We have confirmation from the GM that a bridge will not allow for easier wood harvesting. Nor was there mention of any other economical benefits. Investing in economically useful things was a good idea, but with this new information see no purpose to building a bridge at this point.
Can I convince you to make the following changes to your plan?
[ ] Build the third circuit (-15 Gold, -28 Stone) instead of [] Bridge the River (-10 Gold, -20 Stone) and [] Settle the East Bank (-10 Gold, -10 Stone)
In year 4, [ ] Farm (-3 Gold, +3 Food, Self Housing) instead of [] Logging Camp (-3 Gold, +3 Wood) and [] Residential District (-5 Gold, -2 Stone, +2 Housing)
Yes, we'll have little wood to spare without another logging camp. However, faster population growth is arguably more important - it will allow for another colony sooner, this one logging focused.
Which reminds me...
@Sayle
Can we establish a logging town at Eryn Vorn? It would probably be coastal, with a dock for easy transport? What would be the cost? What would the expected return?
The primary advantage of a bridge is that we can transport lumber from Eryn Vorn easily. The closest point of Eryn Vorn is only 23-24 miles away from Ost Falasuin. (Yes, I've measured the distance). At these distances, it is conceivable for Ost Falasuin to directly harvest the lumber without needing a further colony, and land transport would also be more efficient than sea. Having a bridge means that we can directly transport the lumber to the north side as well.
Having a river crossing in our capital is also militarily important. Any enemy attempting to besiege the settlement has to do so from BOTH sides, while we control the only river crossing within 200 miles. This allows us to defeat both besieging armies in detail, as there is literally no way they can get the other army on the other side around in time to support (good luck marching 400 miles). That, or they have to take our settlement by storm, which is greatly disadvantageous for the attacker. Settling both sides of the river also means that we can implement some sort of control over the waterway itself; if an enemy navy (e.g. corsairs) is trying to attack, we can raise a river chain. The enemy won't be able to cut it as they would have to secure one of the points controlling the chain, and we control both sides.
As for the 'hole in our defenses', a bridge serves as a chokepoint. If the enemy manages to break through either side (which is harder as they got to split their army), they will have to storm across the bridge to take the other part. Storming across a bridge means their men get exposed to intense archer and artillery fire while their numbers don't really matter due to the narrow front. In the worst case, we could find a way to break the bridge.
On an economic level, a bridge is essential for a Orodsir - Ost Falasuin - Lond Daer road. Once Lond Daer is established, this road would easily link our multiple settlements together. Controlling both sides of the river allow us to toll the land crossing AND the waterway (You don't pay, we don't raise the river chain and let your ship pass).
The bridge and expansion on the other bank of the river don't have to be established next turn, but it should be done soon.
Re: Sarn Ford
There is no reason why ships cannot sail up to, or even past, Sarn Ford. There are ships which are extremely flat bottomed, eg. the Viking Longship IRL that can navigate in waters only 1 metre deep, which is a depth easily passable by humans or horses. TBH I think the ships in Middle-Earth are kinda similar to those. I won't be surprised if ships can actually sail past Sarn Ford, although their cargo capacity may leave a bit to be desired.
First, land travel is slow, sea travel and river travel is faster, specially for goods, like lumber so your first point? dismissed entirely
A bridge with settlements on both sides of a river like the Baranduin? is a weakness, we will need more troops to garrison it and it is not only the outer walls, but the river walls AND the bridge. it is only a coke point if the enemy is going though it, not around it, if the enemy invest the city it will invest both shores AND the riverine access points, which means a force at sea blockading and small boats inland.
On an economic level... you do realize that Orodsir is to the NORTH? as in on the same bank as we are? and Lond Daer, if resettled, the main commerce thoroughfare is going to be seaborn, right? I mean, sure a road would be an interesting added route, eventually, once/if we resettle Lond Daer.
AGAIN: with our tech level, sea travel is faster, can carry bigger payloads. a land route would be a back up, or if we had a few settlements along the way that *can't* be reached by sea
No, you have not explained why building a bridge and settling the other bank, that is to say putting a big hole in our defenses, is a desirable idea. and am still not seeing how your reply has to do with my quoted text.
TL; DR
1)Bridges are chokepoints that can be easily fortified and defended.
Or dropped in extremis.
