Lest the World Perish: A Timeline of the Near-Apocalypse

[NegativeHorizon]

As a bit of a SpaceX fan (though less and less of a Musk one as time goes on)...oof, this chapter was a bitter pill to read. While I'm admittedly skeptical of a number of CSS's arguments, I can't argue what they led to in this timeline. The Boca Chica incident just branded a huge black mark on SpaceX and finally tarnished Musk's golden boy. Such a catastrophic failure of Starship probably reverberated through the rest of their ventures, from Starlink to Falcon 9. Wouldn't be surprised if companies and nations pulled back launch contracts with them. Musk himself seems to have taken the brunt of the blame (not surprising, since Starship's admittedly impressive but ultimately calamitous build schedule was all on him), and I wouldn't be surprised if he stepped down and the companies new CEO (Shotwell?) preferring to weather the anger by sticking to orbital aspirations.

Blue Origin being the winner of the decade regarding spaceflight is...kinda odd. They've been noted as being pretty behind schedule and conservative in their rocket and engine development, with ULA getting antsy about the hold-up behind the BE-4 engines. Maybe Bezos' recent refocusing on Blue Origin and his biggest competitor getting kilotons of egg on their face let BO retake the lead. Hell, their conservative growth model might make them more appealing in the wake of the Hickenlooper commission. Still kinda surprised their lander won out for the Moon, given that I was under the impression it had some severe deficits in the design.

Virgin Galactic is the iffiest of the trio, which makes their expanding operations in this timeline eyebrow raising. Musk and Bezos have routes for their company to expand into orbit and beyond (well, the latter here at least) but VG's operating a functional dead-end with air-launched Spaceships, which don't seem to have a way to move beyond suborbital tourism. Plus, they have the messiest engines, which is comparatively minor but a sticking point for me.

All in all, I was expecting more of a pivot into federal launchers and designs, like a reenergized SLS or a stronger hand by NASA in the lunar lander.

 

[gutza1]

As a bit of a SpaceX fan (though less and less of a Musk one as time goes on)...oof, this chapter was a bitter pill to read. While I'm admittedly skeptical of a number of CSS's arguments, I can't argue what they led to in this timeline. The Boca Chica incident just branded a huge black mark on SpaceX and finally tarnished Musk's golden boy. Such a catastrophic failure of Starship probably reverberated through the rest of their ventures, from Starlink to Falcon 9. Wouldn't be surprised if companies and nations pulled back launch contracts with them. Musk himself seems to have taken the brunt of the blame (not surprising, since Starship's admittedly impressive but ultimately calamitous build schedule was all on him), and I wouldn't be surprised if he stepped down and the companies new CEO (Shotwell?) preferring to weather the anger by sticking to orbital aspirations.

Blue Origin being the winner of the decade regarding spaceflight is...kinda odd. They've been noted as being pretty behind schedule and conservative in their rocket and engine development, with ULA getting antsy about the hold-up behind the BE-4 engines. Maybe Bezos' recent refocusing on Blue Origin and his biggest competitor getting kilotons of egg on their face let BO retake the lead. Hell, their conservative growth model might make them more appealing in the wake of the Hickenlooper commission. Still kinda surprised their lander won out for the Moon, given that I was under the impression it had some severe deficits in the design.

Virgin Galactic is the iffiest of the trio, which makes their expanding operations in this timeline eyebrow raising. Musk and Bezos have routes for their company to expand into orbit and beyond (well, the latter here at least) but VG's operating a functional dead-end with air-launched Spaceships, which don't seem to have a way to move beyond suborbital tourism. Plus, they have the messiest engines, which is comparatively minor but a sticking point for me.

All in all, I was expecting more of a pivot into federal launchers and designs, like a reenergized SLS or a stronger hand by NASA in the lunar lander.

Click to shrink...

In the end SpaceX is still getting lots of business from Falcon 9 and Crew Dragon because those are, again, proven and reliable designs that fundamentally can't detonate the way Starship can, and have unique landing technology. As for Blue Origin's national team lander, from what I gathered, the actual design was pretty sound, it's just that it had a significantly higher price tag than Lunar Starship which NASA couldn't afford because HLS was underfunded. Dynetics was the entry with design issues, namely excessive mass that was difficult to remove. Shame, as I was rooting for their design the most.

Virgin Galactic was just an offhand mention for space tourism. They're still just doing suborbital tourist stuff by 2030, perhaps I should cut them out.

