Thank you for clarifying that my language was not appropriate. I took that first part out. Hope it's a bit less confrontational now.
A Harry Potter Quest: He who was not
- Thread starter Tabula Rasa
- Start date
- Location
- Brazil
The way i see, a whole lot of things happened in the previous months, and someone close to him died, so going all in training less because of stats and more because the type of person Jacob is means that this is a relaxing month. I dont think exploring is calming, but rather it is exciting, which is the last thing we want right now. Pretty sure next month will be filled with case rune and perhaps diary, but for now he needs rest.
SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
I was hoping next month to take both an exploration action, three runes actions and the riddle. I was thinking only 6 personal actions next month for training. Which would be constitution, empathy, alchemy and three potion training actions, that is actual potions not the skill.
I'd also like to say for the record I'd never make a plan which was contingent on so many moving parts to work like was claimed earlier in the thread, the only actions that have any risk of failure modifying the outcome of training actions nested in there is the two DADA training actions which have a 5% chance of failure each. I'd never have skill training be reliant on success from stat training it's not worth the risk.
I've also left a gap as I'm fully expecting that our level up will happen this turn and trained both cre and int. Hopefully one of them bumps up from the training this turn and then drop either 1 or both level up stat points into it. If both Cre and INT go up from training we put a point in each from the level. If only one we stat focus that one up.
There are seven skills which key of Int/Cre primarily which is why I'm very sure we never have to worry about auto level ups being an issue.
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[X] Plan This train has no brakes v4
- Location
- California
You joke, but am curious if Jacob's father's space-turner can be modified to a time-turner. Of course, he'd probably need to get a copy of a muggle physics book.
Well, to be fair: none of the plans get all our class skills to P-. The exploration plan does put potions at P-, which will be a P. Which helps in potions development.
I don't really have any plans in mind since most of my plans that had efficiency in mind were not voted in. If no brakes wins, we will have to see how the rolls go: if the rolls go well we have some cushion. Heck if the rolls go well consistently, we will have more options. If not...we will probably have to eat a Ravenclaw bonus or two (or more on really bad rolls). The idea of my plans and analysis is to minimze the need for luck.
We will have to level up 11 other skills, of which only 8 others are class skills. If plan no brakes wins, we probably would like to triage the class choices to focus on the 5 with bonuses to learning first and then try and up the class skills before too many Ravenclaw bonuses get added. Really, I was focused on getting class skills to P- not only because it would guarantee we were at above O level in all our classes, but because over the years at school, we could have 15 in all our class skills mid- 7th year and a lot of the pressure would have shifted. It also gives Jacob a pretty good all-around knowledge base.
Next turn, however, I am going to propose doing both the Riddle or Old World story, explore, and do 3 Rune Research. Then with the 6 personal, do 2 Alchemy train, 1 Potion, and 3 training on Patronus in order to work on the trait and to let us do the Hogwarts Map the turn after next. Then before the next Ravenclaw bonus, we should look into getting all the class skills to P-.
We should not do Potions training until we at least get the potion to P- (would be P if we do Explore plan). Each +1 increases the probability of success and adds on to higher DC potions rolls.
SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
Learning potions is like learning spells I believe, the marginal utility a +1 gives vs just taking the training action isn't worthwhile unless you're planning to crash train the skill up past 10 or it's gate requirement to learn the potion in the first place. The only reason i've proposed training DADA as high as I have is because it gates powerful choices that increase our capabilities in a big way for a focus we voted on and because I'm hoping we hit DADA 12 on the auto bump at the end of year one in time for the end of year tourney.
We should focus on getting bluewideye over potions skill ups. We'll have the requirements for bluewideye at the end of this turn regardless of which plan wins. Getting bluewideye opens up a lot of possibilities for us as that's essentially a permanent +1 personal action a turn if we can keep the currency reserve to afford it which should be possible if we brew 4+ potions in one go and always take an action to sell two of them.
We should focus on getting bluewideye over potions skill ups. We'll have the requirements for bluewideye at the end of this turn regardless of which plan wins. Getting bluewideye opens up a lot of possibilities for us as that's essentially a permanent +1 personal action a turn if we can keep the currency reserve to afford it which should be possible if we brew 4+ potions in one go and always take an action to sell two of them.
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- Location
- California
Well, I disagree that a +1 isn't worth it, particularly if you are trying to get a High DC potion because each bonus subtracts anytime the DC isn't met.