2)Sarn Ford is no more than 200 miles away.
An attacking army forces the crossing there and it should be at Ost in two weeks at the most.
The river is only a barrier to small raids, and we already have the forces to deal with small raids.
3) The infrastructure and population requirements of your small dock puts a chunk of our population in a vulnerable spot where they can be attacked by raiders but not protected by the rest of our military.
as for the ford, you do realize river barges are flat bottom craft?, right? assuming the frod is shallow and it is not a legacy name, we can use that place as a marshaling yard where we switch the cargo from barges to carts... so, I am really not understanding what you mean to say
Yes, I'm well aware that barges are flat-bottomed.
Loaded barges still have displacement, though, especially when carrying cargo. And require propulsion to boot; coming downriver it can go with the current, but upriver seems a different story.
I'm actually not confident that the upper reaches of the Baranduin above Sarn Ford are navigable to cargo ships.
I actually agree with you on the fortification aspect. A bridge is not a defensive weak point. There's no reason we can't put a gatehouse or two on top of it. That being said, dropping a well-built stone bridge is easier said than done.
Even so, building a bridge at this point makes no sense economically. We have word of GM that it will not help with wood harvesting.
1. Would it be possible to build a road up to Orodsîr? (Even if said "road" is just a clay track with drainage ditches along side it so that it was passable even during wet weather.) And if so, what effects would such a road have? I am hoping it might allow us to increase wood harvesting and open up more farm and pasture land as well as provide strategic and trade benefits.
2. Do we need to build river barges to trade along the Baranduin? I'm quite tempted by the idea of trading with the Shire for food and am wondering what the prerequisites are.
Excellent quest by the way. It's really drawn me in.
1. Building a road across that distance into mountainous terrain would be a major undertaking that your treasury is probably not capable of supporting at this time. Wait for the nation-building phase (probably next turn).
2. I'm assuming for the sake of simplicity that river barges are in use to the 'normal' trading cap of 2 units per turn.
@Sayle
Can we establish a logging town at Eryn Vorn? It would probably be coastal, with a dock for easy transport? What would be the cost? What would the expected return?
You could, and it would cost both population and the setup cost for the buildings they would use. Unless you consider it a priority, though, I'd advise waiting until after this turn when the system will change to Arnor-wide management of population/colony sites.
We have confirmation from the GM that a bridge will not allow for easier wood harvesting. Nor was there mention of any other economical benefits. Investing in economically useful things was a good idea, but with this new information see no purpose to building a bridge at this point.
Yes, we'll have little wood to spare without another logging camp. However, faster population growth is arguably more important - it will allow for another colony sooner, this one logging focused.
That's cutting our wood supplies entirely too close.
We currently produce 12 Wood/yr and have 13 Pop. If we add +3 Pop this turn, that hits 16 Pop.
You don't want to deviate too much from a 1:1 production because in harsh winters, we consume 1 Wood per unit of Population.
People will almost certainly die without heat in winter.
Similarly, really severe winters shut down farms for the duration; you are then reliant on imported food, fishing and pastures.
I don't think it's a good idea to go with a mostly farm-based setup in those conditions; Gondor might survive it, but I doubt we will.
There is significant nuance to this that you are missing.
Water cargo requires infrastructure. Ships/boats, docks at both ends, convenient waterways.
Most points? Do not share that. The Shire borders the Baranduin, and has no river ports I'm aware of. Trade to the south in canon went by land.
Furthermore, it's throughput is limited by the availability of suitable transport. Not usually an issue on a river; more of one when talking of seagoing ships. And you can and do lose water cargo(and ships!) to weather and bad luck; land usually requires active interference.
TL; DR
Both water and land have advantages and disadvantages.
Osgiliath.
It's defense by Anarion son of Elendil against Sauron during the War of the Last Alliance is literally part of the shared history of Arnor and Gondor.
You don't want to deviate too much from a 1:1 production because in harsh winters, we consume 1 Wood per unit of Population.
People will almost certainly die without heat in winter.
The chance for such a winter is 1 in 5. Our wood stores will allow us to get through 3 such winters in a row. The probability of 4 in a row happening is 0.16%. And worst comes to worst, we can always import.
Since we'll almost certainly be building at least one logging camp next turn... yeah, I'm not worried.
