Some solutions to the Fermi Paradox

You'd need something like a Lofstrom loop to launch payloads from a high-gravity world, which probably means a collectivist society that's good at building megaprojects, which means they're more likely to go colonize the galaxy.
Maybe. Or maybe they can't function well in the tiny numbers that early space travel would impose on them.

I mean we humans tend to become distressed or unstable in isolation; members of a highly collectivist species might well fall apart even faster than we do under such conditions.
 
I mean, "galaxy billions of light years away" is rather irrelevant to begin with. Due to the lightspeed barrier and the expansion of the universe, we will never be able to interact with that galaxy anyway. What matters is life in this galaxy, or at least local group.

And the thing is, at that more meaningful scope, any attempts at mega-engineering would probably emit so much energy that we would notice something. Indeed, that is most likely true of any activities of advanced species, a very notable energy use. That, at least to me, is part and parcel of the Fermi Paradox. It isn't even "If there is other life, why isn't it here?" it's also "Why don't we see it?".

Sure, but again we've only been actively looking for intelligent life for less than a century, doing so in an incredibly piecemeal and patchwork way, and doing that piecemeal and patchwork search along very specific lines. It is very much akin to someone stranded on an island shouting out across the ocean for a few days, then assuming they're the only person on Earth because no one shouted back.

Discussions about the detectability of Dyson-sphere level mega projects are fun, but they're also nothing but vague hypotheticals cooked up by sci fi writers in the 50's. That we haven't found evidence (again, in our decades of searching a billennia old universe) of their existence doesn't mean that super-intelligent life doesn't exist, it means...no one's built a Dyson sphere yet (probably).

*EDIT* Just as a hypothetical, let's say you parked one of our current deep space telescope satellites in, I dunno, Alpha Centauri (or another nearby star system) and pointed it at Earth - would you detect anything that would tell you an advanced, tool-using civilization was there?
 
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Carl Sagan actually did the math on this, turns out with the available space and resources in a star system and its close neighbors there is very little or no need to expand at the rate people have been suggesting, even mega projects such as dyson swarms or von Neumann machines are often completely unnecessary. Course this is completely ignored and most of our current views on the fermi paradox is the result of one hack who was trying to shut down SETI.

Also the window for a civilization to give off detectable radio waves that aren't specifically directed at us is extremely small so good luck detecting that especially since Sol is in the middle of galactic nowhere and (if I recall correctly) in a dust cloud that does a really good job of scrambling the few radiowaves that haven't faded into the cosmic background.
 
I'm betting it's an Anti-Malthusian Trap.
Already birth rates are below replacement in many developing countries.
 
Carl Sagan actually did the math on this, turns out with the available space and resources in a star system and its close neighbors there is very little or no need to expand at the rate people have been suggesting, even mega projects such as dyson swarms or von Neumann machines are often completely unnecessary. Course this is completely ignored and most of our current views on the fermi paradox is the result of one hack who was trying to shut down SETI.

Also the window for a civilization to give off detectable radio waves that aren't specifically directed at us is extremely small so good luck detecting that especially since Sol is in the middle of galactic nowhere and (if I recall correctly) in a dust cloud that does a really good job of scrambling the few radiowaves that haven't faded into the cosmic background.

The whole Fermi Paradox is in effect driven by the assumption that intelligent life will behave as some humans want to. That is, extra-solar expansion as nerd manifest destiny.

In reality, this gets into a pretty nasty debate even among hard sci-fi writers and hardcore fans/lit critics. This a group for whom the budget concerns are abstract, mind. On the one hand you have the longstanding humanist/realist branch where humans applied to space are still human and therefore clash with the experience. Generation ship comes from sci-fi but it's rare to have a story where it works as intended, for credible reasons. Forever War and Ender's Game, to pick another couple classics, advance some serious consequences of using humans as implements for whatever tech. Even really good, implausible tech.

The opposing camp is "we're in this to dream and problem solve for mankind's destiny, not write tautological literary caution tales." Elon Musk goes here when the subject is Mars. This is where it gets nasty as the first camp is accused of being pessimistic or not understanding true science, while the latter is accused of "sufficiently advanced technology" or reasoning such as "the unconceived have no rights," re: generation ships.

This is in the expansionist species and among the most expansion-thinking members of it, who mostly aren't budgeting or trying to win popular support. Once you start arguing for a substantial % of global GDP to be invested in this, it will get nastier.

It's entirely reasonable than an alien species living where Earth is might look at Alpha Centauri, conclude the system is useless (too inhospitable to have a useful planet), and never bother sending a probe. This isn't that different from the hard sci-fi/HFY arguments against alien invasion of thermonuclear-armed Earth. The expense of the journey and casualties get...what? Why would we ever attack that?
 
