The World Turned Upside Down: A U.S. 2016-2020 politics timeline

Finally, the death toll wasn't at all what we expected: 26 dead from gunfire, which (sadly) isn't too extraordinary for the United States, and 106 killed by crushing, which isn't too extraordinary for the rest of the world. And...honestly, that's not unprecedented for the United States, either. Crushes and stampedes are rarer here, perhaps because of our lower population density, but the 2003 Station Nightclub fire in Rhode Island had a similar death toll due to crushing.

Artificially generated stampedes could be used as weapons in and of themselves.
 
Interesting. So if we take what Kaine said as mostly accurate, the Phoenix Delegate War was the death throes (to use an unfortunate metaphor) of a party already on its way out--remembered as something a lot bigger than it was, politically. It sounds a lot like Howard Dean's scream or Rick Perry's "oops" moment were on a much smaller scale.

It definitely serves this role for Trump's campaign, but I disagree with Kaine that it serves this role for the party. If Trump hasn't already destroyed the Sixth Party System in this scenario, then him going down in flames would probably push things back to the status quo. The party would survive. But an actual shooting match between party members would kill it swiftly.

Finally, the death toll wasn't at all what we expected: 26 dead from gunfire, which (sadly) isn't too extraordinary for the United States, and 106 killed by crushing, which isn't too extraordinary for the rest of the world. And...honestly, that's not unprecedented for the United States, either. Crushes and stampedes are rarer here, perhaps because of our lower population density, but the 2003 Station Nightclub fire in Rhode Island had a similar death toll due to crushing.
The Kaine piece and the retrospective piece are separate pieces written by separate authors at separate times (I mean the ten year retrospective anniversary would be in 2030 obviously, not 2033.) Guess I needed some more line breaks to make that clear?
 
The retrospective just needs sourcing to separate it from the next section--the date and where it was published, like most of the rest of the stories.
 
It's interesting that the 10-year retrospective refers to the Delegate War as the "death knell" of the Republican Party but then later changes that to only a "death knell for the far-right". I don't know where this timeline is heading (that's up to the author) but I'd say that even the assassination of a sitting Senator at the Party Convention wouldn't be enough to fully kill a political party. American political parties are incredibly resilient—the Democratic Party survived the Civil War and the 1920s, while the Republicans survived the Great Depression and 4 terms of Roosevelt—and more likely to regroup and reform their coalitions than they are to completely dissolve.

So more likely it's that the Tea Party/Trumpist/White Nationalist wing that had been rising will lose influence. I don't know if this means a return to the pre-Reagan party of social moderation and traditional fiscal conservatism (balanced budgets and limited government, but not libertarianism) or just a reset to the Bush-era party, but there will be a major realignment back towards the center within the ranks of the GOP in this timeline. The far-right wing will probably persist in some fashion, but it won't be able to dominate the way it is right now (both in real life and in the timeline).
 
So I've only read the first page so far, but I just wanted to comment on the Asian American vote for a bit.

Knowing my parents, and a lot of other older Chinese, I'd suspect that Russia news would have made them even more supportive of Trump.
 
Part 5.22 - July 21-31, 2020

Over a hundred dead in Republican convention chaos!
The long-standing divisions within the Republican Party seemed to finally come to the fore last night, when the party began to literally tear itself apart after a contentious primary campaign, causing the Republican Convention to devolve into violence. Although order has since been restored, over a hundred are believed dead and more than five hundred wounded in what's being called the "Phoenix Delegate War", where Rubio and Trump delegates battled each other on the streets with blazing firearms. Senator Rubio himself was shot in the chest; the chaos delayed medical attention for him, and he was already dead by the time doctors could examine him. Meanwhile, the White House announced that President Trump is unharmed and safe, describing an initial report that Trump had been wounded in the foot as "fake news."

But throughout it all, President Trump has finally rose to the occasion it seems, and denounced a specific perpetrator for the violence - far-right agent provocateurs who sought to betray his movement from within. "We beat the Nazis so hard in WW2 - but now they're back! That means we get to shoot Nazis again!", the President declared on Twitter, noting that the Rubio assassin who allegedly instigated the violence was a fan of the white nationalist website Stormfront. He further distinguished the "traitor" neo-Nazis from ordinary right-wing figures such as Steve Bannon. However, Trump refused to comment on reports that the assassin was also a fan of white supremacist and neo-Nazi Richard Spencer - and the subject of the first pardon the President had issued.

