People probably don't think the walls can be taken by storm before the winter starts.
I get that but starving them out over the winter makes more sense. Since the region has been in rebellion there are not as many men in the fields and not as much grain or other food being grown. They have already sent out a force out to gather food before we got there. Just putting a token guard means we out of the fight till spring.
 
I get that but starving them out over the winter makes more sense. Since the region has been in rebellion there are not as many men in the fields and not as much grain or other food being grown. They have already sent out a force out to gather food before we got there. Just putting a token guard means we out of the fight till spring.

Both of the plans starve them out over the winter. One focuses on having a permanent camp while the other focuses on cutting off the roads and supply lanes. The permanent camp carries the risk of of our own supply chain getting disrupted (or backstabbed by the Hirpines), while the other puts a bit less pressure immediately in favour of harrassment (and potentially luring out the people at Nola into a pitched battle outside the city)
 
Nola has stood besieged for close to four years now, the only respite being briefly provided by the Civil War of Marius and Sulla, allowing the Samnites to replenish their food stores and bolster their flagging morale. However, now they no longer face a simple militia force encamped beyond their walls, but the might of a full legion of Rome, swelled even further by thousands of their own kinsmen.
For nearly three years, the three thousand men that make up their primary force have held the city of Nola, which up until last year was besieged by Roman auxiliaries and militia. The Civil War and the conflict in Greece have forced Rome to withdraw even those meager forces, allowing food and supplies into the Samnite-held city. This has effectively restored the flagging will of their army, and bolstered their resistance against Roman efforts to subdue them.

In fact, the garrison housed within Nola now numbers over 5,000 men in total, likely far greater than it was ever meant to hold given that the Roman garrison numbered less than half that at 2,000 men during the height of the Social War. Enough men have rushed to join Medix Appius at Nola that the lands of Samnium now lay deserted, as the scouts of the legion made note of several months past.
Old men who have hated Rome in their bones since they were babes march to join Medix at Nola alongside boys barely babes themselves, young men desperate to protect their families and their homes. Scouts the legion sends ahead report entire towns deserted as fathers, sons, and grandsons march to take up arms against the legion, like their ancestors who defied the might of Rome in the days of tooth and stone.

I suspect that contrary to the belief that the Samnities within the walls of Nola are full of vigor and in good morale, that their situation is looking increasingly desperate. Before the renewed siege even properly began there was a breakout attempt that was thwarted by Sertorius that saw hundreds of Samnites dead, driven back behind the walls, or fleeing into the hills.
Sertorius defeated an attempt by one of Appius' lieutenants to break out with a sizeable portion of the army before the siege proper began. Several hundred men escaped and made their way into the countryside, but the great majority were either killed or sent back into the city, where they aren't counted among the battle-ready men stationed within due to being wounded. Some 5,130 men remain within the city in total, with somewhere between 200 to 600 running around the countryside, cut off from the leadership within.

I say we press the advantage. Nola is surrounded and cut off, with no reinforcements coming. If Atellus takes steps to ensure that no food and supplies slips back into the city, and with it's defenders having wounded amongst them, even a legendary commander like Appius is reputed to be will not be able to stop the doubts creeping into the minds of his men.

Therefore, the plan I advocate not only has us begin to push for sieging aggressively, but also to cut Nola off from all possible foodstuff before offering an open hand of mercy to any Samnite who finds that bread is a much more filling meal than a doomed cause. I'd even go so far as to offer terms of surrender to Medix and his men, generous ones, especially since there is precedence of such a thing not even a few years past when Gaius Papius Mutilus, the leader of the Samnite forces during the Social War four years ago, was granted Roman citizenship after his defeat by Sulla.

At Aquilonia we won the hearts of the Pentri with a sword in one hand and bread in the other, let us see if we can perform a feat of similar nature here.

