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Lest the World Perish: A Timeline of the Near-Apocalypse

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Chapter 21.4
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    • April 7, 2023
    Novosibirsk, Russia

    Professor Shabayev stepped onto the makeshift platform that had been built for him just a day ago. In front of him was gathered a crowd of hundreds, loyal followers from all over the city - or even further beyond. The icy cold of winter had not fully abated, but the Professor paid it no heed. His announcement had already shocked the crowd, and he would attempt to direct their energies.

    "We have eight months until the emergency party congress in December to secure the nomination! I ask you not only to join the party, but to canvas with voters from all walks of life, in every settlement! We have much to do, but I believe that with your help, we can bring change to this country! Stand with me, stand with the people, stand for the future!"

    Cheers erupted among the crowd as he gave those final words. And for the first time in forever, Professor Shabayev had hope.
     
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    • Chapter 21 is complete. After taking some days off in winter vacation, I can report that I am feeling significantly more focused and motivated. Here's to a more productive 2022!
     
    Trying to take over the shell of the CPRF makes a lot more sense than what I assumed was going to be an independent run. Neat. Not sure how easy the party rules would make it for people to do a hostile takeover by joining though. Though the new members could argue they do intend to contribute and Shabayev's positions aren't really ideologically at odds with what the party is supposed to stand for.

    What I wonder about is the reaction of countries and leaders who have been relying on Russia, when it becomes clear a new government will want to appease the west to get rid of sanctions. Have you followed the recent news from Kazakhstan?

    Actually I also wonder about the west's willingness to do that. Ultimately, western governments don't give a damn about Crimeans, it's about geopolitics and Russia being a rival or threat. And being left wing again is not going to help with that image one bit.

    The CIA backing Putin would be hilariously ironic but not that surprising, in that light. Better the hostile dictator you know, and all that.
     
    Nyvis said:
    Trying to take over the shell of the CPRF makes a lot more sense than what I assumed was going to be an independent run. Neat. Not sure how easy the party rules would make it for people to do a hostile takeover by joining though. Though the new members could argue they do intend to contribute and Shabayev's positions aren't really ideologically at odds with what the party is supposed to stand for.

    What I wonder about is the reaction of countries and leaders who have been relying on Russia, when it becomes clear a new government will want to appease the west to get rid of sanctions. Have you followed the recent news from Kazakhstan?

    Actually I also wonder about the west's willingness to do that. Ultimately, western governments don't give a damn about Crimeans, it's about geopolitics and Russia being a rival or threat. And being left wing again is not going to help with that image one bit.

    The CIA backing Putin would be hilariously ironic but not that surprising, in that light. Better the hostile dictator you know, and all that.
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    Let's just say that Shabayev can't openly advertise that he wants to negotiate a deal with Crimea because the annexation is still overwhelmingly popular in Russia and attempting to undermine it would be a death sentence if not handled properly. The rest of the world doesn't know of his intentions in that regard. And for how it'll go, well, just wait and see.

    The part about the West rehabilitating Putin is on-point. Just wait until we get there.

    I've followed what's going on in Kazakhstan. While I sympathize with the protest movement and their desire to overthrow the government, it seems that the insurgents (because it's more than just a protest at this point) are completely uncoordinated and there's no proper opposition groups behind them. Under those circumstances it'll just putter out and get suppressed like the George Floyd protests. Russia's already sent the VDV in and I find it hard how the insurgents can fight back without organization.
     
    gutza1 said:
    Let's just say that Shabayev can't openly advertise that he wants to negotiate a deal with Crimea because the annexation is still overwhelmingly popular in Russia and attempting to undermine it would be a death sentence if not handled properly. The rest of the world doesn't know of his intentions in that regard. And for how it'll go, well, just wait and see.

    The part about the West rehabilitating Putin is on-point. Just wait until we get there.

    I've followed what's going on in Kazakhstan. While I sympathize with the protest movement and their desire to overthrow the government, it seems that the insurgents (because it's more than just a protest at this point) are completely uncoordinated and there's no proper opposition groups behind them. Under those circumstances it'll just putter out and get suppressed like the George Floyd protests. Russia's already sent the VDV in and I find it hard how the insurgents can fight back without organization.
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    I think even if it's suppressed, it will have done a lot more to shake up the government than American protests. Having to call on Russia is a clear demonstration of its impotence and it means that as soon as Russian troops try to leave, it could blow up again. If the protesters are smart, they'll go to ground rather than fight a direct engagement with trained and equipped troops. And since they're not very structured, there isn't one big organization to destroy when they do.
     