This time the chance of such a harsh winter is 1 in 10. With one additional farm, three in total, we would lose out on 9 units of food if it happened. Our remaining food production would amount to 11, meaning our food stores would last more than 3 years. The chance of 4 winters of that severity in a row is 0.01%. As in, it might happen about once every 10000 years.
Yeah, I'm really not worried. As demonstrated, your doubts are unfounded.
(BTW, I don't advocate an entirely farm-based setup either. I'd prefer drawing food from all three sources in roughly equal amounts, to be as resistant as possible to sudden disruptions to any one food source.)
Okay, so after chatting with @Sayle about our Stone accounting, it turns out we have 32 stone rather than 19.
This means that potentially, we could build the Third Circuit in Year 1, and then be set up to expand to the other bank by like Year 5. Or vice-versa, actually. I'm going to start drafting something based on that in a minute.
I considered advocating for Cavalry, actually.
Problem:
That would entail patrolling the borders of the Old Forest and the Barrow Downs. With horses.
Excitable, sensitive horses.
I think we might want to stick to our two feet for a bit, at least until we can lay our hands on a source of reliable steeds, if any such exist atm.
Canon Dunedain of yore were superb infantrymen, after all.
Good catch there. That is definitely a valid concern. Although they could potentially function as mounted infantry- use the horses for mobility but then dismount before they get to the edges of the Old Forest or Barrow Downs. Still...
The Éothéod were renowned for breeding excellent horses, but they're kind of a bitch to trade with at the moment. I'm not sure how safe the High Pass is right now; if it's clear then that would be one thing. But otherwise you're looking at going south around the bottom of the Misty Mountains and then all the way up the Anduin. Still, if we sent a group of Rangers with like 8 Gold, maybe they could bring back enough studs and mares in one trip to strengthen our bloodlines. If they don't get set upon on the way.
Another closer alternative with good horses might be Imladris, although they might not really be able to trade in the kind of quantities we'd need to reinvigorate our herds right away.
Bridging the river will not increase wood production, and building merchant ships are only useful for trade (and troop transport). Or, in this case, salvaging stone from elsewhere. Fleets should be built in service of an objective, not just having nice things.
Your most recent post clarified a couple things I was wondering about, so I just have to ask:
QUESTION
Does access to the Blackwood increase our chances of discovery of other lebenthorn groves, or is that just a function of logging camps?
Is it intentional that Orodsir produces more Metal and Stone (+3 each) than normal mines and quarries(+2 each)?
Okay, so after chatting with @Sayle about our Stone accounting, it turns out we have 32 stone rather than 19.
This means that potentially, we could build the Third Circuit in Year 1, and then be set up to expand to the other bank by like Year 5. Or vice-versa, actually. I'm going to start drafting something based on that in a minute.
Having a walled city on the other bank kind of removes a strategic vulnerability of the enemy easily being able to attack from the riverward side. Our river walls probably aren't as high as our outer walls. We might also be able to pick up one of the city centres for the other side which we didn't get last time, like the Palace or Citadel. We might also be able to build another Baths or Houses of Healing for the other side as well, although it's anyone's guess if they'd raise Prosperity further.
Having a city on either bank also has a sense of symmetry to it which appeals to my OCD.
As far as I recall, one of the features of our start location was that we had ample local supplies of food, but not Stone or Metal. We basically bypassed that with Orodsîr by building a new satellite settlement in a location -within the shadow of the Blue Mountains- where stone and metal supplies were much more abundant. The +2 Mines and Quarries still in our build list represent if we were to build one locally; not that there would be much of a sensible reason to do so rather than just expanding Orodsîr, at this point.
Your most recent post clarified a couple things I was wondering about, so I just have to ask:
QUESTION
Does access to the Blackwood increase our chances of discovery of other lebenthorn groves, or is that just a function of logging camps?
Is it intentional that Orodsir produces more Metal and Stone (+3 each) than normal mines and quarries(+2 each)?
The chance for such a winter is 1 in 5. Our wood stores will allow us to get through 3 such winters in a row. The probability of 4 in a row happening is 0.16%. And worst comes to worst, we can always import.
We have gotten hit by successive harsh winters in a row; every turn that's happened in this game that I can recall, it's come twice.
Look up Turn TA 1982-84, and this past turn.