So, for instance, on a DC 200 potion, a +1 bonus versus a +0 bonus (assuming roll of 50):
+0
Roll 1 (DC 200)
Roll 2 (DC 150)
Roll 3 (DC 100)
Roll 4 (DC 50)
Roll 5: 50
+1
Roll 1 (DC 200)
Roll 2 (DC 149)
Roll 3 (DC 98)
Roll 4 (DC 47)
Roll 5: 50
Not a huge difference, but a significant difference. On Roll 3, there is a 2 DC difference- meaning a 2% difference towards getting the potion on roll 3. And on roll 4, there is a 3 DC difference- a 6% difference. That is a higher chance of beating a DC on 2 rolls outright and saving 1-2 actions.
So, a +1 is significant- particularly if the order doesn't make a huge difference (unless you were expecting 2 DC 100s, you could sacrifice one of the Potion Rolls to increase the Potion skill by 1.
So, for instance, on a DC 200 potion, a +1 bonus versus a +0 bonus (assuming roll of 50):
+0
Roll 1 (DC 200)
Roll 2 (DC 150)
Roll 3 (DC 100)
Roll 4 (DC 50)
Roll 5: 50
+1
Roll 1 (DC 200)
Roll 2 (DC 149)
Roll 3 (DC 98)
Roll 4 (DC 47)
Roll 5: 50
Not a huge difference, but a significant difference. On Roll 3, there is a 2 DC difference- meaning a 2% difference towards getting the potion on roll 3. And on roll 4, there is a 3 DC difference- a 6% difference. That is a higher chance of beating a DC on 2 rolls outright and saving 1-2 actions.
So, a +1 is significant- particularly if the order doesn't make a huge difference (unless you were expecting 2 DC 100s, you could sacrifice one of the Potion Rolls to increase the Potion skill by 1.
SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
It only matters on really high DC potions and even then it doesn't pay the action cost back. Yes it would eventually make a big difference as we close in on potions rank 10+ but that's not going to be for a long while and in the meantime we could just hammer the bluewideye potion and get the extra action a turn and put that on skill training permanently.
Any way it'd actually be something like
Assume flat rolls of 50 each time we also have stat modifiers to go with our potions rank (we will have 5-5 in int/cre at the end of this turn or more likely some combination of 6/5, at P- which our potions rank will be it's +5 so call it +16 to the rolls
Roll 1 (DC 200) -66
Roll 2 (DC 134) -66
Roll 3 (DC 68) -66
Roll 4 (DC 2) -66
Roll 5: 2
In this example where we roll a flat 50 every time yes it's possible that the +1 comes into play and we learn the Dc200 potion in one action less. The reality is though this basically won't happen. There's an 86% chance that the potion is learned in four actions. Adding +1 to our potions rank makes that chance 88%, for a net change of 2%.
I'm not saying we shouldn't train our skills, I'm just saying right now if we want to go for a specific potion or learn potions for the end of the year there isn't much mechanical advantage in trying to front load training for potions in the skill not when we can gain free actions by going for a potion now.
Any way it'd actually be something like
Assume flat rolls of 50 each time we also have stat modifiers to go with our potions rank (we will have 5-5 in int/cre at the end of this turn or more likely some combination of 6/5, at P- which our potions rank will be it's +5 so call it +16 to the rolls
Roll 1 (DC 200) -66
Roll 2 (DC 134) -66
Roll 3 (DC 68) -66
Roll 4 (DC 2) -66
Roll 5: 2
In this example where we roll a flat 50 every time yes it's possible that the +1 comes into play and we learn the Dc200 potion in one action less. The reality is though this basically won't happen. There's an 86% chance that the potion is learned in four actions. Adding +1 to our potions rank makes that chance 88%, for a net change of 2%.
I'm not saying we shouldn't train our skills, I'm just saying right now if we want to go for a specific potion or learn potions for the end of the year there isn't much mechanical advantage in trying to front load training for potions in the skill not when we can gain free actions by going for a potion now.
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- Location
- California
What equation or program are you suing to get those percentages?
I am asking because I find that a 2% net change when it lowers the target number by 1 each time you roll while also adding a +1 each time you roll resulting in only a 2% net change to be surprising and my grasp of probabilities is (admittedly) not great.
I am asking because I find that a 2% net change when it lowers the target number by 1 each time you roll while also adding a +1 each time you roll resulting in only a 2% net change to be surprising and my grasp of probabilities is (admittedly) not great.
- Location
- Arcadia
Then, to collate the information and summarize the current status:
Constitution 2
Creativity 4
Intellect 4
Empathy 2
Luck 4
Training success decreases with each level of that particular attribute.
100% for Constitution 1, 90% for Constitution 2, 80% for Constitution 3 etc.
Luck can't be trained but can be raised through level ups and other methods.
