Lest the World Perish: A Timeline of the Near-Apocalypse

[gutza1]

October 15, 2022
Zhongnanhai Complex, Beijing

"Are you sure of this, General-Secretary? We have not conducted an internal investigation of this scale since the Cultural Revolution!"
"Of course I am sure, Director Sun."

General-Secretary Lin stared at the report the Military Intelligence Bureau had provided. Even its preliminary findings were enough to make his blood boil. The campaign in Myanmar had been a trial, and the People's Liberation Army had been found sorely wanting. It should not have taken five months to topple the Tatmadaw when the irregulars and guerilla fighters were on their side. It should have not have taken the lives of a thousand Chinese soldiers, who were supposed to play a support role. Of course, all of these things had happened, and the General-Secretary knew the reason. Incompetence, plain as day. For decades, the officer corps of the People's Liberation Army had been a welcoming home for well-connected princelings and Party apparatchiks to send their sons and nephews to. For decades, the Army had rested on its laurels even as it attempted to transform itself from a guerilla force to a world-class fighting force. For too long, nepotism and corruption within the military had been seen as a feature, and not a flaw. This would end now, and the Burmese Civil War would be the perfect opportunity for the General-Secretary to make this change. He had just authorized a sweeping probe into the PLA's performance, using it to identify incompetent or unqualified officers. General-Secretary Lin hoped that at least one hundred names would enter into his hands. One hundred names to purge from the ranks. It would be painful, but he knew the people would tolerate nothing less. By the end, the PLA would emerge smarter and stronger than before the conflict. It would have to be, to survive the trials ahead. The Director of the Military Intelligence Bureau departed. Now, another meeting.

---

General Xin found the General-Secretary sitting on a bench by one of the Complex's many lakes. The sky was clear, thankfully, making this the perfect meeting place for one who still did not know whom to trust. As the General approached, General-Secretary Lin motioned for him to sit down beside him. This meeting had been arranged on short notice. Clearly, the General-Secretary wished to be discreet.

"General Xin, I must commend you for your performance in the Burmese Civil War. You have shown vision, wisdom, and leadership that many of your colleagues last. My administration has been searching for men of your caliber, and I believe you can be of further use to me."

The General-Secretary looked around, making sure that no one else was present.

"Following the results of the Intelligence Bureau's investigation, I will be removing the current Minister of National Defense from his post. Furthermore, I intend to nominate you as his successor."

The General was taken aback.

"General-Secretary... I am not worthy of this..."
"I insist, General."
"Then, I would be honored to serve."
"As you will. I look forward to making you an integral part of my administration."

The General-Secretary paused, staring out at the lake.

"Such tranquility. Enjoy it while it lasts, Comrade. I fear the next years will be fraught with conflict. Only men like you will be capable of resolving them."

 

[gutza1]

Alright, that's it for Chapter 17. This one was a bit tough to write - I was honestly just looking forward to getting it over with so I can move on to the actually interesting stuff. Expect one more China chapter and, following that, a conclusion to bring 2022 to an end. This has taken significantly longer than I was hoping for, and I apologize for the delays.

 

[gutza1]

China's becoming one of the first countries to fully adopt drone warfare as a war-winning strategy. The US is going to have to scramble to catch up.

Click to shrink...

They're building a drone fleet IRL. As for how it will evolve in the story... well, you'll find out soon enough. One of the things I hope to do is explore how the current paradigm of warfare the West has been using won't be adequate for the 21st century. For decades, we've mainly been fighting enemies far less sophisticated than us. That will likely no longer be the case.

 

[gutza1]

I just realized I forgot to include the part where General-Secretary Lin decides to promote General Xin as his new Minister of National Defense. That has been edited into 17.5.

 

[Mister Anemone]

Excerpt from The Unbowed Dragon: A Retrospective on Antebellum China, 1976-2035

Many in the Chinese government had expected that something like the Ping'an Crisis would occur. The effects of the revelations were predictable. In the following days, real estate prices collapsed and investors, foreign and domestic, withdrew their funds. As many loans in the shadow banking sector were based on the real estate sector, this caused a vast number of shadow loans to go bad, causing many shadow lenders to go under. The effects of the crisis would immediately spiral out to every sector of the economy. The Chinese government would never allow the large enterprises that dominated China's economy to go bankrupt, and bailed them out like they did countless times before. However, the central government was soon faced with a different crisis: over the years, many local governments had racked up large amounts of debt, and that debt was now coming due, as lenders sought to recoup their losses. The government then made an impactful decision: it felt that it would be too great a cost to bail them out, allowing them to go bankrupt. As China's social services, at the time, were run by local governments, this caused tens of millions of Chinese to lose access to subsidized healthcare and education. The Chinese government felt that this was an unfortunate outcome, but one that it could bear.

