made the decision (whether you agree with it or not) to eject a lot of the late 2e stuff *and* a lot of 2e fans. People like myself, who liked the idea of "scientific magic" were actively rejected and I don't think you're going to win them back on the grounds of assign that stuff back in without similarly alienating Ex3's playerbase.
Cause what Exalted really needs is a marketing push and a competent core book. A big problem, imo, with Ex3 is that the core rules are good (could be better, but good) but it's core splat is... Not. And so Everytime people recommend that someone get into the line it's "buy the core book and lunars" which is a pretty significant barrier. Not just because books are expensive, but because it's hard to get excited for a game when the person recommending it says "the base game sucks but this supplement makes it fun".
I would also say, as much as it makes me sad, trying to recapture old fans is probably not the right move at this point. Ex3 made the decision (whether you agree with it or not) to eject a lot of the late 2e stuff *and* a lot of 2e fans. People like myself, who liked the idea of "scientific magic" were actively rejected and I don't think you're going to win them back on the grounds of assign that stuff back in without similarly alienating Ex3's playerbase.
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You might as well ask how to turn back time to when Discord wasn't the primary discussion point for anything and everything, TTRPGs in particular. Because that's the phenomenon you're observing.
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That's definitely a big part of the inward turn. But of all the many hobbies and interests I follow, Exalted is the worst-hit by a fair margin.
Ex3 is literally not even half finished. We can't just ditch it.
I could see re-releasing the core book, though. D&D had a 3.5; maybe we could too?
And there might actually be some desire to do that. The core was, after all, the product of a different team.
I think you're too pessimistic there, actually. The whole active-rejection thing was mostly a product of the previous devs being pricks. A writer who actually wants to do so can totally provide a game that supports multiple perspectives and approaches.
I've got a 75%-finished thaumaturgy rewrite that tries to do that, actually. This conversation is as good a reason as any to actually finish the damn thing. When I do, you can tell me whether it provides the scientific magic you want.
Ex3 is literally not even half finished. We can't just ditch it.
I could see re-releasing the core book, though. D&D had a 3.5; maybe we could too?
And there might actually be some desire to do that. The core was, after all, the product of a different team.
I think you're too pessimistic there, actually. The whole active-rejection thing was mostly a product of the previous devs being pricks. A writer who actually wants to do so can totally provide a game that supports multiple perspectives and approaches.
I've got a 75%-finished thaumaturgy rewrite that tries to do that, actually. This conversation is as good a reason as any to actually finish the damn thing. When I do, you can tell me whether it provides the scientific magic you want.