The Lonely Lioness - Cersei Lannister Quest

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Methinks the time is coming for Tywin to have an...accident. Once we're no longer on a war footing, he should die.

He brings very little to the table except a scary reputation. Kevan would do a fine job running the Westerlands in our stead until we get Jaime released from his oaths - he's competent, if not brilliant, and most importantly unambitious.

Besides, hating Tywin is something we can bond with Tyrion over.
 
Tjf said:
Methinks the time is coming for Tywin to have an...accident. Once we're no longer on a war footing, he should die.
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Frankly speaking, it would be extremely convenient for us if a lot of people were to be poisoned. Given that we'd be asking Varys to arrange the hits, however, I'm rather inclined we wait for the old man to die instead of adding another faction to the civil war.

We also oughta consider going along with his idea, honestly. The Tully gambit was based on the premise Renly would have the Reach on his side, but that's potentially not a given? We could shift gears - let Tywin pull off what he did in canon with a helping hand regarding the Freys, and shift our focus on courting the Tyrells; offer the Handship to Mace, for starters, since dear old dad can fight him for it if he wants.

Now, the risks here are equally obvious. Tywin might not actually do as well as canonically, and the Tyrells would have us over a negotiating barrel, which isn't a fun place to be.
 
If it gets known that we regularly take Shade of the Evening, that gives Tywin, Tyrion, Joffrey or whoever else casus belli to remove our status as regent and keep us confined to our room - anytime we contradict them, they can simply say that we're not thinking clearly. In a society like this, anything we say is taken with a grain of salt simply because we're a woman. We shouldn't give people more reason to doubt our judgement. To add to the danger, there's nothing we can do to stop Pycelle from spiking the substance. We have no one qualified around us to judge if the Shade of the Evening we get is tainted or untainted.

Besides, Greek tragedy has taught me that prophetic dreams aren't meant to be understood until it's too late. Cersei simply doesn't have the wisdom or temperament to interpret her dream and respond to it properly. Better to ignore it.
 
Azel said:
This proposal is a non-starter due to the nearly 20 years of age difference. Hoster and Edmure know from Lysa how miserable that would be for everyone involved, and Cersei is also rather touchy about this kind of thing.
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Damn. Figured Hoster wouldn't mind the ick factor, given historical precedent, and we could work out a new deal with Edmure once he finally kicked the bucket. Is there anything else we could offer to sweeten the pot, betrothal wise? Is Cersei a viable candidate here?
 
I think Cersei has no appetite for offering herself up as a prize or a bribe.
 
Taut_Templar said:
Damn. Figured Hoster wouldn't mind the ick factor, given historical precedent, and we could work out a new deal with Edmure once he finally kicked the bucket. Is there anything else we could offer to sweeten the pot, betrothal wise? Is Cersei a viable candidate here?
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Edmure is definitely not Jaime.

You could scrounge up a Lannisport Lannister bride.
 
A Lannisport Lannister bride would be seen as an insult. Even if it wasn't our intention, House Tully would take it as us saying they're only good enough for our lesser relatives.
 
Yeah, some lesser Lannister wouldn't be an LP's prize. So if Myrcella is out and Cersei is out, that just leaves Tommen. Unfortunately, I can't think of any unmarried Tully females at the moment - besides Catelyn, technically, but I don't think she'd appreciate the offer.

With that all established, we've gotta find something else to offer the Tullys. But it's hard to go up from Hand of the King. I guess we could offer the Blackfish a Kingsguard slot when one opens up? Have Joffrey declare Gregor an outlaw of the realm, regardless what Tywin says? But non-dynastic bribes naturally just further leader into Tywin's issue of 'abasing' house Lannister before its lessers.

I'm gonna sleep on the issue, surely there's some way we can make this work. Maybe if we just focus on getting Tyrion free before the invasion starts and denying Tywin his cassus belli? But that wouldn't solve the issue of the Tullys potentially siding with one of the pretenders …
 
[X] Plan Good Cop Lannister (she's not actually good)
-[X] [Nightmares] Cousin Lancel is not Jaime, but if you down a glass of wine and squint...
-[X] [Vale] Enough of this. Demand Lysa Arryn to present herself and her son at court to swear to Joffrey. You can talk to her in person once she arrives.
-[X] [Riverlands] Write Hoster Tully again to convince him to comply with your fathers demands to prevent worse bloodshed.

