Lest the World Perish: A Timeline of the Near-Apocalypse

Chapter 6.1 - We Chant A Song
Excerpt from The Unbowed Dragon: A Retrospective on Antebellum China, 1976-2035

"To understand the events of the summer of 2021, one must be informed of the dirty secret of China's rapid growth: that it was built on the backs of hundreds of millions of disadvantaged workers. When China began its process of modernization, millions of rural farmers from the interior provinces migrated to the cities for employment in the many factories and enterprises that were blossoming as a result of Premier Deng's reforms. However, they were shackled by a system that also ensured they made the perfect low-cost laborers. The hukou household registration system, which tied each Chinese household to a home province, had been in existence since the Qing dynasty, and it was one of the few policies not abolished by the Communist revolutionaries who seized power in China following the Second World War. In its modern form, the hukou mandated that an individual could only gain access to social services such as healthcare or education at their home province, and those who migrated to a different province would lose those benefits. The urban migrants who would form the core of China's industrial labor force were thus systematically discriminated against, and this precarity is what made them such attractive employees to the new urban industries, for they were willing to work for low wages and few benefits.

As the decades passed, the initial stream of migrants turned into a flood, and by the new tens about 40% of the population of major urban areas was composed of them. Thus, the cities were filled with a permanent underclass, the foundation of China's industrial economy. The Chinese Communist Party leadership accepted this, for they could point both to China's rapid growth and original Marxist theory, which stated that an underdeveloped rural nation had to go through a period of capitalist accumulation before socialism could be built. And the migrants accepted these conditions with few complaints, for they still held hope that they could somehow provide for their families and grant them an opportunity to make a better life for themselves. However, as time progressed, the migrants became just as much of a burden on China as an economic benefit, for the dependence on migrant labor hindered the transition to a high-skilled, high-income knowledge economy. A few Party members noticed this and attempted to enact reforms, but they were too little and too late.

However, the migrants would face even worse hardships at the turn of the decade, for China would be battered by both a global pandemic in the year 2020 and the Ping'an Crisis in 2021. Both times, it was the migrants who suffered the most, for these crises forced employers to lay off millions in order to stay afloat. The migrants were left for months without any support, pushing many into poverty. Eventually, in June of 2021, these conditions would finally result in China's long-forgotten underclass to finally make themselves heard.

And it would shake the nation to its core."



June 16th, 2021
Beijing


It had been two months since Yun had lost his job at the construction company he had worked at for years. He didn't understand what had happened - some of his colleagues kept mentioning that something had gone very wrong with the company's debt, and it could no longer afford to keep him on the payroll. Or at least, that's what they said. Yun knew that he had been building nothing but empty houses and abandoned apartments, a symbol of waste and mismanagement. Now, the chickens had come home to roost

He had put up with living in a shoddy tenement, fearing for illness due to the registration that barred him from receiving healthcare in Beijing, and staying at home for months instead of working last year because of that new virus. He had done all of this, just so his wife and daughters in Xi'an could put food on the table, and make something more of themselves. But now, with him facing eviction in a few days, he had realized that he had nothing more to live for, and nothing more to look forward to. However, Yun had resolved not to go quietly. Some of his former colleagues and other migrants in his neighborhood had threatened to take to the streets tomorrow, to march not for freedom, but for bread. He would join them, and together, they would bring the entire city to a halt. The new China had built itself up on the backs of men like him, all while the Party pretended they did not exist. Now, the migrants would send a message that could not be ignored.
 
In other news, Barron's has done an analysis and apparently China has actually been in a year-long recession, with the official GDP numbers only portraying an economic recovery because the GDP numbers for the previous year was revised using dubious methods:

Article:
That said, official economic statistics are routinely revised. So why should revisions by China be treated skeptically?

First, the methods of China's National Bureau of Statistics have long been questionable. A central problem is a practice by which firms surveyed in a given year are dropped in future years if their revenue falls below a certain threshold. Their prior data is then stripped out of historical records. This cherry-picking approach can produce trillions of yuan worth of adjustments. The resulting figures are no longer representative of the entire economy.

Second, transparency is lacking. The NBS did not provide a meaningful explanation of why numbers for FAI or total retail sales were adjusted down for 2019, nor did it publish a revised series openly acknowledging the revisions. Third, and relatedly, the bureau has now removed all nominal FAI data for 2019 and 2020 from its online database, making it cumbersome for analysts to decode these changes in the first place. It's difficult but to conclude that these revisions are aimed at distorting reality rather than giving a more accurate read on the economy.
 
Next part where? Man, kind of actually wanting this timeline to happen actually in a way. Hey, gonna cover famous people and pop-culture in here too?

BTW, watched : )
 
Next part where? Man, kind of actually wanting this timeline to happen actually in a way. Hey, gonna cover famous people and pop-culture in here too?