SLS was already "reenergized" by the announcement of the Artemis program, as the main issue that it faced management-wise was that the Democrats and the Republicans couldn't agree on whether we should go straight to Mars or return to the Moon first, leaving it stuck in a strange limbo without a well-defined mission. Now, both parties are united behind a return to the Moon, meaning that there's a lot more momentum behind getting it to work for Artemis. It will also be used to launch interplanetary space probes on rapid trajectories, but the thing is that it's fundamentally not supposed to compete with commercial launchers. Falcon Heavy, New Glenn, or the Delta-V are going to be the ones hauling up Gateway modules to lunar orbit or launching probes on long-duration interplanetary missions.

On the ultimate viability of Starship as an interplanetary transport: if I am to be honest, the very fact that it uses low delta-v chemical propulsion is an issue for me. I've long felt that a manned interplanetary transport would have to use a NERVA at the very least. My current preference for a manned Mars mission is an electric plasma thruster similar to VASIMR, which can be powered by solar panels. Considering the dangers that cosmic rays pose to humans, it's important that you minimize the transit time.

 

[Nyvis]

But still - I sincerely hope that a disaster of this magnitude never happens. The catastrophe you described is virtually certain to bankrupt SpaceX and, considering how far behind Blue Origin is, would instantly render commercial space launch a dead letter; if the very concept of reusable super-heavy rockets ends up being discredited as well, human spaceflight as a whole would be set back by decades.

Click to shrink...

It's a death blow for private launches, not for commercial launches (there's plenty of public vehicles doing commercial launches).

"...following the findings of the Hickenlooper commission, NASA formally suspended the Human Landing System contract it had signed with SpaceX a year prior. The company would continue to provide launch services through the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, two far more reliable launch vehicles, but its interplanetary ambitions were over. In the wake of the disaster, many called for a thorough reevaluation of the American spaceflight industry. Unfortunately, these complaints fell on deaf ears, as it was far too easy to place blame purely on Mr. Musk's leadership rather than systemic failure. In the end, the first humans to return to the lunar surface in 2026 (two years behind schedule) would do so using a lander designed by SpaceX's bitter competitor: Blue Origin, helmed by the infamous tech baron Jeff Bezos. Over the next decade, the company would become the new rising star of the space industry, with its partially reusable heavy-lift New Glenn launcher and Blue Moon robotic lunar lander acquiring significant market-share for cislunar and interplanetary flights. Blue Origin would thus become NASA's most significant partner in its Artemis program.

Click to shrink...

Oooor they could learn nothing and jump to the next private company on the list, which will definitely not backfire in the future. For sure. It's the US after all.

Through the Artemis program, NASA and its international partners would establish a presence both in orbit around the Moon and a foothold, Jamestown Base Camp, on the lunar surface near Shackleton Crater at the south pole. However, lunar exploration was not limited to the United States: in the new twenties, Russia, China, Japan, India, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Germany, the UAE, Australia, Turkey, Thailand, South Africa, and Brazil would also send missions to the Moon, though none of them were manned. For many, the Moon appeared to be the next frontier of geopolitical competition.

Click to shrink...

Why is Germany doing a solo mission? I'd expect them to do an European one. Space and scientific programs in general are one of the places where cooperation is pretty good on the European level.

Also I have doubts about the quality of some of those space programs. Orbit? Easy enough. Landing on the moon? When they are nowhere near that right now? Hard enough. And I imagine the poorer ones aren't doing flights back with their unmanned vehicles?

All in all, I was expecting more of a pivot into federal launchers and designs, like a reenergized SLS or a stronger hand by NASA in the lunar lander.

Click to shrink...

Nah I think this fits. The US is too far down its own ass to go back to doing things the public way.

 

[gutza1]

Why is Germany doing a solo mission? I'd expect them to do an European one. Space and scientific programs in general are one of the places where cooperation is pretty good on the European level.

Also I have doubts about the quality of some of those space programs. Orbit? Easy enough. Landing on the moon? When they are nowhere near that right now? Hard enough. And I imagine the poorer ones aren't doing flights back with their unmanned vehicles?

Click to shrink...

Sorry about this - I got this list from a list of future missions to the Moon on Wikipedia. I didn't see that some of them are actually ride-shares on American missions. That has been corrected. The German mission was supposed to be the private ALINA mission, but I guess I'll count it under the umbrella of Europe.

 

[gutza1]

Next chapter coming soon, but I wanted to share some further information about the potential danger of liquid methane that I uncovered:

I discovered a scientific study, Synopsis of LOX/Liquid Methane and Liquid Natural Gas Rocket Propellant Explosion Hazards (which is behind a paywall, so I spent 25 dollars on it so you wouldn't have to) that came out in 2019 and examined the potential explosive potential of liquid methane. Initially, it appears that LOX/methane shouldn't be a particularly dangerous combination - if liquid methane behaved like most other fuels, it would have a functional explosive potential of only 10% its mass in TNT, about the same as LOX/RP-1.

