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Terminus Quest: A CKII Mass Effect Quest

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Simon_Jester said:
I think the best way to achieve that is to commit our reserves to where 2nd Battle Fleet is mopping up the broken force that made that unlucky transit from the Maroon Sea. That is the one place where we can reasonably hope to destroy a rachni battlegroup FAST, and we very much need to do that so that we can turn the 2nd Battle Fleet against the other attacking rachni fleets.
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Let me repeat this:
A Virmirean raiding fleet has half the combat power of a Virmirean battle fleet.
Our current reserves amount to roughly a quarter of a raiding fleet, which amounts to an eight of a battle fleet.

The 2nd Battle Fleet is still at 99%, and the fortifications are a little above half their original strength.
The Rachni are at 65% and falling fast.

Throwing 12% of a battle fleet in reserves there will not add decisive force to the 2nd Battle Fleet combat.
What it will do is burn their fuel and raise their heat. And leave us no fresh forces when the Rachni reserves trundle in.

Might even embolden the Rachni to commit their reserve early in the belief that they've seen all our forces.
And frankly, if they throw in an additional battle fleet now at any relay, with two of our raiding fleets still coming in, we're losing the relay. Possibly the cluster. It's the belief that we have unseen reserves that's staying their hand.

Angelform said:
[X] Plan Slowly at First, and Then All at Once
It isn't so much committing our reserves as consolidating both groups of them.
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You DO realize that you have no way of knowing if the Rachni reserve are at MO, right?

We have roughly two and a half raiding fleet's worth of combat power coming in from Virmire.
There are reserves. You just need to let them concentrate.
 
[X] Plan Slowly at First, and Then All at Once

Abyssien said:
If Rachi have reserve, is there a chance that they'll attack us again when we move the second fleet away?
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Yes, but if we leave the 2nd Battle Fleet parked on the relay for fear of a purely hypothetical rachni attack, then we've ordered 40% of our mobile battle forces out of combat, while the other 60% are embroiled in desperate fights against enemy battlegroups that outnumber them 2:1.

At which point the rachni have pretty firmly won the "divide and conquer" competition. Their battlegroups from the Nubian Expanse and Hades Gamma can Lanchester our relatively small blocking fleets to pieces and hope to stay reasonably intact, then come together to crush our 2nd Battle Fleet like a grape after their reserves arrive from the Maroon Sea to pin it in place.

Versharl said:
Committing the reserves at this point is a mistake. They're not concentrated enough to make a difference and we need to hold them back in case one of the fronts are at risk of completely falling.
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At their present size, and for the foreseeable future, they're too small to actually help if one of the fronts is falling. If the 3rd Raiding Fleet can't hold the rachni battlefleet coming at us from the Nubian Expanse, bailing them out is going to take a force at least comparable in size to a whole raiding fleet. Our reserves aren't that large and won't be for some time.

We do not, for practical purposes, have a reserve force right now, because if we actually tried to commit the reserve in a situation dire enough to require its attention, said reserve force would evaporate like a butterfly under a blowtorch.

We need to make a reserve force, which we must do by wresting the 2nd Battle Fleet out of combat (or rather, winning that combat as soon as possible), so that it can be used to shore up the other parts of our defensive front line which are going to start collapsing any time now.

Anime_Fan35 said:
Guys we're forgetting something. The Quarians fleet we rescued went home. The Rachni don't know they went home. They must still think that that fleet is currently gathering for a counterattack from the SO relay. Or acting as a reserve fleet in case the cluster falls with the objective of saving as many Virmire warships as possible during the retreat through the SO relay.
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Now that is a very good point.

Although the rachni may have no idea where the quarians are. In their pre-attack planning they may have thought "maybe the Virmireans are using the quarian fleet to suppress our holdouts on the other systems in Attican Beta," in which case those quarian ships would need considerable time to get back to the Hercules system to rejoin the battle.

On the other hand, if rachni queens have real-time communications with other rachni in the same star cluster, the first thing Admiral Queenie did, in all probability, was to send out messages to the surviving holdouts going "hey, did any of you get the license plate numbers of those ships bombing you from orbit," which may have given them some clues.

...

That said, you're right that they know we have more ships than they now see, and that they cannot predict where those ships are or what they are doing.

uju32 said:
Let me repeat this:
A Virmirean raiding fleet has half the combat power of a Virmirean battle fleet.
Our current reserves amount to roughly a quarter of a raiding fleet, which amounts to an eight of a battle fleet.

The 2nd Battle Fleet is still at 99%, and the fortifications are a little above half their original strength.
The Rachni are at 65% and falling fast.

Throwing 12% of a battle fleet in reserves there will not add decisive force to the 2nd Battle Fleet combat.
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No, it will not, but it will amplify the 2nd Battle Fleet's numerical advantage.