While local government bankruptcies were the immediate consequences of the Ping'an Crisis, its true effects would only become apparent in the following months. While the state-backed corporations would survive, China's small businesses, which had already been subject to economic distress due to the previous year's pandemic, were pushed to the brink of collapse, as they had been dependent on the shadow banking system for credit. It is estimated that a third of small businesses in China went bankrupt in 2021, taking with them tens of millions of jobs in the urban regions. The shadow banking collapse would find another victim in the expanding class of homeowners who had turned to shadow banking to purchase their homes and now found themselves subject to foreclosures. Finally, the crisis would force China to cut back heavily on foreign investment. Around the beginning of the new tens, China had started the Belt and Road Initiative, a trillion-dollar series of infrastructure investments in Asia and Africa financed through loans. The ambitious initiative, while managing to complete multiple projects, had already begun to run into financial difficulties as the nations receiving investment found themselves unable to pay off the loans. The shadow banking crisis severely impacted China's foreign investment, rendering the Belt and Road Initiative financially untenable, and China was forced to write off all of its debt and cancel future projects. This, the earlier capital flight triggered by the revelations of the Ping'an investigation, and crises in the next few months, would hurt the already battered economies of the first and third world alike, triggering a long-awaited global recession. China would struggle to heal its bruised reputation as an investor and investee alike.

Despite the fact that tens of millions of its citizens had found themselves unemployed or homeless, and tens of millions of rural migrants found themselves even more destitute, the Chinese government remained confident that it could weather this crisis like it weathered the past two great financial crises that impacted Asia. It betted that its citizenry would retain their faith in their government and view the Ping'an Crisis as a temporary ordeal.

This would turn out to be a severe miscalculation.

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Well, another nice TL that we have here in this site- *looks at Evergrande Crisis*

Well...yeah.

 

[gutza1]

Well, another nice TL that we have here in this site- *looks at Evergrande Crisis*

Well...yeah.

Click to shrink...

Welcome, new reader! Honestly, I thought something like this was coming for a while, what happened in Chapter 2 was just a placeholder. When I publish this for real I'll likely edit in the real Evergrande crisis.

 

[gutza1]

Finishing up Chapter 18 tonight, but as an aside, remember how in this story I have Blue Origin gain a significant role in the United States' space industry?

Blue Origin and Sierra Space announce plans for commercial space station - SpaceNews

 

[gutza1]

October 27, 2022
Great Hall of the People, Beijing

Once again, the cameras found the General-Secretary standing in front of a podium. With the first Plenary Session since the Party Congress having just concluded, the public was eagerly anticipating this press conference. General-Secretary Lin reviewed his prepared statements, then motioned those present to silence.

"Citizens of the People's Republic," he began.

"With the conclusion of the First Plenary Session of the 20th Party Congress, the Party has moved past the recent period of emergency and has begun the process of charting a new course for the future. In a few months' time, we will have reached the second anniversary of the financial crisis that threatened the fabric of our nation itself. Over a period of mere months, tens of millions of laborers found themselves unemployed and unable to pay for bare necessities. Our factories were threatened with closure, our houses were threatened with abandonment, and our investments were threatened with default. It was only through decisive action that a true depression was avoided. However, we must now look beyond short-term economic recovery and towards long-term commitments. In the past few decades, our nation has witnessed an unprecedented economic transformation, from a backwards agrarian society to an industrial power. Unfortunately, this rapid growth has only disguised multiple contradictions that are building within society, with the Ping'An Crisis being a reminder of the threat they pose. The reforms required to resolve them may be painful in the short term, but these sacrifices will lift a great burden off of the backs of future generations."

He paused.

"From now on, we must prioritize the long-term sustainability of our society above all else. For this purpose, the Central Committee has crafted a five-point program for the Fifteenth Plan to follow. These five points will serve as the guiding star for our new administration.

The first point is investments in human capital. While our population has been leveraged for the purposes of modernization to great effect, we have already approached the limits of growth in low-skilled industry. To avoid the stagnation faced by other middle-income nations, we must overcome the final barriers to modernization and invest in the growth of a skilled workforce that can compete with the developed world. This will be done via the removal of hukou-based restrictions on access to social services, to grant our long-forgotten internal migrants an opportunity to rise above their humble origins.