BTW, watched : )

Working on it this afternoon. Unfortunately, I'm not going to cover pop culture all that much because it's just going to take space away from the actual story and I'm not really that interested in talking about it. Perhaps somebody could write their own omakes if they're really interested and I could look it over.
 
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Working on it this afternoon. Unfortunately, I'm not going to cover pop culture all that much because it's just going to take space away from the actual story and I'm not really that interested in talking about it. Perhaps somebody could write their own omakes if they're really interested and I could look it over.

Better than omakes would be requests for others to write their own side stories and culture coverings for this piece.
 
Better than omakes would be requests for others to write their own side stories and culture coverings for this piece.

Yeah, you have a point. I'll definitely be open to any volunteers who have ideas.

In other news, my obligations have forced me to delay these future updates to Sunday, but I'm going to put out more content to make up for this.
 
Chapter 6.2
June 18, 2021
Shijingshan District, Beijing


The steel foundry was seemingly devoid of all activity when Director Lin arrived. It had been closed more than a decade ago to improve the city's air quality in preparation for the 2008 Olympics, its machinery shipped off to a new factory in the interior. Normally, his traveling to such a place would have been trivial, but the escalating situation with the protests had turned Beijing upside down. The streets were packed with malcontents marching not for freedom, but for bread. The migrants had been the first to arrive, but their ranks had been quickly bolstered by throngs of youths, many of them disaffected for years about their future prospects, and some only recently having found themselves out of a home. This uprising had already brought most business in the city to a halt, but while others in the Party saw only chaos, Lin saw an opportunity.

He approached one of the foundry's many entrances, glanced backward to make sure he wasn't being followed, then carefully pried open the door before entering and closing it behind him. The interior was cramped, filled to the brim with machinery and piping, and it took the Director minutes before he found what had once been the foreman's office. Of course, he had decided to arrive at the foundry early specifically to prevent navigational issues from making him late.

The others were already there when he entered the room. Upon his arrival, they stood from their seats and turned to face him. He took the time to shake their hands, a courtesy that he would not ignore even in such abnormal circumstances. After this greeting, he moved to the center of the room, and began to speak.

"I should not have to remind you of why I have summoned you here. I am by far the highest-ranked member in this room, but in truth we are all comrades here, united by similar circumstances and a shared vision. The truth is that the protests that have enveloped the capital are merely the beginning of what will be the greatest political crisis in our Republic's history since the events of 1989..."

The others appeared uncomfortable at the mention of Tiananmen Square. Even he would have been, once.

"...and in many ways, will exceed it in magnitude. China is no longer a rural nation. The malcontents on the streets are no mere student protestors, but are ordinary laborers who have completely lost faith in the promise that our current politics can provide them a future. The Paramount Leader and the Party faction he controls has deluded himself into thinking that the Beijing uprising will be contained and easily defused. Any student of history understands how deeply they are mistaken."

He paused, gauging the reactions of the others. He could see worry, despite how they tried to mask it.

"Of course, even the most isolated official will soon come to face this new reality. When they do, the entire Party will be shaken to its core. I have already heard rumors that some of the Ministers are no longer confident in the stability of the government. Over time, the escalation of the popular crisis will also precipitate a political crisis."

He paused once again, for effect.

"Once that occurs, it will be our mission to assume leadership. Some will see this opportunistic or power-hungry, but we will accomplish this because we understand that, if the Chinese state and the proletarian revolution is to survive, a new politics is needed. One that understands that the most precious capital China possesses is the capital of human beings, and will provide much-needed investment into it."

The others nodded, as he concluded.

"The next Party Congress will be held next October. Between then and now, we will have to maneuver throughout the Party, through every Ministry, provincial government and people's assembly. The odds may be great, and we will make many enemies, but know that you will be the ones to save China."

He stepped back, the meeting adjourned. Over the next year, they would have many more in this building. Under normal circumstances, the national security apparatus would have soon apprehended them, but its attention would be on far more immediate concerns. They would move through the shadows, slowly and surely building support among the bureaucrats the Party did not usually pay attention to. A mad gamble, but a necessary one.
 
Chapter 6.3
June 21, 2021
Outskirts of Novosibirsk


Professor Shabayev walked by the lakeside, lost in thought, while a flock of ducks lazily waded in the water next to him. A picturesque scene that contrasted with the turmoil in his mind and soul. How could he be at peace when the images of upheaval, all across the world, were seared into his brain? A wise man would have advised him not to be concerned with matters that he had no power over, but his profession had consigned him to carry this burden. Still, what could he hope to do? He was nothing but a despondent academic, stuck in an ivory tower, uncertainly mulling over ideas that history had entirely written off. Sure, some of the recent uprisings had taken him surprised, but in his head, he felt that they would end up being nothing but footnotes.