I'm pretty sure that the core assumptions of the Lanchester Law applies to our fleet combats: a force's ability to inflict damage on the enemy is roughly proportionate to its own strength. A reinforced fleet at 111% strength will do about 12% more damage than a fleet at 99% strength could deal. It will kill enemy ships faster, and consequently take fewer losses as that particular combat proceeds to completion.


( @PoptartProdigy , I know you normally don't like to talk about game mechanics, but if the above statement is false, we really need to know, because it affects how we model what's going on with our fleets and what the numbers you're giving us about their combat strength even mean)

Moreover, uniting Mira's command group and the scratch force of ships she's gathered from the incoming stragglers, and the 2nd Battle Fleet, will place Mira personally in the same location as the largest available reserve force- if she needs to assume personal command for some reason that's a good thing, and it makes her more secure from something like one of the rachni battlefleets deciding to get cute and peel off half their screening elements to kill the enemy commander, namely us.

What it will do is burn their fuel and raise their heat. And leave us no fresh forces when the Rachni reserves trundle in.
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Unless the rachni reserve itself is something like 25% of a battle fleet or less (unlikely), our existing reserves won't be effective when that happens anyway. I'd rather have them a bit tired out, but combined with another force large enough to accomplish something relevant on the scale of the engagement, rather than being fresh, but isolated and weak enough to be treated as a target of opportunity.

Might even embolden the Rachni to commit their reserve early in the belief that they've seen all our forces.
And frankly, if they throw in an additional battle fleet now at any relay, with two of our raiding fleets still coming in, we're losing the relay. Possibly the cluster. It's the belief that we have unseen reserves that's staying their hand.
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If they think the existing "12% of a battle fleet" force Mira's moving around here is the only reserve we have, then they'd already be committing their reserve because 12% of a battle fleet isn't a tactically meaningful force in isolation on this scale.

The reserve they "know" we have is the quarians (roughly 50% of a battle fleet) plus various raiding formations. That is a force significant enough that it's worth holding back a battle fleet worth of reserves to counter it when it arrives on the field. The force Mira has in hand... is not.

I expect that the rachni will look at the eighth-of-a-fleet we're sending to reinforce the 2nd Battle Fleet and go "aha, that is just a column of stragglers joining up, or a small formation doled out from their reserves for some reason, not the whole reserve force." For that matter they're basically right, just not for the reason they'd expect.

We have roughly two and a half raiding fleet's worth of combat power coming in from Virmire.
There are reserves. You just need to let them concentrate.
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OK, well about how long is that going to take? @PoptartProdigy may be able to provide us with an estimate. Roughly how many turns of combat will it take for us to accumulate roughly a raiding fleet's worth of reserves?

My gut feeling is that it will take several turns for this to happen, in which case the battle may already be lost before we have enough reserves to do anything ambitious like saving the 3rd Raiding Fleet... Unless we free up the 2nd Battle Fleet, in which case we might as well do everything in our power to enhance its striking power to preserve our own forces.


EDIT:

Oh hey, I was looking at the previous post:

Poptart said:
The 1st and 2nd Raiding Fleets and the Explorer Corps are trickling in piecemeal from their patrols, and won't be fully gathered for another six days. How do you want them to deploy?

-[ ] Immediately, to whatever relay most needs the reinforcements.
-[ ] To gather as a reserve force within the Hercules system.
-[ ] Write-in.
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Our reserve force consists of two raiding fleets and the Explorer Corps, with a combined strength of 1.25 battle fleets. However, it will take six days for those forces to fully assemble, and unless we pull off a miracle we're losing this cluster within one day, maybe within two.

Right now we have a reserve of 0.14* battle fleets.

And it's likely to increase by, oh, no more than 0.2 or 0.25 battle fleets per DAY that we wait, unless we have a very large slug of reinforcements inbound from, say, specifically the ships that were undergoing minor refits at the yards in Virmire.

This reserve force is simply not large enough to matter as an independent force, so it should not be held back the way a normal reserve force would be held back. The best use for it is to reinforce success to maximize the likelihood that we get a virtuous-cycle "snowball effect" of a large Virmirean force blowing away a small one with minimal casualties.

We're already outnumbered; we can't afford to hold back ships for a whole day.
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*(12% of the Explorer Corps is 3% of a battle fleet, while 14 and 8% of the First and Second raiding fleets constitute another 7% and 4% of a battle fleet, respectively.)
 
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Simon_Jester said:
No, it will not, but it will amplify the 2nd Battle Fleet's numerical advantage.

I'm pretty sure that the core assumptions of the Lanchester Law applies to our fleet combats: a force's ability to inflict damage on the enemy is roughly proportionate to its own strength. A reinforced fleet at 111% strength will do about 12% more damage than a fleet at 99% strength could deal. It will kill enemy ships faster, and consequently take fewer losses as that particular combat proceeds to completion.
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We KNOW Lanchester's Laws do not apply here.
We have known this ever since the 3rd RWF survived sustained combat with multiple Rachni war fleets, ending with the final one being better than twice it's size.

