A Simple Transaction I

Unelemental · Jun 3, 2020

[X] The Quickest Route
[X] Conservative

It's like, if I don't trust our luck, what am I even doing going to the Temple of Serious Business? I'm not ready for the Truly Scenic Views yet, but a 10% improvement to effectiveness and qualitatively better picks in preparation for the dungeon seem worth it to me. There's a 50% chance of it being Not That Dangerous and a 30% of it being Kind Of Scenic!

vali · Jun 3, 2020

[X] The Quickest Route
[X] Risky

Picked because +10% effectiveness and decent rewards without being excessively dangerous. That last roll got me real spooked about a 5% chance of death.

I was thinking of voting conservative, but worse comes to worse we can raise Gisinea from the dead. It can't be that hard.

Just a causal bit of temple exploration, poke around a little and scope things out.

OctarineShrike · Jun 3, 2020

[x]The Scenic Route
[x]Conservative

Not sure how many people are actually voting for this because of the earlier tally based confusion but here goes.

BrainInAJar · Jun 3, 2020

Saying we don't need picks when we can spend Arete is kind of whack when we already choose +1 pick. Currently experience will give a better return than Arete, especially at the 3-pick breakpoint. Whether we spend Arete on top of that to increase our odds of survival is another matter. With Quickest, even the worst possible result won't kill us, even though we'll likely need tactics for safety.

Wolfy · Jun 3, 2020

[X] The Really Scenic Route
[X] Risky

YOLT I guess? I'm not really happy with general lack of impetus in the thread, as Rihaku seems to be the only one making arguments for picks. Why did people pick the option if they have no fucking clue what to do with it..

Rihaku · Jun 3, 2020

BrainInAJar said:
Saying we don't need picks when we can spend Arete is kind of whack when we already choose +1 pick. Currently experience will give a better return than Arete, especially at the 3-pick breakpoint. Whether we spend Arete on top of that to increase our odds of survival is another matter. With Quickest, even the worst possible result won't kill us, even though we'll likely need tactics for safety.

You chose +1 pick, so you can get 2 picks! That's quite efficient.

Ultimately it's about power. How much power are you actually getting for the risk? If you can get an acceptable amount of power with minimal risk, you should take it, as any other long-term policy will lead to death in even the medium term! If you can take two 7-Arete options, that would be a great amount of power for the risk, and you get a comfy update and +relationships as well!

Wolfy said:
[X] The Really Scenic Route
[X] Risky

YOLT I guess? I'm not really happy with general lack of impetus in the thread, as Rihaku seems to be the only one making arguments for picks. Why did people pick the option if they have no fucking clue what to do with it..

It's all about reaching critical mass for conversations. That's why it's best to have consistent times for when people are online and likely to be interacting in the thread. Half the discussion-generating value of an update is in its coordination of disparate actors!

Shard · Jun 3, 2020

I doubt we can get another 6 Arete within the next update & build vote.

Our best shot is probably a 2pick/7arete option.

Sickul · Jun 3, 2020

I feel like even though the Really Scenic Route is dangerous, it allows us to fight together as a party. Then once we capitalize on the power of this, we can separate at the Temple in such a way to maintain safety.

I think there are tactics we can use even if we get a dangerous monster, because of Hunger's current build. It's high on tankiness and evasion. And it even allows one death. We could jump into the open maw of a monster and cut it up from the inside and still be able to walk away thanks to our second stage.

Wolfy · Jun 3, 2020

Really Scenic Route is also extremely likely to maim, if not kill, our companions, which would more or less force us to leave someone for dead or move into dungeon by ourselves. And going in dungeon without Gisena is .. highly inadvisable. Picking something like Undying Vanguard+Bright Shine would help there, although that's spending Arete just to patch up immediate issues rather than advancing in meaningful way. Again.

One strategy would be spending few days to stash Zea and Verse somewhere safe, then using Quickest to get to dungeon so we can enter it with Gisena. Of course, finding a safe spot for Verse is a feat in of itself.

vali · Jun 3, 2020

Wolfy said:
YOLT I guess? I'm not really happy with general lack of impetus in the thread, as Rihaku seems to be the only one making arguments for picks. Why did people pick the option if they have no fucking clue what to do with it..

When you find a secret self-disintegrating treasure map inside a legendary magical fish you have to follow it. That's just how it is; I don't make the rules here.