    Nyvis said:
    I think even if it's suppressed, it will have done a lot more to shake up the government than American protests. Having to call on Russia is a clear demonstration of its impotence and it means that as soon as Russian troops try to leave, it could blow up again. If the protesters are smart, they'll go to ground rather than fight a direct engagement with trained and equipped troops. And since they're not very structured, there isn't one big organization to destroy when they do.
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    Indeed. Christ it seems that the discontents of the rest of the world are far more based than us.

    Unfortunately, lacking any organization also makes it difficult to actually seize power, advance political goals, or offer a coherent alternative to the status quo.
     
    gutza1 said:
    Indeed. Christ it seems that the discontents of the rest of the world are far more based than us.

    Unfortunately, lacking any organization also makes it difficult to actually seize power, advance political goals, or offer a coherent alternative to the status quo.
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    I don't think they expected it to snowball that quickly, honestly. States often appear unbeatable until they collapse on you.

    But yeah it seems like it's a common truth of modern uprisings that they're far quicker to become dangerous than to become organized. Probably because breaking down organizations is easier than destroying spontaneous movements.

    I have my eyes on Chile, where most of the left wing political scene seem to have come back together during the protests, either emerging back into relevance or straight up building new organizations. I think it'll be a big indicator of whether that's good enough or not.
     
    Nyvis said:
    I don't think they expected it to snowball that quickly, honestly. States often appear unbeatable until they collapse on you.

    But yeah it seems like it's a common truth of modern uprisings that they're far quicker to become dangerous than to become organized. Probably because breaking down organizations is easier than destroying spontaneous movements.

    I have my eyes on Chile, where most of the left wing political scene seem to have come back together during the protests, either emerging back into relevance or straight up building new organizations. I think it'll be a big indicator of whether that's good enough or not.
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    I think South America in general is the last bastion of the organized political left, even if they can go astray at times (I wonder if Venezuela's current troubles could have been avoided if Chavez ran a more, and I hate to say this, Dengist policy of investing into infrastructure and industry to lessen Venezuela's dependence on oil exports). Definitely keep your eyes on it. Chile is especially interesting, considering they're about to rewrite their Pinochet-derived constitution.
     
    gutza1 said:
    I think South America in general is the last bastion of the organized political left, even if they can go astray at times (I wonder if Venezuela's current troubles could have been avoided if Chavez ran a more, and I hate to say this, Dengist policy of investing into infrastructure and industry to lessen Venezuela's dependence on oil exports). Definitely keep your eyes on it. Chile is especially interesting, considering they're about to rewrite their Pinochet-derived constitution.
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    The key to "dengism" isn't national investment though, it's foreign capital capture through offering your own workers to run an export economy. And I don't think Venezuela really had the setup to do that. Or the need, really.

    I think the much more applicable model is whatever you want to call the Bolivian MAS approach.
     
    Nyvis said:
    The key to "dengism" isn't national investment though, it's foreign capital capture through offering your own workers to run an export economy. And I don't think Venezuela really had the setup to do that. Or the need, really.

    I think the much more applicable model is whatever you want to call the Bolivian MAS approach.
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    ...Right, point. Yeah, I do think Bolivia has had quite a successful growth model that should be emulated by other resource-rich yet development-poor countries.
     
    gutza1 said:
    ...Right, point. Yeah, I do think Bolivia has had quite a successful growth model that should be emulated by other resource-rich yet development-poor countries.
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    Venezuela's internal divisions were also not nearly as bad as Bolivia's to my knowledge so I think it would have worked out all right. Alas, resource curse.
     
    Nyvis said:
    Venezuela's internal divisions were also not nearly as bad as Bolivia's to my knowledge so I think it would have worked out all right. Alas, resource curse.
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    From what I've heard of the Latin America dev team, Bolivia couldn't even be called a country until the 60s, as it had no national identity and half of it wanted to secede. It was an artificial construct created by Simon Bolivar.
     
    gutza1 said:
    From what I've heard of the Latin America dev team, Bolivia couldn't even be called a country until the 60s, as it had no national identity and half of it wanted to secede. It was an artificial construct created by Simon Bolivar.
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    Oh I'm pretty sure they still want to secede. Popular mobilization just kicked their teeth in though. They'd lose badly if they tried and that's probably the best way they could find to get the military to work with the lefties.
     