Moreover, President Trump insists that the convention must continue - despite the walkout of half his party, arrest of multiple attendants on charges related to the events last night, and death of over a dozen delegates. "Stopping this patriotic event is what they want, the terrorist criminals who attacked us last night. Are we going to let them win? No!", the President declared in an impromptu speech.





President Trump denounces Sig Sauer gun company - hints at regulatory action!
In a surprise move, President Trump launched a Twitter broadside against German gun company SIG Sauer this morning, denouncing them as "too greedy" and "corrupt" to recall their malfunctioning firearm, claiming that as a German company they did not care when Americans were killed. For many years, reports have spread that the SIG Sauer P320 - a semi-automatic pistol used by many police departments and civilians - may discharge when dropped in a certain position; an independent study by a gun safety organization confirmed the reports, noting that the gun had a 30-40% chance of firing when dropped. But Sig Sauer refused to launch a product recall, instead launching a voluntary upgrade program that would reportedly fix the issue. [1]

But with little publicity or reports, old flawed versions of the gun are still widespread. According to the President, a SIG Sauer pistol may have been responsible for some of the bloodshed last night - in a speech, he described a scenario in which one delegate dropped his pistol causing it to discharge - and inducing other delegates to attack him in self-defence. When reporters asked for evidence for the scenario, Trump declared "How would you know? I was there and you weren't!"

But the President may face difficulty in achieving success over this unlikely target. The U.S. Government can order the recall and repair of thousands of things - from toaster ovens to automobiles to food and drugs. But firearms is a notable exception - the government has no authority to get defective guns off the market. Former Congressman John Dingell (D-MI) is responsible for this state of affairs, having put a direct prohibition against regulating firearms and ammunition in the bill authorizing the Consumer Product Safety Commission.[2] As such, it appears that the President's intent is instead on forcing Sig Sauer to clean up its act through public pressure. The United States is by far the largest source of consumer firearm purchases in the world, and most of America's firearm consumers are strong supporters of the President.

Still, this newly moderate stance of the President - targeting bad-behaving firearm manufacturers and American Nazis - has won him significant acclaim from pundits and perhaps helped stem the bleeding from the "disaster convention."




Florida Governor Andrew Gillum announces replacement for Rubio seat
Governor Andrew Gillum (D-FL) described his deep shock and dismay to learn of Senator Rubio's death, and announced that the Democratic Party would not be contending for Rubio's seat in the special election to replace the deceased Senator this November. He furthermore explained that "Senator Rubio did not expect to become a martyr, but his last act was to repudiate President Trump and announce his support for the newfound Moderate Party. As such, I have chosen to replace Senator Rubio with the only Moderate Congressman in Florida - Congressman Charlie Crist."






President Trump accepts Republican nomination to standing ovation
The President thanked his supporters for persevering in their support for him throughout these difficult times and declared that "it's time to keep America great!" He further attacked the "fake news" media for being "obsessed" with the violence of the first day of the convention, and ignoring the ability of attendees to rise above the troubles and return to normalcy over the last few days. "So many of us gave speeches in the last few days - Joni Ernst, my own running mate! Mike Pence - I love you Mr. Pence! Sarah Palin - where are you Sarah? There - come out, give us a wave! But the fake news media won't tell you any of it!"[3]






Negative convention bounce for Republicans
Despite President Trump's efforts at moderation and appearing presidential, it appears that voters have focused on the disastrous first day of the convention that saw Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) martyred for the cause of centrism minutes after decrying the President as a traitorous criminal. The 538 now-cast polling average now shows the Warren/Kaine ticket far ahead with 42% of the vote, followed by the Moderate Romney/Conrad ticket with 30%. The President is meanwhile in 3rd place with 21% of the vote, in what would be the most humiliating result for an incumbent president since 1912.





President Trump announces arrests of neo-Nazi groups!
President Trump announced that almost a hundred far-right neo-Nazis had been arrested last night on charges related to the bombings and shootings of several immigrant communities. The President explained that there was evidence that the Rubio assassin had been radicalized by and coordinated with the groups as well, and declared that "These Nazis go against everything that makes America great! We killed them so bad in World War 2, but now they're back thanks to Obama - well, we can get rid of them again now!"

