Clown Academy (Mafia)

If there was 3 remaining they lost if they mislynched Happerry yes.

However the setup was always 5/0 or 4/1. 5/1 never should have been considered a realistic option imo.

And it still offered up better odds than potentially playing kingmaker for sk.
It is a third of the setup. I think both were equally realistic, really, and as it was scum essentially ended up having a fifth player in Happs anyway.
 
A mislynch would result in losing, yeah. It was theorized 5v3v1, so lynching Maf made it 4v2v1, worst case next day was 2v2v1, essentially a Town loss, best case was (impossible, but) 4v1.

Okay so it was day 6, 8 players alive,

If we assume the scenario is 5-3-1, and kill the SK, game enters day 7 as 4-3, a single miss vote by a townie results in a loss from an organized scum team.

If we lynch one of the "3" scum game is now, 5-2-1 going into the night with the potential of = 3-2-1 or 4-1-1 the next phase (assuming all faction kills do go through). In which case town either way hold half the vote and the sk and mafia are against each other. If no dead mafia in the night town must kill the mafia over the SK lest they lose in the night phase, if a mafia is dead they can kill either really. So we'll follow the no mafia dead in the night theory.
Lynch a mafia game is now 3-1-1 going into the night with the possibility (assuming mafia doesn't think of targeting the SK for a kill [even if it now would work in this case] we could end up at 2-1 (SK) or 1-1-1. Where Town becomes kingmaker or lynches SK for victory in the 2-1 set-up.
 
Okay so it was day 6, 8 players alive,

If we assume the scenario is 5-3-1, and kill the SK, game enters day 7 as 4-3, a single miss vote by a townie results in a loss from an organized scum team.

If we lynch one of the "3" scum game is now, 5-2-1 going into the night with the potential of = 3-2-1 or 4-1-1 the next phase (assuming all faction kills do go through). In which case town either way hold half the vote and the sk and mafia are against each other. If no dead mafia in the night town must kill the mafia over the SK lest they lose in the night phase, if a mafia is dead they can kill either really. So we'll follow the no mafia dead in the night theory.
Lynch a mafia game is now 3-1-1 going into the night with the possibility (assuming mafia doesn't think of targeting the SK for a kill [even if it now would work in this case] we could end up at 2-1 (SK) or 1-1-1. Where Town becomes kingmaker or lynches SK for victory in the 2-1 set-up.


Addendum that doesn't equal 8 players :V

So it would be 4-3-1, so they HAVE TO kill mafia scum or lose.

4-2-1 in the night. Mafia kills Town, and SK could do either I guess.

Day becomes either 2-2-1 or 3-1-1.

2-2-1 Day 7(?)

Town must lynch mafia again or always lose so 2-1-1 going into night. Town only wins on scum choosing to cross kill and in every scenario SK kills mafia, but mafia could believe that SK is immune and hits a town. If Mafia assumes always immune, it is 1-1 SK victory, if mafia attacks sk it is 2 town victory.

3-1-1 Day 7(?)

Town may kill either scum, if they ever get a mislynch on a townie they lose. Outside of a scum cross kill one of the nights.

Town kills scum day7(?) 3-1 Scum kills town 2-1, lylo on scum lynch.

Town mislynches day 7(?) 2-1-1 Town only wins if scum cross hit each other otherwise SK probably wins.
 
I actually thought that the smartest thing for town to do with a 2-1-1 set up is lynch themselves. It guaranteed that neither do or wolf would want to hit town since it would be a useless lynch. Making it more likely for a crosskill.
 
I actually thought that the smartest thing for town to do with a 2-1-1 set up is lynch themselves. It guaranteed that neither do or wolf would want to hit town since it would be a useless lynch. Making it more likely for a crosskill.
Well, in that case the obvious move for the SK is to just kill Town, because SK wins all ties always. So it's down to whether the SK is NK immune or not to what they do, which is more uncertainty than Town should like when things are at that point.
 
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