Definitely a valid position, and while I think that giving the Samnites more time
could lead to even more of them abandoning the city, I see the appeal of voting for Pomolussa's stratagem.
@Simon_Jester I see your line of argument against the Carcellan stratagem, and it is well thought out. My main issue with it is this: Between us players advising (read: choosing) the strategy here and Meddix then coming out to ambush the 'blocking' cohort you leave no room for Sertorius to mechanically influence the outcome. This is his campaign not ours. I doubt that the QM would offer up strategies that Seratorius thinks aren't viable.
The flip side of that is that if we're going to metagame like that (not necessarily a bad thing), we can't just assume that the QM would
only offer up strategies likely to lead to a good outcome, or that major predictable bad consequences won't happen because Sertorius would be a fool to get suckered into such a situation. If you vote to advise a friend to walk up to the lion and put their head in between its jaws, the result is predictable in the unlikely event that they follow your device.
More generally, unless we assume the description of the Carcellan strategem is
lying, there simply is not much room in the plan for Sertorius to send large forces or forces under his personal leadership into or around the countryside around Nola. A cohort or two, but not the legion or even half of it. That's just the geometry and geography.
In my opinion the underlying narrative choice here (with lots of mechanical implications for the future, of course) is: Assault, Siege or Wait.
Wait, being the Carcellan stratagem, postpones Siege/Assault to next year. Depending on how well we/the Samnites roll over the winter our circumstances next year could be better (Samnites starving & deserting) or worse (Samnites reinforced/blocking Cohort bloodied).
For me the Carcellan stratagem is not some kind of trap option, it has drawbacks (lost initiative & time) and benefits (secure logistics over the winter) just like it's alternatives.
Oh, it's not a trap. It's a clear description of consequences:
1) It ensures the legion is safe and well-supplied, at the cost of making it considerably easier for the enemy to recover their strength.
2) IF we elect to leave blocking forces on the roads, it also exposes those blocking forces to a lot of obvious risk- but again, preserves the safety of the legion. We can't really avoid that; it's in the nature of the decision 'leave a cohort or so behind to block the roads' to expose that cohort we leave behind to risks. Especially since I doubt there are any convenient hillsides or anything that we can trigger as avalanches to block the roads.
Here are the risks I see with 'Digging In':
- If 'Outriders' fails, our strained logistics will be under constant harassment.
- This plan fails to secure a local food supply. Even without rebel activity supply shipments can get cut off/significantly reduced by snow and harsh weather.
- If A Matter of Allies fails and the supply situation gets bad, the Hipirni might just go home (or worse...).
Not saying that some of these wouldn't be bothersome under the Carcellan stratagem as well, but wintering in Beneventum negates alot of the more existential risks to this campaign.
My point is,
THAT is the argument for the Carcellan strategem: it reduces existential risk to the legion. If things go poorly for us this turn we will in all likelihood have at least a turn or two before things get really bad (one turn in a few weeks after harvest, another as winter really sets in). But it's true that if we have repeated bad turns, the situation under the Pompolussan strategem could get pretty bad, potentially.
It parallels the situation we were in at Bovianum in some ways: we'll have to take turns and steps to pacify the surrounding countryside and procure/secure food shipments, and work to keep the supply line open, through the upcoming winter.
To be honest I actually agree with you that Plan 'Digging In' has a higher chance of success, but what stops me from voting for it are its much higher costs in case of failure. I don't wanna be blamed, if we have to break off the siege during the winter because our legion is starving and the Hipirni abandoned us.
We might actually be better off sending the Hirpini home for the winter. Now that the legion is reunited, we really don't need that extra manpower just to
maintain the siege. And frankly, it would simplify our supply problems quite a bit.
I'd much rather sit in Beneventum and be angry about the fact that Meddix has managed to strengthen his position over the winter.
I'm fine with this, what I object to is the representation of the "detach a cohort or so to block the roads around Nola" plan as anything other than a major risk to the detachments we release. No amount of 'but scouts!' or 'but Sertorius is smart!' will negate the reality that small detachments of your army much closer to the enemy than to yourself will
always be in greater danger.