The second point is improvement of quality of life. The modern China faces a profound crisis of purpose. Birth rates have plummeted, and many youth would prefer to 'lie flat' as an alternative to endless drudgery. To avoid a demographic crisis, we must overhaul our social services, dramatically reducing living expenses and providing our citizenry with a measure of social security. Some may question the effectiveness of these policies, but they are necessary to improve our human capital and achieve parity with the West.

The third point is the remediation of social inequality. Our society has grown dangerously unbalanced, with our wealth being held by an increasingly small amount of notables, leaving the people destitute. We must endeavor to correct this imbalance and recenter the proletariat as the cornerstone of the People's Republic, to ensure that the rewards of modernity may be distributed among all our citizens.

The fourth point is the resolution of the ecological and climate crisis, one that threatens not only China, but all of humanity. We may have embraced lax standards and short-termism during our development, but this modus operandi must come to an end. Previous administrations have set a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Recent science has found that this is far too late. We will accelerate our transition to a sustainable society almost twofold, aiming to complete it by 2045. This goal may seem outlandish, but the rapidly destabilizing climate leaves us with no other choice. To accomplish this, we shall have to radically transform the way we live and work, to construct entirely new infrastructure and implement technologies currently on the drawing board. It shall be the greatest challenge we shall face."

A pause, once again.

"The fifth point is a reengagement with the rest of the world and an increased role for an international mission. While the confines of transactional relations and sovereigntist politics may be comforting, it will not protect us from the coming crisis human civilization faces. All of our efforts will be for naught if the rest of the world does not follow suit. We must put aside our differences, or we will surely perish."

He steadied himself for the tirade of questions that would follow. He anticipated that the last point would be found quite disagreeable by some of the Party's lay supporters. It did not matter. He would do what had to be done, and the people would eventually understand why it was necessary.

 

[gutza1]

November 8, 2022
Huntsville, Alabama

Dr. Jonathan Hepler reclined on his couch, a beer bottle in his hand, as the results of the midterms came in, first as a trickle, then as a sea of red.

It was exactly what he had dreaded. The Republicans were guaranteed to take back the House, and the Democrats would hang on to their fifty Senate seats by the skin of their teeth. The country would have only two years of deadlock to look forward to.

"Goddamn it!" he shouted, with no one around to hear. He had been a Democrat his entire life, born and raised as one. It was the party of the smart people, and of the people who cared about the downtrodden. But now the party seemed to be hemorrhaging voters he had thought were safe - Latinos, the poor, even black men. Something was deeply wrong. This felt like a waking nightmare - had the party lost its way?

The esteemed Doctor didn't know how much of a future he had left. After his testimony in Congress, he feared that every truly committed devotee of the free market would see him as an enemy. Would he be the victim of a political witch-hunt? One would think that NASA was immune to such dirty wars, but in recent years, America had begun to question everything it once held sacred.

It was already a long enough night. He had tomorrow to think about this.

 

[gutza1]

December 2, 2022
Najaf, Iraq

Ruza raced to find her aunt as soon as she heard the news. Fear coursed through her mind, as she feared the worst. She passed through a narrow street and emerged into a crowd of onlookers, staring in horror as the regional headquarters of the Iraqi Communist Party blazed. It took her five anxious minutes to find Aunt Maryam. The two embraced as they waited for the fire brigade to arrive.

"This is the second time in five years that we have been targeted by arsonists!" Aunt Maryam lamented. She shook her head. "The Shiite militias are growing even bolder in their attacks. Have you heard what they did to those investigative journalists in Baghdad? This country is falling to the wolves!"

She turned to her niece.

"Ruza, I know you are just a child, but you must not let your guard down. We are heading towards a terrible confrontation with these thugs, and you must steel yourself for what will come in the next few years. Be strong, Ruza. Know that me and your cousin will always be there for you. We will do our best to protect you, but we are not all-powerful. I know you are busy with your studies, but the time may come when you will have to help us. I only wish there was another way."

Maryam motioned for Ruza to follow her home. They had much more to discuss.

 

[gutza1]

December 9, 2022
Akademgorok, Novosibirsk

Professor Shabayev was just returning to his house, looking forward to a much-needed weekend of relaxation, when he found Maxim waiting for him by the door. The youth had a wild-eyed stare on his face as he carried his laptop.

"Professor, you're never going to believe this!"

He pointed to an email that was open on his computer screen. It was written in English and addressed to "the team of Russia Unheard." The Professor, curious, stooped to read.

"Due to your exemplary work highlighting the issues facing Russia today, the People's Party of the United States invites you as a guest speaker at the 2023 People's Forum of America in Chicago, held on February 3-5, all expenses paid. We wish to provide international perspectives on the issues facing the progressive movement across the globe. Please reply by January 10, 2023."

