Remove ads

Uchiha Quest: Silver Edition [Naruto Reincarnation Quest]

Reader mode
[X] You have an actual trainer for bukijutsu now, surely your mother won't mind if you practice some more in your free time. Train 'Bukijutsu' and 'Perception.'
[X] Your training with your father is going quite well, why stop now? Train with Uchiha Ryota. Train 'Taijutsu' and Uchiha Interceptor Fist' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] Not only is it useful, it is also extremely enjoyable. Moments like these will become rarer with age. Make the most of the ones you have, especially if they simultaneously help you improve your skills. Train with Nakamura Shiori. Train 'Chakra' and 'Mind's Eye of Kagura' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] Your physical abilities are exceptional, and that's precisely why you should push them further. It's always smart to play to your strengths. Train 'Strength,' and 'Speed.'

[X] Spend more time helping your mother around the house. The normality seems to soothe her, much like her chakra soothes you.
[X] Your father is officially the only Uchiha you like. Spending time with you should be a proper reward for his accomplishment.

Let us train our basics first before going for Elemental , besides we are Water , Fire will be hard to train anyways. And we are still young so theres no need to rush it.

And lets spend more time with our parents.
 
Dark as Silver said:
Dunno about logarithms but I can demonstrate the algebra.

In order to roll an X crit you must first roll an X-1 sized crit.
This means that we can say that the outcomes are dependent as DrTortoise said.
You calculate the probability of dependent events by multiplying the probability of the events as if they where unrelated, so for example, two heads on a coin is .5*.5=.25.
When we had a +40 training modifier we passed that on any roll from 60-100 so we had a 41% chance of criting, which is the independent chances of a roll.
In order to have a 11X crit we need to roll a +100 11 times in a row. So the probability of that multicrit was (41/100)^11 which give us 0.006%.
Technically this is calculating the chance of getting an 11 crit or higher. If we want to know the odds of 11 specifically we would then multiply by the chance that we don't get another crit roll after this.
This totally ignores crit overflows, because no matter what DrTortoise said, there is not an easy way to calculate the probability of dependent events when the probability of the events is dependent on prior rolls.

However when thats the problem, you write a computer script to simulate it, brb.
Code: 
#Simulates rolls for Uchiha Quest: Silver Edition
import random

bonus=40
sampleSize=500000

def overflow(excess):
    roll=random.randint(0, 100)+bonus+excess #roll d100
    if roll>100:#if roll is greater than 100, calculate excess and roll crit die
        excess=roll-100
        crits=overflow(excess)
        return roll+crits
    else: return roll

targetDC=1100
hits=0
for i in range(sampleSize):
    if overflow(0)>targetDC:
        hits+=1
print(hits/sampleSize*100)
My python is kinda shit but heres what I've got. I assume that when DrTortoise talks about logarithms he's done something similar to this at a lot of data points and calculated a best fitting line.
This calculator gave me a probability of 5.643% so that's orders of magnitude bigger than the chance without overflow.
Postscript: While testing this script I hit the maximum recursion depth consistently within the first 10 to 40 rolls of a +50 bonus. I don't know how DrTortoise intends to handle this but in the future I think that bonuses we are given should probably only be valid to a certain depth. +50 in particular is kind of an important milestone because at this point the mean roll on a d100+the bonus is itself a crit can be reliably self sustaining without overflow, thus allowing overflow to build to ridiculous amounts. Yeah I can see crits in the range of 4850


[X] Your training with your father is going quite well, why stop now? Train with Uchiha Ryota. Train 'Taijutsu' and Uchiha Interceptor Fist' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] Not only is it useful, it is also extremely enjoyable. Moments like these will become rarer with age. Make the most of the ones you have, especially if they simultaneously help you improve your skills. Train with Nakamura Shiori. Train 'Chakra' and 'Mind's Eye of Kagura' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] You had a lot of fun in the Forest of Death with your mother, see if she wants to go again? Train with Nakamura Shiori. Train 'Perception' and 'Tracking' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] From what you understand the Uchiha have a 'rite of passage' involving Katon ninjutsu. This technique is available to anyone in the clan, regardless of age. What better time to learn it than now? Train 'Ninjutsu,' 'Katon,' and 'Chakra Control.' 5% chance to unlock skill 'Katon: Gōkakyū no Jutsu (Fire Release: Grand Fireball Technique)'

[X] Your father is officially the only Uchiha you like. Spending time with you should be a proper reward for his accomplishment.
[X] You didn't have such a great time the last time you tried to interact with children your own age. Maybe take it a bit more slowly this time? There's supposed to be another genius child around your age, you should see about getting to know him.