Lanchester's Laws presume the same level of technology and capabilities, both individually and collectively.
That's not true here. Different biology, different levels of armor and shielding, different heat dissipation curves....I mean, I'd never heard of it before this quest, but I honedtly can't see how you'd expect it to apply here.

I mean, it even explicitly states this in the Wiki artile:
More precisely, the law specifies the casualties a shooting force will inflict over a period of time, relative to those inflicted by the opposing force. In its basic form, the law is only useful to predict outcomes and casualties by attrition. It does not apply to whole armies, where tactical deployment means not all troops will be engaged all the time. It only works where each unit (soldier, ship, etc.) can kill only one equivalent unit at a time. For this reason, the law does not apply to machine guns, artillery, or nuclear weapons. The law requires an assumption that casualties accumulate over time: it does not work in situations in which opposing troops kill each other instantly, either by shooting simultaneously or by one side getting off the first shot and inflicting multiple casualties.
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uju32 said:
We KNOW Lanchester's Laws do not apply here.
We have known this ever since the 3rd RWF survived sustained combat with multiple Rachni war fleets, ending with the final one being better than twice it's size.
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Well, it "survived" but was reduced to 33% strength and getting caught by that last pursuit force would have polished it off in short order with minimal losses to the rachni.

Which is exactly what the Lanchester Square Law predicts happens when you fight a force over twice your size. Either you all go 'splat' while inflicting limited casualties on the enemy before the sheer volume of their fire destroys your ability to shoot back... or you run away screaming and avoid the combat.

Lanchester's Laws presume the same level of technology and capabilities, both individually and collectively.
That's not true here. Different biology, different levels of armor and shielding, different heat dissipation curves....I mean, I'd never heard of it before this quest, but I honedtly can't see how you'd expect it to apply here.
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None of those are actually a problem for the generalized Lanchester Law. Just because our ships are harder to kill than theirs, or their have more guns than ours, or whatever.

The basic conclusion, that the ability of a force to destroy the enemy scales with the square of its size, and that a force that is outnumbered (say) 2:1 cannot realistically hope to take more than about half its own strength with it in defeat, remains.

The underlying assumption of the Lanchester Square Law is that the number of enemies your unit can destroy per unit time is proportionate to the size of your unit, times some constant that we might crudely term the unit's "killiness." Increasing your side's "killiness" will of course increase its ability to destroy the enemy, and you might also have some concept of "survivability" that in turn lowers your ability to destroy the enemy when firing at them.

The Lanchester laws work just fine as long as both sides are free to see each other and shoot at each other. They are simplest in the case where both sides field homogeneous armies of identical mooks, but as long as each side is fundamentally self-similar and each side has the ability to inflict meaningful losses on the other, it still holds.

I mean, it even explicitly states this in the Wiki artile:
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Yes, because they're giving you the simplified version of the Lanchester Law. that makes specific assumptions (uniform armament, identical mooks) because it reduces the complexity of the derivation. The system of differential equations can still be solved in any case where you can model each side's fire as a continuous barrage of shots, each of which individually does "chip" damage to the opposing force, but which collectively erode the enemy force like a stream of sandblasting particles eroding a cliff face over time. And while that's not a perfect model for our war effort (since individual shots that take out a dreadnought are pretty important), it's at least a broadly valid model.
 
agumentic said:
Actually, we'll start losing relays in one to two days. The whole battle in the cluster will last for two-three days at least.
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OK, sure. And that still means that our forces will be worn down to a nubbin and probably frantically holding the relay to Sentry Omega to avoid being cut off from their line of retreat, by the time we have enough reserves to intervene meaningfully in a conflict between, say, one of our raiding fleets and a rachni battle fleet.

My core argument here is that (for instance) 3rd Raiding Fleet cannot hold out long enough for our reinforcement trickle to save it. We need to free up some of the forces already present here in the Hercules System, or we cannot save them.

The same is quite possibly true of the 1st Battle Fleet, which is also up against heavy numerical odds, if not quite as comprehensively screwed as the 3rd Raiding Fleet.
 
Simon_Jester said:
Moreover, uniting Mira's command group and the scratch force of ships she's gathered from the incoming stragglers, and the 2nd Battle Fleet, will place Mira personally in the same location as the largest available reserve force- if she needs to assume personal command for some reason that's a good thing, and it makes her more secure from something like one of the rachni battlefleets deciding to get cute and peel off half their screening elements to kill the enemy commander, namely us.
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This is a fortified star system.
They aren't sneaking up on us, and stripping the screen from a battle fleet mid combat is asking for it to get buttfuvked by enemy corvettes. Martial 20 queen isn't falling for that.