The Professor was shocked, to say the least.

"Some Americans want me to speak? How would they even find us out?"
"This is incredible, Professor!"
"I... I do not know what to make of this. Give me some time to consider the offer."

It would take him a week, but he would eventually accept. A part of him feared that doing so would draw the attention of the authorities, but then again, the People's Party didn't seem like the kind of Americans the regime was afraid of. This would be an opportunity to not only spread his message to the wider road, but get an understanding of how the left fared in the most powerful nation on Earth.

At the same time, a certain Dr. Jonathan Hepler would receive a similar invitation, for his "courage at exposing the fraudulence of Silicon Valley." He would also accept. Perhaps this experience would grant him a new perspective on things.

 

[gutza1]

Article:

Gaddafi Government Overthrown Once Again

On the morning of February 14, the citizens of Libya, a fractured nation only recently made whole again, awoke to find that presidential candidate General Haftar of the former Libyan National Army had launched a coup against the president-elect Saif Gaddafi. General Haftar declared that he is "safeguarding the future of Libyan democracy" by removing the son of the former Libyan dictator from power. Haftar remains a controversial figure in Libyan society due to his ties to Russia and the alleged war crimes committed by the Libyan National Army under his tenure. Already, the General has suspended parliament and begun rule by decree, and many fear that he seeks to become yet another strongman no different from Gaddafi himself. As a response to criticism, he has sent envoys to the West, promising to bring much-needed stability to Libya, but it remains to be seen whether he can fulfil them. Regardless, many fear that the future of Libya will remain uncertain.

Source: BBC

Article:

Contested Election Rattles Brazil

Following October's Presidential election, Brazil has found itself facing an unprecedented political crisis. The results show the former President Lula da Silva, freed from prison the year prior, having resoundingly defeated the controversial right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. The latter, a retired army captain who has expressed admiration for Brazil's former military dictatorship on numerous occasions, has refused to concede the election to his opponent, citing unsubstantiated claims of "widespread voter fraud." Some of Bolsonaro's supporters have gone as far as to accuse Lula of somehow rigging the election entirely as part of a nefarious plot to "destroy traditional values," and the capital of Brasilia was recently host to a large pro-Bolsonaro rally on its streets. Many in Brazil are openly calling upon the military to intervene on the side of the incumbent, and the fate of Brazil's democracy lies in the balance.

Source: The Guardian

Article:

Inside China's Expanding Middle Eastern Presence

For decades, the Middle East was the playground of different, hostile nations - first the United States and Soviet Union, which were later joined by the regional powers of the Gulf States, Iran, and Turkey. However, in recent years, it appears that another great power is making an entrance onto the Middle Eastern stage - the People's Republic of China. While Chinese business dealings with the Gulf States extend back to the 20th century, the solvency crisis of Belt and Road Initiative investments in Africa has caused the People's Republic to focus investments somewhat closer to home. Already, China's state construction corporation has signed agreements with both Syrias and Iran for the construction of east-west railway routes. With planned renovations of the Port of Lakatia, some wonder if China is seeking to create a direct land route to the Mediterranean Sea under its control. However, such ambitions are blocked by the government dysfunction and brewing sectarian violence in Iraq, preventing any kind of serious infrastructure investment from taking place. Without Iraq, China cannot possibly hope to succeed in its quest to link East and West.

Source: Financial Times

Article:

Houthis Emerge Victorious as Yemen Faces Partition

With the signing of the Sana'a Accords in June of 2022, the eight-year long Yemeni Civil War has finally come to an end - and the settlement has granted the Houthis their long sought-after victory. Ever since the fall of Marib early this year, the Iran-backed rebel group held an advantage in peace negotiations with the internationally-recognized government of Yemen, backed by Saudi Aradia and the Gulf states. For years, the Saudi military waged a brutal aerial bombardment campaign against the Houthis, triggering one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century. However, this proved insufficient to deter the Houthis in their struggle for what they describe as a war of liberation against foreign domination. The government of Yemen, paralyzed by Qatar-funded secessionists, was unable to respond to an organized and motivated foe. This year proved to be the breaking point, as the secessionists in the Yemeni government gained the upper hand following the battle of Marib, bringing the Houthis to the negotiating table. The Sana'a Accords will partition the country of Yemen between a Houthi-controlled north and secessionist-controlled south, a revival of its Cold War-era division. This is a decisive defeat for Saudi Arabia and the government of Mohammad bin Salman, who invested significant resources into the Yemeni Civil War. Conservative voices in Saudi Arabia are now starting to question whether the crown prince truly represents the best interests of the Saudi monarchy.