Sure because I'm sure Kakashi will be less insufferable than he was while young in canon. :V
Seriously though after the last fail how could I turn down another.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Oh, programming. I was thinking he did something more mathmatically precise (and calculating all possible outcomes (even at a function depth like 10) becomes quickly infeasible so can't get a precise thing for that), but that sort of method probably does get a close enough probability.
That said, edited the script some to find out the average gains per roll, and back when we had the +40 we would end up averaging 310 per roll, but now that we are down to +10, we only average 68.
 
Trondason said:
Oh, programming. I was thinking he did something more mathmatically precise (and calculating all possible outcomes (even at a function depth like 10) becomes quickly infeasible so can't get a precise thing for that), but that sort of method probably does get a close enough probability.
That said, edited the script some to find out the average gains per roll, and back when we had the +40 we would end up averaging 310 per roll, but now that we are down to +10, we only average 68.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Regression fitting a logarithm to a data set is its own undergrad course however I assume you already know it.
However yeah, the thing is, the average is a terrible way of estimating the expected outcome of our rolls, because when we had +40 we still had a 60% chance to roll a third of the average. And at 50%, half the time it fails to crit, and sometimes it can crit over 1000 times. (Which would have been a hilarious rage quit from DrTortoise.)
Tiny changes at higher values are much more useful than larger changes at lower values.
 
Dark as Silver said:
Regression fitting a logarithm to a data set is its own undergrad course however I assume you already know it.
However yeah, the thing is, the average is a terrible way of estimating the expected outcome of our rolls, because when we had +40 we still had a 60% chance to roll a third of the average. And at 50%, half the time it fails to crit, and sometimes it can crit over 1000 times. (Which would have been a hilarious rage quit from DrTortoise.)
Tiny changes at higher values are much more useful than larger changes at lower values.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I do not know "regression fitting a logarithm", might be a college course I haven't gotten to yet.

Anyways, while your various points are true, I feel that Average i still a fair projection, since we are talking about more than just 1 roll. We are making about a dozen per turn, and while we could achieve a TON of progress on one particular roll, we won't be making nearly as much on all the others (the instances where it doesn't even crit once, for example), so when we want to project possible growth over a long period of time, I'd think the average roll would be more useful. (Plus, it could crit a thousand times with any mod, even 0, what matters is how vanishingly small that possibility is)
 
Trondason said:
I do not know "regression fitting a logarithm", might be a college course I haven't gotten to yet.

Anyways, while your various points are true, I feel that Average i still a fair projection, since we are talking about more than just 1 roll. We are making about a dozen per turn, and while we could achieve a TON of progress on one particular roll, we won't be making nearly as much on all the others (the instances where it doesn't even crit once, for example), so when we want to project possible growth over a long period of time, I'd think the average roll would be more useful. (Plus, it could crit a thousand times with any mod, even 0, what matters is how vanishingly small that possibility is)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
With a +50 bonus? A lot, about 1 in 20? I'm having a hard time estimating given that it keeps stack overflowing.
 
Trondason said:
? Not sure what you are responding to, since I didn't ask any questions, and I can't figure out where I might have made reference to +50.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
It was this bit.
Trondason said:
(Plus, it could crit a thousand times with any mod, even 0, what matters is how vanishingly small that possibility is)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Honestly it kinda bothers me how inconsistent this system is, so I might be over focusing on that and reading stuff where you didn't mean it.
 
Dark as Silver said:
It was this bit.


Honestly it kinda bothers me how inconsistent this system is, so I might be over focusing on that and reading stuff where you didn't mean it.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Ah. I doubt we'll ever get +50, and it'll probably be very hard to get even to +20.

But what I was saying was only what I wrote. The fact that a 1000x crit could have happened with +40 doesn't say a lot, considering it is a possible outcome with +0

Edit: Any idea how to make a density plot? Trying to figure that out.
 
Last edited:
DrTortoise said:
Strength
1d100→100+30+5=135 crit!
1d100→81+35+30+5=151 2x crit!
1d100→37+51+30+5=123 3x crit!
1d100→98+23+30+5=156 4x crit!
1d100→21+56+30+5=111 5x crit!
1d100→99+11+30+5=145 6x crit!
1d100→71+45+30+5=151 7x crit!
1d100→95+51+30+5=180 8x crit!
1d100→18+80+30+5=133 9x crit!
1d100→62+33+30+5=130 10x crit!
1d100→33+30+30+5=98
+1508 Strength WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I admit, I kind of half hope something like this happens over at the SB quest for our Chakra roll. If just so we can be better in a stat than the MC here is, and to see your reaction to us getting C Rank Chakra Capacity.
 
