Guns, Germs, and Good Intentions - American Indian Reservations ISOTed to 1418

This is a bit of a minor question, but Wikipedia lists a good number of reservations that have no people living in them (I'm guessing it's trust land and the like), but did those get ISOTed as well along with the populated reservations?
 
This is a bit of a minor question, but Wikipedia lists a good number of reservations that have no people living in them (I'm guessing it's trust land and the like), but did those get ISOTed as well along with the populated reservations?

Yep. It's usually totally useless land, so it'll remain uninhabited, probably only a few local people will even notice what happened.
 
Great discussion, just as a general response to some points:

Essentially, the translocation created a timeline that branched off from our own. If you like, you can even imagine that the reservations were copied and pasted into the past rather than actually disappearing from our present day. I don't have a "unified setting" but if I did it would contain hundreds of parallel universes.

As for the question of contact, I'm not a butterfly purist. If I was, then the change in land area covered by crops and the emissions from new industries in the New World would change weather patterns, ensuring that even in the Old World people's births, deaths, and livelihoods could be changed subtly.

However, for the purposes of this story, Columbus will still be born in 1951, still go to sea for a living, and still gain employment with the Spanish Empire to seek a westward route to the Indies. That said...

The reservations certainly believe something Should Be Done about Columbus when he arrives, and until then contact with Europe should not be made. However, the 15th Century Natives may not be so convinced of the necessity of doing so, and finding ways to prevent them from breaking the quarantine will factor into Federation politics in the future. Remember that by the time Columbus does arrive, the youngest people who remember life before the translocation will be in their nineties (and there won't be very many of them). The role European contact played on the Natives in our history will be impressed on the Federation's future generations through schooling and history books, but this itself factors into views about the translocation and how that will change over time.

Safe to say, it will be regarded as a historic fact by the well-informed - there's too much physical evidence, too much documentation, and its the only reasonable explanation for the history of this timeline. A rather different matter is what it means practically, how important it is to people's decisions, and whether it's actually relevant anymore...that will vary from person to person.
One question that maybe I missed when checking past posts. Do the ISOTed people do even know the date? They might think that Columbus is a century or more away from happening or that he came and went without being seen. In that sense the perception of time will have an effect on the future policy regarding Europe.
 
One question that maybe I missed when checking past posts. Do the ISOTed people do even know the date? They might think that Columbus is a century or more away from happening or that he came and went without being seen. In that sense the perception of time will have an effect on the future policy regarding Europe.

It hasn't been mentioned yet, but there's an observatory on the Tohono O'odham Reservation, by cross-checking the locations of the stars with their records they'll eventually nail down the year.
 
The reservations certainly believe something Should Be Done about Columbus when he arrives, and until then contact with Europe should not be made. However, the 15th Century Natives may not be so convinced of the necessity of doing so, and finding ways to prevent them from breaking the quarantine will factor into Federation politics in the future. Remember that by the time Columbus does arrive, the youngest people who remember life before the translocation will be in their nineties (and there won't be very many of them). The role European contact played on the Natives in our history will be impressed on the Federation's future generations through schooling and history books, but this itself factors into views about the translocation and how that will change over time.
I'd think a big deciding factor on whether or not the Federation contacts Europe depends on just how well populated the Americas become, because if by the time Columbus arrives America is still sparsely populated with large tracts of unused land it would kind of be playing with fire to contact Europe. At that time many kingdoms in Europe were pretty desperate to expand, so even if they know the Federation is advanced and could easily kick their ass they may decide that it's easier to ask for forgiveness then it is for permission and just send out colony expeditions anyway.

I mean, not that most of them would succeed, but you know. Its still a possibility.

Personally though I'm more interested in what's going to happen when the Federation starts contacting the more local powers like the Inca and whether or not their presence will cause new powers to rise up as well.
 
Yep. It's usually totally useless land, so it'll remain uninhabited, probably only a few local people will even notice what happened.

...Don't these areas potentially have invasive fauna, though? There's an enormous number of plant and animal species that were introduced by the Europeans to the point where many native American plants were displaced by the Columbian Exchange. Even basic things like bees.

That said, of course, this applies just as well to other reservations.

I'd think a big deciding factor on whether or not the Federation contacts Europe depends on just how well populated the Americas become, because if by the time Columbus arrives America is still sparsely populated with large tracts of unused land it would kind of be playing with fire to contact Europe. At that time many kingdoms in Europe were pretty desperate to expand, so even if they know the Federation is advanced and could easily kick their ass they may decide that it's easier to ask for forgiveness then it is for permission and just send out colony expeditions anyway.

How sparsely populated we talking? Most of the real depopulation happened after the Columbian Exchange. In 1600 before the diseases hit much of the Eastern Seaboard there was still a huge amount of canoe traffic in the Chesapeake and across the Atlantic coast. Spanish and French sailing ships reported giant canoes of 100 people or more trading goods.
 