Furthermore, the Rachni do not even know where the overall commander is anyway.
How would they? They're telepaths, not seers.
Simon_Jester said:
Unless the rachni reserve itself is something like 25% of a battle fleet or less (unlikely), our existing reserves won't be effective when that happens anyway. I'd rather have them a bit tired out, but combined with another force large enough to accomplish something relevant on the scale of the engagement, rather than being fresh, but isolated and weak enough to be treated as a target of opportunity.
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I don't agree.

Our fleet enjoys a qualitative edge over the Rachni, and always has. They're not equivalent forces, especially in prolonged engagements where your edge in things like targeting, shirlds and damage vontrol come into play.
Plus, we're sitting on a fleet base.

We have roughly 1.25 battle fleet worth of combat power coming in.
Simon_Jester said:
If they think the existing "12% of a battle fleet" force Mira's moving around here is the only reserve we have, then they'd already be committing their reserve because 12% of a battle fleet isn't a tactically meaningful force in isolation on this scale.
The reserve they "know" we have is the quarians (roughly 50% of a battle fleet) plus various raiding formations. That is a force significant enough that it's worth holding back a battle fleet worth of reserves to counter it when it arrives on the field. The force Mira has in hand... is not.
I expect that the rachni will look at the eighth-of-a-fleet we're sending to reinforce the 2nd Battle Fleet and go "aha, that is just a column of stragglers joining up, or a small formation doled out from their reserves for some reason, not the whole reserve force." For that matter they're basically right, just not for the reason they'd expect.
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If we behave like it's the only reserve available, instead of just the early birds being concentrated for a counter attack, so will they.
They currently think that 12% is just the vanguard.
Let's keep it that way.

The longer this thing lasts, the better our chances.
Simon_Jester said:
OK, well about how long is that going to take? @PoptartProdigy may be able to provide us with an estimate. Roughly how many turns of combat will it take for us to accumulate roughly a raiding fleet's worth of reserves? My gut feeling is that it will take several turns for this to happen, in which case the battle may already be lost before we have enough reserves to do anything ambitious like saving the 3rd Raiding Fleet... Unless we free up the 2nd Battle Fleet, in which case we might as well do everything in our power to enhance its striking power to preserve our own forces.
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We know this:
1st Raiding Fleet (Commanding Officer Admiral Beshkar; flagship VWS Durrahe Korun [Durrahe Korun Class Battlecruiser]). Based out of Hercules, Attican Beta; returning to Hercules, estimated full muster in six days. At 100% strength.

2nd Raiding Fleet (Commanding Officer Admiral Ulannavael Semateth; flagship VWS Sheerak II [Durrahe Korun Class Battlecruiser]). Based out of Newton, Kepler Verge; deploying to Hercules, Attican Beta, estimated full muster in six days. At 100% strength.

3rd Raiding Fleet (Commanding Officer Admiral Mordin Sentra; flagship VWS Shiera Namal [Durrahe Korun Class Battlecruiser]). Based out of Hercules, Attican Beta; holding Attican Beta-Nubian Expanse Relay, Hercules, Attican Beta. At 92% strength.

Explorer Corps (Commanding Officer Rear Admiral Yelena S'Rinna; flagship Survey Cruiser VWS Emancipator). Based out of Hoc, Sentry Omega; deploying to Hercules, Attican Beta, estimated full muster in six days. At 100% strength.
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My suspicion is that we'll have at least 70% of the available forces by next turn, after which it's stragglers.
Roughly 68%, if you're doing the whole statistics thing with your bellshaped curve.
We specifically spent time building out the logistics network to allow for such rapid redeployments.

What we currently have are the early birds, those close enough . The main body should be en route.
 
Simon_Jester said:
OK, sure. And that still means that our forces will be worn down to a nubbin and probably frantically holding the relay to Sentry Omega to avoid being cut off from their line of retreat, by the time we have enough reserves to intervene meaningfully in a conflict between, say, one of our raiding fleets and a rachni battle fleet.

My core argument here is that (for instance) 3rd Raiding Fleet cannot hold out long enough for our reinforcement trickle to save it. We need to free up some of the forces already present here in the Hercules System, or we cannot save them.

The same is quite possibly true of the 1st Battle Fleet, which is also up against heavy numerical odds, if not quite as comprehensively screwed as the 3rd Raiding Fleet.
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Honestly, I don't disagree. If we want good reserves, we need to free up 2nd Battle. However, if it's the speed you seek, diving and shattering AB-MS fleet would be much faster than trying to encircle it, even with our current meager reserves committed to encirclement.
 
The problem with committing the estimated "12% of a battlefleet" right now is our doctrine.
Remember it? The Raiding Doctrine, Many Fleets?

These 12% of a battlefleet would actually be worth like 5%, if we're generous, because that's not a single raiding or even battle fleet. It's fucking squadrons and individual ships of three different formations, one of which is not even strictly Navy and thus has different SOPs.
It would be a non-trivial task to just move these warships somewhere orderly with command chain shot to hell, and you want to throw them into combat?