[X] Your training with your father is going quite well, why stop now? Train with Uchiha Ryota. Train 'Taijutsu' and Uchiha Interceptor Fist' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] Not only is it useful, it is also extremely enjoyable. Moments like these will become rarer with age. Make the most of the ones you have, especially if they simultaneously help you improve your skills. Train with Nakamura Shiori. Train 'Chakra' and 'Mind's Eye of Kagura' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] You had a lot of fun in the Forest of Death with your mother, see if she wants to go again? Train with Nakamura Shiori. Train 'Perception' and 'Tracking' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] From what you understand the Uchiha have a 'rite of passage' involving Katon ninjutsu. This technique is available to anyone in the clan, regardless of age. What better time to learn it than now? Train 'Ninjutsu,' 'Katon,' and 'Chakra Control.' 5% chance to unlock skill 'Katon: Gōkakyū no Jutsu (Fire Release: Grand Fireball Technique)'

[X] Spend more time helping your mother around the house. The normality seems to soothe her, much like her chakra soothes you.
[X] Your father is officially the only Uchiha you like. Spending time with you should be a proper reward for his accomplishment.
 
I don't really see the point in comparing the two characters: this one is far older after all. It's very unlikely SB will get a roll like that though, without the +30 we got here.
 
Waffle said:
I don't really see the point in comparing the two characters: this one is far older after all. It's very unlikely SB will get a roll like that though, without the +30 we got here.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
True. Still, it's nice to see how the two grow differently. After all, thanks to traits and d50s we managed to match you guys in Chakra compacity. I want to see how the growth differs, not just due to modifiers and action differences, but due to starting stats.
 
Right, the D50, thanks for the heads up! @DrTortoise please add mine to Speed. There's probably a ton of other voters who dice haven't been allocated yet either
 
[X] Your training with your father is going quite well, why stop now? Train with Uchiha Ryota. Train 'Taijutsu' and Uchiha Interceptor Fist' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] Not only is it useful, it is also extremely enjoyable. Moments like these will become rarer with age. Make the most of the ones you have, especially if they simultaneously help you improve your skills. Train with Nakamura Shiori. Train 'Chakra' and 'Mind's Eye of Kagura' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] You had a lot of fun in the Forest of Death with your mother, see if she wants to go again? Train with Nakamura Shiori. Train 'Perception' and 'Tracking' with an additional +10 to each roll.
[X] From what you understand the Uchiha have a 'rite of passage' involving Katon ninjutsu. This technique is available to anyone in the clan, regardless of age. What better time to learn it than now? Train 'Ninjutsu,' 'Katon,' and 'Chakra Control.' 5% chance to unlock skill 'Katon: Gōkakyū no Jutsu (Fire Release: Grand Fireball Technique)'

[X] Your grandparents are obnoxious and demeaning, but at least they treat you with the kind of reverence you deserve. You would not be averse to spending more time with them, at the very least it will give you more time to learn about the inner workings of the clan.
[X] You didn't have such a great time the last time you tried to interact with children your own age. Maybe take it a bit more slowly this time? There's supposed to be another genius child around your age, you should see about getting to know him.
 
DarkKing98 said:
Higher player base here + crits galore = stats raised far higher and faster than expected.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
The crits galore have stopped however, and the higher player base only provides a relatively minimal bonus. Takes 4 people on average to get one extra D+, for example. 6 per C+. And there are a lot of different stats out there that the voter base would have to spend their d50s on. There have only been 58 unique voters so far, most of which probably already had their die cast. Supposing only half of them have already contributed, that means it's only +725 more points on average across all the different scores (less than we gained last turn from normal training and only 1 crit)
 
Trondason said:
The crits galore have stopped however, and the higher player base only provides a relatively minimal bonus. Takes 4 people on average to get one extra D+, for example. 6 per C+. And there are a lot of different stats out there that the voter base would have to spend their d50s on. There have only been 58 unique voters so far, most of which probably already had their die cast. Supposing only half of them have already contributed, that means it's only +725 more points on average across all the different scores (less than we gained last turn from normal training and only 1 crit)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Your math is off. Double the 4 and 6.

Regardless though, crits galore happened. And QM doesn't want us too OP. 1 point can easily make a difference between a rank up in the future.
 
Trondason said:
I do not know "regression fitting a logarithm", might be a college course I haven't gotten to yet.

Anyways, while your various points are true, I feel that Average i still a fair projection, since we are talking about more than just 1 roll. We are making about a dozen per turn, and while we could achieve a TON of progress on one particular roll, we won't be making nearly as much on all the others (the instances where it doesn't even crit once, for example), so when we want to project possible growth over a long period of time, I'd think the average roll would be more useful. (Plus, it could crit a thousand times with any mod, even 0, what matters is how vanishingly small that possibility is)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I'll post an explanation after the update.

Trondason said:
Why was it ended here and not there?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

They're a few updates behind this quest, but I might start it again here as well. When I ended it we were an infant with better physical stats and chakra than many adults so I wanted to slow things down a bit. I'll say for sure in the update
 
Hm, I wonder if we all will ever come to an agreement on a single voting phase.

...nah, probably not.
 
Reader mode
You must login or register to reply here.
Remove ads
Back
Top