Dunno if it's the dice, or if our supernatural opposition is applying a modifier; thumbing the scales, so to speak.
This time the chance of such a harsh winter is 1 in 10. With one additional farm, three in total, we would lose out on 9 units of food if it happened. Our remaining food production would amount to 11, meaning our food stores would last more than 3 years. The chance of 4 winters of that severity in a row is 0.01%. As in, it might happen about once every 10000 years.
Yeah, I'm really not worried. As demonstrated, your doubts are unfounded.
As if to punctuate the severity of the situation the coldest winter in many years causes a local famine that forces an opening of the granaries and the distribution of food. Orodsîr is hit hard as well, and also take from the storehouses just to survive. The air is heavy with smoke from the fires, and even the Dome of the Palantiri is packed with those trying to remain warm.
That's why I went with Fishing instead of Farms for our first spot.
And why I worry about Farms, especially since places like Bree and the Shire are going to be farm and pasture.
EDIT
That becomes especially relevant if we shift to nation-management next turn, as the GM is hinting.
I dont know about expanding to the other side this turn but doing the bridge+another wall this turn to eat our stone with maybe founding the other side of river last year as someone said a decent idea especially since it probably will allow us to do another city center wich is pretty good anyway but mostly id stay expanding on the main side of things untill the wall costs get to astronomical more or less (wich they arleady are reaching slowly). and then doing that.
We really should send a pop of infantry to bree while building a military district there and upgrade our own unit to that aswell and maybe doing one of the two armory or guard stuff upgrade this turn is worth mentioning .
And as people have said , fishing is probably the safest food income atm for disasters but not very efficent pop wise.
I actually agree with you on the fortification aspect. A bridge is not a defensive weak point. There's no reason we can't put a gatehouse or two on top of it. That being said, dropping a well-built stone bridge is easier said than done.
Even so, building a bridge at this point makes no sense economically. We have word of GM that it will not helpwith wood harvesting.
The defensive strenght of a bridge is very... debatable. it can be an obstacle, it can be defensible but it heably depends on the surrounding area. quite frankly an army can probably find, most of the times, other places to cross the river...
There is significant nuance to this that you are missing.
Water cargo requires infrastructure. Ships/boats, docks at both ends, convenient waterways.
Most points? Do not share that. The Shire borders the Baranduin, and has no river ports I'm aware of. Trade to the south in canon went by land.
Furthermore, it's throughput is limited by the availability of suitable transport. Not usually an issue on a river; more of one when talking of seagoing ships. And you can and do lose water cargo(and ships!) to weather and bad luck; land usually requires active interference.
TL; DR
Both water and land have advantages and disadvantages.
Osgiliath.
It's defense by Anarion son of Elendil against Sauron during the War of the Last Alliance is literally part of the shared history of Arnor and Gondor.
Sigh... you want to build a bridge to make a road viable to... Lond Daer that is very reachable by sea, it was a port no less, and to Ordosir that is on the same bank as our settlement... this was your stated reasoning in the vote.
Then there is the ford of the baraduin up river, where we can use barge traffic (we will probably make riverside roads eventually to make upriver traffic easier, sure, so that horses or oxens or mules will be used to move the barges... which will be a net advantage over carts) to Sarns ford, if we fortify it, we use it as a transfer station both to the shire/bree and southwards towards Tharbad and Sarn's ford, once invested again, would serve as an ideal trade hub for the area
Yes, most points do not share the required conditions for seaborn traffic, but most will, most do.
as for Osgiliath, yes, yes, it can be a choke-point if the enemy can't cross elsewhere, but note that Osgiliath was invested partially, for our city to be threatened the enemy will need to blockade us and have control of both banks and if they can blockade us they will be able to move troops from one bank to the other and will also have flat bottomed boats to make an infiltration attempt though the bridges, it is simple logic. and since the most likely party to do this is Umbar... I figure they will try and be smart about it.
Note that I am not considering loosing half the city but an infil attempt though the bridges at night... when many of the Enemy's forces are better... the might cause some mayhem, start fires and even make an attempt to the gates.
NOTE Eventually we will want to settle the other bank, eventually we will have the pop to do so and eventually we will have a reason for it (and the garrison to defend the added lenghts of wall both on the river and otherwise)
Now? now we do not.