How sparsely populated we talking? Most of the real depopulation happened after the Columbian Exchange. In 1600 before the diseases hit much of the Eastern Seaboard there was still a huge amount of canoe traffic in the Chesapeake and across the Atlantic coast. Spanish and French sailing ships reported giant canoes of 100 people or more trading goods.

I just covered this with my students a few weeks ago. In 1500 there were 112 million people in modern-day Mexico and Central America- more than the mere 78 million people of Europe. The future United States and Canada had 15 million inhabitants, more thinly peopled but still similar to the population of France. The post-ISOT plagues will bring the population down, but not by that much. And even crude modern medicine and farming techniques will lead to a population explosion.

I would like to cast my vote in favor of the Federation contacting Europe first- it's better that contact happen on their terms. Makes it more controllable.
 
How sparsely populated we talking? Most of the real depopulation happened after the Columbian Exchange. In 1600 before the diseases hit much of the Eastern Seaboard there was still a huge amount of canoe traffic in the Chesapeake and across the Atlantic coast. Spanish and French sailing ships reported giant canoes of 100 people or more trading goods.
I do believe that diseases still hit the local population? So the area may already be empty. But.....

The post-ISOT plagues will bring the population down, but not by that much. And even crude modern medicine and farming techniques will lead to a population explosion.
.....then again I had been forgetting the fact that the Federation will be bringing in a large amount of population expanding technologies, so it may not matter.
 
There will be declined population, but the impact of a decline is not linear. At a certain point population collapse begets a total reordering of the environment and society, but that point was not really reached.
 
Stop: Genocide Apologia is not welcome on SV
genocide apologia is not welcome on sv
@Warlord D Thoran SV Content such as the video you posted and endorsed is not welcome on SV.

SV is meant to be a welcoming community. The video you posted is the exact opposite of that to Native Americans. It is offensive to the extreme, starting out with genocide-denial, going over to "White Settlers did nothing wrong" and later on outright implying that the Natives 'had it coming for their violent ways'.

We do not want such content on this board.

Your post has been removed. You have been issued an infraction for 50 points and your ability to reply to this thread revoked for the next 3 days.
 
One concern I have is truly modern epidemics. AIDS could be a colossal issue in a world without condoms. And the threat isn't limited to North American native inhabitants.
 
I am really interested in what is going to go on with the Mississippian cultures. You have a large number of chalcolithic city states with the only medium to large sized reservations existing on the peripheral edges of the culture and some postage stamp sized ones scattered in the core areas. Also the 'American' exchange of old world crops would do a lot to halt the Little Ice Age caused collapse they underwent in the 15th century.
 
One concern I have is truly modern epidemics. AIDS could be a colossal issue in a world without condoms. And the threat isn't limited to North American native inhabitants.
And the worst part is that without support of modern labs there is no way of knowing who got it before the symptoms became obvious, at which point any quarantine is going to be superfluous since it will have infected entire populations.
 
One concern I have is truly modern epidemics. AIDS could be a colossal issue in a world without condoms. And the threat isn't limited to North American native inhabitants.

I've crunched the numbers on this.

39,782 Native Americans and Alaskan Natives had HIV diagnoses as of 2016, however 78% of Native Americans live outside reservations. If we assume HIV is evenly distributed (it probably isn't, but let's assume) then there are about 8,000 people with HIV in the world after the translocation. That's a pretty manageable number I would say, as long as the reservation governments and medical institutions knew what they were doing. Hell, it could burn itself out once the medicine runs out, which would be tragic, though otherwise it has the potential to become a serious health crisis down the line.

Either way, I'll be addressing it eventually but feel free to keep guessing.
 
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I've crunched the numbers on this.

39,782 Native Americans and Alaskan Natives had HIV diagnoses as of 2016, however 78% of Native Americans live outside reservations. If we assume HIV is evenly distributed (it probably isn't, but let's assume) then there are about 8,000 people with HIV in the world after the translocation. That's a pretty manageable number I would say, as long as the reservation governments and medical institutions knew what they were doing. Hell, it could burn itself out once the medicine runs out, which would he tragic, though otherwise it has the potential to become a serious health crisis down the line.

Either way, I'll be addressing it eventually but feel free to keep guessing.

This would require every reservation doing the right thing, even the ones collapsing because of their size or lack of resources. And no one having HIV and not knowing about it, or lying about it. A lot of people people carrying HIV have no symptoms and that's why it's so dangerous in that situation.
 
I was about to ask about how the Isabella Reservation is handling things, because they're the largest in my area and Central Michigan University is right there, but then I checked a map and apparently CMU is less than a mile outside the rez borders. It's not one of the state's top-tier schools - that list is really just UoM and MSU - but it's still second-rank and a major loss for the ISOTted populations.

