Rihaku's participation in the build discussion is one of the parts of his QM style that I appreciate the most. I can't comment on the entire discussion, but from page 1610 onward, there were several Devil's Advocacy posts that are worth considering. I think there are more facets of the decision to consider, but his points are worth reiterating emphatically, so I have tried to do so with this effort post.
(700 Words)
TLDR:
1. Undying Vanguard isn't a guarantee of safety
2. Undying Vanguard doesn't play nicely with Oblique Methods
3. Oblique Methods itself has room for a wide variance in outcomes, and the outcomes for 0-Arete choices might not be worth the lost time
Rihaku's Discussion Questions said:
But can raw tankiness alone stop the Apocryphal Curse?
Indeed, and now that Hunger's appeared within range of direct observation...
It looks like Oblique Means is currently ahead, but so is purchasing Undying Vanguard... in the event that you have to spend Arete to extract value from that crucially spent hour, that could be quite an anti-synergistic combination!
Hm... do you guys have a plan in place if Oblique Means delivers an uncooperative or actively hostile Astral Spirit to you? Rescuing Versch, an Armament, is certainly not something most Astral entities would be up for.
Short rewriting someone's values, a competent negotiator understands that they should have something to offer, be it carrot or stick, ideally both!
Given that you are almost certainly taking Adorie along and also strongly want to buy Undying Vanguard (is this necessarily wise?), non-Oblique members may want to consolidate into an action plan! If Undying Vanguard goes through you'll only have about 3 Arete left to potentially spend on Supreme Enclosure / Gisena Artifact (if any) acquisitions...
With all due respect to Mister R, the first post seems pretty much like fear mongering. Undying Vanguard does not need to stop the Apocryphal curse alone! It is a component in Hunger's toolkit, and it makes Hunger's other abilities more effective. UV buys time for Hunger to assist his friends. If we ever buy Iridescence, it will make esoteric attacks like the one used against Versch much less effective. That one 5-Arete purchase cannot stop the Apocryphal Curse in its tracks is not a strong argument for opposing UV during this update.
However, Rihaku does invoke the name of a more powerful curse: The Doom of Anti-synergy. My strongest argument for Undying Vanguard is that we have the momentum
now, for this update specifically. Having it now provides protection against traitors and sneak attacks. However, traitors and sneak attacks are always a danger. If we choose Oblique Methods, then there is no
immediate threat that will be solved with Undying Vanguard.
Meanwhile, thread activity during this update cycle has felt a bit slow: 125 posts between Rage of War and the latest update, and then 163 posts discussing the build options at the 26 hour mark (approx). By contrast, the discussion for the story post where we stomped Ber had 148 posts, and the build vote about the Fish picks had 346 posts (although admittedly some of that was dealing with me having a public meltdown).
It might not be fair to ask the Arete miners to push hard for an omake storm when the discussion modifier is so
average. I personally only have about 1000 words of (creative!) fan-content in reserve. It is not a guarantee that other effort posters will be inspired by the options that cost Arete in the Oblique Methods update. That would leave us with a budget of between 3 Arete (minimum) and 6-7 Arete (going by 2 arete per update x2 for Aabcehmu's radical Arete generation modifier).
Oblique Methods seems particularly dependent on Arete to deliver results. There is mention of Royalist aristocrats besieged in their estates: that's a potential Arete expenditure. There is mention of Astral Beings with esoteric utility effects: that's a potential Arete expenditure. There is mention of rapid Artifact creation by Gisena: you best believe that's an Arete expenditure. Given Undying Vanguard's strong support, Oblique Means voters should consider whether the 0-Arete versions of each of these oblique methods of attack are more valuable to Hunger than an additional hour or hours will be to the Lord Protector.
At the final calculation, that's what we are choosing between. The Lord Protector has a head start, so any action that we choose needs to gain ground to make up for the time we lost to our Fishing trip. If we beeline to Versch, there is likely a trap. Sure. But if we
don't beeline to Versch, the LP is only going to compound traps on top of traps, preparations on top of preparations. Someone upthread asked whether the 25th hour of prep is more valuable to the LP than the 1st hour of Prep for Hunger. That's a good question, but it needs to be modified:
Is the 25th hour of prep more valuable to the LP than the 1st hour of prep is for a Hunger who only has 3-5 Arete to spend?
As I mentioned above, there are some considerations that aren't addressed here, like where Adorie goes. But those will have to wait for a different effort post to be aired.