If everything goes well, then Plan 'Digging In' will end this campaign over the winter by starving the Samnites our. Then again IF everything went well with Carcellan, then the looser siege around Nola could lead to many warriors abandoning Meddix. Who knows? (The QM, obiviously
)
I think that the "lots of Meddix's men desert" outcome is far, far disproportionately 'lucky' than te "Plan Pompolussa gradually grinds up the enemy's strength. Plese don't equate them in that exact way. One is the plan working as foreseen and specifically intended by its designers, the other is a purely speculative possible benefit that is only going to happen if Meddix's army has very poor morale, something we have no specific reason to expect.
We're in agreement that there are no trap options, but I do wish to address the reasoning behind several of your statements.
Plan Digging In relies on starving Medix out, or forcing Medix to engage on our terms. Thing is, our supply lines are already relatively secure assuming Beneventum is relatively close, while we cut off Nola's supply lines. Outriders isn't to secure our supplies, but to further deny Medix's.
Honestly, it's both. Beneventum is twenty miles away, closer than it was for us at Bovianum, but as we saw before, guerillas can certainly attack a twenty-mile supply line. "Outriders" is very much important for the success of the Pompolussan strategem, simply because it reduces the threat of guerilla activity in our rear and on our supply line.
This is probably where we simply differ in risk aversion and will just have to agree to disagree. I don't have a big problem with Plan Digging In winning, if the majority wants to risk it.
Again, this is the part of the plan difference I respect. I
agree that the Carcellan strategem is lower-risk, in the sense of less likelihood of Bad Stuff happening to the legion. My concerns are one, that the subvote option means greater risk of Bad Stuff happening to the isolated detachments we're dangling out under Meddix's nose... And two, that by disengaging from the Samnites entirely, we expose ourselves to greater risks in the spring. Time to operate freely, or even close to freely, in the middle of Samnium is almost certainly going to do more for Meddix than for us.
Just to explain my reasoning:
Narratively we have pacified large parts of Samnium. Any Pentri or Hipirni among Meddix's army might be tempted to return home. I doubt they could simply slip out without being enslaved, if the city was besieged.
I will admit there is a risk that Meddix will be reinforced, but I don't see the big problem with that:
Right now it stands 4500 to 8000, I personally doubt he could make up the difference with reinforcements.
If he can flip the Hirpini, which is a distinct possibility, then he would enjoy an overwhelming numerical advantage over us with even slight reinforcement. Moreover, reinforcements for Meddix are likely to come from the local surrounding area, which means they're likely to come from places in a good position to smuggle food into Nola and prolong its resistance.
Every Samnite warrior that joins him in Nola is one less for us to worry about on the outside and one more mouth to feed for Meddix.
By the same token, a gap in the siege during the winter also lets Meddix smuggle noncombatants
OUT of the city and into the countryside, which may prolong his capacity for resistance.
Next year we will have a whole year to besiege Nola, and I think the additional time will be more useful to us than the any reinforcements Meddix might gain over the winter.
We still have a whole year to besiege Nola under the Pompolussan strategem. It's not like we're going to have to turn round and go away in April or whatever.
Also to all those that keep saying: "Defeat in detail". We send out one cohort of 480 fighting men split into multiple centuries. Worst case is we lose a whole century(80 men) to an unscouted sally before Sertorius probably calls off the whole operation. Even in the absolut worst case the balance of power in the region wouldn't change just because of that subvote.
A real defeat in detail could happen under this...
If our cohort is split up into centuries, Meddix can send multiple 500-man columns out along all the roads out of Nola and hit all of them at once.
It wouldn't be a defeat in detail for the whole legion, that's not really in the cards. But what it comes down to is that
nothing less than the whole legion (or half the legion plus a big auxiliary force) is strong enough to keep the Samnites bottled up in Nola without risking getting pasted. Especially not with Meddix commanding the Samnites and some underling of Sertorius commanding the Romans.
We're still risking the detachments, and they're still vulnerable under any circumstance where their presence annoys the Samnites significantly.