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I don't think it's that outlandish a claim. Here's the thing... as you probably know, tool use is well documented in animal species beyond just humans. Chimpanzees, crows, etc, they all can use tools. However, that is stuff like a stick to, well, stick into an ants nest or a simple stone dropped. Nothing of the sort of spears, specially worked and cut stones or fire. And yet that doesn't seem to be a cultural development. Those animal species are not progressing from sticks and stones to spears and finely cut stones. It seems those simple tools are in fact the limit of their ability.

So... I do not find it outlandish to suggest that the more complex a tool gets, the more likely it might get beyond a species' tool use ability, and that even with cultural scientific development, where one builds on the other, eventually a hard barrier might be reached. In terms of spears versus atomics, I do think there is a lot more need for abstract thinking necessary for the latter, for example. A spear is a physical object in front of you you can manipulate; atoms are basically just concepts you can't see and have to deduce. Now, of course, our own ancestors already had that potential for abstract thought; stone age humans weren't stupider than nowadays after all... but I do think we could envision a species whose tool use ability might be enough for spears but not much beyond that.
The thing is we know species that made tools basically equivalent to what modern humans did, they are our immediate relatives and and ancestors. These are very closely related species to us, presuming that we really needed more than fire and spears is to presume that human evolution suddenly became much, much faster than it had in the past.

I'd argue that in many ways the sort of abstract thought involved in atomics is actually easier for a modern human than developing and working with stone tools would have been. Today we're equipped with a whole framework for thinking about such concepts, preserving our thoughts, preserving the results of experiments, and sophisticated and reliable tools for executing an experiment. In the past though, it would have been much harder- you would have had much less access to other experts, would be relying on memory to plan out what to do and record what worked, the already existing tools were much more crude, the sort of powerful mathematical frameworks we have today didn't exist.
 
An intelligent species that lacked the tolerance for high G forces to survive a rocket ride into space might be able to get into space using space elevators. They'd have to send components of the elevator into orbit first, which would be an issue, but they might be able to handle that part by using robots.

*EDIT* Just as a hypothetical, let's say you parked one of our current deep space telescope satellites in, I dunno, Alpha Centauri (or another nearby star system) and pointed it at Earth - would you detect anything that would tell you an advanced, tool-using civilization was there?
Maybe? Our civilization does emit a lot of radio signals, though they'd mostly be pretty weak at light-years distances. It might depend on whether they were lucky enough to have a powerful directional signal like an airport radar or military radar pointed in their general direction at the right time.

Worth noting though that a civilization that was basically like ours but some things a little differently might be a lot less detectable. The most powerful regular Earth signals were the Cold War warning radars; a more peaceful civilization wouldn't have anything like that (unless maybe it was an incoming meteorite detection system or something like that). A civilization that used air travel a lot less and something like high speed trains a lot more might have a lot fewer airport radars. A civilization that relied more on landlines, fiber optic cables, etc. and less on radio transmission might emit very little radio leakage compared to ours (notably, radio and TV signals are the ones that come closest to being omnidirectional). It's not hard to imagine a technological civilization around Alpha Centauri that we'd probably miss, even if they could probably detect us with something roughly equivalent to our present technology and radio astronomy/SETI spending. That might be an interesting asymmetry for science fiction: they might notice our radio broadcasts and recognize them as artificial, but they probably wouldn't be able to understand them, just know that somebody was sending out artificial-looking signals; they'd know very little about us and the ball would be firmly in their court whether they want to reveal their existence to us or not. It'd be funny if one side eventually sends a ship over to the other and finally meets them in 2100 or something and then we find out we could have had confirmation of intelligent aliens in 1970 and the only reason that didn't happen was the "we shouldn't call attention to ourselves until we know more about these aliens, they might be hostile and technologically advanced enough to reach our star system" side won the debate over there.

Carl Sagan actually did the math on this, turns out with the available space and resources in a star system and its close neighbors there is very little or no need to expand at the rate people have been suggesting, even mega projects such as dyson swarms or von Neumann machines are often completely unnecessary.
A solar system is vast but exponential growth/compound interest is powerful. A species that reproduced no faster than humans could easily fill up the galaxy in an eyeblink in cosmic time if they were inclined to do so and rate of reproduction was the only limiting factor (and aliens might easily reproduce faster than humans, though I suspect probably not much faster; any intelligent species with sophisticated tool use and culture is probably a K strategist).

