Lest the World Perish: A Timeline of the Near-Apocalypse

This is a gripping, if rather horrifying timeline. You've got yourself a watcher. I'm rather dreading what that robber baron Julian Montfort is planning.

Also, I suspect I'll hate the answer, but how much historical basis is there for the Amazon centers having THAT little regard for human life?

I don't have a specific basis. It's really just an extrapolation of the conditions they're enduring during the pandemic. The job was already hard enough, but they've had to work overtime to ship stuff to people in quarantine. It's very likely that at one point someone was going to work themselves to death but the pandemic pressures that Amazon is facing would force a manager to behave like the manager in the story did.

Oh, and for reference, Montfort is much more than a mere robber baron, but that is a twist for later.

Yeah no doubt I felt some dread from the scenario outlined in Lebanon, but that has more to do with current circumstances in the US than anything else. This seems like a pretty reasonable end point for what's going on in Lebanon and honestly I would be curious if it has impacts throughout the wider Middle East, since it seems that the Arab Winter is getting a little less... frosty nowadays.

Yes, this will have a massive impact on not just the Middle East but politics in Europe and the US.
 
This is a gripping, if rather horrifying timeline. You've got yourself a watcher. I'm rather dreading what that robber baron Julian Montfort is planning.

Also, I suspect I'll hate the answer, but how much historical basis is there for the Amazon centers having THAT little regard for human life?

There has already been cases of employees dying on the job and other employees being punished for trying to help, from what I remember.
 
There has already been cases of employees dying on the job and other employees being punished for trying to help, from what I remember.

Oh, really? Guess there is a RL basis for my story after all.

Oh, and apologies for me not getting Chapter 5 out. I'm just wrapping up a 5-day diet for my health issues that left be feeling pretty bad. I'll still update this week, but school has started so in the future I'll only be able to write more in the weekends.
 
Chapter 5.1 - To the Madness of Daring
Excerpt from "A History of the Middle East in the 21st Century"

"The Lebanese Revolution began on the first of May, a day celebrated across the world as International Labor Day, with an insurrection in Beirut that saw hostile crowds lead by members of the Lebanese Communist Party storm most government buildings in the city, taking the vast majority of politicians in the national government hostage. Similar Communist-led uprisings would occur in the next few days across Lebanon's coastal cities, most notably in the cities of Tripoli, Jounieh, and Sidon. The preceding protests had been forcibly suppressed by the army, but by May the soldiers had mutinied, refusing to fire on the people on the orders of corrupt politicians. Realizing it was in their best interest to cooperate, the Lebanese high command reluctantly aligned itself with the revolutionaries, seeing an opportunity to depose their primary rival: Hezbollah. That organization was totally blindsided by the start of the Revolution, allowing revolutionaries to capture many of its hidden weapons stockpiles in the major cities. However, Hezbollah soon began to mobilize in Lebanon's south and in the hinterlands across Lebanon's central mountain range, areas that it had long held sovereignty over. Hezbollah-aligned politicians were prominently among those who the revolutionaries wished to dispose of, and Hezbollah soon prepared to march towards the coasts and topple the revolutionary government before it could threaten Hezbollah's power..."



May 7, 2021
Beirut


Hassan Khoury made his way through the halls of the Parliament building in Beirut, a building he had long stared at from the outside, but never expected to be in. The swiftness of the army's change of heart had been a surprise, but it gave him hope that the Revolution would not be snuffed out before it could truly begin. He marched through a door and found himself staring out into a courtyard, with the other members of his Revolutionary Tribunal present. The provisional government had tasked him with bringing the worst of the criminals who once ran the country to justice, and he would see it done. His comrades rose, saluting him as he walked up to inspect those on trial. Four powerful individuals connected with Hezbollah, a businessman, two port authority officials, and an MP, who had been responsible for illegally trafficking hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate through the Port of Beirut, an action that had eventually lead to the blast that destroyed it. Four powerful individuals who had been caught attempting to flee to the hinterlands, carrying government documents and a briefcase filled with gold bullion with them. They had believed that they could escape justice, but Hassan would make them pay the price for their treachery.

