Puella Magi Systema Fractus, or A Practical Guide To Fixing Everything (PMAS/APGTE)

[blast flame]

Not really; having more people than the number of plot trinkets (be they transformation devices, magic swords, enchanted rings, or whatever) would leave one or more members without them and thus more vulnerable to whatever nastiness is on the other side. That would make them vulnerable as both weak links to be targeted, and because they don't have whatever benefit the plot device would give them.

Click to shrink...

So what I'm taking from this is that we're going to become ponies and befriend twilight sparkle in a world where she never meets the rest of the mane 6 and then become the elements of harmony with her.

 

[Onmur]

Revised plan: Us, Mami, Oriko, Kirika, Niko

Reasoning:
I think we need Sabs for this to be a proper PMAS quest
Sabs needs her Mumi
We need to have someone manage Mitakihara. But leaving Homura to do it alone would be a massive dick move. So she gets overpowered Sayaka.
We can't leave Oriko in the city without Homura potentially thinking it's a weird plan for Oriko to take over.
If we bring Oriko we need to bring Kirika.
Sciencebuddy to science the new world with us.

We just inform Niko of the situation to get her take on it. Hopefully this gets her curiosity flowing and she asks to come along of her own free will. If she's asking to go then convincing Kazumi to let her shouldn't be too hard.

Click to shrink...

I think I can go for this team composition.

So... more IC justifications we could use to convince IC people:

Taking O&K with us lets O&K out of the house, and gets them out of Homu's hair. Homura already let us bring O&K along when we went to Asunaro...

And if it's a trap, supposedly Oriko wouldn't want to walk into it.

Niko... I guess she might want to examine and experience this new thing, but would she want to leave her laboratory for almost a month? And her Kazumi?

Hng... I'm kind of not super sure. But a point for Niko over, say, Sayaka, would be that at least she could see the rest of the group from an outsiderish perspective while still belonging, I think. Sayaka would probably spend quite some time clashing with O&K, and I'm not sure how long until that gets old.

Mami also doesn't trust O&K, so it would be nice to bring in someone who doesn't really have a problem with them...

Not really; having more people than the number of plot trinkets (be they transformation devices, magic swords, enchanted rings, or whatever) would leave one or more members without them and thus more vulnerable to whatever nastiness is on the other side. That would make them vulnerable as both weak links to be targeted, and because they don't have whatever benefit the plot device would give them.

Click to shrink...

I... think, I'm reading, this as:

But no, Oriko said it increased for everyone, suggesting that it was the likelihood of a person surviving, not just the result of someone dying and affecting the overall data.

Click to shrink...

"Having more than 5 people increases the individual chance of each character dying."

But I'm not sure?

@Lord Chungus?

 

[NSMS]

One thing we might want to bear in mind is responsibilities that other people have; taking Sayaka, for example, would mean she'd vanish for however long we're away and scare her parents to death. Something that isn't an issue for characters like Oriko.

 

[Raiseth]

[Q] Sabrina, Mumi, Homumom, Momdoka and Seykuu, ex-waifu
Team Family Trip~

 

[Lord Chungus]

I... think, I'm reading, this as:

"Having more than 5 people increases the individual chance of each character dying."

But I'm not sure?

@Lord Chungus?

Click to shrink...

Think of it like this: If you bring 5 people, each one has, say, a 95% chance of survival. But if you bring 6 people, then each of them has an 85% chance of survival.

Also:

Niko... I guess she might want to examine and experience this new thing, but would she want to leave her laboratory for almost a month? And her Kazumi?

Click to shrink...

In PMAS, it is currently Wedsnday evening Thursday morning. The Souju sisters are expected to arrive next Monday, and Walpurgisnacht in about two weeks. You won't be gone for a month.

Edit: Forgot that PMSF is a day later. It's Thursday morning, not Wedsnday evening.

 

[Onmur]

In PMAS, it is currently Wednesday evening. The Souju sisters are expected to arrive next Monday, and Walpurgisnacht in about two weeks. You won't be gone for a month.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, sometimes time flies, doesn't it?

Think of it like this: If you bring 5 people, each one has, say, a 95% chance of survival. But if you bring 6 people, then each of them has an 85% chance of survival.

Click to shrink...

