Failing to arrange a decent deal and walking away still wastes the action. More than that, though, I just think it's fundamentally not a good idea to go into debt with dwarves if it can be avoided. They're too inflexible.
Yeah but that's just what happens when the rolls are low. If taking the action on its own doesn't carry any inherent negatives, then a failure would simply be "you don't do the thing". It's not something that only happens with the Dwarfs. If you don't like their rigidity then that's understandable, shit can happen in 5 years that fucks up your plans for the next 20. I just wanted to make it clear that we're not condemned to a short term, costly repayment or anything if we don't roll well there.
Sure, there are political downsides. I admit it and it says so right in the option. My argument is that the political downsides have their upsides. Because more people are worried about looking bad for going to Marienburg banks, fewer people are willing to do it, which means a chance for better terms. It's paying political capital for better loan terms. You always want to go into a negotiation knowing that the other party needs your business.
In the Empire sure, but one of the perks of Marienburg independence is that they are not tied to the Empire. Bretonnian knights, Border Princes, Tilean merchant lords, and more all regularly make such deals with Marienburg. Not to mention that Marienburg still can claim some recognition even from a failed loan negotiation, as the attempt would still have been made. Also remember that we are not the Chancellor of Ostermark, we're just one of his advisors, so we also have to take into account what sort of political blows Ludwig would be willing to take. He already has a bit of domestic trouble from the land seizures after all.
On another note I realize I did not vote for my own plan yet, so I'm going to do that now.
[X] Plan I Love Goooooooold! ...And Knooooooooooowledge!
-[X] - Try to find sources for debt borrowing in order to expand economic activity in the province.
--[X] Write-in: You could approach the Colleges of Magic. While the Gold Order is the wealthiest of them all, the other seven are also in possession of a great deal of funding, and many of your colleagues are the children of nobility.
--[X] - Dwarves? This is… a rather unorthodox option, but you could try. After all, Karak Kadrin depends on your food supplies, and you have recently killed orcs.
---[X] You also have a Dwarf medical patient in your home you could consult on this matter.
-[X] - Work with Colleagues. As your boss said, interaction with colleagues is encouraged, so there's no reason why you couldn't offer your services to help. It will take your time, but you will learn more about other people. Choose one at cost of one action:
--[X] - Lady Isolde. Somehow she holds the provincial aristocracy under an iron grip. You could help her and learn about her methods.
---[X] Perhaps you and Isolde could also work together when you tackle the most complicated of surgical cases in Bechafen, as you may try to incorporate your alchemical studies into your medical practice, and the grace of Shallya would be most appreciated. This would also be a good opportunity to demonstrate your new sanitation device.
-[X] - Research skill. At the moment, there are several professionals like you, and you could ask them to teach you new things. (Write-in one skill and who will teach you)
--[X] - Helena is a priestess of Verena. Who else besides her can give you more knowledge regarding the theology of her goddess?
---[X] Verenan Theology
---[X] An owl landed on the roof of your home and hooted as you completed your altar to Lady Verena prior to your leaving on the expedition to clear out the Veldt. While you are with her, ask what that could portend.
-[X] - You could begin your study of alchemy by preparing several healing potions from Maria's book. These will not be powerful magical artifacts, of course, but they will be saturated with the necessary wind of magic to maximize their effect.
-[X] - As a practicing surgeon, you could turn to the city residents in search of difficult cases where surgery is required, but even the priests refuse to guarantee the success of such operations. Each such case will be a mystery for you, requiring a creative approach to try to save a person's life or limb.
-[X] Donate 5 crowns each to the Cults of Shallya, Verena, Ulric, and Morr (Cost: 20 Crowns)
-[X] Shop around for rare alchemical ingredients (Cost: ???)