Still, a thought nagged at him. It was a mad dream that went against all reason, but it found purchase in his heart, making it impossible to dislodge. For his entire life, he had been a passive observer, blown along by the tides of history? But what if he could be more than that? What if he could make his own mark on the world, to fly in the face of the powers that be? All he knew is that he could not ever be happy as long as he was cursed by knowledge.

And what would be the point of suffering in silence?

He turned to look out onto the lake. The sun was just setting, turning the horizon a gorgeous shade of orange. At that moment, the Professor was overcome by a confused mass of feelings, anger and yearning and fear and determination all in one. After it passed, the Professor turned back to the path, now with determination.

By the time he had reached home, he had made up his mind.



Journal of Emil Ilyich Shabayev
June 21, 2021


There are those who say the course of history is set in stone, and that one man can no more change it than he can swim against a raging current. Perhaps this is true, but I will no longer let myself be paralyzed.

When hundreds of thousands of my countrymen marched in the streets last January in protest against a regime that wasted tens of billions of rubles on extravagant palaces while the common people struggled to pay their bills, I dismissed it as a temporary disturbance. When the Chinese economy suffered its worst crisis in decades, I dismissed it as a cyclical downturn. When hundreds of thousands of Amazon employees finally decided that they could no longer tolerate their inhumane conditions, I dismissed it as yet another episode in the reality television program that is American politics. When a group of Communist revolutionaries in Lebanon surprised the entire world, I dismissed their work as a revolution that would end before it could even truly begin. And now, when migrants block the streets of Beijing, I was also prepared to dismiss them.

But even if all of these events will amount to nothing, I now see the potential that underlies it. And it is a potential that must be acted on.

Someone once said that once you have gained sight, it is impossible to feign blindness. That perfectly describes all of my kind: ever-frustrated and cursed with knowledge. I see a world plunged into ever-increasing crisis, and I have resolved that I can no longer stand by the sidelines. A part of my mind calls it insanity.

But to the madness of daring, I will chant a song.
 
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I deeply apologize for how long this took. For the past two weeks I've been sidetracked by binge-reading CK2 Quests and obsessing about my other interests, but I've finally managed to put that behind me. I thank you all for your patience.
 
No need to apologize. We are all humans with our own separate but interconnected lives. The fact that you are even making these windows into a separate world is good enough.
 
The final and most unfortunate consequence of the red wave would be found in European politics. For decades, those in both the traditional and the radical right had alleged that leftists and Muslims were aligned together in shared hostility towards the West. A communist revolution in the Middle East would, in their eyes, prove them right."
Uh oh? This is more of an American Fox News thing mostly: Combining Islam and Communists and LGBTQ people and Liberal Capitalist Progressivism into one mishmash insane conspiracy theory. Nowadays mostly found on the extreme US rightwing.
Our racists and fascists are at least honest by saying straight away that they hate them for :turian:being uncouth swarthy savages:turian: and do not try to find Leftist boogeyman "to connect the dots" so to speak. We 'Europoors' never really had an anti-left event of the type and scope of the US Red Scare 1 and 2. The reason the US right has to connect Islam and Communists and Liberal Progressives in one giant conspiracy is that the religious and racist parts of the US political spectrum would otherwise not get the conservative Big Business wing of the US right on board with their xenophobic policies.
 
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It's not just an American thing. France also seems to have gotten into it, and it's popular with "centrists" and establishment conservatives as well as the far-right.
Hah. Like when compared to how Fox News every single day goes out of their way to recombine and combine Liberal Progressives and Leftists and Islam and Arabs? It is more like your US problem than a European French one. Call me back when Le Pen finally wins the French Presidency, then we can talk again.
 
Hah. Like when compared to how Fox News every single day goes out of their way to recombine and combine Liberal Progressives and Leftists and Islam and Arabs? It is more like your US problem than a European French one. Call me back when Le Pen finally wins the French Presidency, then we can talk again.

I can say that she won't be winning the Presidency in LtWP's 2022 election, but that does not mean National Rally won't be irrelevant in the future of the timeline.
 
Yo

www.vice.com

Amazon Is Forcing Its Warehouse Workers Into Brutal ‘Megacycle’ Shifts

The company has been quietly transitioning warehouse workers at Amazon warehouses nationwide to a 10-hour graveyard shift, known as the “megacycle.”

Seeds for this timeline in the real world : )

Chapter 3 was directly inspired by reading about how workers were forced to work overtime during the COVID-19 pandemic because of the volume of deliveries.
 
WAT.
Why... we really seem to be going for an dystopian future do we?
 
WAT.
Why... we really seem to be going for an dystopian future do we?

Based on the 22nd century framing story, who the F knows. "Near-apocalypse" means things will get worse before better. I mean, look at the intro page; the 2042 onwards part has "Forward Unto Dawn (thanks, Halo!)" in it, meaning it could very well NOT be dystopic.

Besides, if this timeline SOMEHOW becomes reality in an amicable way, I'm down for it!
 
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