Clown Academy (Mafia)

Am I wrong that Kuma is and has been extremely suspicious?

In all fairness, you are not wrong. It is just that we are more suspicious of you.

Also, Cyricubed was scum. They posted watcher results that were confirmed by a non-scum poster. So, did they 50/50 guess for no reason? Or were they an actual scum tracker? I'm inclined to believe the latter, and that places you as a nighttime visitor, Dovah.

I also want to point out that while Cyric flipped as mafia, I do believe their claim or at least I believe that Cyric believed that Dovah was the serial killer. I don't know if Cyric was a scum tracker or they didn't actually know that Dovah was the serial killer and just basing their claim off of Dovah surviving their nightkill. I think that Cyric was basing their claim off of Dovah flipping as serial killer and since the serial killer pied Usili, correctly claiming that the serial killer visited Usili would lend some credence to Cyric's claim of being a tracker and to a lesser degree, their claim of being a town tracker.

So while Cyric was mafia, I don't believe they were lying about Dovah being the serial killer. Getting rid of Dovah would have gotten rid of a threat to them whilst also giving them some town credit by being consisted with their claim. Given we have had town power roles like Doctor, Cop and Jailer alongside a serial killer, I am inclined to believe that Cyric was a scum tracker to identify those people for the roleblocker and for getting pied especially since they made a claim about a living town member not visiting anyone.
 
And I'm not surprised that Kuma is being more active now. Town has been repeatedly pushing him to be active and vote these last couple of days while we haven't previously been doing so.

While being inactive is suspect and potentially scum trying to fly under the radar, Kuma's inactivity strikes me more as just being inactive. They have been cautious and wary of going after anyone when they do post as if they haven't been paying attention to the latest events, at least not in detail.

Now they are being more active, but it is because of other posters (mainly me) pushing them to be so. I've been telling Kuma that as town, he needs to vote for the right people or town loses.
 
If it comes to day 9 I'm going to have a devil of a time finding the actual surviving scum at this rate... and convincing everyone else who they are too. I kinda wish I actually was scum, I'd like to be one at least once before I run my own game for the experience and knowing what that viewpoint is like.
 
I didn't say tota wasn't scum. I'm just saying that if happery or tota get nightkilled or something and were town then that throws a wrench into the plan. I'm still cautious but the general consensus seems to be good.
 
Ah, well. Worth a try. Doesn't look like it's going anywhere, and unfortunately I can't just bite my tongue and ride out the Day or I get lynched again toMorrow.

So here's the thing. I am the Serial Killer. Or, well, Serial Pier / Grimpier (apparently Grimper is "to climb" in French, but it's not much of a pun). My name is clowny, no Norse gods or real silliness there. I'm very grim about everything, apparently.

I know, shocking, isn't it. Never would've thought I would be the serial killer, right? Yeah.

So, I can't ... actually win, at this point, which is why it's OK for me to do this wincon-wise. I'm lynchproof, but it doesn't help me right now, because it just means the Mafia win anyway. So I want to offer you (that is, Town) a deal.

You lynch Totadileplayz, I kill Happerry, you lynch me (unfortunately).

I was going to say yesterday something about only being motivated by victory or vengeance. It's an incredibly scummy thing to say, but it's true. I will end the scum team for costing me victory, but I can't do that without Town's help.

You (that is, Oshha) appealed to my chance of sportsmanship. Well, the only fair fight is one where there's no chance of me losing (also couldn't really risk Absum being Jailer or Maf so *shrug*). But now I appeal to yours. If the Day ends with the lynch vote on me, I probably lose (it costs me my Nightproof :ogles: bring it Maf, you lose anyway), and Town definitely loses, because I will kill Town, and then you're 2v2 or 1v2v1, neither of which is exactly a winning situation. If the Day ends with the lynch vote not on me, I will kill Maf in vengeance for Cyric's revealing me, and then you will be 3v1 and can lynch me at your pleasure. And just in case you doubt me, 2v1v1 doesn't actually work out better for me, so yes, I can't win by betraying Town.

Work with me or die.
 
Ah, well. Worth a try. Doesn't look like it's going anywhere, and unfortunately I can't just bite my tongue and ride out the Day or I get lynched again toMorrow.

So here's the thing. I am the Serial Killer. Or, well, Serial Pier / Grimpier (apparently Grimper is "to climb" in French, but it's not much of a pun). My name is clowny, no Norse gods or real silliness there. I'm very grim about everything, apparently.