Many pro-Trump forums on the internet such as TheDonald [a website started by former reddit users after their ban from that platform] have expressed concern about the apparent purge, for fear that the now-mercurial President may have been misled in his actions. Many speculate that the "libtards" had actually organized the attacks, only to frame the alt-right instead.





Russian former chess champion Garry Kasparov dead at age 57
Garry Kasparov, the Russian chess grandmaster and former World Champion, was reported to have died in his New York City apartment at the age of 57. Kasparov was considered by many to be the greatest chess player of all time; his defeat by IBM supercomputer Deep Blue in 1997 was considered emblematic of the growing power of computing, just as AlphaGo's defeat of Lee Sedol four years ago marked the rise of machine learning. After retiring from competitive chess in 2005, Kasparov became active as a political activist and writer, attempting to "restore democracy" to Russia and seeking to run for the Russian Presidency in 2007 before quitting his bid due to governmental opposition. In recent years, he emerged as a strong critic of President Trump, describing him as a "celebrity showman with racist leanings and authoritarian tendencies."



[1] This is an actual issue with the gun in question; the voluntary upgrade program is also OTL.
[2] I highly recommend this article on the topic
[3] Honestly, I didn't really want to write any speech excerpts today, so this is my excuse as to why.

Author's note: There isn't always something dramatically eventful every week, so this update was a bit harder to write since there wasn't anything too specific tying it together.
 
President Trump announces arrests of neo-Nazi groups!
President Trump announced that almost a hundred far-right neo-Nazis had been arrested last night on charges related to the bombings and shootings of several immigrant communities. The President explained that there was evidence that the Rubio assassin had been radicalized by and coordinated with the groups as well, and declared that "These Nazis go against everything that makes America great! We killed them so bad in World War 2, but now they're back thanks to Obama - well, we can get rid of them again now!"
So must've been real easy to find. I mean, seeing as you spent much of your campaign all but cozying up to them.
 
President Trump accepts Republican nomination to standing ovation

Goddamnit. You're not fucking getting away with this, you bastard! You don't get to walk away clean from this disaster!

If he thinks he can cling to power by purging the Nazis he so brazenly courted and complaining about a gun that he dropped on his own foot, he's got another thing coming.

After retiring from competitive chess in 2005, Kasparov became active as a political activist and writer, attempting to "restore democracy" to Russia and seeking to run for the Russian Presidency in 2007 before quitting his bid due to governmental opposition. In recent years, he emerged as a strong critic of President Trump, describing him as a "celebrity showman with racist leanings and authoritarian tendencies."

Also, I highly suspect Kasparov's death here was another hit-job by Putin's goons. Even if it's entirely coincidence, the death of any Russian critic of Putin (even if by proxy of Putin's rogue sockpuppet Trump) just immediately triggers red flags by instinct now.
 
Also, I highly suspect Kasparov's death here was another hit-job by Putin's goons. Even if it's entirely coincidence, the death of any Russian critic of Putin (even if by proxy of Putin's rogue sockpuppet Trump) just immediately triggers red flags by instinct now.

It's incredible how little plausible deniability he has. If someone actually gets in a car accident or commits suicide anywhere near Russia, he is still blamed.

But he has no one to blame except himself for that.
 
It's incredible how little plausible deniability he has. If someone actually gets in a car accident or commits suicide anywhere near Russia, he is still blamed.

But he has no one to blame except himself for that.

Yeah, he really has no excuse if no one believes him if he says he honestly says he has nothing to do with his death. He's been pulling shit like this too often for too long to be able to deny it truthfully. Putin has pretty much made himself the perfect scapegoat for anyone with an axe to grind against Russia.

And to be honest, he deserves it. Get fucked, Putin.
 
President Trump announces arrests of neo-Nazi groups!

wtf i love trump now.
But yeah, like WhiteDragon said, damned if he's getting away with this. One can only hope that turning on as many people as Donald has will leave him with nothing but enemies when all is said and done. You wanted a legacy? Fine, be remembered as an incompetent who betrayed everyone who ever supported him.

Many pro-Trump forums on the internet such as TheDonald [a website started by former reddit users after their ban from that platform]

Here's how we know this is an alternate timeline. That particular subreddit seems immune to any kind of real punishment.

Russian former chess champion Garry Kasparov dead at age 57

Nothing to see here, folks! Move along, no deadly nerve agents to be found here!
 