There are lots of confusing details about this map. Normally, the purpose of a map is to help someone reach a location, so making that map self-destruct and then hiding it in the belly of a fish seems counterproductive. Having to go around feeding bottles to fishes sounds like a serious time investment. Unless the map was meant for the fish all along and we just yanked it's invitation?

What I'm saying here is that if this is a trap then it's a really well done one and I want to take the time to admire the steel jaws and take a sniff at the bait.

Shard · Jun 3, 2020

Has the Mondo Bait succeeded in its true objective all the while?!

Rihaku · Jun 3, 2020

Shard said:
I doubt we can get another 6 Arete within the next update & build vote.

Our best shot is probably a 2pick/7arete option.

You could easily get a 7-Arete and 2-Arete option! That's still considerable power, and there might be time (with good thread activity!) to get another 7-Arete option before the Temple ends. It's certainly possible to achieve if you take Really Scenic (+1 Arete) and are willing to go into Arete Debt for that second 7-cost (+1 effective Arete).

You currently have 8 + 1 (Arete Debt), you'd need 16 effective Arete for 7x2+2, you'd need to generate 7 Arete by at latest the second to last encounter in the Temple. If you could afford it and choose advancements wisely, you could complete the Temple with a very reasonable degree of risk! Fanwork output is unlikely to massively increase, but discussions have a good amount of room to grow.

ImperatorV · Jun 3, 2020

So, let's do some short analysis.

Scenic Route gets us a 30% chance of a bonus, with no risk at all and 2 picks. It also gets us relationship ups.

Quickest Route gets us 3 picks minimum, a +10% effectiveness, a 20% chance of debuff, and a 30% chance of a boss fight (which brings great rewards but also the chance of debuff). Of those, only the 20% chance of debuff with no boss fight bonuses is really bad, as if we get the boss fight the rewards will make up for potential injuries.

Really Scenic Route has a guaranteed boss fight, with a 45% chance of something that has a good chance of seriously injuring us, killing us, or killing a party member, and a 5% chance of no save just die. It gets +0.25 rank and +1 Arete as well.

Now, Quickest Route only has a 20% chance of net loss, and even then it's just a debuff, not anything permanent. In exchange, it has much better baseline rewards. Comparing Scenic Route to Quickest, Scenic is only better if we would have rolled a major bonus on Scenic and on top of that rolled the debuff if we'd gone Quickest. Those odds are not great.

Really Scenic is just too risky for my taste. Those top tier monsters are just too dangerous.

Shard · Jun 3, 2020

Rihaku said:
You could easily get a 7-Arete and 2-Arete option! That's still considerable power, and there might be time (with good thread activity!) to get another 7-Arete option before the Temple ends. It's certainly possible to achieve if you take Really Scenic (+1 Arete) and are willing to go into Arete Debt for that second 7-cost (+1 effective Arete).

You currently have 8 + 1 (Arete Debt), you'd need 16 effective Arete for 7x2+2, you'd need to generate 7 Arete by at latest the second to last encounter in the Temple. If you could afford it and choose advancements wisely, you could complete the Temple with a very reasonable degree of risk! Fanwork output is unlikely to massively increase, but discussions have a good amount of room to grow.

I personally do not like planning around having major amounts of fanworks and discussion Arete, since it emplaces a sort of obligation to output them. Thus, no second 7 Arete option.

Rihaku · Jun 3, 2020

Shard said:
I personally do not like planning around having major amounts of fanworks and discussion Arete, since it emplaces a sort of obligation to output them. Thus, no second 7 Arete option.

The thread implicitly plans around a given rate of fanwork production whenever the call to save for an EFB-equivalent occurs!

ImperatorV said:
So, let's do some short analysis.

Scenic Route gets us a 30% chance of a bonus, with no risk at all and 2 picks. It also gets us relationship ups.

Quickest Route gets us 3 picks minimum, a +10% effectiveness, a 20% chance of debuff, and a 30% chance of a boss fight (which brings great rewards but also the chance of debuff). Of those, only the 20% chance of debuff with no boss fight bonuses is really bad, as if we get the boss fight the rewards will make up for potential injuries.

Really Scenic Route has a guaranteed boss fight, with a 45% chance of something that has a good chance of seriously injuring us, killing us, or killing a party member, and a 5% chance of no save just die. It gets +0.25 rank and +1 Arete as well.