However, the issue is that liquid methane is not like other rocket fuels for one major reason: for both LOX/LH2 and LOX/RP-1, the ability of the propellants to mix in case of a tank breech is fundamentally limited by the fact that the liquid phases of the propellants do not align, meaning that the propellants must be stored at radically different temperatures. Thus, when LOX and LH2 or LOX and RP-1 mix, one of the propellants will immediately begin to boil, causing it to disperse and weakening the explosive potential of the mixture. However, LOX and liquid methane can be liquid at the same temperatures, and SpaceX is explicitly storing the two propellants at approximately the same temperature on Starship. This means that, unlike other propellant mixtures, LOX and liquid methane are miscible, meaning that they could form a dense, stable liquid mixture if Starship suffered a tank breech. Unfortunately, the researchers don't know what that means for LOX/methane's functional explosive potential, as not much research has been done on such mixtures. The fact that LOX and methane is known to be explosive at a far wider range of fuel-to-oxidizer mixtures than LOX/LH2 is a significant cause for concern, though. I'll edit this into the previous chapter.

 

[Kittle]

One thing I've been told repeatedly by various friends who've published research is that if a journal has a paper behind a paywall, just get the authors' names and email them directly and they'll often send you a copy of the paper for free, because they don't receive a penny from the journals when you pay to access their work, which is obviously a bone of contention with the researchers.

 

[gutza1]

One thing I've been told repeatedly by various friends who've published research is that if a journal has a paper behind a paywall, just get the authors' names and email them directly and they'll often send you a copy of the paper for free, because they don't receive a penny from the journals when you pay to access their work, which is obviously a bone of contention with the researchers.

Click to shrink...

Thank you very much for that advice. I'm still a newbie when it comes to scientific research.

 

[gutza1]

Sorry for the delay, school has just started up again. New chapter coming soon, but I have to notify you that I've made some changes to Chapter 15 because I just found out that only 22% of the propellant on Starship and Super Heavy is liquid methane, meaning that I've had to revise the yield of the Boca Chica Disaster to "only" 3-5 kilotons of TNT.

 

[TonedMite]

*only* 3-5 kT. That's still a lot. That's a whole lot. Like, level a portion of downtown a lot. Don't know where Boca Chica is, but is that close enough to populated areas to cause damage?

 

[gutza1]

*only* 3-5 kT. That's still a lot. That's a whole lot. Like, level a portion of downtown a lot. Don't know where Boca Chica is, but is that close enough to populated areas to cause damage?

Click to shrink...

It would inflict significant damage to the village itself but "only" break windows at Port Isabel the next settlement away at 10 km.

 

[gutza1]

...My God:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/31/china-regulator-probes-ping-an-insurances-property-investments.html

 

[Chronometry]

...My God:

Chinese regulator is probing Ping An Insurance's property investments, sources say

Click to shrink...

Gutza, be honest with us: are you secretly a seer?

 

[gutza1]

June 4, 2022
Norilsk, Russia

As the Airbus taxied off the runway, Professor Shabayev and his crew steeled themselves for their coming journey. They all knew that what they would find in this oft-forgotten corner of Siberia would not be pleasant, but that made their task all the more necessary. From the air, the Professor had watched the taiga forests turn to bleak wasteland as the city of Norilsk - an city disconnected from passenger rail and road - approached. Once the plane stopped, the men and women of Russia Unheard exited via ramp. The Professor felt his eyes begin to water as the pollutants in the air assaulted his body.

It would only get worse from here.

The ride into the city of Norilsk proper made his trip to Omsk look pleasant in comparison. It seemed that grime - black, orange, and other colors still - covered almost every exposed surface. A layer of smog hung above the city, providing an oppressive atmosphere. The few inhabitants on the streets hurried from place to place, eager to be outside for as little as possible.

Eventually, the taxi left the city proper. The landscape was stained a dark gray and almost entirely devoid of vegetation, with only the occasional pond to break up the monotony. There were no birds or mammals beside them. The taxi stopped at a hill overlooking a distant industrial complex, which spewed out white clouds of smoke around the clock. The crew exited the vehicle and, after a few minutes of set up, began filming.

"I am standing in the northern city of Norilsk, home for decades to one of the largest smelters of nickel and palladium in the world," began Professor Shabayev. "Unfortunately, it is also one of the most polluted cities on Earth. It is estimated that one percent of global sulfur dioxide emissions come from this city, and the average life expectancy of a Norilsk inhabitant is ten years less than the national average. In some places, the ground has such high concentrations of heavy metals that some have considered mining the topsoil."

He paused.

"The authorities claim that they are modernizing the smelter system to reduce emissions. But, two years ago, this long-forgotten town became home to another tragedy."

