Quoting myself because it was just released that Wenchang is expanding LM-5 launch capacity so they are most likely able to do the quick launch plan for Tianwen-3.
I heard that Wenchang current expansion plan is aiming for 10 liquid fuel launch pad and 10 solid fuel launch pad (some maybe duel use for rocket recovery) including the existing one.
spacenews.com
spacenews.com
They aren't completely stable in that they will not remain in the exact same orbits forever. Over time there will be some level of fluctuations.
What do you mean by stable? If you mean if we are at risk of losing Saturn or whatever then the answer is no. Absent a massive extrasolar body showing up and really screwing with things all the planets and whatnot are sticking around. If you mean how precisely and accurately we know their future positions then the answer, as Quickshot0 says, is that we know them very well. There is error in the projection of course that will accumulate over time but for any realistic purpose it's not a problem or easily correctable for most things and for what is more difficult it is mostly a matter of dedicating resources to get more data. The article demarcates a short timescale as less than 10 million years, so yeah, not a problem any time soon.
spacenews.com
Update.China launches reusable Shijian-19 satellite for space breeding and technology tests
HELSINKI — China launched the retrievable and reusable Shijian-19 satellite Friday to carry out a range of experiments in low Earth orbit. A Long March 2D rocket lifted off at 8:30 a.m. Eastern (1…
spacenews.com
spacenews.com
Article: The Long March 6A upper stage deployed the flat panel Qianfan (or "Thousand Sails") Polar Orbit-02 group of 18 satellites into polar orbit for Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST). The project is sometimes referred to as G60 Starlink.
The mission will be followed closely for a number of reasons. The Long March 6A, developed by the state-owned Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST), has, despite successful launchers, suffered issues with its upper stage fragmenting. Its last launch—which carried the first 18 Qianfan satellites—broke up into a cloud suspected to number more than 700 pieces of orbital debris. SAST has so far not responded to requests for comment.
Furthermore, there are concerns over the apparent brightness of the Qianfan satellites and their potential impact on astronomy.
SSST plans for the constellation's first stage to consist of 1,296 satellites. 648 of these are to be launched by the end of 2025 to provide regional network coverage. The completed network will consist of more than 14,000 low Earth orbit broadband multimedia satellites.
skyandtelescope.org
Article: Experienced visual satellite observers began recording brightness once the ephemeris data became available. Richard Cole in southwestern UK informed me that the spacecraft were magnitude 4.6 on August 15th. Bram Dorreman measured 6.1 and 5.1 on successive passes over northern Belgium on August 16th. I gauged them to be magnitude 5.2 a few hours later from Bowie, Maryland, and then at 5.8 on August 21st.
Cole, Dorreman, and I observed the Qianfan satellites between 28° and 54° above our local horizons. The data indicate brighter magnitudes at greater heights and suggest that the spacecraft shine at about magnitude 4 near zenith. That brightness compares to the magnitude 4.3 that I derived from Nick James' video, which he recorded as the satellites passed almost straight overhead.
[ . . . ]
Besides the Thousand Sails project, two other large Chinese satellite constellations are under development. The China National Network Group is planning for 13,000 spacecraft in their Guowang (also referred to as SatNet) constellation. And commercial manufacturer Landray Hongqing is building the Crane-3 constellation, which will field an anticipated 10,000 more satellites according to the company's filings. Altogether, the three constellations would tally up to 37,000 spacecraft.
[ . . . ]
The Thousand Sails spacecraft at their current brightness would seriously interfere with astronomical research as well as aesthetic appreciation of the night sky. In the U.S., SpaceX is working with astronomers to address the problem of bright spacecraft, and Starlink has succeeded in significantly reducing the brightness of its satellites. There are, however, no regulations in place as yet that govern satellite brightness. We can only hope that Chinese spacecraft operators will diminish the brightness of Thousand Sails satellites and other constellations.