I know, shocking, isn't it. Never would've thought I would be the serial killer, right? Yeah.

So, I can't ... actually win, at this point, which is why it's OK for me to do this wincon-wise. I'm lynchproof, but it doesn't help me right now, because it just means the Mafia win anyway. So I want to offer you (that is, Town) a deal.

You lynch Totadileplayz, I kill Happerry, you lynch me (unfortunately).

I was going to say yesterday something about only being motivated by victory or vengeance. It's an incredibly scummy thing to say, but it's true. I will end the scum team for costing me victory, but I can't do that without Town's help.

You (that is, Oshha) appealed to my chance of sportsmanship. Well, the only fair fight is one where there's no chance of me losing (also couldn't really risk Absum being Jailer or Maf so *shrug*). But now I appeal to yours. If the Day ends with the lynch vote on me, I probably lose (it costs me my Nightproof :ogles: bring it Maf, you lose anyway), and Town definitely loses, because I will kill Town, and then you're 2v2 or 1v2v1, neither of which is exactly a winning situation. If the Day ends with the lynch vote not on me, I will kill Maf in vengeance for Cyric's revealing me, and then you will be 3v1 and can lynch me at your pleasure. And just in case you doubt me, 2v1v1 doesn't actually work out better for me, so yes, I can't win by betraying Town.

Work with me or die.
Unfortunately. Town doesn't need your help. and the way you've just spoken about your power makes it so that you need to be lynched and nightkilled subsequently which means that they still need to lynch you before the wolves. or else they lose. If Mafia does have 2 mafia they still can't win at this point, if you don't die.

4v2v1
3v2 start of next day
2 v 1 start of day after. Town wins.

Alternatively. if there's only one mafia they still need to lynch you, because they need the wolves to help take you down. So, no there's no reason not to vote for you.
 
@Dovah I want to check one thing first before I weight in on what Town should do. I'm sure you checked privately with Terrabrand to make sure it is okay before making your post, but I want to check with Terrabrand that your post is allowed under the rules.
 
Okay Dovah, if I get this right, you are the serial killer and night kill immunity plus one-shot lynch immunity which once it is used, it costs you your night kill immunity as well. Therefore if we lynch you today, you don't get killed, but you do get killed if you are lynched a second time.

And the reason you are offering this deal to town is that because mafia tried to night kill you again last night instead of killing another town member, the game is now unwinnable for you since you have been unable to shake the lynch on you today?
 
Okay.

Dovah loses his lynch immunity today so while he lives, he is open to future lynches and mafia attacks.

I'm going to see what the outcomes where if Mafia had targeted town rather than Dovah last night. I'm assuming that mafia has two members left right now and town has no surviving jailer.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: 1 Town pied. 1 Mafia pied. (2v1v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v0v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. (1v0v1)
Day 9: Dovah wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (1v2v1)
Day 8: Town is lynched. Mafia might win. (0v2v1)
Night 8: Dovah is pied. 1 Mafia pied. (0v1v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (1v2v1)
Day 8: Dovah is lynched. Mafia wins. (1v2v0)

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: 1 Town pied. 1 Mafia pied. (2v1v1)
Day 8: Town is lynched (1v1v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. (0v1v1)
Day 9: Dovah might win if they don't have to survive.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: 1 Town pied. 1 Mafia pied. (2v1v1)
Day 8: Dovah is lynched (2v1v0)
Night 8: Town is pied. (1v1v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: Dovah is pied. 1 Mafia pied. (3v1v0)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched. Town wins. (3v0v0)

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: Dovah is pied. 1 Mafia pied. (3v1v0)
Day 8: Town is lynched. (2v1v0)
Night 8: 1 Town pied. (1v1v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 2 Town pied. (3v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (3v2v1)
Night 7: Dovah is pied. 1 Mafia pied. (3v1v0)
Day 8: Town is lynched. (2v1v0)
Night 8: 1 Town pied. (1v1v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

I haven't looked at all of them, but I can see Dovah haven't a shot at winning if mafia had targeted town instead of them last night.