This timeline is somehow worse than our own... I don't know to laugh at our luck or do a sad laugh that we missed a bullet...
 
Part 5.23 - August, 2020

Protesters accost Romney at Salt Lake City rally!
A few years ago, the scene facing Senator Romney in Salt Lake City would be unfathomable. Wildly popular among his Mormon brethren, Romney enjoyed approval ratings as high as 70-80% before the Trump era. But all that has changed now - while the first-term Senator is still widely popular in Utah, waves of dissent have come primarily from the right, with many Republicans upset that Romney has abandoned their party.

We spoke to several protesters. Martha Greenfield of Provo says that she's always liked Mitt - but believes it's "lying" to run for office as a Republican and then switch to another party. She thinks Romney should have resigned and run as a Moderate to fill the seat in the ensuing special election. "I don't doubt that he'd still win - and I'd probably have voted for him. But instead he's haring off to run for President. This isn't what we expected him to do in Washington!"

Others meanwhile have taken more serious umbrage with Senator Romney. Don Herbert of Salt Lake City says that he never trusted Romney but voted for him as a Republican - but now, he believes, Mitt has shown his true colors - as an agent of the deep state seeking to lay Trump low. "I don't trust the fake polls saying that Romney is doing better than Trump - that's absurd. It's clear that the deep state is going all-in for Romney. They'd have been okay with a fellow traveler like Biden or Kaine getting elected, but Liz Warren is too crazy even for them. That's why you got this crazy so-called Moderate Party, and why half of Washington is in the tank for traitor Mitt."





Mass protests in Russia after reported murder of dissident chess champion Garry Kasparov
An estimated ten thousand protesters gathered in the streets of Moscow, many of them holding up chessboards in solidarity. They were joined by a reported 100,000 fellow protesters across Russia nationwide. Their aim? To protest the murder of a man they believe to be a Russian hero: Russian dissident and former World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov.

Mr. Kasparov became the World Chess Champion at the age of 22 in 1985, and continued to hold the title until 2000 [1]. After retiring from professional chess in 2005, he brought the same dedication and intensity to his work as a Russian pro-democracy activist and dissident. He was instrumental in the formation of the anti-Putin coalition The Other Russia in 2006, and sought to run for the Russian Presidency in 2007 before giving up his bid due to governmental persecution. He was arrested by Russian police on multiple occasions before moving to New York City, where an investigation found him to have been murdered in his flat at the age of 57. The reported murder implement was an ice pick thrusted through the ear into the brain; a U.S. governmental report says that the overt nature of the assassination means that it was likely intended to "send a message."

If so, that message was received loud and clear in Russia - that even a widely respected national hero was no longer safe. Though many in the crowd disagreed with Kasparov's politics, they said that they greatly respected his chess abilities, and that Russia was better for his life. Still, the protests have no clear end goal - and Putin is still widely popular in Russia.







Chinese crisis defused by GOP convention crisis
For much of July, it appeared that the United States was rushing towards a diplomatic showdown with the People's Republic of China. It all began when President Trump tweeted support for the Hong Kong protestors, leading Chinese state news agency Xinhua to assail the U.S. President as a "fat moron" in a calculated insult, apparently intended both to retaliate at Trump and to rally Chinese nationalists in support of the government. But the move embroiled President Trump and Xi Jinping in a diplomatic showdown, with neither able to back down for fear of losing face. By the end of the month, leaks from the White House indicated that President Trump intended to sail the Pacific Fleet into disputed South China Waters as a show of force in a move experts said could risk war - his previous plan of punitive tariffs having been effectively blocked by Congress.

But all of that is history now, as the White House appears to have all but forgotten about the Chinese showdown with its rush to crack down on domestic terrorist militias post-Phoenix. The White House has not commented on China in weeks, and Xi Jinping appears content to let the matter die, having effectively had the last word in the dispute. It's not the best way to end a diplomatic crisis, but perhaps it's one that shows the quintessential nature of the Trump era - a flailing White House with a short attention span lurching from one crisis of its own making to the next.






Elizabeth Warren raises issue of felony disenfranchisement on Mic interview.
In an interview with millennial news agency Mic, Elizabeth Warren made a "forceful" case for criminal justice reforms, raising the possibility of restoring voting rights for felons who had been released from prison. In doing so, Warren noted the well-known existence of racial and gender disparities in sentencing, and pointed out that a significant portion of the well-known partisan gender gap was due only to what she termed the "ridiculous" state of criminal justice in the nation.