The filming ended, and the crew boarded the taxi again. This time, they were headed further to the east, where some amount of foliage was returning to the landscape. They exited once again and climbed a hill to reveal a horrifying site: an entire estuary, cordoned off and tainted a dark shade of red.

"In June of 2020," Professor Shabayev solemnly explained when the crew resumed filming, "this area was the site of one of the greatest environmental disasters in Russia's history - a diesel spill from a fuel storage unit connected to Nornickel's local power plant. It is estimated that the cleanup will take eight more years at the very least."

He paused, again.

"Experts believe the spill was triggered as a result of unexpectedly high summer temperatures - and melting permafrost. And this was only a year before the most severe Siberian wildfires in recorded history."

Another pause, for effect.

"Many in Russia are under the impression that the effects of climate change are a problem for warmer countries. That climate change will not harm us, or will even improve our standing. They are most assuredly wrong. No nation will benefit from climate change. Already, our beloved forests are burning, and our land is turning into a swamp. When the hundreds of millions of refugees from southerly nations flock to us, our society will not be able to support them. Something must be done. That is all."

The filming stopped and Professor Shabayev saw approval on the crew's faces. Their first expedition was complete. Next, they would travel to a wilderness far closer to Russia's European population centers.

 

[gutza1]

June 7, 2022
Tula, Russia

Two hundred and fifty kilometers south of Moscow, Professor Shabayev and Maxim found themselves riding in an off-road van across fields of open prairie. Beside them, their driver sat, single-mindedly focused on the terrain in front of him. They reached a hilltop and disembarked on foot, the driver gesturing for his passengers to follow him over. Maxim switched on his camera and ascended. Ahead was something he had never thought he would live to see. A herd of antelopes, with long horns and oversized nostrils, grazing by a pond - half a world away from the African savannah. Behind him, Maxim heard a chuckle.

"Welcome, Maxim and my dear Professor Shabayev, to our Pleistocene Park!" announced Dr. Nikita Zimov. The Professor was at a loss for words.

Technically, the true Pleistocene Park was on the other end of Russia. This place was its sister - a nature preserve meant for the public to enjoy. It claimed to be a recreation of the Northern Eurasian wilderness as it was more than ten thousand years ago, when wooly mammoths still roamed the Earth. Russia Unheard had stumbled upon it in their push to create climate-related content, and a few calls with the director of the place had landed them a filming opportunity.

"Antelopes in Northern Europe," muttered the Professor.

"Oh yes," replied Dr. Zimov. "For hundreds of thousands of years, North Eurasia was a vast savannah, populated with vast herds of horses, bison, antelopes, and other such creatures. It was, in many respects, a temperate counterpart to the Serengeti in Africa, having similar ecological niches. Far more productive than the taiga that we have currently."

"Then what caused it to disappear?" asked the Professor. In truth, he already knew what the answer would be.

"Us," replied. Dr. Zimov, his tone far more somber. "When humans came, we hunted much of the megafauna to extinction, and the entire ecosystem collapsed around it. With no large herbivores to trample shrubs, the grasslands quickly were replaced with taiga forest - and the world is worse off for it."

"Now, this is quite impressive, Dr. Zimov, but how is this related to the topic of the climate?" asked Shabayev.

"Yes, about that. The herbivores did more than destroy unwanted plant life - they also compacted the snow during winter. That, combined with the presence of grass, ensured that the permafrost underground would be protected from temperature fluctuations aboveground. Now that the ancient steppe is gone, the permafrost is warming very rapidly due to climate change," continued Dr. Zimov.

"And this is triggering unprecedented natural disasters in Siberia - flash floods and wildfires, am I correct?" replied Professor Shabayev.

Dr. Zimov shook his head.

"That is the tip of the iceberg. The real threat is worse. Much, much worse. Let me tell you a story. Two hundred and fifty million years ago, a flood basalt eruption in Siberia - far greater than any volcanic eruption humanity has ever witnessed - triggered the mass release of buried methane deposits. In the span of a few hundred thousand years, the already warm Earth was heated by twenty degrees Celsius, transforming the land into a barren desert and depriving the oceans of oxygen. It is thought that 95% of all multicellular life perished in what scientists call the 'Great Dying' - the worst mass extinction in the history of the Earth. Our own proto-mammal ancestors, the dominant lifeforms on land, were almost destroyed, and it is a small miracle that we managed to survive and reclaim the Earth from the reptiles that replaced us."

Dr. Zimov paused.

"Currently, the Siberian permafrost contains vast quantities of methane, and this methane is starting to escape. Siberia is a time bomb. If we do not get these emissions under control, we may be facing another mass extinction. "

The three were silent.