So I'm taking that their are individual chances. So I'm guessing it's not power trinkets.

BTW using these numbers we can calculate the exact odds of survival for the whole team [/takingthecommenttooseriously]

 

[blast flame]

One thing we might want to bear in mind is responsibilities that other people have; taking Sayaka, for example, would mean she'd vanish for however long we're away and scare her parents to death. Something that isn't an issue for characters like Oriko.

Click to shrink...

Time for Mami's uncle she's never mentioned before in Europe to die to death. It's really important for her to visit him or something.

 

[Raiseth]

BTW using these numbers we can calculate the exact odds of survival for the whole team [/takingthecommenttooseriously]

Click to shrink...

Mathematically speaking, 77.4 chance of survival for everyone in case of five
47.1 in case of six.
Yep, statistics are a cold and uncaring Grim Reaper.

 

[Redshirt Army]

From a purely "fuck logic, gib characters" standpoint, I'd like Sabrina, Mami, Sayaka, Homura, and Oriko+Kirika.

Chungus's Sayaka/Homura interactions are hilarious, and I'd like to see the sparks fly with that. The Oriko interactions might be similarly amusing, and Homura's horror at agreeing with Sayaka should be amusing.

But Homu won't go without Madoka, and I'll always have "but what do Madoka's parents think" in the back of my mind, so, bleh.

 

[Onmur]

Hm...

Kirika is struggling to hold Oriko's arms to her side, though the free arm scratching at her own face is a good indicator of why. You step over shards of ceramic, moving closer and closer to the scene unfolding.

Click to shrink...

[] Check if Oriko's injured. Heal if so.
-[] Eye contact. Ask if there's anything else she still hasn't mentioned.

[] Call Sayaka. Get her here and up to speed.

[] Ask Oriko:
-[] What she thinks we should do.
-[] If she wants to come along.

[] Convince others:
-[] You know Oriko better than you have any right to (metaknowledge). You know what she wants, beyond all. If anything can shake her this bad... you believe her.
-[] Insert Madokaism. If this Barrier does appear, Oriko hardly could have caused it. Maybe this is a chance.

[] Team composition?:
-[] Mami, Sabrina, Kirika, Oriko.
--[] And Niko.
--[] And Sayaka.

[] Arrange for your absence.
-[] Leave some Clear Seeds.
-[] Invite Kyouko and Yuma to help out in taking care of Mitakihara (fortunately, Kyouko owes us right now).
-[] Inform everyone trustworthy, including Saito and Akemi, Masami and Hiroko, Nadia...


Sooo... Oriko? I know what she is, but if she can tell us with a straight face she's being honest, or something along those lines, I believe her. Partly because story premise, but hey, metaknowledge. Actually, can we claim metaknowledge as a reason why we should trust Oriko and go?

Also, I guess we really need to think how to 'arrange for our absence'. What else do we need to do?

 

[Onmur]

So...

no matter who goes in or what happens inside, you will always exit the barrier minutes before whatever great threat descends upon Mitakihara city, be it Walpurgisnacht, the Soujus, or anything else."

Click to shrink...

No matter how many of your group are dead, you always want to go back. I do not see you explain why, only state that the opportunity must be taken."

Click to shrink...

What happens is that we're coming back to Mitakihara before each potential disaster, averting it, then going back into crossover land?

Mathematically speaking, 77.4 chance of survival for everyone in case of five
47.1 in case of six.
Yep, statistics are a cold and uncaring Grim Reaper.

Click to shrink...

Now you made me do this:

For the case of five people with 95% chance of survival per individual, I have calculated:

0,0000313% chance of total party wipe.
0,00297% chance of four death.
0,113% chance of three deaths.
2,14% chance of two deaths.
20,4% chance of one death.
77,4% chance of no deaths.

4,75 Expected value of survivors.
0,2375 Variance.
0,49 Deviation.

X: (4,26 ; 5,24)

With this data, I can say the expectation is that all five members survive, but there's a chance some will partly die and that we will get back home with a quarter of a new person.

X: (4 ; 5)

With this data, I can say there's a higher chance that everyone will survive than that anyone would die, but it wouldn't be so weird if anyone died.


Look what you made me do, Raiseth.

I'm sorry, Lord Chungus.

