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Congregation of Despair (Mafia - Second Attempt)

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Oshha said:
What does 'LyLo' stand for? I assume it is when the balance of power for lynching is about to swing from town to a scum group, allowing scum to reliably lynch town or at least those that aren't part of their group.
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Lynch Or Lose. It's the point of the game where if you do not lynch scum each day, town loses.

The less extreme form is MyLo, which is Myslynch And Lose, and is the situation where you don't have to lynch scum but can't lynch town.

(eg if you had a standard maf of 3 goons and 5 vanilla townies, no powers to mess with things, you would lose if you lynched a townie, because then the scum would nightkill a townie dropping it to 3 and 3, but if you No Lynched that day, scum could only drop it to 4 townies, and would not yet have 50% or more of the vote)
 
So what happens if we do lynch 1K (or whoever else we lynch) and they do turn out to be scum? Or is that something that shouldn't be discussed?
 
Oshha said:
So what happens if we do lynch 1K (or whoever else we lynch) and they do turn out to be scum? Or is that something that shouldn't be discussed?
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Then we go over their posts with a fine tooth comb looking for anyone working with them. If we can't find that, well, I don't know. Hopefully the cult dies outright with 1KBestK. If not, hopefully they have no culting capability, giving us the ability to figure out who is what at our leisure for as long as we need.
 
Oshha said:
So what happens if we do lynch 1K (or whoever else we lynch) and they do turn out to be scum? Or is that something that shouldn't be discussed?
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Well, one of us three (Nictis, Dovah, Me) is likely the cult/vamp leader, which could mean town wins if you choose right. If you don't win immediately after, the next person is Nictis.
 
Can I say, btw, that I'm a little sad I never got invited to Cult? That would've been fun :V
 
Okay, so. Off work, gonna actually read the thread later.

@Terrabrand We agree that Oshha cannot be starter Cult, correct? If so, then there are only two possibilities that would make him cult. Either he was culted last night by @1KBestK, or he was culted Night Two by @Nanimani. I only really bring up this possibility because Nani hasn't actually revealed any info that wasn't already in the thread, but I do believe them to be a Watcher and I don't think they would have been culted N1 after publicly asking to not be culted. (They could have been, but there's enough targets to respect that wish)

Dimensional had to have been culted either Night One or Night Two and we know where Oshha has been during that and that they had no other visitors Night Two. If he is scum as of Day Two, he is Teal Scum and so not a priority. If he is currently Cult, then 1K is the Vampire.

So basically, Oshha is not a concern, even if he is 90% scum to you.

After I clean up and eat I plan on catching up and making a stronger case against both Dovah and 1K. Currently Dovah is in suspicion as a potential gambit and because they claimed to have self visited Night Two but were tracked as taking no action, which makes me think Vanilla turned Cult Counter-Claiming for victory, which if true means they were trying to protect someone. 1K has generally been pinging people's radar but I honestly feel like they are Town but just maybe not equipped to deal with the Cult. Doctor, not Psychiatrist. Need to check to make sure that my read on them is good.

Also, Nani: They haven't provided any new info but they also haven't been called out as wrong, which is why I believe it.
 
Nictis said:
Okay, so. Off work, gonna actually read the thread later.

@Terrabrand We agree that Oshha cannot be starter Cult, correct? If so, then there are only two possibilities that would make him cult. Either he was culted last night by @1KBestK, or he was culted Night Two by @Nanimani. I only really bring up this possibility because Nani hasn't actually revealed any info that wasn't already in the thread, but I do believe them to be a Watcher and I don't think they would have been culted N1 after publicly asking to not be culted. (They could have been, but there's enough targets to respect that wish)

Dimensional had to have been culted either Night One or Night Two and we know where Oshha has been during that and that they had no other visitors Night Two. If he is scum as of Day Two, he is Teal Scum and so not a priority. If he is currently Cult, then 1K is the Vampire.

So basically, Oshha is not a concern, even if he is 90% scum to you.

After I clean up and eat I plan on catching up and making a stronger case against both Dovah and 1K. Currently Dovah is in suspicion as a potential gambit and because they claimed to have self visited Night Two but were tracked as taking no action, which makes me think Vanilla turned Cult Counter-Claiming for victory, which if true means they were trying to protect someone. 1K has generally been pinging people's radar but I honestly feel like they are Town but just maybe not equipped to deal with the Cult. Doctor, not Psychiatrist. Need to check to make sure that my read on them is good.

Also, Nani: They haven't provided any new info but they also haven't been called out as wrong, which is why I believe it.
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Dovah self-healing makes exactly zero sense to me. I've been thinking about this and this is probably the biggest weakness in their cover. Firstly, the way they describe their power (and how they're flavored to be the spymaster) makes it just plain weird that they even could self-heal. On top of that, Night two was probably the worst possible night to try and self-heal. Ossha had just claimed, and hadn't yet revealed that they were straight immune, not just on the redirect. If you were actually a healer, your response would be to try and do what I did and heal Ossha! They have a powerful ability but seemed to be vulnerable to a direct attack, so any player worth their salt with a protective ability would totally try and protect Ossha over themselves.