[X] Plan Via Verbi
-[X] Spend 950 free XP on Diplomacy to level up
-[X] The Mercator Stratagem
-[X] Siege
--[1] Outriders
--[2] An Army Marches On Its Stomach

---[X] You take a few legionnaires with you and set about 'convincing' them to 'donate'.
--[3] A Matter of Allied Officers
--[4] A Crack in the Walls
--[5] Engines of War
-[X] Personal
--[1] Old One-Eye
--[2] Bonds of Brotherhood
--[3] Write Home

---[x] Scaevola
---[x] Cicero
--[4] Silver Tongues, Silver Words
--[5] Expand Journal
 
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[x] Plan Wait Out The Winter And Be Productive

While the Pompolussan Stratagem has a significantly higher chance of successfully starving Nola out over the winter, the Carcellan Stratagem has a good chance to cause more of Meddix's subordinates to flee the city with their men. This could open up the possibility of storming the city against a much weaker garrison come next spring. Moving the legion back to Beneventum also allows us to react more quickly to any other issues arising throughout Samnium. Right now Samnium is pretty much pacified and it's last viable army is sitting behind walls. If we keep the rest of Samnium happy and Meddix doesn't come out, then his men will start to abandon him.

Even if it doesn't work out that perfectly, I have no problem spending the whole next year sitting infront of Nola. The military lessons we could learn here, with Sertorius and Tercerus by our side, make up for other lost opportunities.
 
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Both of the plans starve them out over the winter. One focuses on having a permanent camp while the other focuses on cutting off the roads and supply lanes. The permanent camp carries the risk of of our own supply chain getting disrupted (or backstabbed by the Hirpines), while the other puts a bit less pressure immediately in favour of harrassment (and potentially luring out the people at Nola into a pitched battle outside the city)
I don't see them starving out unless we set up the winter camp. They sent out the force earlier to get food and since the local populace is sympathetic to them they will be getting food from the local towns. Even if it is just a trickle that would still give them hope of holding out. They would not have sent out a force unless they were desperate for food.

The terrain favors them, and the fact that these is there home turfs also gives them a advantage. The only reason we beat Gemino is because we knew where he was going. So even if we hunt down the outriders I do not know if we will be able to get all of them. Setting up the winter camp puts more direct pressure and makes it exceedingly harder for them to get resupplied. I cannot see a cohort able to effectly keep out help or keep in the samnites.
 
I don't see them starving out unless we set up the winter camp. They sent out the force earlier to get food and since the local populace is sympathetic to them they will be getting food from the local towns. Even if it is just a trickle that would still give them hope of holding out. They would not have sent out a force unless they were desperate for food.

The terrain favors them, and the fact that these is there home turfs also gives them a advantage. The only reason we beat Gemino is because we knew where he was going. So even if we hunt down the outriders I do not know if we will be able to get all of them. Setting up the winter camp puts more direct pressure and makes it exceedingly harder for them to get resupplied. I cannot see a cohort able to effectly keep out help or keep in the samnites.

Which is why the plan doesn't station a cohort there, but guards the roads and uses the cavalry and the allies to keep up the harassment and prevent food from going in. You're speculating as to why the troops in the city tried a breakout - It doesn't necessarily have to be because they were desperate for food.

No matter what, the troops in Nola are unlikely to starve this winter (my personal opinion), so the siege unnecessarily exposes our legion to danger and makes our troops miserable.
 
Like Caesar (who was there, and so knows from firsthand experience) says, there is an aqueduct which feeds the city. You could try infiltrating through that, but it's almost certainly watched. You're not exactly a master of subterfuge, so figuring out how to do that is going to be more than a little complicated.



Nola's walls are roughly 11 or 12 meters tall. There are places where they're weaker than others due to having been besieged by Sulla and the Romans during the Social War three years ago, but generally, they're as solid as when they repulsed Hannibal a century ago. Like Caesar (who, again, was probably there) said, the fortified area which the Samnites are defending is relatively small, meaning they can cycle out men and keep their units fresh.