Should I proceed with the data of 6 party members with 85% individual chance of death?

 

[Jiven]

Yep, proceed. I like statistics.

 

[blast flame]

If we assume that each level of deviation from 5 decrease the individual odds of survival by 10% (eg so 4 or 6 has 85%, 3 or 7 has 75%, 2 or 8 has 65%, 1 or 9 has 55%) then the best odds of no one dying other than the perfect group of 5 is literally Sabrina Leroy Jenkening it by herself alone.

 

[Lord Chungus]

Guys stahp.
Guys no I can't into statistics.

 

[AuraTwilight]

From a purely "fuck logic, gib characters" standpoint, I'd like Sabrina, Mami, Sayaka, Homura, and Oriko+Kirika.

Chungus's Sayaka/Homura interactions are hilarious, and I'd like to see the sparks fly with that. The Oriko interactions might be similarly amusing, and Homura's horror at agreeing with Sayaka should be amusing.

But Homu won't go without Madoka, and I'll always have "but what do Madoka's parents think" in the back of my mind, so, bleh.

Click to shrink...

Also if we even suggest taking Madoka into the Unknown Death Dimension Suggested by Oriko we're going to be shot eighteen times in the face.

 

[Onmur]

Yep, proceed. I like statistics.

Click to shrink...

My apologies, but Lord Chungus would prefer me not to continue.



Meanwhile, votewise... I'm having trouble giving a firm non-meta argument why this wouldn't be an Oriko plot, that could convince Homura, if she needed convincing... Because this totally would be an Oriko plot if Oriko felt like it.


@Lord Chungus, would you prefer shorter votes, or is this length of vote OK?

EDITED:

[X] Check if Oriko's injured. Heal if so.
-[X] Eye contact. Ask if there's anything else she still hasn't mentioned.

[X] Call Sayaka. Get her here and up to speed.

[X] Ask Oriko:
-[X] After her powers. Working again or just... this?
-[X] Her opinion. What she thinks we should do.
-[X] Then, if she wants to come along.
--[X] Expect her to make you convince her, even if she actually wants to.

[X] Convince others to trust Oriko:
-[X] What Oriko's describing is beyond her abilities.
-[X] She's been confined.
-[X] She hasn't led you astray since her imprisonment.
--[X] If anything can shake her this bad, you believe her.

[X] Team composition?:
-[X] Mami, Sabrina, Kirika, Oriko and either...
--[X] ... Niko. Closest to an expert in magic research you know. No offense to Mami.
--[X] ... Sayaka. (Praise your Kouhai).

[X] Arrange for your absence.
-[X] Leave some Clear Seeds.
-[X] Inform everyone trustworthy, including Saito and Akemi, Masami and Hiroko, Nadia...
-[X] Kyouko and Yuma: Ask them to help take care of Mitakihara.

 

[Onmur]

Also if we even suggest taking Madoka into the Unknown Death Dimension Suggested by Oriko we're going to be shot eighteen times in the face.

Click to shrink...

(This is purely )

Ah, but we can argue that once we're there it wouldn't be the Unknown Death Dimension anymore, but the Knowin Death Dim-

-​

Click.

No. Other. Sound.

No color.

No movement.

Only that gun pressing against your forehead, which coincidentally is the only thing keeping you in timestop.

"... Sabrina."

"I went way over the line there. Madoka's life is not something to joke about. I'm sorry, mom."

"..."

"I mean-"

-​

Suddenly the gun isn't on your face anymore, instead... a nice feeling on your head? Is... Homura ruffling your hair?

"I guess this works to my advantadge," she mutters, stopping the gesture and holding your shoulder instead. "Just don't get used to it."

You can't help a goofy grin.

"Yes Ma'am!"

-​

Time resumes.

Nobody notices a single thing.

Except Mami, of course. She's giving you that look.

 

[veekie]

Yuma is a free add huh?

 

[Onmur]

Yuma is a free add huh?

Click to shrink...

If we bring Kyouko.

 

[WorldSlayer]

[X] Ask Oriko more questions.
-[X] Are your powers back in general or is it just this?
-[X] Ask more about sub-groups. Does [Sabrina, Mami], [Kirika, Oriko], [Homura, Madoka], Sayaka, [Kyouko, Yuma] count as 5?
-[X] Ask for more information about what we say on our return.
-[X] Try to set up a group with 100% success chance. See if learning more about what you say on your return trips can increase success chance.