Source: The New York Times

 

[gutza1]

Alright, that's a wrap for 2022. The next Chapter will see both Professor Shabayev and Dr. Hepler in the same room, as we arrive at the People's Forum of America. Apologies for the delay, the past two weeks have seen one of my professors dumb a massive workload on me. However, this period is now over, and I feel ready to resume more frequent updates.

 

[gutza1]

I realized I forgot a very important news event for 2022. This has been edited in:

Article:

Houthis Emerge Victorious as Yemen Faces Partition

With the signing of the Sana'a Accords in June of 2022, the eight-year long Yemeni Civil War has finally come to an end - and the settlement has granted the Houthis their long sought-after victory. Ever since the fall of Marib early this year, the Iran-backed rebel group held an advantage in peace negotiations with the internationally-recognized government of Yemen, backed by Saudi Aradia and the Gulf states. For years, the Saudi military waged a brutal aerial bombardment campaign against the Houthis, triggering one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century. However, this proved insufficient to deter the Houthis in their struggle for what they describe as a war of liberation against foreign domination. The government of Yemen, paralyzed by Qatar-funded secessionists, was unable to respond to an organized and motivated foe. This year proved to be the breaking point, as the secessionists in the Yemeni government gained the upper hand following the battle of Marib, bringing the Houthis to the negotiating table. The Sana'a Accords will partition the country of Yemen between a Houthi-controlled north and secessionist-controlled south, a revival of its Cold War-era division. This is a decisive defeat for Saudi Arabia and the government of Mohammad bin Salman, who invested significant resources into the Yemeni Civil War. Conservative voices in Saudi Arabia are now starting to question whether the crown prince truly represents the best interests of the Saudi monarchy.

Source: The New York Times

Click to shrink...

 

[Nyvis]

Unlike other cold war divisions, Yemen's was pretty logical, and it wasn't really united before it either. This is probably the best outcome we can expect out of it.

 

[gutza1]

Unlike other cold war divisions, Yemen's was pretty logical, and it wasn't really united before it either. This is probably the best outcome we can expect out of it.

Click to shrink...

Agreed. What MBS did to that country was criminal.

 

[gutza1]

Before writing the next chapter, I've gone ahead and made a few changes to the previous chapters. First, I've changed the outcome of the 2021 German federal election to its RL outcome, as having the Social Democrats in power works better for the story. Here is the new snippet:

Article:

Germany's New Chancellor

In last Sunday's federal elections, the people of Germany have turned out to select Angela Merkel's successor and it appears that the the CDU/CSU union will be removed from power after having ruled for twenty years. Already, Chancellor nominee Olaf Scholtz of the Social Democratic Party has spoken before a crowd of cheering supporters, promising a new deal for Germany. For a decade, the old stalwart of the German center-left was thought to be moribund due to the CDU's political triangulation. However, the incoming election results grant the SDP an unprecedented share of the vote. Already, the party has begun talks with the environmentally-minded Green Party and the market liberal Free Democratic Party to create a parliamentary coalition revolving around combatting the climate crisis through a combination of public investment and private innovation.

While many are satisfied with this outcome, some on the left fear that the Social Democratic Party has once again betrayed its core values, capitulating to the right in an act that will only hamper its ability to implement decarbonization. According to these dissenters, it was the current status quo that allowed the climate crises to go unaddressed in the first place, and a more radical solution to the problem of carbon emissions is necessary. Are these merely the grumblings of a marginal group of naysayers, or harbingers of a looming crisis in German society?

Source: The Guardian

I also changed Chapter 15.3 to have Dynetics be the backup lunar lander for NASA and not Blue Origin, as the recent released court findings reveal that NASA was quite dissatisfied with the National Team Lander. Instead, Blue Origin comes to fame by constructing the Orbital Reef, the largest private space station in orbit by the end of the 2020s. A focus on station-building feels more appropriate to the company's long-term philosophy.

 

[gutza1]

Journal of Emil Ilyich Shabayev
February 1, 2023

Today, I am traveling to America. After 2014, I never thought I'd write those words here again. After all, the regime has already enough reason to be suspicious of me. My only consolation is that the venue I am speaking at is sufficiently against the American political establishment that the FSB may decide to look the other way. This visit will be different compared to when I was living in the United Kingdom. Back then, I primarily traveled to the United States for academic conferences, hosted in charming, well-manicured university towns. Chicago is an entirely new beast. I've heard that crime is rampant there, with many neighborhoods all but ruled by criminal gangs and their inhabitants long abandoned by the police. The sordid realities of the past two years has only exacerbated the situation. Maxim and I will have to keep our wits about us.