"Let me get this straight: Your solution to this is to cut down much of the taiga and replace it with grassland?" asked the Professor. Dr. Zimov nodded.

"Yes. Ecosystem engineering. It seems like a daunting prospect, but humans have been unwittingly altering ecosystems for thousands of years. This time, I propose we do it for good, not for ill. I've seen many people speak of terraforming other planets to protect our species, but this strikes me as absurd. It would be far better to terraform our own planet first."

"Has the government expressed interest in this project?" asked Shabayev. Dr. Zimov scoffed.

"They see it as just a curiosity, not a necessity. To complete the work would require a trillion rubles of investment, and a hundred thousand willing hands. It would be an endeavor on the scale of the Great Patriotic War."

"A fitting metaphor for a battle for our very survival," remarked the Professor. Dr. Zimov nodded.

"Well, I suppose there's a lesson in this. Ingenuity and innovation is useless without the political will to make use of it. Thank you for your time, Dr. Zimov."

"My pleasure, Professor Shabayev!" replied Dr. Zimov.

One more destination to go.

 

[gutza1]

June 10, 2022
Kurchatov Square, Moscow

Professor Shabayev emerged from the taxi, trying to get his spirits up. He had never liked coming to Moscow. It was a city that made visitors feel miniscule in comparison. Its thoroughfares were constantly congested; its inhabitants possessed an unwelcoming attitude, seeming to both hate themselves and look down on those that did not live in it. In truth, that was a common complaint that provincials in many countries had about the citizens of their national capital. Russia was no different. Still, it was the economic and institutional heart of the nation, and Professor Shabayev had been invited to witness one part of that firsthand. He would not squander the opportunity.

He and Maxim found themselves standing at the entrance of a large complex of buildings on the outskirts of the city. Above the gate in front of them was a stylized atomic nucleus - beneath it, the words "National Research Center - Kurchatov Institute." This place had been at the forefront of the Soviet Union's scientific endeavours - first a secret laboratory for the development of nuclear weapons, then the premier institute for the development of civilian nuclear energy and what would eventually become the Russian internet. Even now, the name "Kurchatov" still carried great respect among those who loved progress.

A blond-haired, middle-aged woman interrupted the Professor's musings.

"I assume you are Professor Shabayev?" she inquired.

"Oh yes - Dr. Afrikantova, I presume?"

She nodded. "How was your journey?"

"Frustrating, unfortunately. But enough of that," replied the Professor.

"Yes. Please follow me. Remember not to touch anything and watch your step."

She lead them into a nearby building, past laboratories and offices. Eventually, they entered a small, darkened warehouse. Dr. Afrikantova switched on the lights, and the contents of the room came into view. Piles of mechanical components, stored haphazardly. In the center, a large metal pressure vessel, twice as tall as any of the people in the room.

"This, Professor Shabayev, is what remains of the prototype for a nuclear reactor that could have changed the world," began Dr. Afrikantova. "It was a joint project between Rosatom and international partners - the Americans, French, and Japanese. We called it the GT-MHR - 'Gas Turbine Modular Helium Reactor.' An experimental design, using uranium fuel pebbles and a helium gas coolant that would allow it to operate at temperatures of up to nine hundred and fifty degrees Celsius."

"Nine hundred and fifty degrees?" questioned the Professor. "What would you possibly need that high of a temperature for?"

"Oh, a reliable, emissions-free source of heat has many applications," replied Dr. Afrikantova. "But the application I was interested the most was the mass production of hydrogen. Currently, hydrogen is mass produced through two methods: either from methane through steam reforming, which has a heavy carbon footprint, or through the electrolysis of water, which is incredibly energy-intensive. But, at eight hundred and thirty degrees Celsius, it is possible to react water together with sulfur and iodine catalysts to produce hydrogen with no additional emissions."

"Impressive. But many people are skeptical of the viability of hydrogen-based technologies, Dr. Afrikantova," replied the Professor. "From what I've heard, the challenges of storing and transporting it make it impractical as a power source."

"I disagree. It seems to me that most of the discussion related to decarbonization revolves primary around replacements for power plants and vehicles. But there are many other sources of greenhouse gas emissions that are being ignored. For instance, one major source is central heating. It seems to me that the existing infrastructure for the distribution of natural gas could be converted to transport hydrogen, along with the water boilers fueled by them. In addition, hydrogen is a feedstock used to synthesize ammonia through the Haber process. Ammonia could in turn serve as a replacement for hydrocarbon fuels used by jet aircraft and heavy machinery that cannot be practically electrified."

She paused.

"There are many industrial processes such as steel production and metal refining that we currently do not have adequate solutions for decarbonizing. I think you have personally seen the environmental degradation that they produce. Hydrogen, ammonia, or high-temperature nuclear reactors could change that."

