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A Game of Crowns (Mafia)

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Cyricubed said:
I Honestly think we're wrapping way to up on set-up spec all of a suddent and honestly...

starting to scumread Comi more because it seems he latched to Even's speculation and is pushing it as fact in every oppurtunity.
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I've denied their 6+ scum theory, I disagree strongly with their Nictis=scum killer theory, and I'm even providing the other alternatives in the set-up spec, with analysis on each of them. I wouldn't say that any of them are right but I do think that first one on my list is both interesting game design and reasonable in the fiction and known game information. However, I am growing a bit more on the two team design a bit, but it seems somewhat swingy not that 5 scum isn't swingy but being disorganized balances that out fairly significantly (but man could that death spiral).

It doesn't help that my entire list of suspects are all on one side of the vote. Which indicates either scum bussing for last-minute town-cred or a scum-promoted lynch. (Now I still think it is fair to assume that I'm scum protecting scum Pyrros but that requires either to assume I'm a ninja roleblocker, or that one person on the lynch Pyrros train is the scum roleblocker, and that is what makes me more confident in Pyrros's innocense... but I really wish they you know would be fighting for it too. :V
 
Cyricubed said:
I Honestly think we're wrapping way to up on set-up spec all of a suddent and honestly...

starting to scumread Comi more because it seems he latched to Even's speculation and is pushing it as fact in every oppurtunity.
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Set up spec is extremely important. If we know how scum are aligned we know what actions make sense from whom.
 
Well, it's important to a point. We can make guesses, but going too deep into the rabbit hole can cloud your judgement. You can miss obvious things right in front of you, or even outright ignore them because it's not part of your speculation. And at the end of the day, there's only so much speculation can do for you with limited information. Also, focusing too heavily on the mechanical aspect of the game rather than the social deduction part isn't a good thing a good deal of the time.
 
Call it fear-mongering but I'm concerned of the potential of the game just being over after this phase, and from my perspective, the way that scum is pushing for that is through the Pyrros lynch. Because in the case of a town Pyrros the 3 man scum-team exists on the list voting for them because I can remove myself as potential scum, and Evenstar as potential scum as those supporting DG's lynch. I truthfully can not do so with Pyrros (but its kinda a forced vote from them regardless of alignment).

And I once again find it fair for others to assume I am scum beside Pyrros from their perspective, defending an ally (I honestly don't really see where people can make the argument for me being misplaced town with confidence because from the outside I don't think I would) and from my viewpoint Pyrros is scum only happens in the following: if single scum remaining (very very very unlikely), or in two remaining their Ally is DG (Possible last-minute bus for free town-cred hoping to coast the rest of the game, I'd call this the most likely scenario), or three scum... where um DG is still scum and then just one of Cyric/1k/hobo is the last ally (I guess this strat could work but I think better options would've been available) or in the strange almost as unlikely as Pyrros=last scum world where 2 of Cyric/1k/Hobo are scum with Pyrros who decided to not make any moves to protect their ally for victory... which honestly is so insane I don't know why they would ever choose to make that play.

This is how I see it, and man if I'm wrong and Pyrros is legitimately scum, I'm going to have some interesting questions for scum post-game.
 
Ok, finally finished my grading. Now can think seriously, but then sleep.
This is my last post for the night. Dunno where it's going yet.
two incommunicado scum factions totalling 5 makes most sense to me. Explains Nictis death,
5 individuals makes some sense.
4 traditional mafia basically forces C3 town to explain Nictis death.
I think 4 disorg. scum makes no sense. Nigh unwinnable.

Evidence is... in favor of MYLO? I'm waffling on that.
I think I have to vote with the assumption this is MYLO. If it's a wrong assumption then resulting mislynches won't hurt much. If it''s a right assumption mislynch = loss.