And yes, to answer those wondering, Sertorius defeated an attempt by one of Appius' lieutenants to break out with a sizeable portion of the army before the siege proper began. Several hundred men escaped and made their way into the countryside, but the great majority were either killed or sent back into the city, where they aren't counted among the battle-ready men stationed within due to being wounded. Some 5,130 men remain within the city in total, with somewhere between 200 to 600 running around the countryside, cut off from the leadership within. Letting any of these men return to the city with supplies or reinforcements would be a bad idea.
Which is why the plan doesn't station a cohort there, but guards the roads and uses the cavalry and the allies to keep up the harassment and prevent food from going in. You're speculating as to why the troops in the city tried a breakout - It doesn't necessarily have to be because they were desperate for food.

No matter what, the troops in Nola are unlikely to starve this winter (my personal opinion), so the siege unnecessarily exposes our legion to danger and makes our troops miserable.
Telamon told us letting any of the outriders return back to Nola with supplies or reinforcements is a bad thing. Making the winter camp better prepares us for the siege and allows us to keep everyone out or in.
 
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[X] Plan Digging In
-[X] Spend 950 free XP on Diplomacy to level up
-[X] The Pompolussan Stratagem
-[1] Outriders
-[2] A Matter of Allies
-[3] Blessed by Mars
-[1] Old One-Eye
-[2] Bonds of Brotherhood
-[3] Write Home:
--[X] Scaevola
--[X] Cicero
-[4] Study Logistics
-[5] Study Finance
 
Telamon told us letting any of the outriders return back to Nola with supplies or reinforcements is a bad thing. Making the winter camp better prepares us for the siege and allows us to keep everyone out or in.

Which is a different argument from 'they're starving'. And I think guarding the roads better accomplishes the goal of intercepting reinforcements to the city before they become a problem (like if the valley army suddenly grows a spine and steps out to reinforce Nola and catch the Roman camp in a pincer).
 
[X] Plan Digging In

I don't really see why we should study finance now, but everything else I like, and xp distribution is never unanimuous, so W/E.
 
@Camiadus I would swap "Silver tongues" with "Study engineering"; that would be more directly useful for the siege imho.

Which is a different argument from 'they're starving'. And I think guarding the roads better accomplishes the goal of intercepting reinforcements to the city before they become a problem (like if the valley army suddenly grows a spine and steps out to reinforce Nola and catch the Roman camp in a pincer).
Telamon told us letting any of the outriders return back to Nola with supplies or reinforcements is a bad thing. Making the winter camp better prepares us for the siege and allows us to keep everyone out or in.

As I understand, Sertorius could not effectively besiege Nola because he was lacking in numbers; that's why he's been wanting reinforcements the whole summer.

Now he has the whole legion, plus the Hirpini, so that he can mount an effective siege, which he couldn't before.

Distant blockades can work, but in this case I don't see why we would do it when we can squeeze the Samnites with a much tighter grip.

If there is unexpected threats (like Tercerian coming out of the valley) that's what the fortifying is for, so that we can withstand a counter-siege. See Alesia.
 
Distant blockades work best when the blockading force doesn't have to march a couple of days in the snow to reach the place they're blockading, and when "area denial" weapons like land mines are a factor, which they aren't in this case.

Damn, missed that. Yeah, I'm good with the plan, whether we focus on the officers or their rank and file.

Should we focus on the officers, it might work because we can make a focused effort on fewer individuals. Fewer individuals to bribe, cajole, and befriend, and their men are likely to follow suit.
The thing is "A Matter of Allies" (my choice) focuses mostly on our soldiers, who we already have a relationship with, not the Hirpini soldiers. Conversely, "A Matter of Allied Officers" focuses on the Hirpini officers.