"That's-" Professor Shabayev stuttered. "-well, I never thought of that. But, if this design could change the world, why did it cease development?"

Dr. Afrikantova sighed.

"It's simple. We ran out of funding. For the past ten years, the government has run Rosatom like a private business, forcing it to cut costs in the name of profitability. Many of our research projects have been cancelled or delayed, and nuclear engineers such as myself fear that the atomic industry is turning into a mirror of its Western counterparts. It's a shame, too. Rosatom has developed a method of building reactor vessels on an assembly line, but this is also going to waste. Such an innovation could completely change the economics of nuclear power."

"Well, perhaps there's a good reason for that. We all know what happened when we became too cavalier with nuclear energy," suggested the Professor.

"Oh- we are not the same people that built the RMBK! These next-generation reactors are fundamentally safer than the old Soviet-era models - if we are making them cheaper, we are doing so by fundamentally changing the way we build them, not by cutting corners!" Dr. Afrikantova exclaimed. She took a moment to catch her breath.

"I understand that Chernobyl undermined the reputation of Russia's nuclear industry, but I am asking the Russian people to trust us for this. I honestly do not think we can achieve carbon neutrality without the extensive use of nuclear energy. Please, give us another chance."

Professor Shabayev nodded.

"An interesting proposition. Thank you for your time, Dr. Afrikantova."

 

[gutza1]

June 11, 2022
Phnom Penh, Cambodia

The meeting hall was filled with press and diplomats alike. The 2022 summit of ASEAN had just begun, and General-Secretary Lin went over the planned remarks in his head. Today, the wall of secrecy would come down on the first major foreign policy crisis his administration would face. He did not know how China's partners would receive it, let alone the rest of the world. He only hoped that the diplomatic overtures his administration had sent out to the member nations of ASEAN had been enough to soften the blow.

"I thank the Cambodians for their generosity in hosting our delegation," he began. "We are gathered here today in response to the escalating crisis in the Union of Myanmar. In the past few months, armed conflict between the Tatmadaw and the opposition government has spread to all major population centers. It is estimated that more than a million citizens of Myanmar have already been displaced, and the humanitarian situation is facing collapse. If unchecked, this crisis could destabilize Southeast Asia."

Now, for the bombshell.

"For that reason, I am announcing that the People's Republic of China will no longer remain neutral in the conflict. We officially acknowledge the legitimate mandate of the National Unity Government and pledge to collaborate with them to ensure the long-term stability of Myanmar. As of this moment, forces from the People's Liberation Army are en route to the Gulf of Martaban to uphold this mandate. We ask the members of ASEAN to assist in the stabilization and reconstruction of Myanmar, in the name of defending our common community of a shared future. That will be all."

The entire room exploded in uproar.

 

[gutza1]

Alright, that's it for Chapter 16. Apologies for how long this took - I've spent quite a while researching potential green technologies for this story, and I've also been busy with working on my health. I should start updating more consistently from here on out.

 

[cryptoam]

National Unity Government

Click to shrink...

Who are they?

 

[gutza1]

Who are they?

Click to shrink...

The government-in-exile of Myanmar that was deposed in the February coup attempt:

National Unity Government of Myanmar - Wikipedia

 

[gutza1]

June 17, 2022
02:13, 120 kilometers off the coast of Yangon

Captain Lai Zemin blinked drowsily as he monitored the instrumentation panels of his aircraft. Outside the window, the Gulf of Martaban stretched six kilometers beneath him and only faintly illuminated by moonlight. Occasionally, snippets of chatter from his wingmen came through his radio, all tense. Only two hours prior, he had been awoken from his bunk for a mission that the higher-ups said was of critical importance. They were to strike a series of anti-air batteries by the coast of Yangon that were impeding the efforts of the People's Liberation Army to establish a foothold in Myanmar's main port. According to their intelligence, this installation was currently under attack by the Burmese People's Defense Forces, providing a perfect opportunity to strike. Even then, the mission would be fraught with risk. The J-15 aircraft Captain Lai and his subordinates flew were not stealthy. The aircraft carrier that could support such craft was still undergoing sea trials, forcing the Navy to make do with its existing Soviet-derived fleet. With the Tatmadaw possessing an extensive network of anti-air defenses, launching an aerial strike was a fool's errand. Thus, the Army had been under orders to loiter out of range and limit itself to probing attacks until a satisfactory solution to the problem had emerged. Clearly, the situation among the top brass had changed. Why else would they be willing to risk the lives of their countrymen?

Captain Lai's radar was silent. No enemy planes, nor missiles. They had so far gone unnoticed. The Tatmadaw's anti-air defenses could only detect them within one hundred kilometers, and only target them within eighty. But the same went for their adversaries. For the squadron to be able to attack, they had to be seen.

