Not a fan of overstretching the military, particularly when our plan was dependent on drawing down forces at calm borders (ex. the one we had had with France that is no longer so peaceful) and we have a certain ambitious guy's goons in Sichuan where we'd have to hollow our forces out ones so we can have them fighting further south.
Like I get that as far as France is concerned they're themselves stretched so one-on-one we could probably easily take their glorified police force while they're busy anyway with the existing dissent and commitments way out in Europe and the Americas. I absolutely believe that part of the text.
But what could happen if say France (which has preexisting and recently friendlier turning communications with former Taiping officials) offers support and promises for those disaffected elements to launch a revolt from behind our lines? We'd have a lot of juicy supplies moving thru the Sichuan basin and only token forces to guard them and keep up the reconstruction effort while we support a raging front south of the mountains. If timed correctly an uprising could overwhelm the local forces in the basin, secure the traitors a mountain-ringed redoubt, and chop off the supply lifeline to the southern forces leaving them to wither while sandwiched between rebels and invaders. We could stand to lose much of what we gained in the West China War, never mind add something new. We are also well aware with how unfortunately this sort of hypothetical act by the French lines up with the known blind spots in our intelligence so we could be caught completely off guard.
Just wanting to caution that waging war with only an eye for how to maintain our majority can lead us blind to greater risks. If new territory brings us more political forces to incorporate then as far as I'm concerned learning how to handle coalition building/navigating a coup amidst our government squabbling in a bigger China is better than how far south things can go if our militarily overstretched state is capitalized on in the sending soldiers option.
The NRA agrees, which is why they advocate for the currently winning option of sending guns and money to the GMD, but are stopping short of the Southern Expedition.
While we would still have supplies going through Sichuan, it doesnt seem like these supplies are actually new to the region - its taiping armories and conscript equipment, both of which is already in Sichuan at the moment, so putting them into the hand of friendlier faces would probably help reduce risk by depriving dissatisfied elements from easy access to weaponry.
Let's hope that they actually accept the condition and join us as KMT. They'd probably even create a new faction within the KMT as with something along the lines of KMT-South or KMT-Federalist. I would say though that even if they join us as part of the KMT, this is going to be a temporary affair and they're going to split from the party eventually since our ideology and powerbases are a bit too different to stay in one party for long. What a KMT southern integration offers as an advantage besides a delay in that situation is a chance to pull away southern voters away from the eventual GMD party before the split, offering us a better chance to keep our majority and not have to deal with coalition politics for a little while longer.
Let's hope that they actually accept the condition and join us as KMT. They'd probably even create a new faction within the KMT as with something along the lines of KMT-South or KMT-Federalist. I would say though that even if they join us as part of the KMT, this is going to be a temporary affair and they're going to split from the party eventually since our ideology and powerbases are a bit too different to stay in one party for long. What a KMT southern integration offers as an advantage besides a delay in that situation is a chance to pull away southern voters away from the eventual GMD party before the split, offering us a better chance to keep our majority and not have to deal with coalition politics for a little while longer.
Just delaying the specter of losing our majority would be a win already. Delaying the crisis into the future can be succesful if we strenghten the Republic in the meantime.
[X] [GMD] Provide Material Aid to the GMD Uprising. [X] [TERM] Integrate the GMD as a southern branch of the KMT.
A Revolutionary Triumph.
"...For some time after the massacre, it seemed that the uproar on the streets of Guangzhou would not boil over into anything more substantive than the actions of a few disgruntled arsonists, with a handful of French offices firebombed in the following days. Declarations from the GMD, which called for resistance against the French occupiers, had seemed to signal the possibility of a rebellion for the wary colonists. Yet, with the exception of those few incidents, the French colonial administration seemed to be able to release a breath of relief, with little of the expected immediate and violent backlash of their actions coming to fruition. Indeed, Governor-General Joost would be quite thoroughly assured by Governor Lu of the joint administration of Guangdong-Guangxi that the incident was only a minor one, unlikely to cause any major reaction from the submissive local population. In part, this was fueled by an underestimation of the influence of the GMD, and Lu's desires to remain autonomous of Saigon's rule. Joost, being the more experienced colonial administrator, would however proceed with the mobilization of several colonial regiments in Northern Vietnam in anticipation of any attempts at rebellion and secession.
Seeing within the whole crisis as an opportunity as well to further reduce the autonomy of the South China administrations, the Governor-General would send missives to Paris, requesting the imposition of martial law across the Chinese frontier. Governor Lu's lobbying would serve him well in this regard, as the French Colonial Office would seek to find a compromise position between the two highly influential men, a flurry of telegraphs sent forth between Saigon and Guangzhou. Paris would be far from interested of these occurrences in some far away colony, with events in the ongoing civil war in Iberia and political instability in their Russian ally sapping any political will for serious dialogue.
All of these political moves, however, rested on the assumption that any rebellion could be easily squashed by the forces at the disposal of both colonial authorities, an assumption that would be severely re-evaluated in the coming days..." - Imperial Heights: The Making and Undoing of the French Far East.