Charms (CRT/INT) → P-
Transfiguration (CRT/INT) → P-
Defence Against the Dark Arts (CRT/INT) → P
Potions (CRT/INT) → D+
Herbology (INT/EMP) → D-
Astronomy (INT) → D-
Ancient Runes (INT) → D-
Arithmancy & Magical Theory (CRT/INT) → T
History of Magic (INT/EMP) → D-
Legilimency & Occlumency (CRT/EMP) → D--
Alchemy (CRT/INT) → D--
Gaining a point in the Troll to Poor- (0-5) Range is 100%, Poor to Acceptable+ (6-10) is 75%, Acceptable+ to Outstanding (11-15) is 50% and Outstanding+ to SSS (16-20) is 25%.
Can't get higher than 12 if not at least 5 skills are at least 12
No skill can go higher than 15, if not at least 7 skills are 12 or higher and three are 15 or higher
No skill can go higher than 17, if not at least 10 skills are 12 or higher and five are 15 or higher
No skill can reach 20, if not at least 12 skills are 15 or higher
Assuming a worst case scenario of all the stat training rolls failing, it would remain as above without a level-up. If so, the limits for the listed skills would be either P+ or A. With a level-up, assuming that the points are put in CRT and INT, the limits would be P+ or A+
There are 9 class skills, with 2 others that would see further improvement somewhere down the line in Occlumency and Alchemy. As to the 12th skill, it remains to be seen.
Assuming no external intervention, by the end of the academic year, the class skills would be:
Charms (CRT/INT) → P+
Transfiguration (CRT/INT) → P+
Defence Against the Dark Arts (CRT/INT) → A-
Potions (CRT/INT) → P
Herbology (INT/EMP) → D+
Astronomy (INT) → D+
Ancient Runes (INT) → D+
Arithmancy & Magical Theory (CRT/INT) → D-
History of Magic (INT/EMP) → D+
The extent to which the limit of the stat buffer is neared will depend upon the plan and subsequent rolls.
Constitution 2
Creativity 4
Intellect 4
Empathy 2
Luck 4
Training success decreases with each level of that particular attribute.
100% for Constitution 1, 90% for Constitution 2, 80% for Constitution 3 etc.
Luck can't be trained but can be raised through level ups and other methods.
Charms (CRT/INT) → P-
Transfiguration (CRT/INT) → P-
Defence Against the Dark Arts (CRT/INT) → P
Potions (CRT/INT) → D+
Herbology (INT/EMP) → D-
Astronomy (INT) → D-
Ancient Runes (INT) → D-
Arithmancy & Magical Theory (CRT/INT) → T
History of Magic (INT/EMP) → D-
Legilimency & Occlumency (CRT/EMP) → D--
Alchemy (CRT/INT) → D--
Gaining a point in the Troll to Poor- (0-5) Range is 100%, Poor to Acceptable+ (6-10) is 75%, Acceptable+ to Outstanding (11-15) is 50% and Outstanding+ to SSS (16-20) is 25%.
Can't get higher than 12 if not at least 5 skills are at least 12
No skill can go higher than 15, if not at least 7 skills are 12 or higher and three are 15 or higher
No skill can go higher than 17, if not at least 10 skills are 12 or higher and five are 15 or higher
No skill can reach 20, if not at least 12 skills are 15 or higher
Assuming a worst case scenario of all the stat training rolls failing, it would remain as above without a level-up. If so, the limits for the listed skills would be either P+ or A. With a level-up, assuming that the points are put in CRT and INT, the limits would be P+ or A+
There are 9 class skills, with 2 others that would see further improvement somewhere down the line in Occlumency and Alchemy. As to the 12th skill, it remains to be seen.
Assuming no external intervention, by the end of the academic year, the class skills would be:
Charms (CRT/INT) → P+
Transfiguration (CRT/INT) → P+
Defence Against the Dark Arts (CRT/INT) → A-
Potions (CRT/INT) → P
Herbology (INT/EMP) → D+
Astronomy (INT) → D+
Ancient Runes (INT) → D+
Arithmancy & Magical Theory (CRT/INT) → D-
History of Magic (INT/EMP) → D+
The extent to which the limit of the stat buffer is neared will depend upon the plan and subsequent rolls.
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SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
Anydice 4d100+(4×(skill+stats))
Then graphing for at least as the result finding 200 on the results table.
Id explain a bit better but im typing on a touch screen phone and its not a interface i am adept with.
Then graphing for at least as the result finding 200 on the results table.
Id explain a bit better but im typing on a touch screen phone and its not a interface i am adept with.
