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Presidente's and Comandante's - A Latin American Dictator Quest

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As a general note, you should prepare yourselves to be forced to do some horse trading no matter if you keep the guerrillas in check or not. You plainly don't have enough tanks or influence to control the whole country right now, so you'll have to cut a deal with one faction or another. Abandoning the mountains weakens your position there and might not be terribly popular with some other groups, so you should keep in mind that it might make other negotiation harder.
 
Azel said:
As a general note, you should prepare yourselves to be forced to do some horse trading no matter if you keep the guerrillas in check or not. You plainly don't have enough tanks or influence to control the whole country right now, so you'll have to cut a deal with one faction or another. Abandoning the mountains weakens your position there and might not be terribly popular with some other groups, so you should keep in mind that it might make other negotiation harder.
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Hmm... I wonder if tricking them into overextending and then defeating them in territory that is not favorable to them with a less supportive populace would work.
 
Azel said:
As a general note, you should prepare yourselves to be forced to do some horse trading no matter if you keep the guerrillas in check or not. You plainly don't have enough tanks or influence to control the whole country right now, so you'll have to cut a deal with one faction or another. Abandoning the mountains weakens your position there and might not be terribly popular with some other groups, so you should keep in mind that it might make other negotiation harder.
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If we assume, that the factions we will likely have to make a deal with depends on, which area we do not secure, then not securing the mountains will of course mean strengthening the anarchists, not securing Puerto Novo with its plantations would likely strengthen the capitalists, and Coasta Gris sounds like it might be a stronghold for the communists. Letting San Miguel go would of course help FEIS. I am unsure, which factions the other places might strengthen.
 
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Ugh, I was hoping that by giving the revolutionaries a stronger hand they could be a in a position to make a deal but is it the other way around?
 
Parzival95 said:
Ugh, I was hoping that by giving the revolutionaries a stronger hand they could be a in a position to make a deal but is it the other way around?
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Well, they would likely be more willing to make a deal, if they are falling rather, than if they are winning.

I think that Land Reform will likely be a good way to either reach out to the revolutionaries or at least their support base.

Also, it is worth pointing out that our main support base, the military, likely hates the revolutionaries, so it is perhaps not the best faction to ally ourselves with.
 
Mortenkam said:
Also, it is worth pointing out that our main support base, the military, likely hates the revolutionaries, so it is perhaps not the best faction to ally ourselves with.
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Nah, the conflict of the revolutionaries is specifically pointed out as being more between them and FEIS, with the military being only sometimes participants- the military hates FEIS more
Azel said:
The commander of the ERPA, the Revolutionary People's Army of Antontierra, had spent the last four years fighting against the armed units of FEIS and to a lesser degree the military of Atontierra
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Azel said:
Vergara's most favoured goons had always hated the military and the feeling was mutual.
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DocMatoi said:
Nah, the conflict of the revolutionaries is specifically pointed out as being more between them and FEIS, with the military being only sometimes participants- the military hates FEIS more
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You might be right that the military hates FEIS more, but that does not stop them from having fought the revolutionaries and it would not look good for our military leader to loss ground to them on his first days in office.
Azel said:
ERPA - Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo de Antontierra - Revolutionary People's Army of Antontierra
A guerrilla group that has it's main supporters in the western hills and mountains of the country. They have been fighting for the last year with the military, but neither side had any great successes, leading to a drawn out stalemete. Their leader is the charismatic Comandante Maurizio Velasquez, an outspoken anarchist that is agitating against the state and even the christian faith. Despite his radical positions, he has many supporters among the indigenous people and the poor farmers that were hit the hardest by disastrous policies of Vergara's regime.
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Azel said:
[] [Deployment] Maintain a presence in the mountains. (2 Points)
The military had been fighting the ERPA guerrilla under Comandante Velasquez for about a year with little success. The poor farmers in the mountains loved him and detested the ruling regime. Some forces would need to stay in the area to keep at least some semblance of control
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On that note, I think that I will change my plan a bit, if I am going to be arguing for keeping men in the mountains.

[X] Plan: Getting Swift Justice v.2
-[X] [Speech] Promise to seek allies and investors from abroad to connect the country to the world.
-[X] [Speech] Promise a major land reform to redistribute the farmland stolen under your predecessor's rule.
-[X] [Speech] Promise the swift and harsh persecution of the previous regime and those who aided it.
-[X] [Deployment] Maintain a presence in the mountains. (2 Points)
-[X] [Deployment] Attack San Miguel. (2 Points)
-[X] [Deployment] Take the town of Blanco Brilla and arrest Vergara's cronies living there. (1 Point)
 
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[X] Plan: Foundations

Factories are nice, but food, water and homes are better.

Edit: As a skilled military general, I think we need legitimacy more than we need a head up on the secret police.
 
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[X] Plan: Foundations

As far as threats go, hardened guerillas are a greater threat than fleeing secret police, but crushing the weaker of our opponents is a easy way to score some legitimacy. Everyone hates the secret police, but the guerillas will just see it as one enemy eating the other. The military and the guerillas will never come to terms with one another considering all the bad blood between them, but what we can do is win the PR war by being the ones who took down the previous hated regime. That will hopefully begin to sap away local support from the guerillas.
 
DocMatoi said:
The thing to remember about insurgencies is that they are always rooted in political grievances, and counter insurgency that doesnt give them what they want will never work.
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I am quite certain this statement is abjectly untrue on every level. Far more insurgencies are crushed than succeed - a good example of how to do it would be the Second Chechen War. Ideally, we won't have to resort to the same brutality as the Russians, but let's not pretend guerrilla warfare is somehow an unbeatable strategy.
 
Given our man presumably knows how to war and has a reasonable amount of support, unless the rebellion has a hand of aces* it's supremely unlikely they'll actually win, at least until either our strength or popularity fails us.

Moving in to Purge them would cause a lot of damage to part of our own home, though, even if the mountains aren't particulalry valuable. Violence is probably unavoidable, but I think the hope is to make it clear both that we are signficantly stronger and willing to hear them out, and thus that they shouldn't fight to the death instead of compromise and fall in with us.

It also means less people need to die, which is always a fair goal.

(*If they take the place, is it a royal flush?)

Edit: Hey, we have stats!
I love our really high Command suite, although I'm surprsied we're so good at lying.
 
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Shine said:
Given our man presumably knows how to war and has a reasonable amount of support, unless the rebellion has a hand of aces* it's supremely unlikely they'll actually win, at least until either our strength or popularity fails us.

Moving in to Purge them would cause a lot of damage to part of our own home, though, even if the mountains aren't particulalry valuable. Violence is probably unavoidable, but I think the hope is to make it clear both that we are signficantly stronger and willing to hear them out, and thus that they shouldn't fight to the death instead of compromise and fall in with us.

It also means less people need to die, which is always a fair goal.

(*If they take the place, is it a royal flush?)

Edit: Hey, we have stats!
I love our really high Command suite, although I'm surprsied we're so good at lying.
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The big question when it comes to the guerillas is whether our own backers, that being the military, would be willing to enter negotiations with the guerillas.

Even if they are, expect some pretty heavy-handed demands from our military as reparations, demands that will likely break any attempt at a peaceful settlement.

One solution to this is if we gut our own military command and replace them with a new generation who don't particularly care for the grievances of the people they're replacing. Easier said than done of course, and weakening our military when America is breathing down our neck sounds like a disaster in the making.

Alternatively, we contain the guerillas in the mountains and ensure prosperity in the lowlands to sap support from the guerillas until they can only exist as glorified bandits. At that point, no one's going to bat an eye if we purge their remnants from the mountains.
 
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