According to Warren, "If you look at the CNN exit polls in 2016, there's of course a giant gender gap - women voted for Hillary 54-38 and men voted for Trump 49-41. That's a 24-point gender gap - absolutely huge, the largest it's ever been before I think. But then you look at how people voted by race and gender. White men voted for Trump 59-31, white women voted for Trump 51-43. That's a 20-point gender gap. Black men voted for Hillary 84-11, black women voted for her 95-4; that's a 18-point gender gap. Latino men voted for her 68-27; Latino women voted for her 74-20 - that's a 13-point gender gap. But all of these numbers you can see are less than 24 - overall it works out to something like an 18-point gap. The rest of it - a full quarter of the gender gap - is due to turnout differences between racial groups; the ratio of black women voting to black men voting is much larger than the ratio of white women voting to white men voting. And that's because of this ridiculous state of criminal justice - something like a third of black men in this country have a felony conviction and most of them can't vote because of it which is utterly insane. You won't believe me until you look it up yourself, but we lock up around the same percentage of our population as North Korea. It's like the new Jim Crow come again."[2]





Researcher Samuel Gross claims 10% of prisoners were falsely sentenced in new study
University of Michigan professor Samuel Gross is well-known for his work in false convictions; he used statistical analysis to estimate that at least 4% of death sentences were given to falsely convicted prisoners in 2013[3]. But his new analysis is sure to turn eyebrows - both for the stunning results and his "questionable" methods in doing so.

According to Gross, the study was carried out as a random sample of over a hundred convicted prisoners who possessed potential DNA evidence that had not been tested. Some prosecutors were amenable in handing over samples - believing that the results would confirm their accuracy, but many others were skeptical. To do so, Gross says that he used "extraordinary methods" in pursuit of justice, ranging up to even organizing burglaries of several prosecutors offices, announcing his responsibility only after the three-year statute of limitations had passed. He then used statistical analysis to extrapolate the results to the prisoner population across the United States. According to Gross, he did not expect any legal journal to publish his results given the "questionable methodology", but says that "I was called to action by everything that we've seen with police brutality and legal injustice in the last decade. This is the moral crisis of our time, and I have done all that I can to fight it." [4]



BREAKING NEWS!
APPARENT KAINE-WARREN SEX TAPE GOES VIRAL ON SOCIAL MEDIA



[1] This news article is over-simplifying: The World Chess Championship underwent a split in the mid-90s - Mr. Kasparov remained the Professional World Champion, but refused to compete in the traditional FIDE World Championship.
[2] These exit poll numbers are different from OTL's numbers, but the underlying principle is also true in OTL.
[3] Details at here
[4] This characterization of Professor Gross is entirely fictional; I have no personal knowledge of him IOTL.

Author's notes:
Take all political surprises with a large grain of salt, as always.

This timeline has been nominated for the Turtledove Award for Best Cold War to Contemporary Timeline. You can vote in the poll *here* (Registration on AH.com required.) Note that the poll was conducted in two stages, so if you already voted before Sunday, you'll need to vote again for the finalists.
 
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He was arrested by Russian police on multiple occasions before moving to New York City, where an investigation found him to have been murdered in his flat at the age of 57. The reported murder implement was an ice pick thrusted through the ear into the brain; a U.S. governmental report says that the overt nature of the assassination means that it was likely intended to "send a message."

I FUCKING KNEW IT. I CALLED IT, MOTHERFUCKERS.

And you think you're being cute with the ice-pick, don't you, Putin? WELL BAD NEWS, SHITLORD: MAKING KASPAROV INTO YOUR TROTSKY WILL NOT END WELL FOR YOU!

APPARENT KAINE-WARREN SEX TAPE GOES VIRAL ON SOCIAL MEDIA

...Okay, this right here, has to be fake, just a desperately transparent attempt by Trumpie to cling to power; I mean, such a stunt would be hypocritical and thus in-character of Trumpie to pull given his own infidelities, and for it to be real would just prove how this is The Darkest Timeline with how Trumpie somehow gets away with everything again. Please let this tape be a fabrication...
 
I mean, I think Kasparov is a bit sexist, but holy shit ice pick? Even trying to be subtle?
 
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