The whole Fermi Paradox is in effect driven by the assumption that intelligent life will behave as some humans want to.
I'd say it's driven by the assumption that some intelligent life will behave as some humans want to, which seems more plausible.

We might imagine some highly advanced species drawing up a list of sapient species in our galaxy noting how likely they are to colonize the galaxy some day. Entries from it might read something like this:

Species 1147 ("[complex ultrasonic signal]"):
Inhabit a hot and humid water-oxygen planet with 5.6 bars air pressure at the surface (atmosphere mostly nitrogen) orbiting a F8 star. Dwell outside water. Arboreal omnivore, moderate size (adult females 15-30 kg, adult males 25-50 kg), natural average lifespan 57 years (to old age), two sexes, high sexual dimorphism (males exhibit colorful plumage and have complex display structures, females are drab and lack these structures), oviparous typically laying one egg at a time with normal reproductive rate of 1 egg per every 2-4 years, communicate by ultrasonic signals. Six limbs: in females two wings and four hands, in males two wings, two hands, and two display structures. Females have moderate flight capability but primary method of locomotion is brachiation; males are unable to fly because their wings have evolved to serve as large display structures used in mating dances and are not functional for flight; males rely entirely on brachiation. Sapience evolved as a consequence of runaway sexual and social selection (with complex feeding strategies and predation pressure a contributing factor). Typically live in groups of between 5 and 200 individuals with complex social structures. Food is obtained by hunting and gathering. Brains are heavily specialized for social intelligence. Both sexes of species 1147 are highly intelligent, but mostly uninterested in physical problems, their intelligence almost entirely devoted to socialization and mating strategies. Tool use is limited to a complex array of stone, wood, and bone hand tools and woven nets and baskets. Species 1147, especially males, devotes a great deal of energy to art, chiefly wood carving, bone carving, jewelry, painting, body painting (body paint and jewelry are worn mostly by the males), textile arts, and ultrasonic song/poetry. History is somewhat difficult to reconstruct due to poor preservation due to the "jungle world" nature of this planet, but limited available fossils and genetic analysis suggests that Species 1147 achieved approximately its present physical and cultural form approximately 137 million years ago and has changed little since. Possibility of galaxy colonization: very low.

Species 42188 ("[complex ultrasonic signal]"):

Inhabit a hot water-oxygen planet with .8 bars air pressure at the surface orbiting a F7 star. Dwell outside water. Conditions on home planet land mass trend toward aridity due to continent configuration, but extensive humid regions exist near some of the coasts. Species 42188 is adaptable and has colonized most of the planet's land. Species 42188 is a large terrestrial omnivore: average adult weight 900 kg, six limbs (two arms and four legs). Hermaphroditic and oviparous, typically laying one egg at a time. Natural average lifespan 280 years (to old age). Communicate by ultrasound. Sapience evolved as a consequence of social selection, environmental stresses, and competition with other large omnivores and carnivores (those competing large omnivore and carnivore species are now extinct). Typically live in groups of between 5 and 100 closely related individuals. Kin are recognized by scent. Social cooperation is instinctively reserved for kin. Species 42188 are highly cooperative and form strong emotional bonds within their kin-group, but non-kin mostly meet only to mate. There is some limited capacity for cooperation with non-kin in service of some near-term goal, but the presence of non-kin make a member of Species 42188 highly fearful and aggressive; non-kin are regarded as competitors, threats, and/or opportunities for theft and/or cannibalism (mating among species 42188 is a rather fearful affair; it is done on "neutral ground" well away from the kin-groups of both partners, and engaging in mating means accepting a risk that one may be opportunistically killed and fed upon after or in lieu of the mating). This socialization pattern means Species 42188 is unable to form communities larger than villages. Species 42188 kin-groups in more humid and richer regions are larger (between 20 and 100 individuals) and exist as sedentary villages, usually dependent on agriculture and/or fishing. In areas unsuitable for agriculture or fishing kin-groups are usually smaller (between 2 and 15 individuals), nomadic, and exist as hunter-gatherers. Technology is relatively sophisticated (e.g. iron-working in village forges is common), but remains mostly limited to hand tools and relatively primitive structures of wood, mud-brick, etc.. Paleontological evidence indicates that Species 42188 achieved approximately its present physical form 32 million years ago and has made only slow and incremental progress since. Given their socialization pattern, it seems unlikely that they could ever develop a high-tech industrial civilization of the sort that might be able to build spacecraft. Possibility of galaxy colonization: very low.