"Steady. Hold your course," Captain Lai commanded. They had passed the hundred kilometer line. Ten seconds later, his plane sounded an alarm. Multiple radar sources detected, ninety-five kilometers away. Now was their chance. Captain Lai gave the order, and pulled the trigger. His plane and two of his wingmen fired two anti-radiation missiles each, the glare of their ramjet engines lighting up the darkness. Immediately, the squadron pitched to the right and dropped their speed, not wishing to approach any further. One tense minute passed as Captain Lai counted the passage of the missiles, the cockpit's warning sounding off in the background. Then, silence. The radar signatures disappeared. The attack had worked - the SAM batteries had been neutralized.

Right as Captain Lai prepared to order a retreat, his plane sounded the alarm again. Three unidentified radar sources. Seventy kilometers. Captain Lai swore.

"Evasive maneuvers!" he shouted to his wingmen. It was too late. Only five seconds later, his radar detected fifteen incoming missiles. Captain Lai fired up his afterburners and pitched his plane steeply upwards. The force pressed him into his seat as his squadron broke formation. The missiles approached faster than a kilometer per second. Fifty kilometers away, then forty, then thirty. They tracked upwards, following their targets despite their attempts to evade. As a last-ditch effort, Captain Lai deployed chaff when the missiles were ten kilometers away. It made no difference. Eight seconds later, his plane was torn apart by a near-direct hit beneath the cockpit. Captain Lai's remains would scatter into the Gulf of Martaban and his death would almost end China's intervention right then and there.

 

[cryptoam]

his death would almost end China's intervention right then and there.

Click to shrink...

They continued?

 

[gutza1]

June 17, 2022
02:54, Ministry of National Defense, Beijing

General-Secretary Lin glared at the reports he had just finished reading, having been woken up only half an hour before. Three pilots killed in an operation that he had explicitly ordered the People's Liberation Army not to launch. Three pilots, whose names would appear in every newspaper and countless posts on social media. Shot down by Chinese-built missiles, no less!

"General Xin, this is a disaster. The people were already skeptical of our intervention. Now, they will call for our blood."

He shook his head as General Xin Guiying of the Air Force stood grimly beside him.

"Can you confirm that neither you nor your subordinates ordered the attack?"

General Xin nodded.

"I stressed your orders repeatedly, General-Secretary. Rest assured, I will find the officer responsible for this debacle."

General-Secretary Lin nodded.

"Then, we must find a way to proceed. It is clear that conventional air strikes are far too risk-prone, especially with regards to the interior. I will not risk the lives of more airmen. Do you have any proposals?"

General Xin thought for a moment.

"General-Secretary, there is a plan I have been considering. We may not be able to safely launch aerial attacks from our carriers, but the Air Force has an untested tool in its arsenal that may prove useful."

"Continue," motioned the General-Secretary.

"At the moment, the Air Force has approximately three hundred attack drones at its disposal. Many of them able to be launched from Yunnan deep into Burmese territory."

"And proving to be easy targets for the Tatmadaw," countered Lin.

"Yes, if we used them to launch attacks against the Tatmadaw's air defenses, many of them would likely be destroyed. However, it does not matter. More of them can be built. The death of a pilot is a tragedy, but the loss of a drone is a statistic. No more of our blood needs to be shed, at least not until the amphibious forces make their landing at Yangon."

"Then our course of action becomes apparent," replied the General-Secretary. "You are authorized to begin drone strikes on Tatmadaw air defenses and fortified positions en masse. Do not disappoint me, General."

General Xin nodded.

"Your will be done."

 

[Scrivener]

China's becoming one of the first countries to fully adopt drone warfare as a war-winning strategy. The US is going to have to scramble to catch up.

 

[gutza1]

August 14, 2022
80 kilometers from Naypyitaw, Myanmar

Corporal Xi wiped the sweat from his forehead as he surveyed the nigh-endless foliage in front of him. Beside him waded a unit of militiamen from the People's Defense Forces... and a film crew, far out of their depth. He did not know why the brass had attached civilians to this operation. It had been a stroke of great luck that they had not been killed, and he still did not know what production could possibly be worth the risk. They were two kilometers off of the nearest road, wading through the depths of the Burmese jungle. Not that the roads had helped much. After decades of disinvestment, many of them were scarcely better than dirt tracks, and nigh-useless to the PLA. Keeping their forces supplied was a nightmare, even with the aid of the natives. Not a day went by without the Corporal wondering what China was even doing here, hundreds of kilometers away from its borders. Was the threat of refugees and regional destabilization truly worth it? Did Chinese troops deserve to bleed for the sake of half-barbarians? No, perhaps that was too harsh. The native Peoples' Defense Forces had fought admirably, displaying resilience Corporal Xi had not thought possible. That was more than could be said of the People's Liberation Army.