How soon do you plan on covering the Great Lakes and Desert Southwest regions?
 
I was about to ask about how the Isabella Reservation is handling things, because they're the largest in my area and Central Michigan University is right there, but then I checked a map and apparently CMU is less than a mile outside the rez borders. It's not one of the state's top-tier schools - that list is really just UoM and MSU - but it's still second-rank and a major loss for the ISOTted populations.

How soon do you plan on covering the Great Lakes and Desert Southwest regions?

Great Lakes is tonight, hopefully!
 
I've crunched the numbers on this.

39,782 Native Americans and Alaskan Natives had HIV diagnoses as of 2016, however 78% of Native Americans live outside reservations. If we assume HIV is evenly distributed (it probably isn't, but let's assume) then there are about 8,000 people with HIV in the world after the translocation. That's a pretty manageable number I would say, as long as the reservation governments and medical institutions knew what they were doing. Hell, it could burn itself out once the medicine runs out, which would he tragic, though otherwise it has the potential to become a serious health crisis down the line.

Either way, I'll be addressing it eventually but feel free to keep guessing.
This would require every reservation doing the right thing, even the ones collapsing because of their size or lack of resources. And no one having HIV and not knowing about it, or lying about it. A lot of people people carrying HIV have no symptoms and that's why it's so dangerous in that situation.
The lack of modern medicaments and the suspension of doctor/patient confidentiality laws will make tracking Bloody Marys easier in the regions with large reservations since promiscuos people will get every STD under the sun and I bet that when that happens the authorities are going to hang whoever is found guilty of trying to cause a pandemic. That plus the already agressive quarantine measures will prevent the worse of the disease from spreading too far. Hopefully in less developed areas the geographic and social isolation will limit the damage to a few villages.
 
The lack of modern medicaments and the suspension of doctor/patient confidentiality laws will make tracking Bloody Marys easier in the regions with large reservations since promiscuos people will get every STD under the sun and I bet that when that happens the authorities are going to hang whoever is found guilty of trying to cause a pandemic. That plus the already agressive quarantine measures will prevent the worse of the disease from spreading too far. Hopefully in less developed areas the geographic and social isolation will limit the damage to a few villages.

Again, AIDS isn't like other STDs. Most people do not know they have it until later, and it has a long period with no symptoms. It just takes a few failing reservations not being able to maintain quarantine for it to get out. And isolation isn't really a thing. As people said earlier, North America had very developed trade routes.
 
Hopefully in less developed areas the geographic and social isolation will limit the damage to a few villages.
And isolation isn't really a thing. As people said earlier, North America had very developed trade routes.

Yeah, its important to remember that by the time Europeans were showing up in force, the Americas were very literally post-apocalyptic. Even as early as Cortez, when he arrived the Aztecs were already reeling from early-onset plague-induced societal breakdown. Estimates for plague casualties alone across the two continents range as high as 99%.

Judging precolumbian Native Americans based on what postcolumbian Native Americans were like is like judging modern New York based on the movie I am Legend.
 
If I had to hazard a guess as to how European contact would go, there will be a brief period of conflict as the Europeans try to colonize as they did OTL.
Will there even be an attempt at colonization? Weren't most of them opotunisnstic, usually, the first contact were explorers or traders if they report back a strong tech advanced civilization I doubt the same colonization efforts would be launched. Might be a lot more missionaries and traders though.
 
You'd probably still have people leaving Europe for greener pastures, even if not for a government sponsored colony.

Especially if religious freedom is guaranteed. You probably won't have the Pilgrims, but there will undoubtedly be some sort of persecuted minority.
 
the Great Lakes
Chapter 6: The First Contact Period in the Great Lakes

The modern states of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin contain dozens of reservations, most of them belonging to tribes of Ojibwe (also called the Chippewa). In the 15th Century, the Ojibwe, along with the Odawa and Potawatomi, were members of the Council of Three Fires, a multi-tribal confederation much like the Haudenosaunee, which was in fact their predominant rival. In the 15th Century, that area was also inhabited by multiple Siouan-speaking peoples, as it would only be due to later westward migrations that the Sioux people would be forced onto the Great Plains.

Most reservations were small, each typically containing only a small town (or perhaps two to four towns) and some adjoining farmland, with a few being completely uninhabited. However, the Oneida Reservation contained part of the city of Green Bay, Wisconsin, and with it a technical college, a public library, a concrete plant, a hospital, and an international airport, among other facilities. In addition, the Wisconsin reservations were members of the Great Lakes Inter-Tribal Council, which had its headquarters on the Lac du Flambeau Reservation, and the equivalent Michigan Inter-Tribal Council had its headquarters on the Saulte Ste Marie Reservation.