    Crimea is a hard task to negotiate though - do Crimeans consent to secede from Russia? Crimea benefits from subsidies from the Russian federal budget. In addition, most of the Crimean government defected to Russia during 2014, so Crimeans politicians may face persecution if Crimea were to be returned to Ukraine.
    Also, on the Russian side, no politicians would argue to release Crimea due to Crimea suffering from sunk cost fallacy: Russia has suffered politically and economically too much for the return of Crimea.
     
    trainvoi said:
    Crimea is a hard task to negotiate though - do Crimeans consent to secede from Russia? Crimea benefits from subsidies from the Russian federal budget. In addition, most of the Crimean government defected to Russia during 2014, so Crimeans politicians may face persecution if Crimea were to be returned to Ukraine.
    Also, on the Russian side, no politicians would argue to release Crimea due to Crimea suffering from sunk cost fallacy: Russia has suffered politically and economically too much for the return of Crimea.
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    These are exactly the issues Shabayev will have to consider. As for the outcome, you'll have to see.
     
    I like this TL because it contains a lot of future changes that are rarely implemented in future TLs, such as an internal coup against Putin or a communist revolution in Lebanon. I do have some criticism, however:
    - It is quite hard to visualize how devastating the economic recession/depression in China was. There was some scene of very large protests and dissatisfaction with the status quo, but most of the limelight was focused on the intrigue deep inside the Communist Party. Perhaps more scenes about the average Chinese?
    - Also, how did China just park a navy outside Myanmar without risking condemnation from other great powers (such as the US or EU)? And wh did China use the military option so easily before any prior escalation? Even prior to the 2003 Iraq War there was a massive media pro-war campaign to build up hype for the war.
    - Will there be more snippets about the US? Since the US's economy is the 1st largest, yet a large percentage of its population had slowly become poor as a result of stagnation wages, I want to see these contradictions explode into massive unrests and protests when American politics is seen to be incapable to solve the crisis of post-Covid recovery.
     
    trainvoi said:
    I like this TL because it contains a lot of future changes that are rarely implemented in future TLs, such as an internal coup against Putin or a communist revolution in Lebanon. I do have some criticism, however:
    - It is quite hard to visualize how devastating the economic recession/depression in China was. There was some scene of very large protests and dissatisfaction with the status quo, but most of the limelight was focused on the intrigue deep inside the Communist Party. Perhaps more scenes about the average Chinese?
    - Also, how did China just park a navy outside Myanmar without risking condemnation from other great powers (such as the US or EU)? And wh did China use the military option so easily before any prior escalation? Even prior to the 2003 Iraq War there was a massive media pro-war campaign to build up hype for the war.
    - Will there be more snippets about the US? Since the US's economy is the 1st largest, yet a large percentage of its population had slowly become poor as a result of stagnation wages, I want to see these contradictions explode into massive unrests and protests when American politics is seen to be incapable to solve the crisis of post-Covid recovery.
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    1. This is an issue I have myself. Unfortunately, I'm not satisfied with how the earlier chapters turned out. Keep in mind that what I'm posting is essentially a first draft of something I want to publish through Sea Lion Press. I'll definitely rework the beginning.
    2. One of the reasons why China had issues in Myanmar is that they couldn't park a massive navy, they had to make do with the minimum to provide air support. The quickness was justified because they're reacting to a civil war spiraling out of control. It's not a premediated invasion like the Iraq War was.
    3. In fact, a few US snippets are coming right away. A lot of the issues you describe will come to a head in 2024. Honestly, I feel like I got bogged down too much in unnecessary details in the start of the story.
     
    After considering @trainvoi 's comments further, I've decided that the next major update will not be a new chapter, but instead a rewrite of Chapter 3 that will replace a single incident at an Amazon warehouse with a more in-depth view of the United States as the long-anticipated 2020s COVID-induced recession finally begins as a result of China's financial crisis. It'll introduce some characters that will be more featured later. Unfortunately, a lot of the characters I conceived for the West only become relevant around 2024, making the early parts of LtWP feel very skewed towards an Eastern perspective. That is my fault.

    As another note, I also think that the "proper" version of this timeline will start in 2022 and have Lin's ascension to power in October 2022, which is when the next Congress of the CCP is scheduled to take place IRL. This way, I'll be able to further condense the events of Part 1 and make it feel less like a Paradox strategy game AAR - something one of my offline readers pointed out.
     