Actually, thinking about this, i just realized that I completely missed that I can't be the cult leader, unless we want to say that the cult can for some reason cult every single night, which seems unlikely as that'd be extremely broken. We have proof from Terrabrand that I tried to use a power night 2, something that wouldn't be possible if I were to have used a power night one.
 
@Nictis QT seems to be backing up Dovah's claim of self-healing night 2 so you may want to look at QT as well.
 
Okay, so I might not be having the time that I'd like to have for this.

I'm fingering Dovah as the Cultist, and QTesseract as a potential new recruit. I'm not sure on QT, but if they were recruited last night then it adds up as a non-suspicious way to control the lynch because they have an actual reason to accuse someone of being the Cultist.

Really wish I did have the time to do this properly, but stuff came up and the Day is ending in about ten and a half hours, so I just have to place my vote and hope I'm right on it.

My thoughts: Dimensional was culted Night One as a safe person to take who has experience, Dovah was Culted Night Two while all the attention was on the Oshha/Nani/QT situation, and Swarmingu got Culted Night Three because they were unlikely to be protected, had no prior activity to gauge against, and was going to be replaced by a highly competent player. The other situation I can see is Dovah being Culted Night Three and Broken Base being the target Night Two but being immune to it because they are the Serial Killer, and Dovah counterclaiming in order to make sure that 1K is lynched instead of him because the suspects were narrowed down to him, me, and 1K.


The only issue is that he cannot have been the starting Cultist if he started alone, which is what I would expect from a Cult-Every-Night Cult group in a game with as few protections as this one has, and I can't figure out who the original Cultist would have been in this case.

[x] Lynch Dovah

At this point, it's either Dovah or it's 1K, and I actually believe 1K more than I do Dovah.

Blegh, this isn't nearly as concise as I would like...
 
Nictis said:
Okay, so I might not be having the time that I'd like to have for this.

I'm fingering Dovah as the Cultist, and QTesseract as a potential new recruit. I'm not sure on QT, but if they were recruited last night then it adds up as a non-suspicious way to control the lynch because they have an actual reason to accuse someone of being the Cultist.

Really wish I did have the time to do this properly, but stuff came up and the Day is ending in about ten and a half hours, so I just have to place my vote and hope I'm right on it.

My thoughts: Dimensional was culted Night One as a safe person to take who has experience, Dovah was Culted Night Two while all the attention was on the Oshha/Nani/QT situation, and Swarmingu got Culted Night Three because they were unlikely to be protected, had no prior activity to gauge against, and was going to be replaced by a highly competent player. The other situation I can see is Dovah being Culted Night Three and Broken Base being the target Night Two but being immune to it because they are the Serial Killer, and Dovah counterclaiming in order to make sure that 1K is lynched instead of him because the suspects were narrowed down to him, me, and 1K.


The only issue is that he cannot have been the starting Cultist if he started alone, which is what I would expect from a Cult-Every-Night Cult group in a game with as few protections as this one has, and I can't figure out who the original Cultist would have been in this case.

[x] Lynch Dovah

At this point, it's either Dovah or it's 1K, and I actually believe 1K more than I do Dovah.

Blegh, this isn't nearly as concise as I would like...
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[] Lynch Nictis



Yeah, no. If you are town, you're killing us all, and I don't buy Nictis doing that. Let's say you're right, and you lynch dovah: town still loses, because you think Terrabrand is scum. Roleblock oshha + cult brings cult back to three, and then we lose.

But. That's what you want, isn't it. It's a win win situation. Either we lynch town here, and you have a good chance to win outright, or we lynch you, and avoid taking out the cult you're actually afraid of us killing. Actually, dovah might also be cult in that case, just an expendable one. Not sure, same calculus.

Problem is? I don't know if you're covering for 1kbestk, and they're actual scum, of you're pocketing 1kbestk and just really want Terrabrand alive, because roleblocking the protective actually is your plan. And I'm not about to put down a lynch vote wildly and give you what you want.
 
QT, you have evidence that Dovah lied in your PMs.

I'm not sure on Terrabrand, it would match his incredible focus on the guy who actually protects people from being Culted, but that's probably him being overly focused on his read of Oshha. I cannot believe that Oshha is Cult and Terrabrand's insistence that the role doesn't work is a point against him considering what we've seen every other time we've had a Cult, but I'm not sure.

It's definitely going to be either Dovah or 1K. Me voting Dovah is to prevent us from losing.

If we tie, we No-Lynch. If Cult have three members, everybody who is not Cult needs to vote today.

If I don't have time to check the thread later, we No-Lynch and Lose or we Mislynch and Lose.
 
Town cannot afford me to not vote, so I'm voting the person I believe to be Cult.

If I don't vote, Town will lose.
 
Nictis said:
QT, you have evidence that Dovah lied in your PMs.