Species 26991 ("[complex infrasonic rumble"]):

Inhabit a cold water-oxygen planet orbiting a K1 star, with limited surface water and a .35 bar atmosphere (48% oxygen). Omnivore, average adult weight 2100 kg. Quadrupedal, with short thick legs, body is mostly covered by a bony shell, there is a tail protected by bony scutes that ends in a defensive heavy bone club. Manipulatory organs are two arm-like structures near the mouth which end in hand-like structures; they are distantly derived from mandibles. Communicate by infrasound generated by organs in the torso. Natural average lifespan: 420 years (to old age). Hermaphroditic, oviparous, typically lay one egg at a time, slow breeding (average one egg laid per 50 years). Curious, inventive, highly intelligent. Sapience evolved as a consequence of social selection, predation pressure, and environmental stress. Agricultural society with states and cities in the most fertile areas of the planet. Relatively sophisticated technology (primitive radios, aircraft, etc.), but development is constrained by limited resources, especially limited access to fossil fuels; economy still basically agricultural and preindustrial. Population constrained by limited ecological space: areas more than approx. 30 degrees from the equator are uninhabitably cold and majority of habitable temperature region is desert. Population constrained by large size and hence large food requirements of Species 26991. Planetary population: approximately 11 million. Technological progress and economic development constrained by small population size and limited resources. Paleontological and archaeological evidence and historical records indicate: Species 26991 achieved approximate present physical form 3 million years ago, achieved an agricultural society 100,000 years ago, achieved approximately its present level of technology 3000 years ago. Possibility of galaxy colonization: moderate.

Species 72244 ("The Last Generation, Immortal, Who Dwell In Paradise"):
This species once had more conventional bodies, but now exist as disembodied brains of approximately 70 kg sustained by artificial machinery. Sophisticated medical technology has given these beings an indefinite lifespan, and they have been alive since their species made its transition into this form 14 million years ago. They do not reproduce, though they could easily create more of themselves if they desired to. These brains are connected to an extremely complex shared dreamworld that they collectively control. They generally feel that this dreamworld is vastly superior to the real physical world. They consider themselves a very successful culture and the successful culmination of the hopes and dreams of their ancestors. They consider the real physical world boring and mostly want as little as possible to do with it. The surface of their planet has largely been allowed to return to a wilderness state, the ancient cities abandoned to crumble into dust; all that remains is a minimalistic support infrastructure for the brains and the dreamworld, mostly maintained by automated systems, although the infrastructure does occasionally require some attention from a few of the brains via teleoperation (this duty is mostly performed by a few eccentrics who still feel some lingering affection for interacting with the real physical world). The brains are friendly to aliens who visit their world, but mostly have little desire to interact with the universe beyond their dreamworld. In material terms, their culture has changed very little in 14 million years (they would say this is because you can't improve on perfection). Their society is limited to one solar system, and mostly to their original homeworld (the only space presence is a few asteroid mines, an anti-meteorite defense system, etc.). Occasionally some eccentric among them will commission the construction of a highly automated starship-body which they then use to leave and explore the galaxy, but this is usually an enterprise of a only a single individual or a small group and motivated only by curiosity. Possibility of galaxy colonization: low.

Species 67968 ("Humans"):

Inhabit a cool-temperate water-oxygen planet with a 1 bar atmosphere orbiting a G2 star. Dwell outside water. Omnivore, adult weight 50-200 kg, four limbs (two arms and two legs), two sexes, moderate sex dimorphism, natural average lifespan 80 years (to old age). Communicate by sound. Curious, inventive, relatively rapid technological progress; achieved approximately present physical form 200,000 years ago, developed an agricultural society 10,000 years ago, invented coal-fired steam engines approx. 200 years ago, presently a global-industrial society with approx. 8 billion individuals, nuclear power, limited space exploration, experiencing rapid economic growth and technological progress (this description likely to be outdated within 10-100 years). Viviparous, reproduction painful, difficult, and dangerous (for females), under high-tech conditions reproduction trends toward replacement rate or below replacement rate. Relatively short lifespans lead to difficulty with long-term planning and long-term coordination; civilization trends toward instability. Possibility of galaxy colonization: moderate.