On the other hand, I feel that the Hirpini soldiery and our legionnaires would be more susceptible to our speechcraft, and honestly, if we're going to be besieging Nola for awhile, then we might as well bring the Hirpini onboard comprehensively as quick as we can.
I agree, but at the same time I want to strike a balance between cementing the Hirpini and keeping our own legion's morale and character solid. It's going to be a tough winter under the Pompolussan Strategem, especially if (GODS FORBID) the Samnites have another Gemino or two's worth of guerilla whupassery to throw at us.

[X] Plan Digging In

My only problem with the plan was that I thought the Blessed by Mars option was about consulting the augury. Since it's instead codifying the worship of Mars in the legion I'm going to vote for it. I like all three siege actions a lot and while I'd prefer to expand the journal I can see the merit of studying logistics and finance.
As I understand it, we're still keeping the journal on military affairs, we just aren't expanding it to include our sophomoric maunderings about philosophy and politics. Which is probably just as well; I suspect Atellus' views on such matters are still a bit groanworthy and juvenile. :p

No need to feel insulted because I gave someone else my opinion on his suggestions.
Curse the toneless Internet... I'm not actually feeling insulted, I just think that you should feel encouraged to propose or support an alternative plan. Personally, I like the idea of corresponding with both our patron (the preeminent lawmaker and high priest in Rome) and Cicero (the preeminent statesman of our generation).

Besides, yeah, why not write Proserpina. Maybe ask her about our sister's suitors, see what there is on the market.
We could, to be fair, do worse.

I got to ask why people are voting to wait winter out. All it does is put off the fight till spring.
People probably don't think the walls can be taken by storm before the winter starts.
The thing is, that explains voting against Mercator's strategy, but not voting for Carcellus' strategy over Pompolussa's. Carcellus' strategy effectively abandons the siege over the winter, and it's going to be hard for us to increase our army's strength as fast as the Samnites increase theirs. They can recruit from the countryside, smuggle/bring supplies into Nola, and maybe even try to send negotiators to the Hirpini (either the Hirpini army auxiliaries, or the Hirpini homeland) to persuade them to abandon our cause. About all we can do is try not to lose the Hirpini.

So all things considered, I think keeping the bulk of our forces forward-deployed to continue prosecuting the siege through the winter is pretty necessary.

[] Plan Digging In

Roman aggression has served us well up to this point, but Roman persistence is what we need here.
Ave!

Both of the plans starve them out over the winter. One focuses on having a permanent camp while the other focuses on cutting off the roads and supply lanes. The permanent camp carries the risk of of our own supply chain getting disrupted (or backstabbed by the Hirpines), while the other puts a bit less pressure immediately in favour of harrassment (and potentially luring out the people at Nola into a pitched battle outside the city)
Firstly, our small forces cutting the enemy's roads and supply lines are vulnerable to being snipped off by the main Samnite army in Nola, or even by the guerillas, if we're not careful. Remember, our road-blocking forces will be much closer to Nola than they would be to our winter camp near Benventum. Meddix may well, under the right conditions, be able to march out of Nola, hit a cohort-sized force that's encamped to block a road into Nola, and return to the safety of Nola's fortifications before Sertorius even finds out the cohort has been attacked, let alone has time to mobilize and march to its aid.

Furthermore, our road-blocking forces will still require supplies and those will be highly vulnerable to guerillas, especially since we'll need several road-blocking forces spread across multiple roadways to cut access into Nola. Instead of having a single line of supply bringing one heavily guarded convoy at a time into a main supply dump in our winter siege camp, we'll have multiple lines bringing smaller convoys into multiple smaller camp/outposts.

While the Pompolussan Stratagem has a significantly higher chance of successfully starving Nola out over the winter, the Carcellan Stratagem has a good chance to cause more of Meddix's subordinates to flee the city with their men. This could open up the possibility of storming the city against a much weaker garrison come next spring. Moving the legion back to Beneventum also allows us to react more quickly to any other issues arising throughout Samnium. Right now Samnium is pretty much pacified and it's last viable army is sitting behind walls. If we keep the rest of Samnium happy and Meddix doesn't come out, then his men will start to abandon him.
Waaait. Let's stop and think about this one for a minute.