Also your idea that they can be dropped... how? have you ever seen a stone bridge? you'd need quite a lot of people with picks working at the columns, which are going to be in the river, outside of the walls, for a long time.
Five Year Plan: This City of Stone Civic Construction
Year 1
[X] Build the third circuit (-15 Gold, -28 Stone) Year 2
->[X] Assign New Population (1) to Fishing (-3 Gold, -2 Wood, +3 Food/Turn)
[X] Small Wooden Residential District (-5 Gold, -2 Wood, +2 Housing) Year 3
[X] Set Equipment Doctrine: Fine Equipment (-5 Metal, -1 Iron) Year 4
--[X] Doctrine Change: Men-At-Arms -> Infantry (-10 Gold)
->[X] Assign New Population (1) to Military (Infantry) (-20 Gold, -5 Metal, - 1 Iron)
[X] Military District: Bree (-10 Gold) Year 5
[X] Bridge the River (-10 Gold, -20 Stone)
--[X] Settle the East Bank (-10 Gold, -10 Stone)
Diplomacy and Military
Year 1
[X] Investigate importing food more cheaply from the Shire in future, shipping it by barge down the Baranduin. Year 2
[X] Petition the Wise for their aid or counsel in quelling the Barrow-Wights. Year 3
[X] Investigate trading for stone or coal with the dwarves of the Blue Mountains. Year 4
[X] Garrison Bree. Year 5
[X] Investigate the current state of the High Pass.
Trade and Treasury
[X] Import 4 Stone (-12 Gold/Turn)
[X] Import 4 Food (-8 Gold/Turn)
[X] Export 1 Hardwood (+5 Gold/Turn)
[X] Export 2 Metal (+4 Gold/ Turn)
[X] Export 1 Iron (+2 Gold/Turn)
[X] Open Chieftain's Treasury in Year 4 to finance garrison in Bree (-30 Gold C.T.)
Net: - 9 Gold/Turn
Financial
Stone
Wood
Food
Population
Metal
Year 1
22 - (15) | 7 + 10
32 - (28) | 4 + 7
2 (13/13) - 7.8 est. | 0 (7.2/13) + 12
+ 6 E.O.T. Surplus (13/13)
13 (8/14 Growth + 9)
8 - (0) | 8 + 1
Year 2
17 - (8) | 9 + 11
11 - (2) | 9 + 7
5.2 (14/14) - (8.4 est - 4) | 0 (6.8/14) + 12
+4 E.O.T. Surplus (14/14)
14 (3/15 Growth + 6)
9 - (0) | 9 + 1
Year 3
20 - (0) | 20 + 11
16 - (0) | 16 + 7
4.8 (14/14) - 8.4 est. | 0 (10.4/14) + 12
+8 E.O.T. Surplus (14/14)
14 (9/15 Growth + 12)
10 - (5) | 5 + 1
Year 4
31 - (10 + 20 + 10) + 30 C.T. | 21 + 11
23 - (0) | 23 + 7
7.4 (15/15) - 9 est. | 0 (13.4/15) + 12
+6 E.O.T. Surplus (15/15)
15 (6/16 Growth + 9)
6 - (5) | 1 + 1
Year 5
32 - (10 + 10) | 12 + 11
30 - (20 +10) | 0 + 7
10.4 (15/15) - 9 est. | 1.4 (15/15) + 12
+7 E.O.T. Surplus (15/15)
15 (15/16 Growth + 10)
2 - (0) | 2 +1
Start Year 6
23 Gold
7 Stone
13.4 est. (15/15 Stockpile)
+5 E.O.T. Surplus (16/16)
16 Population (9/17 Growth)
3 Metal (7 Iron)
Notes
Apologies for the wait; I was going to post this up last night but ended up nearly passing out at my computer. Then today was hectic. C'est la vie. Anyway, this plan gets us the Third Circuit Wall and expansion to the east bank, all in one turn. We garrison Bree, and establish another fishery. We also upgrade our soldiers from men-at-arms to regular infantry, and upgrade the quality of their gear.
To do that, I had to get a bit inventive with certain things. We're importing so much Stone and Food that we have to crack open the Chieftain's Treasury to garrison Bree, but that's okay, it's what it's there for. We're also building a residential district (to house our new fishermen) in wood, which we'll then tear down and build in stone on the eastern bank in the next turn. This is because Military districts apparently cost Stone, so if we didn't do this we'd basically -2 down on Stone and we wouldn't be able to settle the east bank in Year 5.