Before he began, Hassan signaled to a cameraman on the side, who began streaming the proceedings, a feed that would find itself on every television set in Lebanon. He called the Tribunal to order, dispensing with most of the formalities and presenting the case against the defendants. He charged them with criminal conspiracy against Lebanon, of embezzlement and corruption, and of threatening the revolution. He and his assistants presented the evidence against the defendants, in front of the entire country, proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the men were guilty. Then, while hundreds of thousands watched, he presented the verdict.

"For the crimes enumerated, the Revolutionary Tribunal sentences you to death. Comrades, at the ready!"

Hassan's assistants raised their rifles, aiming them at the defendants. The MP swore and spat.

"You communist bastards will never take Lebanon! My brothers will kill you all! Yo-"

"Fire!," shouted Hassan, and many cracks rang out through the courtyard. A second later, the four prisoners dropped to the ground, dead. Hassan sighed. He did not know how many more such trials would be required to avenge the people, but he would do his duty. The assistants were starting to clean up the bloodstains from the floor when an officer barged in, summoning Hassan for an urgent meeting in the Parliament building. Hassan raced back through the halls of Parliament, until he burst through a double door to find himself in an office, where other higher-ups of the provisional government were gathered. Upon his entry, one of them briefed him hurriedly, his voice giving away his anxiety.

"Comrade Khoury, the situation in the mountains has escalated. Hezbollah's forces have entered Nabayite and Zahlé, and the army believes that they will arrive in Sidon within the week. In addition, the army has reported multiple engagements with-"

The officer's words were cut short when a tremendous crack that shook the ground went off in a nearby building. A few seconds later, another explosion rang out further away, and Hassan ran outside to figure out what was happening. They found that a large hole had been carved into the Ministry of Finance, and a nearby apartment had also been impacted. Then, Hassan spotted a streak crash into the street, blasting a crater with a gout of flame.

"Cruise missiles!," shouted Hassan as the men dove for cover. The next few minutes saw more missiles impact building across Beirut, a few far enough away to be felt only as a distant crash, while others hit close enough to make the entire block shake. The barrage was powerful enough to cause the damaged apartment to collapse, covering the neighborhood in a cloud of debris. When it was over, Hassan emerged, coughing as he held his bandanna to his mouth. It took them a few more minutes before they felt they could return to the meeting space, and entered covered in dust. The men looked at each other before Hassan spoke.

"Hezbollah threatens to destroy us all, and from what I understand, the Lebanese Army will not be able to fend off an all-out attack from them. Under these circumstances, we must begin a total mobilization. By our estimation, we have captured one hundred cruise missiles, ten thousand rockets, and sixty thousand rifles from Hezbollah's caches in the cities. I want the rockets transferred to the army, to launch retaliatory strikes on Hezbollah's territory. I also want to recruit around fifty thousand volunteers to supplement the Army's soldiers. This way, we can give Hezbollah a taste of their own medicine."

"Where will you be heading, Comrade Khoury?," asked one of the men.

"I will be heading to the South to accompany the Army. Perhaps even engage the enemy directly. I have faith in all of you and faith in the Revolution. Now let us go quickly, there is no time to waste!," replied Hassan.
 
Chapter 5.2
Excerpt from "A History of the Middle East in the 21st Century"

"...the initial engagements between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army went poorly for the latter. The Army was rife with sectarian division, poorly equipped, poorly trained, and poorly lead. Meanwhile, Hezbollah had tens of thousands of motivated fighters among its ranks, who had received extensive training in guerilla tactics and indirect warfare meant to frustrate a conventional army, and also possessed a large arsenal of cruise missiles and rockets that inflicted serious damage to the Army. However, Hezbollah encountered unexpected difficulties in its attempted march to the sea, as much of its Shia support base had turned against it due to its association with the former government. In addition, the revolutionaries mobilized the population in areas under their control and made extensive use of the missiles they had captured, bombarding Hezbollah-controlled towns as retaliation for Hezbollah's initial missile strikes. By the twentieth of May, tens of thousands of Communist Party partisans had arrived at the frontlines to reinforce the Army, defending Sidon and halting Hezbollah's advance through the mountains. The population of Lebanon now geared up for a long, brutal war that might have taken years to end had it not been for a timely intervention..."



May 28, 2021
Israeli Defense Force Headquarters, Tel Aviv


The meeting had already began when Major General Joachim Krautman of IDF's Northern Command burst through the doors and made his way to his seat while the rest of the General Staff turned to the newcomer.