On the 25th of February, nearly three weeks after the massacre, the streets of Guangzhou would be host once more to a great mass of humans, though not one of the typical strolling civilian that crowded out the great marketplaces of that prosperous city. Instead it would be the first elements of the GMD's own militia forces, alongside several regiments of the province's armed forces, marching through the main roads of the provincial capital, rushing to seize as many of the government offices as possible before anyone realized what exactly was happening.
In those three interim weeks between the initial outrage and the first moves of the GMD, they would take their time to organize and coordinate their forces, with Chen Jiongming and other high-ranking leaders dispersing to coordinate uprisings in disparate cells to take place at precise times in hopes of crippling any possible response from the government.
Access to KMT supplies would be much appreciated in these cases, as convincing the more rural elements of the uprising would be more easily accomplished with the promise of additional equipment to assist them in their own autonomous rebellions. These rural elements would strike out early first, sabotaging state infrastructure and launching several assassinations of prominent European gentry and some of the harsher local landlord class as well, causing the Guangdong-Guangxi Government to have to divert vital troops to the villages to protect their interests.
Loyalist forces under the Lu government would be shocked to find rebel forces marching on the dawn taken by extreme surprise, with the Guangzhou post office and telegraph buildings taken almost immediately in the sudden uprising, cutting off communications between the provincial capital and the wider French colonial apparatus. Governor Lu's forces would be significantly depleted within the city itself, though still willing to put up a decent fight against the assumedly lightly armed rebels in the GMD.
Rebel Forces under General Chen with a Handful of Antiquated Cannon and Maxim Guns.
Indeed, the rebels under Chen Jiongming had planned to assault the government forces stranded within Guangzhou using their sheer momentum and mass of force, though miscommunication with General Li Fulin's personal forces would see their force advantage dwindled somewhat, as the bandit would dither on officially supporting the GMD uprising in the initial hours.
French-supplied 75-millimeter field guns and Hotchkiss machine guns would do much to equalize the city battle in Governor Lu's favor, frustrating the rebels for much of the next few days. To the misfortune of the relieved loyalist troops however, a combination of governmental grafting and poor maintenance would see many of these fine weapons of war either inoperable after only minor usage, or their ammunition stockpiles rapidly depleted, causing the battle to shift in favor towards the rebels once more.
By the second week of the uprising, skirmishing within the city itself would be muted at best, as General Li's forces quickly moved to assist Chen Jiongming and the GMD forces to do a thorough cleanup of the city, searching high and low for any remaining loyalists to the French authorities. Collaborators would see their properties and riches seized, many having prospered under French rule through the Pearl Delta's great trading ports, much to the joy of the common people, as well as the accounting books of the GMD's quartermasters.
In a bout of fortune, the Governor would be caught by GMD forces on the outskirts of Guangzhou, a failed attempt to escape the grasp of the rebels in the haze of confusion post-battle. The rumor mills would say that the good Governor Lu was caught in the dress of one of his maids, having exchanged it with the lady herself in a bid to lower attention towards himself, leading to a farcical attempt at escape when he was found out, tripping over his own stolen clothing.
However much truth or lies there existed in that tale, the fact would remain that the leader of the loyalist forces was now in the custody of the GMD. And with the sudden decapitation strike, the remaining government forces would be thrown into chaos and disunity, many would simply turn traitor to the French, declaring themselves for the uprising, though a few remaining diehard loyalists in the Governor's inner circle would continue to fight.
Guangdong rapidly fell, and Guangxi soon thereafter, with limited French intervention by Governor-General Joost. Several hundred French marines would be deployed to act as a bulwark against further GMD encroachment into Indochina, with several regiments of the uprising coming into contact and routing against the determined colonial defenders.
Outside of these defensive measures however, French withdrawal from the dual colonial government of Guangxi and Guangdong had been seemingly accomplished, with the GMD declaring the 'end of foreign tyranny in these united provinces, and the establishment of a stronger and freer Chinese government!' The Lanzhou government would send a clear message of approval to the rising tide of revolutionary fervor, with President Sun applauding the GMD uprising, communications underway between the newly established Military Government of the Southern United Provinces, expectantly waiting for their request of ascension into the Republic.
Of course, things would never be that easy…
Banner of the Southern United Provinces.
With the victory of the GMD in Southern China by their own means, with limited foreign support, the position of the Guangzhou revolutionaries would be greatly strengthened against their northern brethren, fueling a great deal of tension between the southern autonomist movement and the Lanzhou government. The terms laid forward by the KMT would be politely rejected, the GMD seeing little use in submitting themselves to the Party's influence in the current moment, annoying the NRA and Sun Yat-Sen immensely, the former seeing their investment into the uprising wasted, and the latter seeing the southern government as yet another rival against the KMT's nationalist goals of reunification.
That being said, however, they would still eagerly request to join the United Front, and perhaps negotiate entry into the Republic itself as an autonomous province, not too dissimilar to agreements forged with the Shaanxi government under Feng Yuxiang. With the addition of such a large base of politically motivated populations however, there is no doubt that an early election to account for the GMD will be required to accommodate them into Lanzhou's political system, a frightening concept given the continual decline of the KMT's political authority in the legislature.