Now, Quickest Route only has a 20% chance of net loss, and even then it's just a debuff, not anything permanent. In exchange, it has much better baseline rewards. Comparing Scenic Route to Quickest, Scenic is only better if we would have rolled a major bonus on Scenic and on top of that rolled the debuff if we'd gone Quickest. Those odds are not great.

Really Scenic is just too risky for my taste. Those top tier monsters are just too dangerous.

Relationship +s aren't nothing! They can translate into real power, eventually or if you take the right advancements!

With any boss fight, there is still a serious chance of death, if relatively low. Scenic avoids that.

Cerillian · Jun 3, 2020

cheesyme said:
on the other hand, would taking some risks for a good reward, which is what the Quickest Route is AFAIK, improve our odds of being able to accomplish a successful Temple run?

I mean, by definition that depends. If the risks pay out, yes. If they don't, then no, it will make things worse. Thats what risk means. Greater risk means greater chance of undesirable results.

Since we don't know more than vague odds for what could happen with a highly dangerous monster, exceptionally dangerous monster, or epic monster, nor the odds of what awaits us at the Temple, you'll have to guess at what the risk descriptors really mean, and compare that to your own risk tolerance preferences.

What we do know:

Rihaku said:
Exceptionally dangerous: about as powerful as you, +/- 20%
Epically dangerous: overwhelmingly stronger than you

Exceptionally dangerous monsters aren't very likely to actually kill you, though moderate or major complications are very possible, as is the loss of companions. Epically dangerous monsters are likely to kill you. You may modify these odds with tactics, discussion etc, but the scale is heavy and there's ultimately a cap in what you can do without correct strategy.

So, putting that together suggests:

50% chance of moderately eventful journey (fighting monsters grants Experience worth 2 + 1 selections)

1 additional pick vs baseline scenic route; possibly less reward than the mystery box good rolls on scenic, possibly not.

20% chance of highly eventful journey (As above, but suffer a moderate complication)

As above, 1 extra pick, but also some additional problem which may or may not leave Hunger weaker than just having one less pick.

20% chance to be interrupted by a highly dangerous monster

2 extra picks vs baseline scenic, probably better rewards vs mystery box good rolls, but again, mystery box, who knows? Also, unknown chance of deleterious side effects. Possibly low odds of downside?

10% chance to be interrupted by an exceptionally dangerous monster

2 extra picks vs baseline scenic, and chance of 4 pick option, which theoretically could be about as strong as an exp option gets? Almost definitely better than best scenic result as far as gains go(but no guarantees, I guess), but also unknown chance of very severe downsides, including small but non zero chance of death and quest end, or larger but still unquantified chance of Gizena or Letriza dying. Or some other substantial penalty somewhere in that range of undesirability.

It all comes down to how well random chance will favor Hunger, in the end. So, how lucky do you feel?

Shard · Jun 3, 2020

Rihaku said:
The thread implicitly plans around a given rate of fanwork production whenever the call to save for an EFB-equivalent occurs!

And as of yet the only +Arete option that has succeeded so far is Temple of the False Moon. Perhaps the lesson to be taken here is that voters want excitement and fight scenes, lifeblood of a quest.

Looking at the like counts, Build Vote posts have less of them compared to story posts.

BrainInAJar · Jun 3, 2020

Rihaku said:
You chose +1 pick, so you can get 2 picks! That's quite efficient.

Ultimately it's about power. How much power are you actually getting for the risk? If you can get an acceptable amount of power with minimal risk, you should take it, as any other long-term policy will lead to death in even the medium term! If you can take two 7-Arete options, that would be a great amount of power for the risk, and you get a comfy update and +relationships as well!

Problem is getting that 14 Arete though. Especially considering if we get 14 Arete, saving for an EFB immediately becomes highly tempting, making 3-pick options even more crucial for flexibility in decision-making. And it's kind of rude to put that pressure on content creators anyway.

For possible picks, let me go through past build votes to check.

Since like Undying Echo, Thousand Cuts didn't cost any picks and we already have Fell-Handed Strike it's possible that we'd be able to choose something crazy like Valour plus Cuts for an insane increase in offensive power. Even if Cuts now takes a pick, it plus two Echoes is still pretty good.