After the translocation, as the Great Lakes reservations contacted each other and the 15th Century tribes, a joint delegation of Ojibwe, Odawa, and Potawatomi from the reservations approached the Council of Three Fires, which had its capital at Michilimackinac, on the straits between Lake Huron and Lake Michigan. As in other regions, they gave a general explanation of the translocation (as the reservation tribes understood it), a warning of the threat of disease and an offer to help, and some information on the dangers the future held.

The smaller reservations were able to survive well enough on their own, but with the leadership and resources of Green Bay they could be used as regional headquarters to begin the modernization of the region. With the leadership of the Council of Three Fires coordinating these efforts, roads were built between settlements and medical depots were established. As in the Pacific Northwest, apprenticeship programs were created to teach 15th Century tribes advanced skills. As tools and technology filtered down from Green Bay, the small towns of many reservations grew into large towns, perhaps even what could be considered small cities by the standards of the time. Michilimackinac was itself built up into a proper city, intended to be an administration center for the confederation – many of the "surplus" population of Green Bay migrated there to help in the building and stayed afterwards as permanent residents, while the town attracted its share of permanent migrants who wished to be close to modern services and to the center of government. Later, a railroad was established to link Green Bay with the Great Plains nations.

Naturally, travel by water was quicker than travel by land, and larger boats, first powered by sail and later by steam, plied the Great Lakes and the rivers that fed them. However, disease often moved quicker than medical personnel or supplies, and the dieoff was harder inland or in areas outside the Council of Three Fire's control. Disease also filtered in from the south and east along trade routes, which led the Council, at Green Bay's advice, to halt trade until they felt the epidemics could be contained.

This cooperation would not last forever, and Great Lakes region eventually faced a political crisis. The leadership of the Council of Three Fires had assumed, perhaps reasonably given the attitudes of the reservation tribes, that the modern Ojibwe, Odawa, and Potawatomi would be joining the Council and merging politically. However, some began to see the modern tribes as an internal threat.

Even before the founding of the Federation, a pan-Indian identity had been taken up by the majority of the reservations. A general assumption of mutual cooperation, alliance, and friendship was held by most tribal governments, regardless of 15th Century grudges – these were more or less smoothed over in the face of a "common enemy". However, to the Council of Three Fires, the modernization and subsequent expansion of the Haudenosaunee, their traditional rivals, posed an existential threat, and attempts by the reservation governments to convince them otherwise were unwelcome. Negotiations for the reservations to join the Council halted entirely as relations cooled.

Without reservation knowledge, the tribes of the Great Lakes threatened to fall behind their neighbors, and many feared the return of disease as well. And yet, Council leadership began to view the reservations as a potential fifth column, people who would stand aside or even aid invaders. Attention began to be drawn to the differences the reservation tribes had with the Council: they followed different religions, they could not all speak Ojibwe, some of them looked different - many were not even Native American.

However, it was too late for either side to back out. The reservations existed as pockets within Council territory, and they had become inextricably tied to their neighbors economically. Several heated arguments, at least one fistfight between diplomats, and a riot in Michilimackinac later, and it became clear that the situation was untenable. It was claimed afterwards by the new government that cooler heads had prevailed, but in reality, a "soft coup" took place in 1428 which allowed the reservation governments to force a seat at the table. The reservations had more advanced weaponry (if not precisely more people), effective control of both Green Bay and Michilimackinac, and, crucially, the support of swathes of the countryside where modern intervention had saved lives and improved livelihoods. After the Michilimackinac Riot, the city's small garrison, mostly recruited from the reservations, placed the capital under martial law, and over the next month the Council of Three Fires leadership were essentially forced to the negotiating table.

With representatives in all three member tribes, the reservations were able to effectively control the Council of Three Fires. They sent diplomatic overtures to the Haudenosaunee, expanded industry and infrastructure around the Great Lakes, extended citizenship (if not representation) to white Americans, and effectively transformed the Council into a true government with a constitution. Green Bay became the first true industrial center on the continent, with Michilimackinac promising to follow.

The events of 1428 were extremely controversial. The Haudenosaunee did not take a particular stance, but the new government faced criticism from the Great Plains reservations, some of whom considered taking more direct action. Over the next few years, three representatives were assassinated, two of them from the reservations. The anti-reservation faction would eventually lose ground, as modern technology raised the standard of living. Older members of the Council retired or died off and were replaced with younger members who had different views on the reservations. There were two attempts at "secession" as individual bands attempted to withdraw from the Council, but these were dealt with by the Council's military forces. This did not help relations with other tribal governments, and a multilateral summit was held to address the concerns. The Council of Three Fires (in reality, reservation representatives) argued that their actions had been justified, and while many did not accept this the Council was recognized as a legitimate government. However, the summit raised concerns about actual rogue states that could arise on the continent in the future.
 
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