To be honest, I am afraid of what I might find across the Atlantic. Ever since the downturn in the Chinese economy, the United States has been trapped in a slow-motion crisis. GDP growth remains stagnant, the supply shortages are worse than ever, and hundreds of thousands are being laid off. Some of my colleagues fear that America is entering a Second "Long Depression," similar to the decade-long economic crisis it experienced following its Civil War. Whatever it is, it is clear that the America I am traveling to has changed in an irrevocable way from when I originally visited. One can only hope that this misery will have a happy ending.

 

[gutza1]

February 2, 2023
Chicago, United States

It was a frigid, overcast morning when Professor Shabayev and his companion emerged from the terminal at O'Hare International Airport and made their way to their rental Prius. A fresh layer of snow had arrived the night before - conditions that the Professor was well-accustomed to navigating. He pulled out from the rental lot, smoothly driving towards the highway. For him, this was familiar ground, but Maxim was glued to the windows. It was the first time he had been to another country, and everything about this place was new to him.

"I hope you've been practicing your English, Maxim," reminded Shabayev.

The boy chuckled. "Don't you worry, Professor. I speak with anglophones on the internet all the time."

"For a certain definition of 'speaking,'" teased the Professor. They were now making their way past several of the well-off suburbs to the north of the city proper. They reminded Shabayev of the faculty-populated neighborhood where he lived, though some of the houses were significantly more... ostentatious than what he was used to. American suburbia was a strange thing.

After half an hour, the endless rows of houses transitioned into the higher-density development of the downtown proper. Ahead of them loomed countless skyscrapers, creatures that were unfamiliar to most of Russia.

"What do you think so far?" inquired Shabayev.

"It's all very much. This city looks just like all those new business sectors in Moscow we passed by," replied Maxim. They were now weaving their way through the rush morning traffic that was all-to-common in most American cities. After another half an hour, they finally arrived at their Hilton hotel. The interior was large, immaculately polished, and filled to the brim with people. Both Shabayev and Maxim felt miniscule as they made their way to the concierge to pick up their room key. It was a relief when they finally were able to ascend the elevators and enter their room. When they entered, the latter almost immediately collapsed on one of the two beds. The poor boy could barely keep his eyes open after two miserable plane rides. The Professor didn't mind. Tomorrow was going to be a long day, and the two needed all the rest they could get.

Before he headed to his own bed, the Professor stole a few moments looking out the window of their room. Below the skyscrapers were countless cars and pedestrians alike, traveling to and fro despite the awful weather. Was this the dynamic engine that drove the worlds largest economy, never sleeping? Perhaps. Shabayev felt that there was another side to this country currently hidden from his view - and after the convention, he would seek it out and witness it firsthand.

 

[gutza1]

February 3, 2023
Chicago, United States

"Our identification," spoke Professor Shabayev with only a hint of accent as he held out his invitation to the security guard in front of the McCormick Place Convention Center. The guard looked at it for a moment.

"You came all the way from Russia?" he asked, incredulously.

"Yes. I've become an... amateur investigator in the past year."

The guard shrugged his shoulders before allowing them in. The interior of the convention hall was pandemonium. People of all colors - skin and hair - wandered between various booths. They had been summoned here by a group that called itself the "People's Party of the United States" - an organization that feigned to be a grassroots, left-wing alternative to the two established. Shabayev struggled through the crowds, attempting to find the room where he would give his talk. After a few minutes, as he was taking a moment to regain his bearings, he was approached by a young woman in her twenties wearing a hand-knitted cap.

"May I help you?" he asked.

"Hi, would you be interested in hearing your horoscope?" the woman squeaked.

"Astrology?" The Professor was dumbstruck.

"Yeah. You have a problem with that?" the woman replied, her tone now carrying a distinct passive-aggressive tinge. Before he could speak, the Professor was dragged away by Maxim, desperate to escape.

"I've met these people before online, it's best if you don't engage with them," he hissed into the Professor's ear as the two absconded to safer ground, passing by a stand selling memorabilia of Japanese cartoon characters. Fortunately, it took only one more minute of searching before they found their conference room.

The talk went relatively well, all things considered. The audience, mostly people in their twenties, were enraptured by his story. Professor Shabayev spoke at length of his life history, of his experience - both academic and non-academic - investigating the unsavory features of modern civilization, of his recent awakening as an activist. He spoke of battles yet to come, of struggles that could unite both their countries. He spoke of a better future for humanity that was possible, if only all conscientious citizens arose to create it.