Species 97003 ("[a series of notes like a flute might make]"):

Omnivore, six limbs (two arms and four legs), average adult weight 50 kg. Originally native to a warm-temperate water-oxygen planet with a 1 bar atmosphere orbiting a G8 star. Communicates by sound, generated by a vocal apparatus similar to a complex wind instrument. Natural average lifespan 55 years (to old age). Hermaphroditic, viviparous, infants are born small (less than 1 kg) and nearly mindless but relatively robust and capable of simple physical activities like walking within a few minutes of birth, and then grow to physical, mental, and sexual maturity within 15 years. Sapience evolved as a consequence of social selection, predation pressure, and complex feeding strategies. Curious, inventive, communitarian, long-term thinkers, strong group solidarity, tendency toward xenophobia (Species 97003 has very much been shaped by an evolutionary history as a prey species - paleontological evidence suggests exterminating their predators to extinction was one of the first things they did upon developing weapons better than stone hand axes). Individuals of Species 97003 seem to instinctively desire to reproduce as an end in itself; producing and raising offspring is one of the greatest satisfactions of a typical Species 97003 individual's life, and they take so much joy in it that they almost universally desire large family sizes. A Species 97003 mated pair will typically produce something between 3 and 10 offspring in their lifetimes. Replacement rate reproduction in Species 97003 can be maintained only by severe coercion, and the brief historical period when this was necessary because of the resource limitations of their homeworld is remembered by them with horror. This might be a legacy of Species 97003's evolutionary history as a prey species. The history of Species 97003 is one of rapid progress (though marred by extremely violent wars caused by population pressure, including four nuclear holocausts), they reached a space age level of technology within 3000 years of the emergence of their first cities, and they responded to space travel and then star drives by expanding rapidly. Species 97003 has now been starfaring for less than 10,000 years and in that time they have colonized several million solar systems. The vast majority of Species 97003's population lives in space habitats, which allows them to colonize almost any star system and to colonize those solar systems extensively; a typical solar system inhabited by Species 97003 has trillions or quadrillions of inhabitants. The total Species 97003 population is estimated to be at least 10^21 individuals, possibly much higher, and growing fast. The Species 97003 colonization volume is advancing across the galaxy at close to the speed of light. Possibility of galaxy colonization: very high.

Notably, Species 97003 is the only one where you can take a look at them and say "yeah, if a species like that started spreading out 10 million years ago, we'd probably either know they existed pretty quickly or wouldn't be here"... but that's all it takes.
 
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Looking at the OP, I'm inclined to think that any other life is either around or below our technlogical level and are probably have this exact same discussion right now. Others could be hiding in some region we can't properly map or check over whilst anything more advanced might well be masking their presence.
 
Huh. Doesn't that system have a horrible fault that anything capable of turning one hotbox bad is probably capable of doing the same to every other hotbox too, and since communication is faster than travel it would effectively mean that sure, they would get an early-warning. But what good does that do when their newly-spun hotbox turns on them?

Not to mention the hotbox has nearly infinitely more time to think of ways to break through each and every safeguard they have.

(also spinning yourself down is effectively decreasing your lifespan, in these circumstances.)

it's a neat idea but is hyper vulnerable to something that can turn hotboxes against the glacial minds.
This is like saying "there's no point sending people after traitors because whatever convinced them to turn on you will also convince the people you send". In practice, when someone betrays their group it's usually for reasons that most group members find uncompelling. Of course it's possible that there's some idea that would convince everyone in civilization to abandon their current way of life or something, but that's independent of the differential in speed.

As for safeguards, as described the primary safeguard is the speed of light, which by assumption can't be broken by any amount of ingenuity (and that probably really is true IRL).
Sure, but again we've only been actively looking for intelligent life for less than a century, doing so in an incredibly piecemeal and patchwork way, and doing that piecemeal and patchwork search along very specific lines. It is very much akin to someone stranded on an island shouting out across the ocean for a few days, then assuming they're the only person on Earth because no one shouted back.
The very fact that we have to shout across the ocean, rather then just looking at entities that have been here since before recorded history, is a remarkable discovery. It places very tight constraints on either the stable existence of intelligent life, its tendency towards expansion, or on what can be done technologically, none of which we had prior reason to expect, and the second and third of which we have direct evidence against.
 
The very fact that we have to shout across the ocean, rather then just looking at entities that have been here since before recorded history, is a remarkable discovery. It places very tight constraints on either the stable existence of intelligent life, its tendency towards expansion, or on what can be done technologically, none of which we had prior reason to expect, and the second and third of which we have direct evidence against.
Do we have direct evidence against tight constraints on what can be done technologically? If anything I'd say we are developing an increasingly sophisticated array of direct evidence in favour of such a tight constraint.
 
I mean the answer to the Fermi paradox can just as easily be the same answer as a lot of space science mysteries. "Oops we were reading the data wrong", "Oops we just didn't have enough data", "Oops we weren't looking in a very specific place at a very specific time", "Oops there was an unknown factor in how space works thats fucks up our entire premise", "Oops it was kinda stupid to think aliens would know to do first contact for us and we literally need to build a big enough radio transmitter/receiver to do it ourselves".