[X] Plan Parthian Shot

Somewhat similar is the reason for keeping 2nd Battle Fleet at long range plinking at that screwed Rachni formation.
It would be prolonged engagement, and Rachni probably wouldn't be fully defeated by the time of next update...

But 2nd Battle Fleet would remain at basically full combat readiness, and with losses taken and cohesion lost by Rachni, we could just send (bolstered by new arrivals) reserves to contain them and move the 2nd to another Relay.
Without risking significant losses and loss of time on reconsolidating the battle fleet that melee would entail.
 
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uju32 said:
Our fleet enjoys a qualitative edge over the Rachni, and always has. They're not equivalent forces, especially in prolonged engagements where your edge in things like targeting, shirlds and damage vontrol come into play.
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All of this can be modeled by the Lanchester laws, because averaged out over a long period of time, all it does is affect the rate at which your side's fire erodes the enemy side, and vice versa.

Plus, we're sitting on a fleet base.
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Well... as long as no rachni have time to fire mass driver rounds at long range into the base facilities.

We have roughly 1.25 battle fleet worth of combat power coming in.

If we behave like it's the only reserve available, instead of just the early birds being concentrated for a counter attack, so will they.
They currently think that 12% is just the vanguard.
Let's keep it that way.

The longer this thing lasts, the better our chances.
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The best argument for doing so is not, in my opinion, that the rachni will react like this is all the reinforcements we're going to have (they'll never be sure of that until they see quarian ships, which they won't). It's:

Dwergar said:
The problem with committing the estimated "12% of a battlefleet" right now is our doctrine.
Remember it? The Raiding Doctrine, Many Fleets?

These 12% of a battlefleet would actually be worth like 5%, if we're generous, because that's not a single raiding or even battle fleet. It's fucking squadrons and individual ships of three different formations, one of which is not even strictly Navy and thus has different SOPs.
It would be a non-trivial task to just move these warships somewhere orderly with command chain shot to hell, an you want to throw them into combat?
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I feel like Dwergar is insulting me, but he does have a point in that the forces we now have aren't a cohesive formed unit at all. That's a good argument against committing them. If we had, say, 70% of the Explorer Corps including most of its command chain, that would be different in my opinion.

uju32 said:
We know this:

My suspicion is that we'll have at least 70% of the available forces by next turn, after which it's stragglers.
Roughly 68%, if you're doing the whole statistics thing with your bellshaped curve.
We specifically spent time building out the logistics network to allow for such rapid redeployments.

What we currently have are the early birds, those close enough . The main body should be en route.
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Uh... I don't think your assessment is accurate or a good application of Gaussian distribution statistics.

Basically, your argument seems to be that because we got the first 12% of our reinforcements, when you would normally expect about 16% of random arrival times to be more than one standard deviation "early," we can probably expect the next 34% of arrivals "soon" (in the next coming turn, the ships that are early but less than one standard deviation from the mean), and another 34% not long after that (the ones that are only one standard deviation late, or less).

The problem is, the battle's only been going for a few hours. We're not already most of the way towards the peak of a Gaussian curve, because for that to be the case we'd need the first of the reinforcements to arrive days before the recall messages were sent to summon them!

If the full muster time is six days, it's reasonably to interpret that as "this is how long it'll take all but a handful of the latest stragglers to arrive." That's probably more like +2 or +3 standard deviations above the mean... Which in turn means we can expect the median arrival time for ships of those fleets to be more like 2-3 days from now, and less like 2-3 hours.

And I'm not sure a Gaussian is even a good model here. The ships that have already arrived are those that just happen to have been directly inbound to the relay systems in Attican Beta, and the Kepler Verge already. We're not going to see the bulk of those formations coming in hard on their heels within the next few hours, and it looks like a combat turn is at most a few hours long here.

...

I can get behind the idea of a plan that doesn't commit the scattered "reserve" force on the grounds that it isn't a formed unit and won't be able to coordinate effectively, I guess?
 
[X] Plan Parthian Shot
Adhoc vote count started by UlseDovThur on May 31, 2019 at 1:54 PM, finished with 48 posts and 24 votes.
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Adhoc vote count started by UlseDovThur on May 31, 2019 at 1:54 PM, finished with 48 posts and 24 votes.
  • [X] Plan Slowly at First, and Then All at Once
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Commit them. You need them, meager as they are.
    --[X] They will help the 2nd Battle Fleet clean up.
    [X] Plan Parthian Shot
    -[X][1st Battle Fleet/AB-HG Relay]Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X][2nd Battle Fleet/AB-MO Relay] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X][3rd Raiding Fleet/AB-NE Relay] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X][Reserve] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
    [X] Plan Charge
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Dive in and shatter them. They have failed to form a formation; now make it impossible. Put an end to this assault with crushing speed so that you can reinforce one of the other fleets. Of course, rachni carry a lot of torpedoes, so if you don't shatter them, this could hurt.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
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uju32 said:
It takes longer, yes.
But we have been told that the rachni fleet there is about to break and scatter. They already have battle damage; if they break and fall out of mutually supporting range, they die or are crippled just breaking out of the encirclement by the fortifications.