It was only when he left the room that the trouble started. Less than a minute after he walked out the door, he was accosted by another young woman.

"Professor Shabayev," she began in a tone that feigned politeness yet only disguised deep-seated contempt. "I listened to your talk and I've had some concerns about your views on race. Specifically, you seem to think that a lot of the work of leading racial scholars is, in your words, 'Americentric.' Do you care to clarify what you mean by that?"

The Professor would have to tread carefully.

"What I meant by that," began the Professor, "is that the nature of racism is different in other countries that have not had a large population of nonwhite slaves in their homelands. In most of the world, what we call 'racism' is more based on ethnic or religious hatred. Let me give you an example from my country. Do you know of a people named the Circassians? They were an indigenous people native to the Caucasus region - Muslim majority, but white by any measure. When the Russian Empire stretched southwards, do you know what the Tsar's men did to them in the 1860s? Massacred them, expelled them from their homes. Over one million Circassians were killed or forced to flee to Turkey, where their diaspora remains to this day. The remaining Circassians in Russia were divided into different false 'cultures' and were completely deprived of their land. To this day, far-right Russian nationalists celebrate this act as a 'holy conquest.' Do you understand my point?"

"I don't know. It sounds to me like you are erasing the experiences-," sneered the woman.

"Erasing?! It was genocide! Is this what you'd say about the Irish?! About the Wars of Religion? About the Jews?!"

Shabayev found himself shouting.

"Well you seem to be overlooking the plight of countless black and brown bodies-" continued the woman.

"Bodies?! Is this what you are doing, now?! Are we supposed to refer to human beings as 'bodies,' as if they are cattle?!"

A crowd was gathering around the Professor and Maxim, who had stood silently beside him during the altercation. Countless piercing glares were sent their way, as the tension in the air became as thick as molasses. For one moment, no one dared speak.

"Professor, we need to leave," Maxim whispered. "Now!"

The two ran straight into the crowd towards the exit, swimming through the people present. The entire hall became an endless mass of humanity that threatened to crush the pair to nothing. After what felt like an eternity, they burst through the doors of the convention center and stumbled out onto the street, panting heavily. As they caught their breath, they spotted someone approach them. A bespectacled man in his fifties, with black hair flecked with gray, sharp features on his face, and a long, pointed nose. He uncomfortably shifted in a winter jacket that didn't quite fit his frame - a hasty purchase. The man clearly wasn't accustomed to the frigid Chicago winter.

"So, you've also been run out? Welcome to the club," he mused. Shabayev examined the man for a second. He seemed familiar for some reason.

"Name's Hepler. Dr. Jonathan Hepler, to be precise."

An expression of surprise popped onto Professor Shabayev's face.

"Dr. Hepler? As in, the one who testified in front of the United States Congress last year on Boca Chica?"

The man nodded.

"What a pleasure to meet you in person!" greeted Shabayev as the two shook hands. "I am Professor Shabayev, Novosibirsk State University."

Dr. Hepler's eyebrow rose.

"All the way from Russia? Well, looks like you really got a raw deal," he said, as he gazed towards the entrance of the Convention Center. He shook his head. "If you want to change things, you need to stay as far away as possible from those people."

"May I inquire what caused you to get such an unpleasant reception, Dr. Hepler?" asked Shabayev. Dr. Hepler chuckled.

"I came in to give a talk on the failures of our modern approach to science and technological development. A relevant concern, given what we're doing to the planet. I got to the segment where I was explaining how Silicon Valley tech companies have gained a stranglehold on society and culture, how they control the minds and lives of millions. They were receptive, at first, but then things went haywire pretty quick. I started talking about how it's not just weird Nazis that these companies want to shut down. If they felt that these so-called 'progressives' truly posed a threat to them, they could shut them down pretty quick to. And do you know how much they spy on our every lives?"

He shook his head.

"Point is, while I was talking about this, I might have struck a nerve or two. Likely, I implicated something that the audience themselves felt insulted by. All of a sudden, a bunch of people started jeering. I had to get out of there."

He paused for a moment.

"Honestly, I don't know where my country is going. the past six years have been one headache after another."

"Unfortunately, the roots of your social malaise lie further than that," Professor Shabayev began. "Your country is just much better at hiding its flaws than mine is."

"Well, that's just your opinion," replied Dr. Hepler. "Anyway, nice speaking with you. Have a safe flight back to Russia, and don't let the FSB get you!"

Dr. Hepler departed.

"Well, what do we do now? We still have a few days before our return flight," asked Maxim.