Assuming MYLO, then DG's tracker claim is not very town indicative- because successfully getting a townie killed is a guarentee of victory. If MYLO, we can assume PW XOR DG
 
I mean honestly the thing that's got me scumreading you more and more is actually you going 'you know, it's totally okay and understandable to think I'm scum' in like.. every post, @ComiTurtle :p
 
1KBestK said:
I mean honestly the thing that's got me scumreading you more and more is actually you going 'you know, it's totally okay and understandable to think I'm scum' in like.. every post, @ComiTurtle :p
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Well, the problem is a big part of my read can only be made from my position (knowing with certainty that I myself am town) and thus that can't be properly used by others as evidence and I can only explain how my view fits into the puzzle as a proper piece and not something mismatched. Because only I know I'm town, and in my feared set-up I'm pleading to one town player in a crowd of three and that's it and I can't easily differentiate any of that group from another without making leaps of faith so I'm at a loss really.
 
ComiTurtle said:
Well, the problem is a big part of my read can only be made from my position (knowing with certainty that I myself am town) and thus that can't be properly used by others as evidence and I can only explain how my view fits into the puzzle as a proper piece and not something mismatched. Because only I know I'm town, and in my feared set-up I'm pleading to one town player in a crowd of three and that's it and I can't easily differentiate any of that group from another without making leaps of faith so I'm at a loss really.
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For what it's worth, I get where you're coming from, but at this point I'm kinda comfortable enough with my lynch that yeah, you are coming off as fear mongering. At this stage, changing my vote would kinda be a leap of faith on my part, too. Even if you could convince me we're in MYLO, which, sure, we could be, I'd still be voting for Pyrros. Please feel free to reserve the right to tell me 'I told you so' if I get us all killed, but yeah, the desperation has me tasting a little more blood than I was previously.
 
Pt. 2

Assuming MYLO, then DG's tracker claim is not very town indicative- because successfully getting a townie killed is a guarentee of victory. If MYLO, we can acceptably assume PW XOR DG is scum.

Under the world where tracker claim is true, scum team is likely PW + 1K + CT. Arguments for this are earlier, don't bear repeating. It's with very high probability PW + 1K + someone. I'd like this to be true.
Where tracker claim is false, scum team is DG + some people. It's probably 1K + C3, but that's getting speculative. A second look at C3 +DG claim interaction to see if maybe the whole thing was staged?

If this is MYLO, then there are 5 scum. By pidgeonhole pricnicple, at least one must be on PW vote Maybe 1K or C3 is saccing scum ally for cred, maybe doing a gambit and a last minute swap. As is I gonna (essentially) swap to DG.

So I really hope to not be up by 7 AM. Evenstar went to bed at smart times, and might be up in time to react smart. Also, even if I'm not super sure on the quality of their judgement, I at least know they aren't malicious.
Right now an Evenstar vote is a lunch DimensionGuy vote. Treat this as a lynch DG vote for future reads.
[X] Evenstar
 
InterstellarHobo said:
@1KBestK
To clarify, do you think DG's tracking is honest, or do you just think there's no risk in testing it?
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I think it's a clean enough claim, and since we have so few PRs around it seems like a pretty believable claim too, but I'm not 100%. So, I'd say I believe it, probably a bit more than I believe PW's, but not by a huge margin? I also do believe there's a good chance we're in a relatively safe enough spot to test if it's true or not. It's not that there's no risk, it's just that at the moment I'm thinking there's a greater chance we have a day before MYLO if it's 2-2 or 3-1 or w/e. Couple that with me having a slight read against Pyrros, and comi's recent posting... I'm just kinda getting locked in at this point. Nobody's really presented much of anything to change my mind from my POV.
 
mesonoxian said:
I think the simplest explanations are PyrrosWarrior is scum or DG is lying. Of the two, I think I buy DGs claim.