I am not confident the risk of 2nd Battle losing a dread is worth attempting to accelerate that process.
I could be wrong, but that's my inclination.

The enemy is a Martial 20 admiral; barring some sort of massive brain fart, they are good.
And with rachni FTL telepathy, I fully expect the enemy Queen to order them to attempt to inflict attritional losses on 2nd Battle if they can.

2nd Battle and fortifications are at 152% vs a Rachni fleet's 65%.
Are you confident that we can kill them fast enough at 2.5 to 1 odds to minimize Battle Fleet losses? Could be. I'm just wary.


3rd Raiding is just that, a raiding fleet; we can build a new one in two years. One year if we expedite.
It's heaviest ship is a BC. It can comfortably stay ahead of any pursuit by the dreadnought-led battle fleet it is facing, and even without counting the presumed technological edge in play.

The Eletania fleet base is behind it.

We have the combat power of two and a half raiding fleets trickling into the reserve.
Besides, this is basically the sort of fight you expect a raiding fleet with a tech edge to pull against a superior foe.

I will reiterate this: Do not commit your reserve.
It's an aphorism that she who commits her reserve first loses, and at the moment we don't have a big enough reserve to make a decisive edge if/when we throw it into combat.

Do recall that the Rachni almost certainly have at least one reserve battle fleet entirely untouched.
All plans need to keep this in mind. Even with the Terminus Alliance and Citadel doing their thing behind the scenes.
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I'm concerned that if the 3rd Raiding Fleet buckles completely before reinforcements arrive the evacuation transports will get caught out and millions of people onboard slaughtered. We have to be very careful relying on the 3rd to hold for any period of time. It doesn't really have the forces necessary to do so indefinitely.


[X] Plan Charge
-[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
-[X] Dive in and shatter them. They have failed to form a formation; now make it impossible. Put an end to this assault with crushing speed so that you can reinforce one of the other fleets. Of course, rachni carry a lot of torpedoes, so if you don't shatter them, this could hurt.
-[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
-[X] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
Adhoc vote count started by TaliesinSkye on May 31, 2019 at 12:10 PM, finished with 40 posts and 20 votes.
  • [X] Plan Slowly at First, and Then All at Once
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Commit them. You need them, meager as they are.
    --[X] They will help the 2nd Battle Fleet clean up.
    [X] Plan Parthian Shot
    -[X][1st Battle Fleet/AB-HG Relay]Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X][2nd Battle Fleet/AB-MO Relay] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X][3rd Raiding Fleet/AB-NE Relay] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X][Reserve] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
    [X] Plan Charge
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Dive in and shatter them. They have failed to form a formation; now make it impossible. Put an end to this assault with crushing speed so that you can reinforce one of the other fleets. Of course, rachni carry a lot of torpedoes, so if you don't shatter them, this could hurt.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
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Adhoc vote count started by TaliesinSkye on May 31, 2019 at 12:11 PM, finished with 40 posts and 21 votes.
  • [X] Plan Slowly at First, and Then All at Once
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Commit them. You need them, meager as they are.
    --[X] They will help the 2nd Battle Fleet clean up.
    [X] Plan Parthian Shot
    -[X][1st Battle Fleet/AB-HG Relay]Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X][2nd Battle Fleet/AB-MO Relay] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X][3rd Raiding Fleet/AB-NE Relay] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X][Reserve] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
    [X] Plan Charge
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Dive in and shatter them. They have failed to form a formation; now make it impossible. Put an end to this assault with crushing speed so that you can reinforce one of the other fleets. Of course, rachni carry a lot of torpedoes, so if you don't shatter them, this could hurt.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
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It's a shame there isn't an option to move the reserves up to screen the evacuation transports while they gather and wait to engage.
 
Simon_Jester said:
Does Mira know roughly how strong she can expect her reserve force to become as more ships straggle in, over the course of the next turn or two of action? Is she expecting big waves of ships comparable to or greater than the number she has now, or a slower trikcle of reinforcement?

I ask because it makes a difference. If our "reserve" will have to sit around for several turns just to reach the size of a raiding fleet, it's not worth it to keep that force out of the battle because it will take too long to grow large enough to be decisive as an independent fighting force. If we can expect a whole lot more ships to arrive Real Soon, matters are different.
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Your forces are fairly evenly dispersed. Last couple of days will be stragglers, but until then, it'll be steady.
Simon_Jester said:
( @PoptartProdigy , I know you normally don't like to talk about game mechanics, but if the above statement is false, we really need to know, because it affects how we model what's going on with our fleets and what the numbers you're giving us about their combat strength even mean)
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Even in AtE, that no longer holds since the mechanics went transparent, let alone here, where they have always been.