Samnium is pacified, its last viable army is behind walls. We have said army bottled up inside Nola,

What happens when we loosen the cork in the bottle?

Will Meddix continue squatting passively behind his walls, while (you predict) his subordinates desert him? Or will he move, maneuver, rally the countryside to recruit more men, and act against our small blocking forces? I'm pretty sure I remember him being the product of the Samnites critting their "roll up a badass hero" roll. I'd bet on him being at least as tough, smart, and resourceful as Gemino. Which means that like Gemino, if we give him a chance to act against us freely, without using overwhelming force to physically pin him in place, we're in trouble. He's going to wriggle loose and start kicking us in the flanks and rear.

Basically, Samnium is very likely to wind up de-pacified in short order if Meddix has reasonably free access to the countryside.

Which is why the plan doesn't station a cohort there, but guards the roads and uses the cavalry and the allies to keep up the harassment and prevent food from going in.
Who's guarding the roads? We can't scatter the whole legion through the countryside; the blocking forces covering individual roads into Nola can't be much larger than a cohort if we're simultaneously keeping the bulk of the legion in winter quarters at Bovianum. If they're smaller than a cohort, they're all the easier for the Samnites to snap up and destroy, while our main body is far away and impeded by weather from reaching Nola in time to protect our little detachments.

In essence, we'd be opening ourselves to having a Fabian strategy used against us. To weaken the Samnites we must sustain troops in the immediate area around Nola... but if we sustain fewer troops, those troops are more vulnerable to counter-action, until eventually sustaining those troops becomes... unsustainble.

TBH, I'd much rather finance be journal writing, @Simon_Jester. Any way to convince you to change it to that in case my plan loses?
If I were convinced that journal writing was more popular I'd go for it. I'm not... entirely convinced.

ATTENTION EVERYBODY:

If enough people weigh in on whether the last entry in "Digging In" should be studying finance or expanding our journal, I may change my plan if my otherwise-current plan would conflict with that decision.
 
Inserted tally
Adhoc vote count started by Nurgle on Apr 16, 2018 at 6:13 PM, finished with 2816 posts and 36 votes.
 
The thing is, that explains voting against Mercator's strategy, but not voting for Carcellus' strategy over Pompolussa's. Carcellus' strategy effectively abandons the siege over the winter, and it's going to be hard for us to increase our army's strength as fast as the Samnites increase theirs. They can recruit from the countryside, smuggle/bring supplies into Nola, and maybe even try to send negotiators to the Hirpini (either the Hirpini army auxiliaries, or the Hirpini homeland) to persuade them to abandon our cause. About all we can do is try not to lose the Hirpini.

So all things considered, I think keeping the bulk of our forces forward-deployed to continue prosecuting the siege through the winter is pretty necessary.

Except they can't recruit from the countryside because that's the whole point of blanketing it with soldiers and scouts. The Samnites have the same mobility problems that we do thanks to the snow, they're not going to manage to recruit people on their farms to go into a blockaded city when we've already struck our own deals with the Hirpini.

Firstly, our small forces cutting the enemy's roads and supply lines are vulnerable to being snipped off by the main Samnite army in Nola, or even by the guerillas, if we're not careful. Remember, our road-blocking forces will be much closer to Nola than they would be to our winter camp near Benventum. Meddix may well, under the right conditions, be able to march out of Nola, hit a cohort-sized force that's encamped to block a road into Nola, and return to the safety of Nola's fortifications before Sertorius even finds out the cohort has been attacked, let alone has time to mobilize and march to its aid.

This is why we have scouts watching the city for march out. The winter movement problem applies to them as well. Cohorts can move faster than a whole army, they would be unlikely to be picked off. And this opens the opportunity of actually catching Meddix out in the open.