Chances are unless the aliens decide to do the trumpet boy meme at us we won't know for sure if our alien searching methods even hold water until we get a probe over to another star and have it start shooting messages at us. Just like we didn't know how we could detect life on a planet until we tested it on our own planet.

Speculation is all well and good but ultimately the real answer to the fermi paradox is to stop whining about being alone in the universe and keep gathering and analyzing data.
 
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@Memphet'ran
If you do a few more of those blurbs & give them a bit of framing narrative then you could have a very nice story to post on the creative writing forum.
I would definitely read it.
 
I mean the answer to the Fermi paradox can just as easily be the same answer as a lot of space science mysteries. "Oops we were reading the data wrong", "Oops we just didn't have enough data", "Oops we weren't looking in a very specific place at a very specific time", "Oops there was an unknown factor in how space works thats fucks up our entire premise", "Oops it was kinda stupid to think aliens would know to do first contact for us and we literally need to build a big enough radio transmitter/receiver to do it ourselves".

Chances are unless the aliens decide to do the trumpet boy meme at us we won't know for sure if our alien searching methods even hold water until we get a probe over to another star and have it start shooting messages at us. Just like we didn't know how we could detect life on a planet until we tested it on our own planet.

Speculation is all well and good but ultimately the real answer to the fermi paradox is to stop whining about being alone in the universe and keep gathering and analyzing data.

The Paradox is more about interstellar colonization than communication. There are plenty of non-paradox explanations for why ET isn't calling us even if civilizations that can do so are common. These are and/or.

1. We use the wrong equipment.

2. We have been able to listen for an insignificant amount of time.

3. Average distance between technological civilizations is so vast that only directed, intentional signals can be received; Earth is not detectable or interesting.

4. Even with directed, intentional signals, physics prevent sending an intelligible message over the average distance required.

5. Active SETI gets you killed by paranoid, more advanced races.

6. Civilizations conclude that risk management says No.5 is too great to risk with no benefit beyond curiosity. As with "this isn't worth it" for colonization, many space-inclined Earthlings feel this way about Active SETI.

7. Advanced civilizations are staggered just enough in time that the cosmically brief moments they could talk to each other do not line up.

And so on.
 
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Do we have direct evidence against tight constraints on what can be done technologically?
Yes.

The parts of the current theories of physics that are required for an expansionist, long lived civilization to consume at least their local galaxy cluster, and probably the observable universe*, are not obscure, difficult to test principles like super-symmetry or the most recent pop-sci article about extra dimensions and dark matter. They're just the ordinary principles we experience every day, like acceleration, computing, and computer-controlled manufacturing, applied at scale. Finding out that galactic colonization is impossible wouldn't be like discovering string theory isn't true, it would be like discovering that, jokes on us, the sun really does go around the earth, or that souls are real, or that nothing beyond the heliopause actually exists.

It's easy to say the words "maybe this is just impossible", but unless the universe is ontologically very different from what we thought it was the only things that can actually be true are much, much lower level then that, and while we don't know the true laws of physics the effective theories that hold at "reasonable" energies and scales are pinned down hard.

This paper takes a look at the concrete technological, energy, and material costs of universal colonization, based on what we already know must be allowed. I would really recommend you read it and think about what it would look like if any of the things it suggests were, not just difficult or expensive to do today, but actually impossible for reasons stemming from the same laws that govern everything around us, and everything we do, today.

* Due to the ongoing expansion of the universe, inter-galaxy cluster colonization has a time limit that galactic colonization doesn't. This forces a minimum speed on the colonization probe, while the density of intergalactic dust imposes a soft maximum. Current estimates imply a large gap here, but I'm not sure how reliable those are, and it doesn't have any obvious Earth-local effects. None of this applies to the hundred billion or so stars in our gravitationally bound galaxy cluster because you can just go slow if you need to and there's not much distance to cover.
 
Galactic colonization cannot be done by stupid/irrational species because it is too dificult; and is not done by smart/rational species because the cost-benefit ratio is too low.
 
On the matter of escaping our local cluster I propose that we set off gamma ray bursts pointed at promising clusters & modulate the energy output to transmit information about our galactic civilization which locals might use to reconstruct our ambassadors.
Can't get much better than light speed.
BTW has anyone calculated the Shannon entropy of recorded GRBs?
 
Galactic colonization cannot be done by stupid/irrational species because it is too dificult; and is not done by smart/rational species because the cost-benefit ratio is too low.