This plan is based around trying to turn Tywin's bloody-minded intransigience to our advantage. For the Tullies, we're trying to play the "reasonable" counterpart to Tywin. We've already gotten some goodwill by releasing Eddard and Sansa, so hopefully that purchased goodwill will carry us through. For Lysa, I'm very frankly banking on just letting Tywin's army intimidate her into letting Tyrion go. I don't trust Baelish to do anything on Cersei's behalf.

Also, no fucking around with drugs or magic.
 
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[X] Plan: Booze, glorious booze!

- [X] [Nightmares] The Arbor Gold is working. Somewhat. Better not risk the other options.

- [X] [Vale] Baelish offered to negotiate on your behalf. He has history with Lysa and would likely be well received.

- [X] [Riverlands] Eddard Stark's proclamation that Gregor Clegane is an enemy of the realm still stands. Write to Hoster Tully, commanding him to use any force necessary to apprehend the Mountain. Inform him that your father's host will be arriving to aid him in the criminal's apprehension. At the same time, tell Varys to spread word that any man who brings Gregor Clegane's head to King's Landing or Riverrun gets a 100 dragons and a knighthood (or a lordship if they're already a knight), with lower but still substantial prizes for whoever aids him. If no one's taking the offer, hire assassins directly. The Mountain delenda est - everything hinges upon it.



It takes time to assemble a mediaeval army. With luck, by the time Tywin's marched into the Riverlands, he'll be faced with a dead bannerman and orders from the queen regent. With a fait accompli in place, he'll have no choice but to pretend he was out to seize Gregor the whole time. No one will believe this, but it's a polite fiction no one will be bothered to poke holes in.

Of course, this all hinges on Lysa releasing Tyrion. Tywin's pride won't let him back down with a Lannister in prison, even if it's objectively the best option. Promise the little shitbird Baelish anything it takes to get him to convince Lysa to yield and claim the whole imprisonment was a misunderstanding.
 
Azel said:
We are already on the march to the Golden Tooth and will soon be ready to put the Tullys into their place and force the release of your brother Tyrion.
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He know that Lysa has him by now?

Raging against the Tullys serves no purpose at this point.

This is about as precise and sensible as America picking targets in the Middle East.
 
Artemis1992 said:
He know that Lysa has him by now?

Raging against the Tullys serves no purpose at this point.

This is about as precise and sensible as America picking targets in the Middle East.
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Tywin was literally outsmarted by a teenager. He's not winning "strategist of the year" any time soon. Ego is the primary driver of his decisions.
 
Welp, Tywin is an idiot, news at eleven. Does he realize we are the damn regent? That without Joffrey and thus Cersei his entire house is going to go down in flames because he does not have a claimant and most of the realm hates his guts? At this rate we will be making up with Tyrion just so we have someone to commiserate about his stupidity.

[X] Plan: Making the Gambit Work
-[X] [Nightmares] It's said that a glass of Shade of the Evening helps to sort out this kind of dream.
-[X] [Vale] Baelish offered to negotiate on your behalf. He has history with Lysa and would likely be well received.
--[X] Cut the slimy little creep a deal; he talks Lysa into releasing our stunted little brother and/or declaring for King Joffrey, and he'll have the Iron Throne's support for whatever he plans with Sweetrobin's regency.
-[X] [Riverlands] Write Hoster Tully again to convince him to comply with your fathers demands to prevent worse bloodshed.
--[X] Promise Hoster a betrothal between Edmure and Princess Myrcella in addition to the position of Hand and a Crown tax indemnity in compensation for the damages caused by Gregor's raiding, in exchange for an apology given for Tyrion's kidnapping appropriately face-saving for the Lannisters, and encouraging his daughter to release the Imp unharmed.
 