"Late as usual, I see," muttered one of his colleagues.

"That's because I have been working very hard to resolv-"

"Enough!," shouted the Chief of Staff. "We are not here to argue about work ethic!"

The room sat in silence for a few moments before he continued.

"The Minister of Defense has signaled that the Prime Minister is considering a direct intervention into the Lebanon Revolution. He believes, and I quote, that the conflict poses the greatest threat to Israeli security since the original Lebanese Civil War."

"However," continued the Chief, "me and some of my colleagues have expressed concerns over the repercussions of an invasion. Such an action would no doubt destabilize Syria even further and send hundreds of thousands of refugees from Lebanon to the rest of the Middle East or even Europe, and there are concerns that partisans ma-"

"To hell with this!," shouted Krautman, slamming his fist on the table as he rose. "The civilian government is correct, we have no other choice but to invade!"

"General Krautman-," responded the Chief in a concerned and irritated tone.

"Do you understand the threat we are facing with? Whether they be Hezbollah or actual communists, both of the warring factions in Lebanon are deeply hostile to the existence of a Jewish State! If we let this conflict continue for any longer, the Middle East will be flooded with radicals, and the victor will transform Lebanon into a base of operations from which to launch indiscriminate terror attacks against Israel! Do you not remember how the radical Marxists in the PLO tried to foment revolution in Lebanon in the sixties for precisely this reason? We must act decisively!"

He sat back down, while the rest of the Staff looked on in shocked silence. Some of them wanted to respond, but found themselves bereft of voice. The meeting would continue, more subdued, and by the time the Minister of Defense officially sanctioned an invasion a few hours later, the Staff would not contest it. General Krautman was sent to the front, to command the tip of the spear in the operation.

The partisans would not see what hit them.
 
By the way, where do you get the ammonia nitrate thing as being a Hezbollah op? I think it's pretty well settled that it was just cargo that was seized from an unrelated ship and never disposed of properly by the port authorities.
 
By the way, where do you get the ammonia nitrate thing as being a Hezbollah op? I think it's pretty well settled that it was just cargo that was seized from an unrelated ship and never disposed of properly by the port authorities.

That was inspired by a suggestion that only a small fraction of the original cargo had detonated and the rest had been removed. After doing some research now I discovered that that hypothesis was incorrect, and will be editing the story accordingly.
 
That was inspired by a suggestion that only a small fraction of the original cargo had detonated and the rest had been removed. After doing some research now I discovered that that hypothesis was incorrect, and will be editing the story accordingly.

On the other hand, I could totally buy a chunk of the population believing it.

One thing to remember about Hezbollah is that it may have become establishment due to inclusion in government, but it's still very involved in trying to provide for people in the areas it controls compared to a lot of the political forces in Lebanon, hence the loyalty it tend to inspire in the poorer Shia population.
 
On the other hand, I could totally buy a chunk of the population believing it.

One thing to remember about Hezbollah is that it may have become establishment due to inclusion in government, but it's still very involved in trying to provide for people in the areas it controls compared to a lot of the political forces in Lebanon, hence the loyalty it tend to inspire in the poorer Shia population.

Right, but since the blast a lot of people in the cities have been blaming them for the corruption. Again, in the timeline the country is still divided between the revolutionary coast and the pro-Hezbollah hinterlands. Normally Hezbollah would definitely have the upper hand in a conflict against the Lebanese Army, but the fact that there's been a popular revolution and some of their weapons caches in the cities were captured changes the odds a bit.
 
Interesting start! This looks well researched and interesting. I wonder what Israel will get itself into, do they really have the stomach for another Lebanon War?
 
Interesting start! This looks well researched and interesting. I wonder what Israel will get itself into, do they really have the stomach for another Lebanon War?

It's important to remember that Israel is catching the warring factions unaware. Normally Hezbollah would have rapidly mobilized against Israel but since their forces are already tied up and they've already used some of their arsenal against the revolutionaries they won't be able to respond nearly as well. And for Israel's plans, let's just say that they want to ensure that there won't be a fourth invasion.
 
Well the issue for Israel is that they don't have a side to take and help along. And anything they touch in Lebanon will be poison. They have the conventional forces to win but the Lebanese will make them pay for it in asymmetric warfare.
 