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- Location
- California
Thank you. Perhaps it is my lack of sophistication, but do those equations actually reflect the fact that the target number lowers each time a dice is rolled (and thus a +1's effect is increased each time a dice is rolled)?
- Location
- USA
I just want to explore. I think it would be good for Jacob. The QM has basically implied that he doesn't want us to sit around the castle all month. But everyone knows about this already, and if people feel that turtling up for a month is the right move I won't badger them about it.
What I do want to know is what people don't like about my plan? Someone said that they didn't like the Hogsmeade action, that it was a deal breaker for them, but didn't bother to offer a better alternative. There aren't many actions that only cost 1 normal action, and I had to round the exploration out with something.
Also, anyone know if it is possible to get a depressed trait? Just want to know if we have to worry about getting a negative trait on top of everything else.
What I do want to know is what people don't like about my plan? Someone said that they didn't like the Hogsmeade action, that it was a deal breaker for them, but didn't bother to offer a better alternative. There aren't many actions that only cost 1 normal action, and I had to round the exploration out with something.
Also, anyone know if it is possible to get a depressed trait? Just want to know if we have to worry about getting a negative trait on top of everything else.
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SuperSonicSound
Shadowmancer of the Shadow Cabal
They are result agnostic they tell you the percentage chance of any particular result as a slice of all possible results. In this instance the chance of any result is worked out ahead of time it doesnt care about dice order. Its looking at the entire result spance and saying in 84% of all dice roll combinations possible the result is 200 or better.
I asked about looking for RoR but no one replied to that, other options that I have thought about, look for spells like permanent expansion and/or permanent lightweight charms so Jacob can carry his stuff everywhere(if Jacob goes on exploration, it'd be a good idea to make some potions for certain scenarios and have on hand right?), there's a water repellent spell right? be good to learn before going into the lake or learn how to speak to merpeople, Jacob did spot them before
- Location
- USA
Thanks for the feedback. In the future, I'll put more consideration towards the look for spells option and what we can get out of that.
In regards to the RoR, I don't know how we can possibly find it without a hint. The closest thing I can think of would involve asking the House Elves if they know of any secrets that we currently don't know. The problem with that is I don't think it is IC enough to actually vote for that. Because Jacob doesn't like having solutions handed to him, he wants to work them out himself. So asking for a secret passage/room might be out.
Nando
they, them
Ah, I see what you mean. Hmm. Not sure, actually, how to do that calculation, since the target numbers of each subsequent roll is depending on the previous rolls results.
So, for this we'll have to actually count every roll separately. For simplicities sake I'll assume rolls of 50 - that is 66 and 67 respectively - for all rolls with a 0% chance of success.
| DC 200, 0% chance of success | DC 200, 0% chance of success |
| DC 134, 0% chance of success | DC 133, 0% chance of success |
| DC 68, 49% chance of success | DC 66, 52% chance of success |
| Assuming we rolled under 68, on average the new DC is 26, 91% chance of success | Assuming we rolled under 66, on average the new DC is 24,5 so 25, 93% chance of success |
| Assuming we rolled under 26, on average the new DC is 5, 100% chance of success | Assuming we rolled under 25, on average the new DC is 4, 100% chance of success |
Going to look for stuff in the library? "Be creative!"?
There were suggestions, some where kind of shot down by QM (drawing/painting), but still...aaand you already replied again
it is kinda hard without meta gaming it huh? how about
[] Do Something!
-[] Explore the seventh floor for secret passageways and/or rooms
think that would work? if it does it could also be applied for the other floors of Hogwarts
I enjoy the story and exploration is more fun (for me) than stats grinding for sure. I'd like us to focus on the Riddle case, I find 'internal' investigations more interesting than outside adventures but I wouldn't mind exploring the surroundings.
However, I don't find the Hogsmeade action appealing at all and I hope that future plan makers won't take it, knowing they risk losing voters by taking it. I can't make that point if I vote for the exploration plan so I don't.
At the end of the day, I trust the QM will make a good story no matter the winning plan so I'm not too sad if either wins.
However, I don't find the Hogsmeade action appealing at all and I hope that future plan makers won't take it, knowing they risk losing voters by taking it. I can't make that point if I vote for the exploration plan so I don't.
At the end of the day, I trust the QM will make a good story no matter the winning plan so I'm not too sad if either wins.
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Who said anything about joking?
You realize Hogmeade is how we make money, right? I don't think money is too important right now, but don't entirely write it off. It can even lead to exciting adventures, like running away from Dementors! Probably not the best example to use as a 'for' argument, but you probably understand what I mean.
- Location
- Somewhere else
[X] These are for Exploration Only