Now to see what happens if we lynch Dovah today and things play out as he claimed.
Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Dovah is lynched (2v2v0)
Night 8: Town is pied. (1v2v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Town is lynched (1v2v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. Dovah is pied. (0v2v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. Dovah is pied. (1v2v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: 2 Town is pied. (0v1v1)
Day 9: Dovah might win if they don't have to survive.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. (1v1v1)
Day 9: Mafia is lynched. Dovah wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. (1v1v1)
Day 9: Town is lynched. Dovah might win if they don't have to survive.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. (1v1v1)
Day 9: Dovah is lynched. Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. Dovah is pied (1v1v0)
Day 9: Mafia wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: Town is pied. Mafia is pied (1v0v1)
Day 9: Dovah wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Dovah is lynched. (4v2v1)
Night 7: 2 Town pied. (2v2v1)
Day 8: Mafia is lynched (2v1v1)
Night 8: Dovah is pied. Mafia is pied (2v0v0)
Day 9: Town wins.

More examples, but it doesn't look good for town. A toss up for mafia and town, but Dovah doesn't win unless both Town and Mafia chose not to pie him.

Now if we take Dovah's deal and he upholds it.
Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Tota/Mafia is lynched. (4v1v1)
Night 7: 1 Town pied. Happ/Mafia is pied. (3v0v1)
Day 8: Dovah is lynched. Town wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (5v2v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (4v2v1)
Day 7: Tota/Mafia is lynched. (4v1v1)
Night 7: Dovah is pied. Happ/Mafia is pied. Town wins.

And it gets even better for town if Tota is the sole remaining mafia.
Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (6v1v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (5v1v1)
Day 7: Tota/Mafia is lynched. (5v0v1)
Night 7: Happ/Town is pied. (4v0v1)
Day 8: Dovah is lynched. Town wins.

Day 6: Mafia is lynched. (6v1v1)
Night 6: 1 Town pied. (5v1v1)
Day 7: Tota/Mafia is lynched. (5v0v1)
Night 7: Town is pied. (4v0v1)
Day 8: Dovah is lynched. Town wins.

Now if we are wrong about Tota and Happ being mafia, things go poorly, but we got to take some risks.

I got bed now so if someone wants to weight in, I think Dovah's deal might be best for town providing he upholds it. Thanks to mafia targeting Dovah last night and Dovah being unable to shake the lynch, I believe he is unable to win as the serial killer and either give the game to Town or make it much harder for town.

@BanTheFairyKing @TheMaskedReader Your thoughts on all this? If we take Dovah's kingmaking and he upholds his word, Town can take this. If Dovah breaks his word, you need to lynch Dovah to make him lose for backstabbing us (provided scum doesn't lynch him).
 
No, wait, I forgot to consider what happens when Dovah doesn't 'die' the first time he is lynched. Too late so I'll look at it tomorrow if no one else runs the numbers.
 
Well, my first instinct is that Dovah's lying to save his skin. This is a low power game, supposedly. Earlier Dovah was arguing that NK immunity was too much for the game, and now he says he's got a 1 time Lynch immunity as well?

That feels... Improbable.

If we do lynch and then he and Mafia both kill different town, then yeah, we've lost. But this will be his second time talking his way out of a lynch if we believe him, and his claim is pretty outrageous atm.

I honestly think our best strategy is to maintain course.

If we listen to him and somehow manage to swing the Lynch to Tota, then he can kill Hap, or kill one of us.

He kills Hap? Then we lynch him, he survives, kills us at night, and now we're at 2v1 and win.

He, oh, I don't know, breaks his word?

Suddenly there are 2 town left, 1 Mafia, and 1 SK. We lynch him and he lives? Well, we've just lost. We lynch Mafia? Well, we've just lost. Even if the two hit the same townie, it's the same scenario.

I am not trusting Dovah to keep his word when breaking it wins him the game, sorry.

To sum it up, our only chance in either scenario is if Dovah is lying about being lynch proof. I'd rather trust the scenario where we win for calling his bluff than the scenario where we only win if scum hit eachother/the same target.

Sooo yeah. Post is a bit rambly, but my point stands. I'm not swaying course.
 
That's fair, tbh. Now that I'm claimed SK, I'm not going to argue with sound logic or try to overwhelm you. I made my case. I stand by it. I will take the win from Town if I am lynched.

@TheMaskedReader @Kuma Siegfried @Totadileplayz @Happerry

Consider my offer for yourselves.

I think the choice is alignment indicative, frankly. It's not impossible for one of TMR/Kuma to be hidden scum, and I think not taking the deal is good evidence for it. After all, if you take the deal, I am an active problem. If you don't, I'm down, Oshha and Ban kill Tota and Happs, game over for Town. So, frankly, alignment regardless, imo, you should switch.

But obviously I'm the SK. Take my words for what you will.
 