Lanchestrian Laws apply in abstract, although there are of course always confounding factors. Thus, why your outnumbered forces both have tactics available to reduce the effective amount of opposition facing them, or boost their own effective strength. Tech also helps by letting your forces kill harder, dodge better, and survive more damage unaffected.

That said, being outnumbered is bad. Your tech edge — barriers in particular — makes it less bad. But it's still unfavorable. The simple reality of it being bad to be one thing shooting at two things shooting at you still applies, even if you have the ability to ignore the first few shots of received fire.
 
Simon_Jester said:
All of this can be modeled by the Lanchester laws, because averaged out over a long period of time, all it does is affect the rate at which your side's fire erodes the enemy side, and vice versa.

Well... as long as no rachni have time to fire mass driver rounds at long range into the base facilities.

The best argument for doing so is not, in my opinion, that the rachni will react like this is all the reinforcements we're going to have (they'll never be sure of that until they see quarian ships, which they won't). It's:

I feel like Dwergar is insulting me, but he does have a point in that the forces we now have aren't a cohesive formed unit at all. That's a good argument against committing them. If we had, say, 70% of the Explorer Corps including most of its command chain, that would be different in my opinion.

Uh... I don't think your assessment is accurate or a good application of Gaussian distribution statistics.

Basically, your argument seems to be that because we got the first 12% of our reinforcements, when you would normally expect about 16% of random arrival times to be more than one standard deviation "early," we can probably expect the next 34% of arrivals "soon" (in the next coming turn, the ships that are early but less than one standard deviation from the mean), and another 34% not long after that (the ones that are only one standard deviation late, or less).

The problem is, the battle's only been going for a few hours. We're not already most of the way towards the peak of a Gaussian curve, because for that to be the case we'd need the first of the reinforcements to arrive days before the recall messages were sent to summon them!

If the full muster time is six days, it's reasonably to interpret that as "this is how long it'll take all but a handful of the latest stragglers to arrive." That's probably more like +2 or +3 standard deviations above the mean... Which in turn means we can expect the median arrival time for ships of those fleets to be more like 2-3 days from now, and less like 2-3 hours.

And I'm not sure a Gaussian is even a good model here. The ships that have already arrived are those that just happen to have been directly inbound to the relay systems in Attican Beta, and the Kepler Verge already. We're not going to see the bulk of those formations coming in hard on their heels within the next few hours, and it looks like a combat turn is at most a few hours long here.

...

I can get behind the idea of a plan that doesn't commit the scattered "reserve" force on the grounds that it isn't a formed unit and won't be able to coordinate effectively, I guess?
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-I am not a military theoretician.
That said, Lanchester equations explicitly model land combat, not naval or space. The underlying assumptions are different.
Note that Lanchester's square law does not apply to technological force, only numerical force; so it requires an N-squared-fold increase in quality to compensate for an N-fold decrease in quantity.
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And in a situation where the belligerents are not technologically equivalent, it matters.

You might have had a better argument with the salvo combat model, which at least attempts to model offensive and defensive firepower. Salvo combat model - Wikipedia

-Long distance bombardment won't work here.
Eletania fleet facilities are explicitly mobile; whether integrated, or by use of tugs, we don't know. Mira makes note of it
As you coordinate this three-pronged furball, your comm goes off. You check. Marae, high priority. You ignore it and go back to directing ships. The comm goes off again; Marae, high priority. This time you reject the call with a message: Busy. You turn to the naval docks around Eletania, supervising their relocation to the side of the planet in the lee of all of the gunfire.
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Not combat maneuverability, but enough mobility to avoid long range cee-fractional bombardment.
We learned from what we did to the Rachni. They're going to have to come up close.

-The command chain argument is something I didn't even consider.:oops:
But we do have Mira's opinion on the utility of the current reserve.
PoptartProdigy said:
As for your reserves, they're still trickling in. You have maybe a third of a single raiding fleet's worth gathered in Hercules right now, nowhere near enough to prove decisive. You grit your teeth. This is not the battle you wanted to wage.
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We need to grow it.
If you choose to commit them now, you do so in direct disagreement with the opinion of our Martial 26 PC.

-Hours yeah.
Dunno how long that has been IC; the GM is being deliberately vague about the exact passage of time. Fully admit that we don't have the right figures to plot a proper distribution curve, but I'd normally expect such a curve to skew hard left anyway, given as they're within charted clusters.

I mean, we just invested two years worth of improving our naval basing and logistics in AB and KV.
Martial: Expanded Naval Basing

Rolled: 92+11(Minister)=103. Needed: 21. Greater Critical Success.