The initial landings had gone swimmingly. After the drone strikes had disabled the Tatmadaw's anti-air and anti-ship defenses, two Type-075 amphibious assault vessels had deployed the 125th Brigade to secure the port of Yangon with the aid of the People's Defense Forces. By the 4th of July, the People's Liberation Army had begun its march into Myanmar itself. It was then that the trouble started. The brass had known that Myanmar did not have the infrastructure to support the operations of a large army. They would instead deploy a limited ground force, to provide material support to the People's Defense Forces and engage hardened Tatmadaw positions that the rebels could not easily assault. By this strategy, the PLA had hoped to advance to the outskirts of the Burmese capital by the end of July. However, that had already been delayed by at least a month. Corporal Xi struggled to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

A militiaman of the PDF signaled the procession to halt in broken English. He peered over the rise in front of them. In the distance, by the side of the road they had bypassed, the barely-visible outline of a Tatmadaw bunker lay hidden. Corporal Xi suspected that more than a hundred of the enemy laid in the woods around it. They would have to proceed carefully. Corporal Xi motioned to the militiamen. He had grown to feel a strange sense of companionship with them over the past month. After all, the People's Liberation Army had once been an irregular guerilla hiding in the Xi'an hillside. Perhaps it was worth being reminded of their roots.

"I will signal the Air Force." Corporal Xi looked back. The militiamen nodded. The film crew retreated behind some ferns, then began shooting footage. The Corporal retrieved his radio, relaying the position of the bunker. Thirty minutes later, a barrage of missiles appeared from the sky, striking the entrenched Tatmadaw position with force that made the ground tremble even from their distance. Once the debris had subsided, Corporal Xi signaled a PDF scout to proceed.

He did not make it a hundred meters forward before a volley of machine gun fire forced him to retreat. The Tatmadaw would not give up so easily. It would take six grueling hours of probing attacks from the guerillas to eliminate the enemy, at the cost of twenty of their men. In the end, the road would be cleared, allowing a convoy of much-needed supplies to arrive. One fortress down, many more to go. In the evening, when the men set up camp, Corporal Xi approached the head cameraman. He appeared far less fazed than his subordinates. He did not fear gunfire nor landmine. Was he even a civilian, or only pretending to be one?

"Has today's footage been satisfactory?"

The cameraman nodded.

"I think my superiors will be pleased with the results. I believe the public will see the fruits of our efforts shortly," he replied.

"Very well. Now that you have been here with us for a while, do you wish to explain what this production of yours is?" asked Corporal Xi.

"All I can tell you is that the General-Secretary has taken a personal interest in it. He hopes it will help sway public opinion in the direction he desires. Is that enough, Corporal?"

The Corporal scoffed. "I doubt I shall get any further. Enjoy your rest."

They had a long day ahead of them.

 

[gutza1]

October 6, 2022
Naypyitaw, Myanmar

Surveying the endless rows of battered concrete buildings around him, Ambassador Yu felt a pit in his stomach. The siege of Naypyitaw had lasted an entire month, but for the soldiers, it felt like a decade. The entire city had been built like a fortress, its streets doubling as defensive barricades, its apartments doubling as bunkers. The natives had descended upon it with overwhelming furor, but even with the support of a mechanized army, the Tatmadaw held on. Shattering the official defensive lines had not been enough. The People's Defense Forces were forced to scour the city building by building to eliminate the enemy forces hidden with in them. In the end, it had taken the deaths of ten thousand partisans for the city to fall. Much of it had been reduced to a bombed-out husk, and from his vantage point, the Ambassador could spot children playing among the rubble. Had it been worth it? Only the following decades would tell.

The Ambassador was joined by the Myanmar's Foreign Minister, newly appointed by the fledging National Unity Government. Already, they were beginning to draft a new federal and democratic constitution for the Union of Myanmar that sought to remove the influence of the military from politics forever. Of course, he was concerned with more immediate tasks. A few minutes prior, the Foreign Minister had signed off on a reconstruction and investment program worth two hundred billion US dollars. With the gratitude of the Burmese secured, the People's Republic would be free to invest to its heart's content, with no Western interference in sight. In time, it would become another buckle on the New Silk Road. Perhaps this is why General-Secretary Lin had ordered the intervention. He needed this victory, to grant him the political capital to move on to greater tasks. In the end, the Ambassador still did not know what to make of it. All he could hope is that Myanmar would finally be free of ethnic unrest and political instability, the factors that had halted its development. A prosperous future could await, if the right decisions were made. And that was a victory enough.