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Tjf said:
- [X] [Riverlands] Eddard Stark's proclamation that Gregor Clegane is an enemy of the realm still stands. Write to Hoster Tully, commanding him to use any force necessary to apprehend the Mountain. Inform him that your father's host will be arriving to aid him in the criminal's apprehension. At the same time, tell Varys to spread word that any man who brings Gregor Clegane's head to King's Landing or Riverrun gets a 100 dragons and a knighthood (or a lordship if they're already a knight), with lower but still substantial prizes for whoever aids him. If no one's taking the offer, hire assassins directly. The Mountain delenda est - everything hinges upon it.



It takes time to assemble a mediaeval army. With luck, by the time Tywin's marched into the Riverlands, he'll be faced with a dead bannerman and orders from the queen regent. With a fait accompli in place, he'll have no choice but to pretend he was out to seize Gregor the whole time. No one will believe this, but it's a polite fiction no one will be bothered to poke holes in.
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Ooh, I like this. Might steal for my own plan or switch my vote.
 
I think Jaime is going to the Eyrie to fight in a trial-by-combat for Tyrion. If Hoster seized him as hostage I doubt he will be trying to hide it at this point, he would send demands. Speaking of Eyrie, do we have a spare lordship somewhere we can promise Baelish for his services? He would be absolutely crucial at this point of time, we need to have him not bail on us.
 
[X] [Nightmares] It's said that a glass of Shade of the Evening helps to sort out this kind of dream.

Well, Cercei would either be a prophet, ot at least someone in a story can joke about how all our stupid decision were made because Cercei was on drugs.
 
Really though, I'm kind of against giving anything to Baelish. He's untrustworthy, and blatantly so.
 
Also, maybe save Myrcella for one of the Mace Tyrell children, for that upcoming bidding war with Renly. This is one way we can outbid him, Tyrells are way stronger then Tullies. It opens us up for potential Tyrell usurpation, but hopefully, they will not be that eager to usurp if Joffrey marriage to Margeary will happen.
 
Well yes, Baelish is a snake, but it is possible both Jaime and Tyrion would be in the Eyrie soon and Baelish is the one man who could guarantee their release, even if we do not know this in-character
 
Mechasaurian said:
Ooh, I like this. Might steal for my own plan or switch my vote.
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Mind you, this plan is risky in that it relies on a very specific sequence of events occurring. If Varys' spies can get word to the Riverlands faster than Tywin can get his army there, we're golden - Gregor's men are little better than bandits and thieves, and they're Lannister men. They might fear him, but if they hear we've turned on Gregor, they'll assume Tywin has as well (after all, it's not like they have good communications), and they fear Tywin more. Gregor's as vulnerable as anyone else when he's asleep.

If Tywin manages to move faster than OTL, though, the plan fails. The moment Gregor rejoins the main Westerlands host and his men realise that Tywin didn't betray Gregor, they won't dare make a move no matter how much coin we offer. In that case, the Riverlands and Westerlands end up at war, likely dragging in the Starks, and we look like ineffectual idiots.

I think the plan has a good chance of success - individual spies move way faster than an army, and I'm guessing Varys has some sort of relay system to get news across the Kingdoms quickly. Meanwhile, Tywin's not in a huge hurry - he doesn't care if Tyrion dies, so he'll be happy to wait a little longer to gather as many troops as possible before invading.

As for why Tywin would go along with pretending to be enforcing the King's Peace? Sexism. If Tywin publically admits that we had one of his bannermen killed, then he's admitting that his daughter - a woman - outmaneuvered him, and that he can't control his own family. He'd be laughed at openly, and his ego would never allow that. We're offering him an out, by letting him pretend the whole thing was his idea.
 
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Hm, Azel already stated that Hoster and Edmure would not take the bait of the betrothal to Myrcella because of the age difference.

The best that could be offered is a Lannisport Lannister bride, and such would not be suitable for a Lord Paramount.

Since there does not seem to be anything else that can be offered to House Tully, perhaps it would be best to do as suggested by playing the carrot to Tywin's stick.
 
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