Mami, Sabrina, Kirika, Oriko all seem like good choices. Kirika and Oriko are pretty much guaranteed really since we need to drag them along to prove it's not a weird trap.

Kyouko seems like a decent choice to bring the numbers up to 5, possibly with Yuma along. We could also recruit outside girls for the final choice.

Homura would be the best choice of course but convincing Homura will be difficult and probably impossible without also bringing Madoka.

Maybe [Sabrina, Mami], [Kirika, Oriko], [Homura, Madoka], Sayaka, [Kyouko, Yuma] for a total of 5. The real advantage of this is that it makes it so that a new crisis forming is going to happen more readily thus bringing everyone back sooner. If there are no magical girls looking after the city then that means simply having some new magical girls rock up to find Sabrina not there will constitute a crisis which we'd need to come back to fix.

Edit: I've added some more questions to ask Oriko, Honestly the fact that Oriko's power works here is so hax, we can just change team composition and ask questions until we get something that Oriko says will have 100% success and walk in already knowing everything we need to.

 

[Raiseth]

[Q] Homura, Madoka, Sayaka, Kyouko, Mami Nagisa
Team Madoka Dating Simulator

 

[Laurelin]

So I'm gonna go ahead and guess that this is a Hyperdimension Neptunia crossover. Feel free to mock me when I'm wrong.

Click to shrink...

Mock you? Bro, if it turns out you're wrong I'll join you in weeping in regret and buy us a drink to drown our sorrows! I love me some Neps.

 

[kinigget]

I'll...watch for now. Don't really have a clear idea of who I'd bring

 

[Sentient Tree]

My apologies, but Lord Chungus would prefer me not to continue.



Meanwhile, votewise... I'm having trouble giving a firm non-meta argument why this wouldn't be an Oriko plot, that could convince Homura, if she needed convincing... Because this totally would be an Oriko plot if Oriko felt like it.


@Lord Chungus, would you prefer shorter votes, or is this length of vote OK?


[X] Check if Oriko's injured. Heal if so.
-[X] Eye contact. Ask if there's anything else she still hasn't mentioned.

[X] Call Sayaka. Get her here and up to speed.

[X] Ask Oriko:
-[X] Her opinion. What she thinks we should do.
-[X] Then, if she wants to come along.
--[X] Expect her to make you convince her, even if she actually wants to.

[X] Convince others to trust Oriko:
-[X] What Oriko's describing is beyond her abilities.
-[X] She's been confined.
-[X] She hasn't led you astray since her imprisonment.
--[X] If anything can shake her this bad, you believe her.


[X] Team composition?:
-[X] Mami, Sabrina, Kirika, Oriko...
--[X] ... And Niko. Closest to an expert in magic research you know. No offense to Mami.
--[X] ... And Sayaka. (Praise your Kouhai).

[X] Arrange for your absence.
-[X] Leave some Clear Seeds.
-[X] Inform everyone trustworthy, including Saito and Akemi, Masami and Hiroko, Nadia...
-[X] Kyouko and Yuma: Ask them to help take care of Mitakihara.

Click to shrink...

Isn't that 6 people?

Also, we should precommit to debriefing Oriko anyway once we're out of the barrier, so that we have the advantage of knowing the highlights of anything important. Oriko can be like "Uh huh, yes, I remember the blue eyed frogs. Yes Sabrina, I was literally right beside you when they tried to eat Sayaka."
That way we don't have to lose out on precog due to taking the seer with us.

 

[blast flame]

Isn't that 6 people?

Also, we should precommit to debriefing Oriko anyway once we're out of the barrier, so that we have the advantage of knowing the highlights of anything important. Oriko can be like "Uh huh, yes, I remember the blue eyed frogs. Yes Sabrina, I was literally right beside you when they tried to eat Sayaka."
That way we don't have to lose out on precog due to taking the seer with us.

Click to shrink...

I think it's Sayaka or Niko not Sayaka and Niko. Depending on whether we can get Niko to agree maybe?

Also we should debrief Homu (and Sayaka if we don't take her) when we get back anyway. Just make sure Oriko is next to us when we do it.