Originally I had the Third Circuit Wall in Year 5, and the bridge + settling in Year 1, but then looking back through the discussion it seemed like no one was hugely enthusiastic about the bridge, so I decided we might as well get the wall built first. I can swap that around again with no problems if people would prefer, though.
Five Year Plan: This City of Stone Civic Construction
Year 1
[X] Build the third circuit (-15 Gold, -28 Stone) Year 2
->[X] Assign New Population (1) to Fishing (-3 Gold, -2 Wood, +3 Food/Turn)
[X] Small Wooden Residential District (-5 Gold, -2 Wood, +2 Housing) Year 3
[X] Set Equipment Doctrine: Fine Equipment (-5 Metal, -1 Iron) Year 4
--[X] Doctrine Change: Men-At-Arms -> Infantry (-10 Gold)
->[X] Assign New Population (1) to Military (Infantry) (-20 Gold, -5 Metal, - 1 Iron)
[X] Military District: Bree (-10 Gold) Year 5
[X] Bridge the River (-10 Gold, -20 Stone)
--[X] Settle the East Bank (-10 Gold, -10 Stone)
Diplomacy and Military
Year 1
[X] Investigate importing food more cheaply from the Shire in future, shipping it by barge down the Baranduin. Year 2
[X] Petition the Wise for their aid or counsel in quelling the Barrow-Wights. Year 3
[X] Investigate trading for stone or coal with the dwarves of the Blue Mountains. Year 4
[X] Garrison Bree. Year 5
[X] Investigate the current state of the High Pass.
Trade and Treasury
[X] Import 4 Stone (-12 Gold/Turn)
[X] Import 4 Food (-8 Gold/Turn)
[X] Export 1 Hardwood (+5 Gold/Turn)
[X] Export 2 Metal (+4 Gold/ Turn)
[X] Export 1 Iron (+2 Gold/Turn)
[X] Open Chieftain's Treasury in Year 4 to finance garrison in Bree (-30 Gold C.T.)
Net: - 9 Gold/Turn
I like the plan, but we are going to have a hard time petitioning a organisation that will only be formed in ~500 years. Just ask Elrond/the Elves of Rivendell.
I like the plan, but we are going to have a hard time petitioning a organisation that will only be formed in ~500 years. Just ask Elrond/the Elves of Rivendell.
Five Year Plan: This City of Stone
Civic Construction
Year 1
[X] Build the third circuit (-15 Gold, -28 Stone) Year 2
->[X] Assign New Population (1) to Fishing (-3 Gold, -2 Wood, +3 Food/Turn)
[X] Small Wooden Residential District (-5 Gold, -2 Wood, +2 Housing) Year 3
[X] Set Equipment Doctrine: Fine Equipment (-5 Metal, -1 Iron) Year 4
--[X] Doctrine Change: Men-At-Arms -> Infantry (-10 Gold)
->[X] Assign New Population (1) to Military (Infantry) (-20 Gold, -5 Metal, - 1 Iron)
[X] Military District: Bree (-10 Gold) Year 5
[X] Bridge the River (-10 Gold, -20 Stone)
--[X] Settle the East Bank (-10 Gold, -10 Stone)
Diplomacy and Military
Year 1
[X] Investigate importing food more cheaply from the Shire in future, shipping it by barge down the Baranduin. Year 2
[X] Petition the Wise for their aid or counsel in quelling the Barrow-Wights. Year 3
[X] Investigate trading for stone or coal with the dwarves of the Blue Mountains. Year 4
[X] Garrison Bree. Year 5
[X] Investigate the current state of the High Pass.
Trade and Treasury
[X] Import 4 Stone (-12 Gold/Turn)
[X] Import 4 Food (-8 Gold/Turn)
[X] Export 1 Hardwood (+5 Gold/Turn)
[X] Export 2 Metal (+4 Gold/ Turn)
[X] Export 1 Iron (+2 Gold/Turn)
[X] Open Chieftain's Treasury in Year 4 to finance garrison in Bree (-30 Gold C.T.)
Net: - 9 Gold/Turn