Well the issue for Israel is that they don't have a side to take and help along. And anything they touch in Lebanon will be poison. They have the conventional forces to win but the Lebanese will make them pay for it in asymmetric warfare.

Yes, that's precisely the issue. I don't think it's too much of a spoiler to say that Israel is going to begin an indefinite occupation of Lebanon because of how unstable the country will be, and because they don't want to leave only to have to return years later. This will have a major impact on Middle Eastern politics, because previously Israel was content to stay close to its claimed territory.
 
Yes, that's precisely the issue. I don't think it's too much of a spoiler to say that Israel is going to begin an indefinite occupation of Lebanon because of how unstable the country will be, and because they don't want to leave only to have to return years later. This will have a major impact on Middle Eastern politics, because previously Israel was content to stay close to its claimed territory.

What is Iran up to? Probably bankrolling Hezbollah I imagine?

I wonder what other impacts the revival of the Lebanese communists will have on the region. I've heard some things about communists in other ME countries, there's potential there.
 
What is Iran up to? Probably bankrolling Hezbollah I imagine?

I wonder what other impacts the revival of the Lebanese communists will have on the region. I've heard some things about communists in other ME countries, there's potential there.

As a matter of fact, the last part of this chapter will have a blurb on that. And Iran might come up in the next few years in-timeline.
 
Chapter 5.3
June 3, 2021
Outskirts of Jezzine


Hassan kept his eye on the cliff as the convoy travelled through the treacherous roads leading to the town of Jezzine. The settlement was renowned as one of the most beautiful places in Lebanon, built on top of a verdant mesa overlooking a steep, crescent-shaped cliff with a clear waterfall at the center of it. Normally, tourists from all over the world would come during the summer months to enjoy the scenery and the surprisingly mild climate. Even now, at the start of June, the heat was not nearly as oppressive as it would be in the hinterlands, and Hassan carried his equipment without much discomfort.

As they approached the town, Hassan felt tense. He half expected a rocket to come from the sky and wipe him and the convoy from the face of the Earth, but the hills remained silent, as ever. The APC next to him stopped, the commander having given the order to halt and scout out the town before advancing. Hassan followed a soldier to a nearby hill and observed Jezzine. It appeared abandoned, the streets eerily silent for a provincial capital and transportation hub.

This likely meant that Hezbollah was waiting for them.

When they returned and relayed the information, the army Lieutenant ordered Hassan and his partisans to enter the town before the army did. Knowing Hezbollah, the enemy would be equipped with a large arsenal of anti-armor launchers, but a light and mobile infantry force would be able to pin them down and allow the mechanized forces some breathing room. Hassan caught his breath. This maneuver was going to be fraught with peril, but he knew the alternatives were worse. Hassan waved to his comrades, and together, they marched on the side of the road, sticking to the rocks and shrubbery for cover. The town once again appeared in the distance, and the men spotted a cluster of buildings only two hundred meters ahead of them, likely being used by Hezbollah as an impromptu checkpoint. The men took a moment to gather their strength. There was scant cover to be found in the stretch from their position to the residences, and the enemy most definitely had placed machine gun emplacements. They would have to make a run for it.

With a wave of his hand, Hassan ordered his men forward. The moment they cleared the bend in the road, they heard the high-pitched cracks of automatic fire from their destination, and heard bullets impact only a few meters off from them. They ran through more than a hundred meters of open hillside, populated by only the occasional bush, while the enemy continued to fire bursts at them. Hassan was almost hit by a round, and he heard the cries of two of his men as they were gunned down. Later, he would mourn, but in the moment the only thing he could think of was his own survival. One long, harrowing minute later, he and four others made it to the wall of a compound, the other buildings obscuring the machine gunners' line of fire. It was good practice to place machine gun emplacements and anti-armor emplacements in different locations for redundancy. If the machine gunners were on the other side of the road, the anti-armor personnel were likely in the building they were standing by.