Yet, on the other hand, the greeting of another portion of China back into the fold of the Republic would benefit the reputation of the KMT quite a bit, with their reputation as torchbearers of the revolution having been dampened somewhat in recent years, this would be the perfect opportunity to rekindle that youthful energy of revolutionary enthusiasm amongst the KMT voter base.
[] [GMD] Integrate them into the CUF.
[] [GMD] Integrate them as an autonomous province of the Republic. [] [GMD] Integrate them as a province of the Republic.
[] [GMD] Reject their offer for integration.
Meanwhile, with the revolution in Guangxi-Guangdong Province, the light of the revolutionary spirit has been seemingly rekindled in other areas of the south as well, most notably the warlord state of Yunnan. Governor Cai E, a long time associate (but not member) of the Tongmenghui, had seemingly abandoned most thoughts of revolution in the following years of the Jiachen Uprising, silently supporting the Republic's efforts but never directly participating in insurrectionary movements.
With the success of the GMD, however, the Governor would approach the Lanzhou government with an offer directly. That in exchange for military support and a guarantee of his position as Governor of Yunnan, that the warlord would gladly declare himself for the KMT government in Lanzhou, and with him, the province itself. This would once again place pressure on the French, but given their timidity during the Guangdong affair, it seems unlikely that they would move for Yunnan, a far less valuable province in comparison.
However, the GMD have made no secret that their revolutionary fervor will not end merely at the border of Kunming's control, and their view of the warlord's administration is... less than ideal, their opinion of us no doubt soured, should we choose to accept the offer. Alternatively, should we refuse, the GMD would have to deal with an even larger border with the French, whose barely concealed hatred for the newly established southern government could prove a useful distraction for Guangzhou, preventing them from further compromising the Party's rule over the Republic.
[] [Yunnan] Accept the Offer.
[] [Yunnan] Reject the Offer.
[] [Yunnan] Support the GMD Offensive.
Pick ONE Faction.
[] KMT - Mainline [] KMT - Revolutionary Group
[] KMT - Independents
[NPC] Republican Party (Favors: [GMD] Autonomous Province, [Yunnan] Accept.) [NPC] Chinese Communist Party (Favors: [GMD] Province, [Yunnan] Reject.) [NPC] Communist Party of China (Favors: [GMD] Province, [Yunnan] Reject.)
a/n: A slightly longer post than usual, hope y'all enjoy it. As the crisis calms down, you will now have a 24 hour moratorium, and a 24 hour voting period as well afterwards.
The terms laid forward by the KMT would be politely rejected, the GMD seeing little use in submitting themselves to the Party's influence in the current moment, annoying the NRA and Sun Yat-Sen immensely, the former seeing their investment into the uprising wasted, and the latter seeing the southern government as yet another rival against the KMT's nationalist goals of reunification.
Well shit. Now we have a choice. Either we integrate as an autonomous province and lose our majority or we integrate into the CUF. The question is whether we want to deal with coalitions now or later.
So they've rejected the terms anyway. Should've just not asked in the first place if we weren't going to send in the troops, we knew they were autonomists.
Oh, that's a tough situation to be in. Fuck it we ball, integrate them as an autonomous province and support their offensive. China will be united one way or another. We can revisit compromises later when we hopefully have a bigger hammer to deal with them. I think we can lock them in as coalition partners.
Yunaan is a big ball of mountains and the French are angry and looking for a way to get back at the GMD. I am very doubtful that they will be successful with the quick offensive unless the NRA decides to deploy troops to support them and overstretches itself in the process, which is bad for sichuan.
I think the likely outcome of a GMD offensive is that they take some land and then stall out in bloody assault as their disorganised units fail against dug in warlord troops with french support, ending in Yunaan being a french protectorate and us losing their troops and whatever the GMD loses in the war.
On the other hand, Yunaan is a big ball of mountains with its own troops, so it would mantain its borders without additional strain on the NRA.
So im currently thinking that accepting Yunaan would be the best option, for the KMT in getting a win, for the republic in getting an extra province for free and also for the GMD in that they arent sticking their arm into the grinder
Honestly I think we should just take both the offers. Integrate them as a autonomous province and accept Yunnan. I'd rather not have the GMDs forces thrown into the mountains of someone we could've easily turned into a ally instead.
This is a bit early in the discussion but with how short the moratorium is here's the strawpoll anyway.
What's your opinion? Vote now: [] [GMD] Integrate them into the CUF., [] [GMD] Integrate them as an autonomous province of the Republic., [] [GMD] Reject their offer for integration...
[GMD] Integrate them as an autonomous province of the Republic. 41.03% (16 votes)
[Yunnan] Accept the Offer. 41.03% (16 votes)
[GMD] Integrate them into the CUF. 10.26% (4 votes)
[Yunnan] Support the GMD Offensive. 7.69% (3 votes)
[X] [GMD] Integrate them as an autonomous province of the Republic.
[X] [Yunnan] Accept the Offer.
[X] KMT - Revolutionary Group