There also is a variable minimum speed on doing it, which is the necessary speed to reach a second, development-viable system, with enough to develop it, before unrecoverable failure happens in tech or colonists. That can include the expected lifespan of critical systems in cosmic radiation, the per-year odds of a collision or other major accident, the per-year degradation of artificial biosphere on the ship and how long the crew can survive in a state necessary to develop the second system.

This minimum has to be below the maximum of what your technology can do.
 
@Memphet'ran
If you do a few more of those blurbs & give them a bit of framing narrative then you could have a very nice story to post on the creative writing forum.
I would definitely read it.
Aww, thanks! (I kind of wish we had a rating for that).

Yes.

The parts of the current theories of physics that are required for an expansionist, long lived civilization to consume at least their local galaxy cluster, and probably the observable universe*, are not obscure, difficult to test principles like super-symmetry or the most recent pop-sci article about extra dimensions and dark matter. They're just the ordinary principles we experience every day, like acceleration, computing, and computer-controlled manufacturing, applied at scale. Finding out that galactic colonization is impossible wouldn't be like discovering string theory isn't true, it would be like discovering that, jokes on us, the sun really does go around the earth, or that souls are real, or that nothing beyond the heliopause actually exists.

It's easy to say the words "maybe this is just impossible", but unless the universe is ontologically very different from what we thought it was the only things that can actually be true are much, much lower level then that, and while we don't know the true laws of physics the effective theories that hold at "reasonable" energies and scales are pinned down hard.

This paper takes a look at the concrete technological, energy, and material costs of universal colonization, based on what we already know must be allowed. I would really recommend you read it and think about what it would look like if any of the things it suggests were, not just difficult or expensive to do today, but actually impossible for reasons stemming from the same laws that govern everything around us, and everything we do, today.

* Due to the ongoing expansion of the universe, inter-galaxy cluster colonization has a time limit that galactic colonization doesn't. This forces a minimum speed on the colonization probe, while the density of intergalactic dust imposes a soft maximum. Current estimates imply a large gap here, but I'm not sure how reliable those are, and it doesn't have any obvious Earth-local effects. None of this applies to the hundred billion or so stars in our gravitationally bound galaxy cluster because you can just go slow if you need to and there's not much distance to cover.
It might turn out to be possible in a spherical cow sense but in reality so difficult that it's for all practical purposes impossible. The technical challenges of "fast" interstellar travel (e.g. Bussard ramjets and laser lightsails) are considerable. The technical and social challenges of building a generation ship that can reliably survive a "slow" interstellar journey are also considerable. The technical challenges of cramming a viable "seed package" for a high-tech civilization into something smaller than a large nation-state are considerable (and realistically you're almost certainly going to have to do that; you won't be able to get spare parts from home and you won't have a nice shirtsleeve world where you can fall back on fishing nets and obsidian-tipped spears and oxen-drawn plows if things go wrong). The third thing is easier if you have science fictional technologies like general molecular assemblers, but we can't be sure those will work (notably, unlike the "well, the human brain works so AI should" argument, we cannot point to such things existing in nature; all the real replicators we know about are highly specialized and/or do something much less ambitious). The second thing is easier if you can work with beings better adapted to long-term planning and space travel than humans (e.g. uploads and AIs), but that gets you into areas where the science is a lot fuzzier than straightforward considerations of mass, energy, fuel expenditure, etc.. Looking at the challenges that would be involved, I think "interstellar colonization is just too difficult" is a depressingly plausible Fermi Paradox explanation.

The most feasible way of colonizing the galaxy might turn out to be the "there's probably a more-or-less continuous carpet of billion ton ice mountains every 10-100 AU or so across the galactic disk, island hop across them" strategy, and that would be so slow it might easily take billions of years to colonize the galaxy that way (and beings at home in such an environment might not be interested in planets; if there were billions of such aliens living in Sol's Oort Cloud, would we know?).
 
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I feel like there are some hypothetical Alien civilizations that we can safely discount. Something like @Memphet'ran Species 97003 is likely impossible because if it wasn't why aren't they already here. I can figure two reasons why this could be.

One is that our understanding of how the universe works and what is possible is still so limited that we can not even imagine what a million or even billion year old technological civilization would look like. We're like bunch of ants who have dismissed the possibility that they share the world with another nest building species because their scouts have searched all over the great asphalt plains and never found any pheromone trails that weren't from other ants.