We could also go something like Rank plus Maw; since more Rank will likely be incredibly useful when navigating the Temple and for finding stuff inside it while still being a great combat boost. Maw of course shores up our offensive power and gives absolutely insane sustain now that we have two forms. Imagine having to overcome Maw's combat regen not once but twice; it's ridiculous.

We could also just finally pick El Stats by getting triple Echoes and Vanguard. Maximally increases our physical stats; which now help not only us but our companions; really synergistic pick.

Just grabbing Undying Echoes and two Opalescence still gives a ton of stats for just two Arete, great if we are seeking to save. We could replace one of the Opalescences with Cuts or Maw to get a pretty generalist build, albeit expensively at nine Arete; and Undying Echo on it's own is pretty inefficient stat-wise.

Rihaku said:
Relationship +s aren't nothing! They can translate into real power, eventually or if you take the right advancements!

With any boss fight, there is still a serious chance of death, if relatively low. Scenic avoids that.

Kind of late to start worrying about small chances of death now that we have chosen Temple. Relationship plusses are very good but I'm pretty sure wouldn't help at the Temple, which is our main concern.

We are a Progression-type Cursebearer, we want more rewards for progression. The fact that we won't die outright is enough for me to pick Quickest, but even from a just risk-reward perspective I think It's worth it. If the Temple is so dangerous, we need all the help we can get, and we get more from Quickest than from Scenic on average. That's why I prefer it.

Rihaku · Jun 3, 2020

Shard said:
And as of yet the only +Arete option that has succeeded so far is Temple of the False Moon. Perhaps the lesson to be taken here is that voters want excitement and fight scenes, lifeblood of a quest.

Looking at the like counts, Build Vote posts have less of them compared to story posts.

The lesson has always been that voters, lacking a strong coordination and commitment mechanism, typically go for the shiny before them! Which is not necessarily the wrong decision most of the time.

Updates are of course the most popular, though Nature of Magic has one of the highest counts in the thread. And yet word count is always finite!

BrainInAJar said:
Problem is getting that 14 Arete though. Especially considering if we get 14 Arete, saving for an EFB immediately becomes highly tempting, making 3-pick options even more crucial for flexibility in decision-making.

You guys picked Temple, give up on saving Arete if you seriously want to live! Those things are distant dreams now...

BrainInAJar said:
We are a Progression-type Cursebearer, we want more rewards for progression. The fact that we won't die outright is enough for me to pick Quickest, but even from a just risk-reward perspective I think It's worth it. If the Temple is so dangerous, we need all the help we can get, and we get more from Quickest than from Scenic on average. That's why I prefer it.

You're paying a significant amount of risk for 1 more pick, when much of the power of this phase can be acquired through Arete as well! 20% chance of a complication that nerfs you, 30% additional chance of a fight with good odds of nerfing you and some chance of slaying you! Or you could take no risk and get a 30% chance of a free buff for the marginal cost of only 1 pick!

Cerillian · Jun 3, 2020

BrainInAJar said:
Kind of late to start worrying about small chances of death now that we have chosen Temple. Relationship plusses are very good but I'm pretty sure wouldn't help at the Temple, which is our main concern.

We are a Progression-type Cursebearer, we want more rewards for progression. The fact that we won't die outright is enough for me to pick Quickest, but even from a just risk-reward perspective I think It's worth it. If the Temple is so dangerous, we need all the help we can get, and we get more from Quickest than from Scenic on average. That's why I prefer it.

I mean, we can just decide the Temple is not worth it, turn around, and leave after losing our face to an acid spray trap a couple times or something. It's not as if Hunger has a death-geas forcing him to delve this particular ruin.

Although, could you clarify for me? I'm not sure what you mean between when you say, paraphrasing a bit here, 'We definitely could die' and 'we definitely won't outright die.' Is it just that the former requires Hunger to have undesirable rolls twice, as opposed to only needing to fail on the first roll for the second? Overall, I'm not seeing much of a difference, as far as risk assessment goes. Both possibilities lead to death; one is just harder to math the odds for.

Talace · Jun 3, 2020

BrainInAJar said:
We could also go something like Rank plus Maw; since more Rank will likely be incredibly useful when navigating the Temple and for finding stuff inside it while still being a great combat boost. Maw of course shores up our defensive power and gives absolutely insane sustain now that we have two forms. Imagine having to overcome Maw's combat regen not once but twice; it's ridiculous.