I'm not sure on Terrabrand, it would match his incredible focus on the guy who actually protects people from being Culted, but that's probably him being overly focused on his read of Oshha. I cannot believe that Oshha is Cult and Terrabrand's insistence that the role doesn't work is a point against him considering what we've seen every other time we've had a Cult, but I'm not sure.

It's definitely going to be either Dovah or 1K. Me voting Dovah is to prevent us from losing.

If we tie, we No-Lynch. If Cult have three members, everybody who is not Cult needs to vote today.

If I don't have time to check the thread later, we No-Lynch and Lose or we Mislynch and Lose.
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No, I believe you on them being cult. At first I reflexively didn't because it's you and I'm pretty sure you're scum, but then I realized it didn't matter; when I made the post I was just ambivalent, but then I realized yeah, dovah being an expendable cultist is even better for cult, since it doesn't matter and gets them cred. All you need is for it not to be your most important member who gets lynched.

I'm not sure if you're defending scum leader 1kbestk or if they're town and you want the cult roleblocked to stay alive, is the issue.
 
At this point, I'm burnt out from this LyLo. I can't of just want things to be over and I'm not sure on just who is cult right now.

But I still want town to win and I believe QT over Nictis so @QTesseract, I am willingly to back up what you decide.

I still think Terrabrand is town because we are kind of screwed if they aren't.
 
Oshha said:
So what happens if we do lynch 1K (or whoever else we lynch) and they do turn out to be scum? Or is that something that shouldn't be discussed?
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Hey, got an answer for you. We lynch Nictis.
Nictis said:
Okay, so I might not be having the time that I'd like to have for this.

I'm fingering Dovah as the Cultist, and QTesseract as a potential new recruit. I'm not sure on QT, but if they were recruited last night then it adds up as a non-suspicious way to control the lynch because they have an actual reason to accuse someone of being the Cultist.

Really wish I did have the time to do this properly, but stuff came up and the Day is ending in about ten and a half hours, so I just have to place my vote and hope I'm right on it.

My thoughts: Dimensional was culted Night One as a safe person to take who has experience, Dovah was Culted Night Two while all the attention was on the Oshha/Nani/QT situation, and Swarmingu got Culted Night Three because they were unlikely to be protected, had no prior activity to gauge against, and was going to be replaced by a highly competent player. The other situation I can see is Dovah being Culted Night Three and Broken Base being the target Night Two but being immune to it because they are the Serial Killer, and Dovah counterclaiming in order to make sure that 1K is lynched instead of him because the suspects were narrowed down to him, me, and 1K.


The only issue is that he cannot have been the starting Cultist if he started alone, which is what I would expect from a Cult-Every-Night Cult group in a game with as few protections as this one has, and I can't figure out who the original Cultist would have been in this case.

[x] Lynch Dovah

At this point, it's either Dovah or it's 1K, and I actually believe 1K more than I do Dovah.

Blegh, this isn't nearly as concise as I would like...
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You said it yourself. I'm not the cultmaster, and can't be the cultmaster. I don't believe you'd miss that as Town--lynching me leads to a Town loss, regardless of the veracity of my claim. I mean, I'm willing to belive 1KBestK is not the mastercultist, but I'm certain they're cult at this point. That makes you a cultist/mastercultist, or Nani, or QTess, or Swarmingu/Terra. Out of everyone alive right now, you're the sole vanilla claim in game where you have smoke to hide behind with the other dead, claimed vanillas. We know Nani, QTess, and Terra have powers, and a solid record of them using those powers. Same with Oshha, really.

That leaves 1KBestK as the mastercultist, with you as their cultist, because you're defending them way harder than you would a mere cultist.

Which means there's no question anymore on who to lynch.

[X] Lynch 1KBestK

I'm going to be on intermittently going forward. I'll be keeping an eye on the thread, but I definitely won't be around for EoD, and won't be terribly active for the rest of the Day. Tomorrow I should be at usual activity levels.
 
Oshha said:
At this point, I'm burnt out from this LyLo. I can't of just want things to be over and I'm not sure on just who is cult right now.

But I still want town to win and I believe QT over Nictis so @QTesseract, I am willingly to back up what you decide.

I still think Terrabrand is town because we are kind of screwed if they aren't.
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If terrabrand is scum, and we lynch them, it comes down to you predicting the cult target. I'm pretty sure nictis and dovah are both scum at this point, so you and 1kbestk would have to choose whether to protect me or 1kbestk or Nanimani. 55% odds, ish (2/3 chance they avoid your block, 2/3 chance they avoid 1kbestk) if 1kbestk is telling the truth about them being a doctor and is town, rather than a serial killer who is lying or something.
If 1kbestk is scum, and we lynch them, we might just win outright. Failing that, thy have a 1/2 chance to avoid the roleblock and a 2/3 chance to avoid your redirect. That's 67% even ignoring the chance of getting the cult leader winning us, so in reality it's probably significantly higher.
 
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