Furthermore, our road-blocking forces will still require supplies and those will be highly vulnerable to guerillas, especially since we'll need several road-blocking forces spread across multiple roadways to cut access into Nola. Instead of having a single line of supply bringing one heavily guarded convoy at a time into a main supply dump in our winter siege camp, we'll have multiple lines bringing smaller convoys into multiple smaller camp/outposts.

From what legendary guerilla leader? You mean the ones we slaughtered and sold into slavery? Terceran would march out with an army, not guerillas.

Waaait. Let's stop and think about this one for a minute.

Samnium is pacified, its last viable army is behind walls. We have said army bottled up inside Nola,

What happens when we loosen the cork in the bottle?

Will Meddix continue squatting passively behind his walls, while (you predict) his subordinates desert him? Or will he move, maneuver, rally the countryside to recruit more men, and act against our small blocking forces? I'm pretty sure I remember him being the product of the Samnites critting their "roll up a badass hero" roll. I'd bet on him being at least as tough, smart, and resourceful as Gemino. Which means that like Gemino, if we give him a chance to act against us freely, without using overwhelming force to physically pin him in place, we're in trouble. He's going to wriggle loose and start kicking us in the flanks and rear.

Basically, Samnium is very likely to wind up de-pacified in short order if Meddix has reasonably free access to the countryside.

Except he doesn't have free access to the countryside.

Meanwhile, setting up camp does in fact expose us to Terceran's army cutting off our supplies in one fell swoop.
 
Waaait. Let's stop and think about this one for a minute.

Samnium is pacified, its last viable army is behind walls. We have said army bottled up inside Nola,

What happens when we loosen the cork in the bottle?

Will Meddix continue squatting passively behind his walls, while (you predict) his subordinates desert him? Or will he move, maneuver, rally the countryside to recruit more men, and act against our small blocking forces? I'm pretty sure I remember him being the product of the Samnites critting their "roll up a badass hero" roll. I'd bet on him being at least as tough, smart, and resourceful as Gemino. Which means that like Gemino, if we give him a chance to act against us freely, without using overwhelming force to physically pin him in place, we're in trouble. He's going to wriggle loose and start kicking us in the flanks and rear.

Basically, Samnium is very likely to wind up de-pacified in short order if Meddix has reasonably free access to the countryside.
I don't have much time this week (which is also the reason I didn't propose a plan for once :V), so I have to keep this short. I don't see the big risk with loosening the cork. (Although I doubt Meddix would leave Nola to rampage through Samnium. He stayed in Nola long before any Roman forces came to besiege him.)

This not Average Tribune (us) vs badass war hero (Gemino). This is Sertorius, with his Epic or higher Military Stats/Skills + Gift of Mars, vs Meddix. If Meddix comes out of his walls, he will have to be very careful not to get cut off.

In the end everything comes down to dice rolls and I think Sertorius (with his high modifiers) has a good chance of not letting himself be outmanoeuvred. Meanwhile I'm not certain that Logistics (a key part of Digging In) is Sertorius' great strength.
 
[X] Plan Digging In
-[X] Spend 950 free XP on Diplomacy to level up
-[X] The Pompolussan Stratagem
-[1] Outriders
-[2] A Matter of Allies
-[3] Blessed by Mars
-[1] Old One-Eye
-[2] Bonds of Brotherhood
-[3] Write Home:
--[X] Scaevola
--[X] Cicero
-[4] Study Logistics
-[5] Study Finance
 
[X] Plan Digging In

I don't have much time this week (which is also the reason I didn't propose a plan for once :V), so I have to keep this short. I don't see the big risk with loosening the cork. (Although I doubt Meddix would leave Nola to rampage through Samnium. He stayed in Nola long before any Roman forces came to besiege him.)

This not Average Tribune (us) vs badass war hero (Gemino). This is Sertorius, with his Epic or higher Military Stats/Skills + Gift of Mars, vs Meddix. If Meddix comes out of his walls, he will have to be very careful not to get cut off.