Okay, I ran the numbers in my head (not posting them here because that would take too long) and took into account that if Dovah is telling the truth, then we need to lynch him twice. However, if we lynch Tota and put down to one mafia and a Dovah who needs to be lynched twice, Town can't win unless scum hit the same town target at night or scum turn on each other aka Dovah upholding his deal or him and mafia targeting the other one at night once Dovah gets the first lynch.

I agree with Ban. Dovah is bluffing here because the game is only unwinnable if we lynch him here and he doesn't have one-shot lynch immunity. He is trying to bluff us into avoiding the lynch. Here is what happens, we lynch Dovah today, he gets pied and then with the serial killer out of the game, Town focuses on Mafia.
 
Okay, I ran the numbers in my head (not posting them here because that would take too long) and took into account that if Dovah is telling the truth, then we need to lynch him twice. However, if we lynch Tota and put down to one mafia and a Dovah who needs to be lynched twice, Town can't win unless scum hit the same town target at night or scum turn on each other aka Dovah upholding his deal or him and mafia targeting the other one at night once Dovah gets the first lynch.

I agree with Ban. Dovah is bluffing here because the game is only unwinnable if we lynch him here and he doesn't have one-shot lynch immunity. He is trying to bluff us into avoiding the lynch. Here is what happens, we lynch Dovah today, he gets pied and then with the serial killer out of the game, Town focuses on Mafia.
May I point out that if I am not lynchproof, then all permutations of this deal result in me losing the game? I would die if lynched toDay, and if I backstabbed Town I'd die toMorrow. If I didn't backstab Town I would ... yes, still die toMorrow. If literally no possibility works for me achieving victory, Occam's Razor is that I am telling the truth. It would be illogical to do this for any other reason, and out of the bounds of the rules to do if it didn't provide me with a possibility of victory I didn't have otherwise. So if both Town and I have certainly lost if I'm lynched ..?

I will kill Town toNight if I'm lynched toDay. I would ask Mafia to do the same; at that point we're on the same side, just as we started off at--needing the other but not for too long. Well, it isn't over yet, Cyric jumped the gun. I understand not leaping to my side (you didn't for Cyric, why would you for me?), but you can't really win without me.
 
Oshaa don't you mean winnable* in the second paragraph, second sentence?

No, I mean that if we lynch Dovah today, he cannot win while in other scenarios, he has a shot at winning. Not good chances, but he at least has a chance.

Frankly the more and more I look at things, I am increasing sceptical of Dovah's claim of one-shot lynch immunity.

That said, @Dovah What are the names of your powers and how do they work? I would like some more details that aren't technical in nature if I am to believe your claims than "I got night immunity" and "I got one-shot lynch immunity which is tied to my night immunity."
 
The Dovah lynch has enough of a lead that I am willingly to give Dovah the benefit of the doubt until they get back to me on my questions regarding the fluff of their powers.

[X] Null
 
No, I mean that if we lynch Dovah today, he cannot win while in other scenarios, he has a shot at winning. Not good chances, but he at least has a chance.

Frankly the more and more I look at things, I am increasing sceptical of Dovah's claim of one-shot lynch immunity.

That said, @Dovah What are the names of your powers and how do they work? I would like some more details that aren't technical in nature if I am to believe your claims than "I got night immunity" and "I got one-shot lynch immunity which is tied to my night immunity."
Alright. I'm the Serial Pier, and my assortment of powers are listed under a header reflecting that name--i.e. I don't want to quote my PM, so that's essentially what my list of powers is called.

I'm 99% certain I'm one of the experiments Terra mentioned; it's a good and obvious place to try things out.

I'm going to lay all my powers out and I'm going to trust you not to, you know, give the scum team the opportunity to exploit my weaknesses.

I'm Cop Immune as long as 15 players are alive, i.e. why I didn't kill until the 3rd Night. This was a huge part of my strategy, because that tunnel on Pawn and that utter certainty Nani picked up on was to make the Cop go after me, because no way I could be that certain on Pawn. I was surprised when Pawn turned up not scum, though, admittedly.

Above 13, I'm an always-on doublevoter.

Above 10 or at 10, I'm a Strongman, i.e. can't be RB'd or Jailed.

Above 8 or at 8, I'm Nightkill immune.

Above 6 or at 6 I'm lynchproof.

I'm already not Nightproof, that was just to hopefully keep the scum off my back this next Night, but I don't think it matters anymore. We lynch Tota, I'm free to kill the last scum, and be lynched the following Day, or crosskilled by the last scum.
 
Well, oneshot lynchproof. Town can't just literally keep lynching me to no effect all the way down to 6 players.
 
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