"Now that we have unexpected free time, there is some... investigation I would like to perform," replied the Professor.

 

[gutza1]

February 3, 2023
Chicago, United States

The neighborhood of West Garfield Park was all but deserted when Professor Shabayev and Maxim drove past the location that gave its name. The row of trees next to them was perhaps the only greenery that could be found in the surrounding hundred meters. This part of Chicago was the exact opposite of the one that hosted their hotel. A simple Google search revealed that West Garfield Park had one of the highest rates of violent crime in the United States. As they approached the park, they had driven past rows of decaying tenement blocks, many of them not having been refurbished since the sixties. It reminded the Professor of the Soviet-era abandoned factory towns that littered the Russian countryside, but without any hint of past economic activity. The inhabitants of this place, majority black and mestizo, seemed afraid of their own shadow. Considering their circumstances, who could blame them?

Professor Shabayev was not here to just see a rundown neighborhood. He called out to a young black man who was approaching.

"You, sir! I've heard that the park has recently been occupied! Do you know what's happened?"

The kid was wary. The Professor wondered if he had been mistaken for a cop. After a few seconds, the man spoke.

"Are you talkin about the Bidenville?"
"Is that what they're calling them?"
"Yep. After the evictions started comin, all these people who got thrown on the streets decided to camp here. Got nowhere else to go. It's been here for... about four months, I think. The cops tried to clean it up more times than I can count. Now you done?"
"Yes. Thank you, and have a nice day!"

After the man had passed, the Professor emerged from the car, silently, and snuck towards the entrance of the park, careful to avoid getting spotted by anybody unsavory. He approached the trees, got a good look beyond it. There it was, a field of tents and makeshift shelters. Hundreds of poor souls, abandoned by society, yet clinging desperately to life. The Professor felt nauseous. This was the evil that the authorities were trying to conceal. No doubt that most of the well-off middle class families in the suburbs weren't even aware of this crisis. To them, the destitute may as well have been invisible. Their shallow, meaningless lives would continue without them shedding a tear for those beneath them. That was the way things were since the end of World War 2. The Professor wondered if anything could change it.

A gunshot cracked in the distance. The Professor hurriedly returned to the Prius. It wasn't safe to loiter here. He started the engine, and drove away from the park.

"So, Maxim, now that we've gotten the unpleasant part of this trip out of the way, is there anywhere you would like to head to enjoy the rest of your vacation?"
"The Planetarium is still open, I think."
"Then the Planetarium it is!"

 

[gutza1]

(Whoops NVM there's one more sub-chapter to post)

 

[gutza1]

Journal of Emil Ilyich Shabayev
February 5, 2021

What I see in the United States shakes me to the core. In only a few days, I have uncovered the stench of an entire civilization's decay. I have to congratulate the Americans for managing to keep up the pretenses that their society is admirable. In Russia, we would not bother with such pleasantries. But to be honest, I do not know what I should have expected, when I sought out the most decrepit neighborhoods in Chicago. I witnessed something similar during my tenure at Oxford.

If I am to be honest, I am having trouble believing that a majority of the population in both the West and the East denies that something is horribly wrong. Perhaps they have merely given up hope that the disease can be cured, and turn their passions to symbolic gestures. Is this why mainstream politics has become mindless spectacle? To distract us from the atrocities that are being committed under our very noses? Whatever the answer is, the need for an alternative becomes clearer by the day.

I have long wondered if my country was doomed to follow a special path. But after my visit, I am instead starting to think that Russia is merely the West, but twenty years ahead.

 

[gutza1]

Alright, Chapter 19 is done. This one was more fluff, though it's directly leading to a major story beat in the next chapter. Thanksgiving break has started, so I should be able to crank out another chapter or two in the next few days.

 

[Nyvis]

What's the people's party stuff based on? I know there was some half baked ideas being floated around about one such designation but all the elected officials who can be said to be progressive just said "lol nope" and I think the list of involved people can be narrowed down to the least functional parts of the Sanders campaign.

How did they end up serious enough to invite the professor?

I could see DSA doing fact finding on Russia, they've been trying to establish a more serious foreign policy (though mostly focused on Latin America so far) and are a bit less nonsensical in terms of approach to both policy and organization than this lot, which feels more like a caricature than anything real.

Interesting to see him echo my own observation that we're in a lot of ways entering something that looks suspiciously like late stage soviet decline. America has the gerontocracy down already.

It's also funny (and sad) to see Bidenville catch on, I've been suggesting it for a while because it's a magnificent play on words in French (bidonville is a shanty town).