When it comes to the art of constructing naval basing, on the other hand, your people have both expertise and practice.

Fueling stations spring up across your controlled space, and patrols become easier. You no longer have captains counting every gram of fusion material for their drives. Resupply stations spread like wildfire, and you no longer have to set such harsh budgets for bombardment of rachni worlds. Repair docks emerge out of the void, and the fear of a newly-built rachni ship suiciding into a frigate with one mechanical fault too many to defend itself goes away.

But you do more than just that. Toral works wonders with his budget, and finds the time to kick the Naval Security Board extra funding. Defense platforms spread out along with your naval basing at an incredible pace, easily outpacing the years it would normally take them to cover so much space. For the first time since you took Hercules, you can truly say that your space is secure and connected. And you're only just getting started.

Options off to a ludicrously successful start. Will conclude next year. -50,000 credits.
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Martial: Expanded Naval Basing

The war has not ended; it has simply gone colder than usual. You bear that in mind as you continue your work.

Your military infrastructure reaches out across your territory. What you established last year, you armor this year. What locations you secured last year, you reinforce this year. K'Sharr pours himself into this project, the logistician in him demanding nothing less than his best. He already outdid himself last year; this year he makes what he built durable and redundant. Logistics are always the soft underbelly of a military; K'Sharr does his best to ensure that Virmire's are at least a little tough.

It is a welcome development. For the first time in a long time, the resources of Virmire flow easily out across its space to your military, the choke points easing at last.

Extensive, redundant, and hardened logistics stations set up across your space, along with a major boost to the defense platforms operated by the Naval Security Board. +32,000 yearly income thanks to reduced strain on your logistics chain.
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Even with hard limits to travel speeds?
The absent raiding fleets are travelling across a region carpeted with comm buoys and logistics stations.
TaliesinSkye said:
I'm concerned that if the 3rd Raiding Fleet buckles completely before reinforcements arrive the evacuation transports will get caught out and millions of people onboard slaughtered. We have to be very careful relying on the 3rd to hold for any period of time. It doesn't really have the forces necessary to do so indefinitely
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Tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands.
And that doesn't count the tens of thousands of people we have exploiting the resources of Attican Beta and Kepler Verge, or manning military installations within the cluster.

We lost five million cleansing Eletania. We'll live.
On the bright side, I don't think there will be any arguments about building a third battle fleet if we live.
Adhoc vote count started by uju32 on May 31, 2019 at 1:09 PM, finished with 46 posts and 24 votes.
  • [X] Plan Slowly at First, and Then All at Once
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Commit them. You need them, meager as they are.
    --[X] They will help the 2nd Battle Fleet clean up.
    [X] Plan Parthian Shot
    -[X][1st Battle Fleet/AB-HG Relay]Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X][2nd Battle Fleet/AB-MO Relay] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X][3rd Raiding Fleet/AB-NE Relay] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X][Reserve] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
    [X] Plan Charge
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Dive in and shatter them. They have failed to form a formation; now make it impossible. Put an end to this assault with crushing speed so that you can reinforce one of the other fleets. Of course, rachni carry a lot of torpedoes, so if you don't shatter them, this could hurt.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
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Adhoc vote count started by uju32 on Jun 1, 2019 at 7:48 AM, finished with 93 posts and 43 votes.
  • 44
    [X] Plan Parthian Shot
    -[X][1st Battle Fleet/AB-HG Relay]Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X][2nd Battle Fleet/AB-MO Relay] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X][3rd Raiding Fleet/AB-NE Relay] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X][Reserve] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
    [X] Plan Slowly at First, and Then All at Once
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Reinforce the encirclement. The platforms have done their job par excellence, but the rachni will escape if this exchange rate continues. Surround and obliterate them. Of course, if you don't kill ships quickly enough, the rachni will charge you in a glory-or-death assault.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Commit them. You need them, meager as they are.
    --[X] They will help the 2nd Battle Fleet clean up.
    [X] Plan Charge
    -[X] Withdraw away from the relay and try to make it to extreme range. The rachni have a massive cruiser advantage, and long range is where cruiser guns start coming into play. Try and get to extreme range, dragging them past the defense platforms on the way, and try to buy time with the slower pace of a capital ship duel.
    -[X] Dive in and shatter them. They have failed to form a formation; now make it impossible. Put an end to this assault with crushing speed so that you can reinforce one of the other fleets. Of course, rachni carry a lot of torpedoes, so if you don't shatter them, this could hurt.
    -[X] Remain at extreme range at all costs. Through good gunnery, you've taken out most of the rachni dreadnoughts, leaving you facing just one dreadnought and a bevy of battlecruisers. If you remain at extreme range, you are facing what is effectively an only slightly-larger hostile force, and you can draw this out for much longer.
    -[X] Do not commit them. You do not need them badly enough to accept the casualties of doing so just yet.
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