That's actually a pretty insane synergy to think about. I wonder if there are other hidden synergies, like using our intangibility to pass Fell-Handed Stroke through armor or combining What Rains May Come and Pitiless Maw to drastically increase party durability.

Shard · Jun 3, 2020

Rihaku said:
The lesson has always been that voters, lacking a strong coordination and commitment mechanism, typically go for the shiny before them! Which is not necessarily the wrong decision most of the time.

Updates are of course the most popular, though Nature of Magic has one of the highest counts in the thread. And yet word count is always finite!

Emotively speaking, going for the shiny immediately is actually correct in a quest perspective. Humans have a 'utility cap'. If by foregoing food today I could acquire three times as much food tomorrow, my net utility would be diminished. Foregoing access to a computer for a month in order to get one with 10x computational capability would have a similar result for me.

Then there's the fact that a 2 Arete option selected now, will have impact in every update till the quest's end. If we keep foregoing shinies, will we be worn out and drained, an engine stripped of it's fuel? Something to consider from the meta perspective. And of course some updates are extremely effective from a wordcount:ratings ratio, like To Catch a Fish, for example.. Although that might simply be the result of a much-needed injection of humor and memes into the story, that crucial part of a quest's balance dieting.

LordOfMurder · Jun 3, 2020

Can we not take multi pick options and arete options at the same time? Or will we just not be offered an affordable combination?

At any rate as risky as it is the true scenic path's easiest fight gives us 5 picks with a chance at a 4 pick option and the harder fights give us multiple 3 or 4 pick options. If we can secure one of those and an opportunity to spend arete then we should be set for the temple.

It's also intersting that this is the actual path laid out on the map and it's even got such tempting bait as an actual findross concentration. Just how powerful is the apocryphal curse that it was able to distort reality enough in order to lay this trap for us?

Rihaku · Jun 3, 2020

LordOfMurder said:
At any rate as risky as it is the true scenic path's easiest fight gives us 5 picks with a chance at a 4 pick option and the harder fights give us multiple 3 or 4 pick options. If we can secure one of those and an opportunity to spend arete then we should be set for the temple.

It depends on how well you choose! A [2 + 7 Arete, 2-pick] plan from Scenic Route could well produce better results than a [7 Arete, 4-pick] plan from Quickest, depending on which advancements you decide to pursue! Many strategies are viable, but none guarantee victory here.

BrainInAJar · Jun 3, 2020

Rihaku said:
You're paying a significant amount of risk for 1 more pick, when much of the power of this phase can be acquired through Arete as well! 20% chance of a complication that nerfs you, 30% additional chance of a fight with good odds of nerfing you and some chance of slaying you! Or you could take no risk and get a 30% chance of a free buff for the marginal cost of only 1 pick!

I don't think the cost of +1 pick is "marginal" considering the 3-pick options we have seen; they are usually quite a jump in power.

Cerillian said:
I mean, we can just decide the Temple is not worth it, turn around, and leave after losing our face to an acid spray trap a couple times or something. It's not as if Hunger has a death-geas forcing him to delve this particular ruin.

We voted to explore the Temple, in a Meta sense, voting to just leave after facing hurdles would invalidate the point of that vote. We are commited to this, because we in fact voted for it.

Cerillian said:
Although, could you clarify for me? I'm not sure what you mean between when you say, paraphrasing a bit here, 'We definitely could die' and 'we definitely won't outright die.' Is it just that the former requires Hunger to have undesirable rolls twice, as opposed to only needing to fail on the first roll for the second? Overall, I'm not seeing much of a difference, as far as risk assessment goes. Both possibilities lead to death; one is just harder to math the odds for.

Tactics and discussion improves the odds of victory when facing a monster, simply, something we will get an opportunity for compared to 5% instant death. It's not something we are powerless towards, correct strategy can make the influence of dice minimal. It's definitely not just "they both can lead to death, therefore, they are the same". We can mitigate one far better than the other.

Rihaku said:
It depends on how well you choose! A [2 + 7 Arete, 2-pick] plan from Scenic Route could well produce better results than a [7 Arete, 4-pick] plan from Quickest, depending on which advancements you decide to pursue! Many strategies are viable, but none guarantee victory here.

But conversely, having 4-picks and nine Arete expands both the pool and quality of advancements significantly, making it much more likely we will choose better options. Scenic puts much more pressure on the next build vote due to that. Freedom of choice can be a bonus all on its own.

A Simple Transaction I

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