Or alternatively as I've said before we are vastly underestimating the challenge of interstellar colonization and overestimating the rate of expansion of high-technology civilizations. What I'd expect to see in this sort of "our science is mostly right and interstellar colonization is really hard" could be pretty hard for us to spot. We still have trouble picking out terrestrial planets, an advanced technological civilization would be a cloud of space habitats each no larger than an asteroid. If those habitats are communicating with each-other and their planet by some kind of energy efficient tightbeam we'd be hard pressed to notice them even if they were relatively close. Such a civilization I'd expect would not send colonization missions to other star-systems but might instead send automated drones to nearby systems to grab their choicest space rocks and drag them to the home system for processing.
 
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This paper takes a look at the concrete technological, energy, and material costs of universal colonization, based on what we already know must be allowed. I would really recommend you read it and think about what it would look like if any of the things it suggests were, not just difficult or expensive to do today, but actually impossible for reasons stemming from the same laws that govern everything around us, and everything we do, today.
"This paper" makes a lot of broad and sweeping assumptions about the state of realistic engineering. Like have you actually read this thing you're citing? The basic gist of their 'plausible' probe is a self-replicating replicator weighing 30g attached to an unbelievably efficient nuclear rocket weighing 35 tons which is somehow magically folded into an 800kJ grenade-proof, 1cm disc hurtling through intergalactic space at 0.5c and which can arbitrarily repair itself mid-voyage from non-existent extra material it doesn't have because it's hurtling through intergalactic space before then unfolding (again, magically) into said unbelievably efficient nuclear rocket in order to decelerate back down to not massively relativistic in order to land on exo-planets. In order to throw these probes out into the universe, we must of course first build a Dyson-swarm out of a deconstructed mercury in a process that takes about three decades. Then, we funnel the entire power output of a main-sequence star for over half an hour into a coil gun or something of similar nature in order to build up the necessary speed for one probe to visit one galaxy.

Some of this stuff is "reasonable" through a certain kind of lens but fundamentally when you put them all together it relies on a version of physics that we are pretty close to eliminating as a possibility at this point. The plausibility of a Dyson sphere, to begin with, is in question because that's a lot of fucking energy you have to store. Likewise, getting the power to a single coil gun to shoot our 35t impossible bullet is probably beyond the bounds of possible material science. Also, the impossible bullet itself probably cannot be built. Also, I don't think the rocket can work the way they describe it. The more of this stuff you actually account for rather than running off into sci-fi fantasy land, the harder and harder it becomes until eventually, you're looking at a "rocket" which is actually a mobile moon that requires you to channel the power of several million stars to get moving.

Like, Space colonisation on this scale is real fucking hard my guy. Some philosophers at a futurist institute (and I don't call them this to be dismissive, but to accurately describe them) are not the people I'm interested in hearing about the realities of engineering from.
 
Any device capable of self replicating in a 30g package is going to be very interesting indeed.
My thinking is it would need some sort of atomic assembly system. Possibly you would aim it at a star near your destination to make a close up deceleration burn/slingshot. It would have to take a very close trajectory so it can electromagnetically separate atoms from the denser solar wind, and also so it can extract the energy to do so from the high energy environment.
I don't think that bringing a power source with you is an idea that tracks. You have to collect energy at your destination. Luckily you are already a relativistic projectile traveling through a relative soup of ionized gas. You would need to figure out some sort of self exciting magnetic shield to keep the probe intact. I'm thinking the physical part of the probe looks like a torus or maybe a tube with the hole oriented along the direction of travel.
Ionized atoms traveling through the center run a sort of magnetic turbine that powers the device.
This power is used to divert most ionized particles slightly so they don't damage the device.
Atoms of the correct element can be sorted out and accelerated to the devices reference frame before being directed to the assembly surface of the device.
 
I feel like there are some hypothetical Alien civilizations that we can safely discount. Something like @Memphet'ran Species 97003 is likely impossible because if it wasn't why aren't they already here.
Well, yeah, they were written to illustrate why the Fermi Paradox is a paradox; if intelligent life is common and colonizing the galaxy is feasible it seems likely that something like Species 97003 would pop up sooner or later.

One possibility is that other, more established civilizations may usually act to constrain a group like that. When I was writing them up I thought of adding some mentions that Species 97003 might become a problem for galactic society soon and their rapid expansion has already brought them into conflict with a large and powerful nearby empire or two. It's not hard to imagine that the most powerful and established interstellar societies may object to some upstarts enclosing the galactic commons. The most powerful and established civilizations might value uninhabited solar systems as the "primordial soup" from which interesting new intelligent species and cultures arise, kind of like the Five Galaxies society in David Brin's Uplift novels. Or they might simply see a species like Species 97003 as a potential long-term threat; I'd be a little worried about humanity's long-term future if I knew we shared the galaxy with a species like that.
 
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