Hassan sent a man to burst through an entrance. The moment the door swung open, Hassan heard shouts from the inside. They had found the enemy. Hassan's men swept through the building, clearing it room by room, and suffering another casualty in the process. Finally, the squad stumbled upon a rocket launcher operator and his assistant on the rooftop, and shot them when they reached for their rifles. Hassan radioed that the way was clear, and in the distance he observed an APC make its way down the road. Suddenly, the machine gun fire began again, the enemy attempting to suppress the vehicle and prevent its soldiers from leaving it. Hassan was about to relocate when he heard the noise of an airborne object in the distance, and immediately ordered his men to duck. The moment he hit the ground, he felt the ground shake as multiple explosions went off near him.

A few seconds later, Hassan tried to stand up as his ears rung from the blast. It was only after he had come to his feet that he realized that the sound he heard was not his ears - it was the distant roar of what could only be a jet engine. Hassan looked towards the town, and witnessed it light up with more explosions from what could only be precision-guided bombs. Turning back to the army forces, Hassan watched in horror as multiple air-to-surface missiles came from the sky, impacting the men. Hassan's heart sank as he realized that much of the company had been annihilated in only a few seconds.

But worst of all, what had happened meant that the worst possible development had come to pass. Hezbollah had no air force, so there was only one possible culprit for the attack.

"The Israelis are invading!," shouted Hassan. "We need to move back to the cities!"
 
Chapter 5.4
Excerpt from "A History of the Middle East in the 21st Century"

"Operation Benjamin was a resounding success. While most of Hezbollah's forces were mobilized, their frontlines had been drawn against the Lebanese army around Sidon and across the Lebanese Mountains. Both factions were caught by surprise when the Israeli air force began to bombard their forces across the country. Immediately, this was followed by a spearhead attack from the 36th Armored Division, which in only a few days captured Lebanon's south up to Tyre. Hezbollah's forces in the region were caught in a pincer, and scattered. The IDF then made short work of the disorganized remnants of the Lebanese Army, and rapidly advanced across Lebanon's coast. By the tenth of June, the IDF was approaching the outskirts of Beirut, and the Lebanese Army was mounting a final, desperate defense. Their advance was covered by a continuous aerial bombardment by the air force, which indiscriminately targeted populated areas in accordance with the Dahiya Doctrine.

When the revolutionaries discovered that Israel had broken through Hezbollah's and the Army's positions in the south, they immediately panicked, realizing that the end was near. Their greatest fear was that, even if Israel was no friend of Hezbollah, it would move to reinstate the old sectarian system and return Lebanon's former political class to power. As they had pledged to never again be governed by crooks, they decided that drastic action was necessary. Before the IDF had reached Tyre, the General Secretary of the Lebanese Communist Party ordered the summary execution of every captured individual associated with the old regime. Politicians, businessmen, and even army officers who the soldiers had mutinied against - none were spared, a final act of desperation. It is estimated that more than a thousand were killed by the Party in the span of a week.

Following the capture of Tripoli on the seventeenth of July, the IDF then turned its attention to the hinterlands, still controlled by Hezbollah. Even with much of their strategic arsenal depleted, Hezbollah still managed to inflict severe losses on the Israeli forces, as well as terrorizing the Israeli population by firing rockets into major population centers, though fortunately these were mostly unguided rockets and not cruise missiles. However, by August, the last Hezbollah strongholds fell to the IDF, and Israel now found itself occupying a country completely bereft of leadership."



June 11, 2021
Karantina Neighborhood, Beirut


Hassan held his rifle at the ready while he stood against the wall, at the threshold of his apartment. In the background, he could hear the roar of jets sweeping overhead, the explosions of guided bombs and artillery as they reduced entire complexes to rubble, and the inexorable march of APCs as they drove through the streets of Beirut. Every few seconds, the ground would tremble as the IDF unleashed its latest attack on the Army. Ruza was hiding beneath a table, scared out of her wits. Hassan stood by the door for minute upon agonizing minute, as he heard the IDF's APCs move closer and closer. Eventually, he heard a vehicle pause, followed by distant footsteps from below.

They had made it to the apartment. Hassan immediately turned to the one thing he could protect: his daughter.

"Ruza, I do not know if I can make it, but I want you to escape this city! I have family in Iraq, people who believe in the cause and will shelter you."

He ran to a cabinet, retrieving a small package.

"This should be all the documentation you need, plus directions and enough money to make it to Baghdad..."

He heard the sound of knocking from below, followed by shouts and a gunshot.