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    Flesh out the earlier American stuff with an "everyman" character who continues to show up and develop later, albeit in a more limited capacity. Something like a 7/11 cashier. It's an extra character to handle but their lack of agency in a story like this (the story happens *to* them) means it wouldn't be hard to juggle. Heck, if you're willing to DM me an outline of what the early 20s look like on your end, I could probably write it myself, though I'm a disabled NEET so I'd be likely to write from that perspective since it's what I know.
     
    SaintSummerisle said:
    Flesh out the earlier American stuff with an "everyman" character who continues to show up and develop later, albeit in a more limited capacity. Something like a 7/11 cashier. It's an extra character to handle but their lack of agency in a story like this (the story happens *to* them) means it wouldn't be hard to juggle. Heck, if you're willing to DM me an outline of what the early 20s look like on your end, I could probably write it myself, though I'm a disabled NEET so I'd be likely to write from that perspective since it's what I know.
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    I already had a character or two in mind but that sounds like an excellent idea! I'll bounce off a few ideas.

    I will point out that I've had my own encounter with poverty. Since I was a kid, my parents have risked their livelihood trying to bring green technologies to market, often ending in failure. When I was 10 years old, we were no longer able to afford rent, and had to move in with relatives, all while saddled with my mother's leftover debt from business school. The worst part was at the time I was suffering from increasingly severe health issues (the "long COVID before COVID" I mentioned earlier in the thread) but my family just couldn't afford to pay for treatment. It was only in the past few years that my parents, through a stroke of luck, were able to get a commercial hydroponics system working, and thus provide at least some financial security for my family (though my father, the chief engineer, often comes home with horror stories about the incompetent CEO and investors who actually run the company). Now, I have undergone some treatment, though we've had to turn to less conventional methods, because modern medicine is woefully behind on addressing immune system disorders.

    Despite having been saved from a life of poverty by pure luck, the experience of fearing for the future still haunts me to this day. In most timelines, my family could still be homeless. Unfortunately, your 7/11 cashier probably will have to work another job on the side in this shit economy.
     
    I really like this story. Admittedly I don't know much about internal Chinese / Russian politics but things seem plausible enough. I do know a few things about ecology. I'm a little skeptical of the Pleistocene ecoengineering initiative IRL. I also wonder how eastern Russia would feel about intentionally burning the taiga down lol.

    One small correction: the event being reacted to in November 2022 was the midterm elections, not Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday is a primary event in presidential election years.
     
    Persephone said:
    I really like this story. Admittedly I don't know much about internal Chinese / Russian politics but things seem plausible enough. I do know a few things about ecology. I'm a little skeptical of the Pleistocene ecoengineering initiative IRL. I also wonder how eastern Russia would feel about intentionally burning the taiga down lol.

    One small correction: the event being reacted to in November 2022 was the midterm elections, not Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday is a primary event in presidential election years.
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    They're not literally burning the entire taiga down. The science behind it is that grassland is better at sequestering carbon than taiga, not only because grass constantly has to regrow due to consumption by animals (remember, a tree is best at sequestering carbon when it is growing, unless you're talking about the giant ones in rainforests) but also due to grass-heavy topsoil allowing for more carbon to be stored underground. Still, there will be plenty of areas in Siberia that this terraforming will not be suited for. They're only planning to restore the historical extent of the mammoth steppe, a biome that disappeared from the Earth partially due to the actions of ancient humans.

    That's a stupid mistake, fixed.
     
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    gutza1 said:
    They're not literally burning the entire taiga down. The science behind it is that grassland is better at sequestering carbon than taiga, not only because grass constantly has to regrow due to consumption by animals (remember, a tree is best at sequestering carbon when it is growing, unless you're talking about the giant ones in rainforests) but also due to grass-heavy topsoil allowing for more carbon to be stored underground. Still, there will be plenty of areas in Siberia that this terraforming will not be suited for. They're only planning to restore the historical extent of the mammoth steppe, a biome that disappeared from the Earth partially due to the actions of ancient humans.

    That's a stupid mistake, fixed.
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    It'd be better if the trees were cut and the wood used somewhere to keep its carbon sequestrated wouldn't it. I think there's some potential in forestry and wood building as carbon sequestration methods.
     
    Huh. What hoofstock are they using for this since none of the remaining elephants are suitable and afaik mastodon cloning won't be viable in a short enough timeframe. Wild Bactrian camels, horses, saiga, and wisent are all rare enough that mass reintroduction wouldn't be easy. I guess takin and American bison work for northern grasslands. And the domesticated Bactrian camel is still suitable. Maybe guanacos…

    Huh. Might end up doing my own research lol.
     
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