[X] Lynch PyrrosWarrior

@DimensionalGuy have you put any thought into who you'll be trackign tonight?
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Well, yes, but I think that I'll keep that to myself, and reveal the results tomorrow, provided that I survive the night.
mesonoxian said:
@DimensionalGuy can you explain why you chose your targets to track each night?
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I believe I did this earlier, but I have no problems repeating myself.
Night 1 - Cyricubed.
Night 1 was all about picking a single random veteran, and seeing what happened. Cyri didn't leave much of an impression on me that day, so I decided to check them out.
Night 2 - Comiturtle.
This was due to the general suspicion that I had towards the turtles. I wished to see if Comi would contradict their claim about not being able to visit.
Night 3 - Absum.
I wanted to confirm the claim absum made as best I could.
Night 4 - PyrrosWarrior.
Basically up between 1KbestK and PyrrosWarrior for me. I choose PyrrosWarrior as they had claimed Vanilla, and thus any movement from them would give me more information.
 
[x] Lynch PyrossWarrior

I want to see this flip.

IH's continued waffling and ultimate delegation of his vote to me is a bad look. I'm tempted to just vote him outright, but I want to resolve the DG/PW thing.

I really hope we aren't in MYLO.
 
Well, I'm up in time, and I'm decidedly not a fan of Evenstar's reasoning. I'm sticking with the vote I last argued for.
@Evenstar
You might want to switch that to lynching PyrrosWarrior. You gots a typo there.

[X] Lynch DimensionGuy
 
Okay I'm even more convinced IH is scumbuddy with Pyrros. I agree with Evenstar the waffling and immediete jump off as Even changes votes isn't a good look.

InterstellarHobo said:
If this is MYLO, then there are 5 scum. By pidgeonhole pricnicple, at least one must be on PW vote Maybe 1K or C3 is saccing scum ally for cred, maybe doing a gambit and a last minute swap. As is I gonna (essentially) swap to DG.
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And this sounds like: Well Pyrros can be scum, but I think they're not, but hey if they are we should Lynch these people but I'm gonna vote for this guy because... ? And they're only reasoning for voting DG is because they've been throwing shade and focusing only on the DG half, it's like they're purposely ignoring the PW half and I don't like that.

Christ I didn't want to think it was Mylo but with that reaction I'm thinking it is.
 
And with that I might be able to respond before day ends but work is more important.
 
Cyricubed said:
Okay I'm even more convinced IH is scumbuddy with Pyrros. I agree with Evenstar the waffling and immediete jump off as Even changes votes isn't a good look.



And this sounds like: Well Pyrros can be scum, but I think they're not, but hey if they are we should Lynch these people but I'm gonna vote for this guy because... ? And they're only reasoning for voting DG is because they've been throwing shade and focusing only on the DG half, it's like they're purposely ignoring the PW half and I don't like that.

Christ I didn't want to think it was Mylo but with that reaction I'm thinking it is.
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No, you're entirely misrepresenting that argument. Like, I'm not sure how you got what you did from that.

The argument: Under assumption of MYLO, DG's claim is NAI. Also under the assumption of MYLO, at least one scum is voting for PW. (We can't say anything definitive about who, or how many, but at least one.) I don't think scum would self-kill at MYLO- and a single vote would be enough to self-kill. Thus, DG is a preferable lynch to PW.

If you have any really good evidence for DG or PW, I'd love to hear it. Or, compelling evidence we aren't in MYLO. I don't think either is going to happen.

Also, I have now been scumread for sheeping Evenstar, and scumread for not sheeping Evenstar.
I think I was pretty clear in my reasoning for delegating my vote- I didn't expect to wake up in time to react to sudden shifts, and Evenstar was on a lynch I agreed with.
I think my reasoning for switching is equally clear- I woke up in time, primarily. I did not see a good reason to switch votes.
 
I mean, the biggest reason to not do what you're doing is so scum can't tie last second and I really don't want to stare at this thread for 20 more minutes
 
...do you? Aren't you already on the PW lynch, which is currently winning?
Like, if someone last minute switches to DG, what can you do?

I have to spend the next 20 minutes watching the thread, for sure.
 
That is, except for scum. I have no clue how ties work but all i know is they are bad for town
 
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