So you're tilting things towards the second interpretation of the 1e Seer book?
One of the things the Seers of the Throne Order Book basically said was that in some ways it was splitting the difference/equivocating on how powerful the Seers were. Not that any interpretation of them was weak, and I'd have to search the book for the exact line, but that they were being intentionally made so that you could either interpret them in the Matrix/Illumanti "Runs everything" sense, or in the, "Reach bigger than their grasp, taking credit for trends they don't actually control in any way, when they're not busy stabbing themselves in the back, yet still dangerous and powerful, just not as much as in example one."
Rules like that seem like the 2e interpretation is aiming towards the former, at least in how you're describing them?
I prefer "the Seers don't rule the world; they don't have to." It's not some cWoD-style Technocracy where they have the President on speed dial; the Exarchs give Seers missions that gradually increase the amount of fuckery in the world and ensure no one effective ever becomes President. What the Exarchs demand Seers do is often nonsensical to the point of view of the Seer - why kill this one specific baby? Because the General goddamn told you to, and you will probably never find out why.
And their comparatively large arsenal is the in-setting reason why the Seers survive against the Diamond, Free Council, and Tremere's hostility, despite all their infighting (which is, let's not forget, often directly caused by the Exarchs giving them mutually-exclusive orders, even before the natural tendency of Seers to be backstabbing shitbirds)
They punch above their weight, but they hit themselves a lot.
My understanding of the Exarchs is that in-universe, nobody's sure what's going on with them. Everyone has theories, but none of them can be proven with any effectiveness.
Maybe the Exarchs paid for stealing the gods' thrones, and became inhuman creatures that exist as living embodiments of their own sins and failings[1].
Maybe the Exarchs' war for the heavens is still ongoing, and they're too busy holding off the old gods to properly solidify their control over the Fallen World.
Maybe the Abyss has sealed them away from the ruins of their birthplace, and they've largely ceased caring about it save for ensuring its inhabitants don't rise against them.
Maybe they're all dead.
The only thing that seems probable is that they aren't actively and regularly interfering with the Fallen World in the way you might expect unstoppable god-wizards to do.
[1] Or, to translate into Ascension terms, they suffered something equivalent to prolonged Umbra exposure, and degenerated from Mages into blind idiot gods that no longer have the puissance and brilliance that let them seize their celestial thrones, existing as spirit reflections of their original selves.
Nah. The Exarchs definitely exist, and are actively involved in the Fallen World. Ask any Supernal Entity if the Thrones exist. Deny an Ochema to its face. They're in the unseen Supernal Realm beyond the Supernal World mages can see in their Sight, and they shout their Commands into the brains of Seers.
What's completely NOT set in stone is the notion that they are Ascended mages from the Time Before. The Seers believe so, because that's their basis for believing the best of them (or most successful, anyway) will be allowed to Ascend and join them. The Diamond *mostly* think so because, hey, if the Exarchs could take over the universe then so could they.
The early books in first edition Awakening played a weird dance of introducing setting elements then mumbling "unless, you know, you don't like that," like they were nervous readers were still hung up on cMage. Awakening improved when it grew the confidence to stop that.