I might be wrong (I don't keep up with G60 that much). I think I heard somewhere that they are as bright as some of the earliest SpaceX Starlink satellite. So if Starlink eventually address these problem perhaps so could China (hopefully). After all they still need to use their ground base telescope just as much as other country.The second batch of satellites for the Thousand Sails megaconstellation (formerly known as "G60 Starlink") has been launched:
China launches second batch of 18 satellites for Thousand Sails megaconstellation
MILAN — China successfully launched the second group of 18 satellites for the planned 14,000-satellite Thousand Sails megaconstellation Tuesday. A Long March 6A rocket lifted off from Taiyuan Satel…Article: The Long March 6A upper stage deployed the flat panel Qianfan (or "Thousand Sails") Polar Orbit-02 group of 18 satellites into polar orbit for Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST). The project is sometimes referred to as G60 Starlink.
The mission will be followed closely for a number of reasons. The Long March 6A, developed by the state-owned Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology (SAST), has, despite successful launchers, suffered issues with its upper stage fragmenting. Its last launch—which carried the first 18 Qianfan satellites—broke up into a cloud suspected to number more than 700 pieces of orbital debris. SAST has so far not responded to requests for comment.
Furthermore, there are concerns over the apparent brightness of the Qianfan satellites and their potential impact on astronomy.
SSST plans for the constellation's first stage to consist of 1,296 satellites. 648 of these are to be launched by the end of 2025 to provide regional network coverage. The completed network will consist of more than 14,000 low Earth orbit broadband multimedia satellites.
Thousand Sails is backed by the government of Shanghai. It is one of several planned Chinese megaconstellations.
As mentioned above, astronomers have also recently measured the satellites' brightness:
Observers’ Report: First Views of the Chinese “Thousand Sails” Satellites
Amateur astronomers have shown that the first satellites of the Chinese Qianfan (“Thousand Sails”) constellation are bright enough to be seen naked-eye.Article: Experienced visual satellite observers began recording brightness once the ephemeris data became available. Richard Cole in southwestern UK informed me that the spacecraft were magnitude 4.6 on August 15th. Bram Dorreman measured 6.1 and 5.1 on successive passes over northern Belgium on August 16th. I gauged them to be magnitude 5.2 a few hours later from Bowie, Maryland, and then at 5.8 on August 21st.
Cole, Dorreman, and I observed the Qianfan satellites between 28° and 54° above our local horizons. The data indicate brighter magnitudes at greater heights and suggest that the spacecraft shine at about magnitude 4 near zenith. That brightness compares to the magnitude 4.3 that I derived from Nick James' video, which he recorded as the satellites passed almost straight overhead.
[ . . . ]
Besides the Thousand Sails project, two other large Chinese satellite constellations are under development. The China National Network Group is planning for 13,000 spacecraft in their Guowang (also referred to as SatNet) constellation. And commercial manufacturer Landray Hongqing is building the Crane-3 constellation, which will field an anticipated 10,000 more satellites according to the company's filings. Altogether, the three constellations would tally up to 37,000 spacecraft.
[ . . . ]
The Thousand Sails spacecraft at their current brightness would seriously interfere with astronomical research as well as aesthetic appreciation of the night sky. In the U.S., SpaceX is working with astronomers to address the problem of bright spacecraft, and Starlink has succeeded in significantly reducing the brightness of its satellites. There are, however, no regulations in place as yet that govern satellite brightness. We can only hope that Chinese spacecraft operators will diminish the brightness of Thousand Sails satellites and other constellations.
I think the debris problem will likely be dealt with quickly, since polluting their own orbits goes directly against their interests.
I am not sure how soon the brightness issue will be addressed. That may depend on how much influence China's domestic observational astronomers have.
Multiple of Their next generation rocket will have siimiliar capacity as LM-6A. So I wonder if China just think it is fine to just keep launching it until those rocket start launching and phase out LM-6A rather than solving the problem with it
They should be grounding the LM-6A if they can't fix it and wait for the phase out. If not for the sake of the rest of the world then for themselves. It is polluting their own orbits.
spacenews.com
5 meter diameter
I think for Haolong at least it is decent size smaller than dreamchaser. Heard some people compare it to if X-37B have a cargo variant.