"Quickly, Ruza!," shouted Hassan. "Leave before it's too late!"

His daughter retrieved the briefcase, before running to the fire escape. With fear in her heart, she turned one last time to her father, and said she loved him. She saw him shed a tear before turning back to the door. Then, she heard voices coming down the hall. One word, repeated.

"Kommunisty! Kommunisty!"

The men in the hall were not speaking Hebrew, but Russian. Ruza could not wait any longer. She descended down the fire escape as fast as she could, and reached the ground just as she heard a shot from the site of her former home. She ran through the streets, hiding from soldiers and dodging artillery strikes, until she somehow made it to the outskirts of the city. There, she found a brave taxi driver, and it was only then that she allowed herself to cry. The driver took her away from Beirut, down the highway towards the border with Syria. She didn't know how they managed to avoid any Hezbollah or IDF forces. Perhaps it was a miracle from above. Or maybe it was just dumb luck. Whatever it was, they made it to Syria, crossed the border, and from there, she would find her way to freedom.
 
Chapter 5.5
Excerpt from "A History of the Middle East in the 21st Century"

"While the Lebanese Revolution had come to an end only three months after Labor Day, it would change the Middle East forever. During the 20th century, Marxism and the traditional left had been a marginal force at most in Middle Eastern politics. Instead, many turned first to secular nationalist dictatorships and then to Islamists in their quest to become independent from the West and forge their own destiny. However, the sight of a movement that many had written off leading a revolt against a corrupt government and repudiating the powers that be was inspiring for the alienated masses. The years following would be a red wave, as many joined Marxist movements, seeing in them an alternate to both the spent movements of the past and tepid Western-inspired liberalism.

Almost immediately after the fall of the revolutionary government, many Lebanese revolutionaries fled across the border to Syria. However, the Ba'athist government there was hostile to them, viewing them as a destabilizing force, and they fled even further, to Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, and even to Europe. A few moved to Palestine, where they joined the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the previously marginal Marxist branch of the Palestinian Liberation Organization. This group would find a swelling of support in the following years, as many Palestinians had grown disillusioned with both Fatah and Hamas, the establishment Palestinian factions. Emboldened, the PFLP would conduct an increasing number of terror attacks against Israel, making them infamous across the Western world.

However, by far the most successful of the Middle Eastern Marxists were the Iraqi and Sudanese Communist Parties. These organizations had already had an established presence in their respective nations before the Lebanese Revolution, and were able to attract many supporters due to their anti-sectarian and anti-corruption platforms. These parties, being committed to democratic, popular-frontist politics, were more similar to the pre-World War 1 Social Democratic Parties than the violent revolutionaries of the later 20th century, and they fought for practical, achievable goals. Of course, their enemies did not distinguish between them and the insurrectionists of the PFLP. To the West, the nationalists, and the Islamists, the Marxists were a terrifying new force that had to be suppressed by any means necessary, though they would find that this would be much harder than expected.

The final and most unfortunate consequence of the red wave would be found in European politics. For decades, those in both the traditional and the radical right had alleged that leftists and Muslims were aligned together in shared hostility towards the West. A communist revolution in the Middle East would, in their eyes, prove them right."
 
Alright, Chapter 5 is finally complete! This one was pretty difficult to write for multiple reasons, and the next one should come much easier. Look forward to this weekend.
 
Hang on, why were there Russians in the Islaeli army attaching Lebanon? Or have I badly misunderstood things?
 
Hang on, why were there Russians in the Islaeli army attaching Lebanon? Or have I badly misunderstood things?

About 15% of the Israeli population consists of Russian-speaking immigrants from the former Soviet Union, and in many areas you can find street signs in Russian as well as Hebrew. The Russian Israeli community is infamous for its right-wing bias, so it's no wonder that Russian-Israeli soldiers would be quite hostile to any communists they encountered.
 
I'm wondering about Egypt too. It has its own leftist activity, which benefited from the end of Mubarak's rule.

English language sources are kinda awful on anything Egypt though.
 
I'm wondering about Egypt too. It has its own leftist activity, which benefited from the end of Mubarak's rule.

English language sources are kinda awful on anything Egypt though.

I honestly don't know what to do with Egypt. That's probably something I'll have to save for the book.
 
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