Discord said:
[11:41 PM] R': I do predict
[11:41 PM] R': that you will regret not getting Season's Greetings
[11:41 PM] Aabcehmu: I'm going to quote that in the thread
[11:41 PM] R': Given your overall disposition to the Apocryphal Curse
[11:41 PM] R': the thread has tended to underestimate it
So the word of the QM is a tough argument to counter. The vote was neck and neck beforehand, and a lot of people were pretty happy with either option winning. In light of a strong QM warning, at least 4 people flipped CF->KoW and now the vote tally is 42 - 32. However, there is still a strong showing of Omake power pledged to CF. I'd like to unpack the warning above, and then propose an argument for why CF is a good vote even in the face of the comment above.
The main thrust of my argument comes from Rihaku's very next comment:
Discord said:
[11:59 PM]R': if you changed you voting behavior such that the Apocryphal Curse was less of a problem
[11:59 PM]R': then Apocryphal mitigation would be comparatively less valuable
[11:59 PM]R': given how Hunger approached this latest Apocryphal proc, however
[11:59 PM]R': it does seem like you need all the mitigation you can get
His endorsement of Season's Greetings comes from observing the thread's behavior. Working backwards from the most recent update, we did not vote for Shattering Blow, which had the highest probability of survival. We overwhelmingly rejected the option to Fall Back, and then chose to Hold the Line instead of Call Up an opportunity to use our Progression. (I'm still not sure how that vote lost, tbh.) Before that, the thread (narrowly) picked personal power options from Haeliel as a response to the unknown threat of a boosted AC proc. Before that, we chose to spend 50A on Haeliel, rather than Wolber or Daylian. Before
that, we (narrowly) chose Strain, seeking the Fourth and Fifth Signs.
Now, I will admit that I argued hard for most of these risky options. (Notable exceptions were SAVE with Daylian, which likely would have granted us 7th Sign via wealth acceleration, and Call Up, which would have been less expensive in terms of re-rolls). We can dispute whether the Armament was on its way without the Strain, we can dispute whether Praxis training or Signs would have been a better use of time, we can even dispute whether the Procyon fight was "interesting" or "risky and unnecessary."
But no matter what you think of the last few updates, the outcome is clear: lots of people have vowed that we will never have another 5-pick fight. I don't want to call anybody out specifically, but there are quotes in-thread and on discord saying that this shouldn't happen again. So. What is the best way to ensure that we are never forced to take a 5-pick fight?
1. Proactive risk assessment, including awareness of activity on a national, planetary, or Galactic scale.
Bloodcasting achieves this goal. It is one of the first wide-range divination abilities that Hunger has been offered personally. (Gisena's divination seems to have limited bandwidth.) Knowing that an enemy is on the way allows us to use a lot of our spells much more effectively. If nothing else, it lets us collect our Adorie Backpack for Praxis spam.
2. Strategically picking our battles.
Crimson Flare facilitates this goal. With advance knowledge of enemies, we can devise specific counters using biotechnology & blood casting. Our high-Rank allies may also have insights about solving problems that would not otherwise occur to Hunger. There have been several fights where it seemed like the enemy had an ability uniquely designed to target Hunger. With enough warning & a wide enough base of invention, Hunger could tinker up silver bullets for potential threats.
3. Caution and Variety in which tactics we use in battle.
Crimson Flare incentivizes this approach. CF!Hunger knows his enemy is coming, and can attack via blood casting from a very long distance. CF!Hunger has high rank allies, who all have combat-relevant abilities that might be a good matchup. Also, Hunger's base stats & regenerative abilities are further improved, in case we do get forced into battle.
4. Avoiding Bad Incentives.
King of Winter rewards getting close and hitting things with our sword. It rewards bringing Adorie into battle, despite her current lack of experience. This option quarters damage to both Hunger and Adorie, but it also puts them in a position to
receive more damage overall. If you want to vote for fewer options with an immediate risk of injury to Hunger & Adorie, maybe our build should incentivize approaches other than close quarters combat.
I understand that the knee-jerk reaction to QM information is basically 'compliance.' But if you look at Rihaku's argument, he is saying that we will regret missing Season's Greetings
if our behavior doesn't change. We've been promising for months IRL that Hunger will stop taking so many risks. Right now, we have the option to take a Heroic Advancement that will make it easier than ever to change our approach to risks. It will give us advance notice of incoming threats, combat-relevant allies, and ranged/esoteric methods of engagement that Hunger currently lacks.
If you vote for Crimson Flare, you're basically pre-committing to making more cautious plans with additional support from our allies. That's a play style that won't regret skipping Season's Greetings, imo. And it's a playstyle that will reward our heavy investment into our companions.
[X] The Ring of Power: Crimson Flare
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