In the end everything comes down to dice rolls and I think Sertorius (with his high modifiers) has a good chance of not letting himself be outmanoeuvred. Meanwhile I'm not certain that Logistics (a key part of Digging In) is Sertorius' great strength.

Thing is:

I would like to remind people that the roll for the leader we are fighting was nat 20. So we are fighting a epic leader. Just let that sink in.

While I definitely believe you have a point that Sertorious stands a chance against Medix in a straight up fight, Medix is a nat 20 hero, and we are not proposing an outright fight yet. It's outright stated that if we take him down, Samnium more or less follows.

This isn't so much a cork than us loosening the noose around his neck. Plan Carcella will give him time to manuever, to send riders and messengers out, it gives him wiggle room to act, and with him being a nat hero, I don't doubt that he might make use of his time better than we can. Sure, with his numbers he might not be able to do much but he's a nat 20 hero, I'm expecting a hilarious level of bullshit not unlike Gemino being a pain in our side despite his crap numbers.

I don't want to risk it, and even give him time to breathe. Stats won't do much against plainly being outnumbered 3 to 1 and being starved out for the winter. Plan Carcella gives him precious time to leverage his superior non-battle stats whereas Plan Pompolussa and Plan Mercator put pressure on him and deny plenty of his actions.
 
@simon jester studying finance syngerizes well with writing Scaevola. So I would keep it.
Yeah, me too, but if I hear a groundswell in favor of changing the plan I'll do it. There's lots of synergy waiting to be grabbed if we think about it. For instance, expanding our journal to include more philosophy and stuff would synergize well with exchanging letters with noted Roman intellectuals (like Scaevola and Cicero).

Except they can't recruit from the countryside because that's the whole point of blanketing it with soldiers and scouts. The Samnites have the same mobility problems that we do thanks to the snow, they're not going to manage to recruit people on their farms to go into a blockaded city when we've already struck our own deals with the Hirpini.
Again, Fabian strategy. Hanging lots of little detachments out where the enemy can get at them means lots of little skirmishes between their men and ours. We'll probably win some, and they'll probably win some, but if the main body of our army is off by Beneventum, roughly twenty miles away, then we aren't going to be in a position to rapidly move all our forces out of winter quarters and to the region around Nola to meet the enemy's forces in a field battle. It will take literally a whole day just to get our troops moving and into position if Meddix sorties, even in relatively good winter weather.

Which means our troops in and around Nola will be on their own for an extended time before anyone arrives.

If you have the idea that the Carcellan strategy involves blanketing the area around Nola with troops, you are mistaken. The overall size of our force in the immediate surroundings of Nola isn't going to be a majority, it's going to be a limited force. The option is described as "to pull the entire legion back to Beneventum and simply have a cohort hold the roads out of Beneventum to stop supplies from getting in, with scouts watching the city itself to report any activity." That is "a" cohort, as in a singular cohort.

This is why we have scouts watching the city for march out. The winter movement problem applies to them as well. Cohorts can move faster than a whole army, they would be unlikely to be picked off.
That depends on the cohort, and on what they're doing. I bet Meddix could sortie a few thousand men just after sunset and stage a night attack on the encampment of a single cohort blockading a road near Nola (by definition, the road giving him a quick line of march TO the blockade site), and probably be done with the affair by dawn if not earlier and ready to return, before Sertorius could possibly get any substantial force of his men halfway over from Beneventum.

From what legendary guerilla leader? You mean the ones we slaughtered and sold into slavery? Terceran would march out with an army, not guerillas.
...Do you really think Gemino is the only man in Samnium who knows how to practice guerilla warfare? Hell, we didn't even get all of HIS men.

Any small enough force of fighting men in hill country like Samnium is a guerilla force almost by default. If your plan is based on the assumption that the Samnites won't practice guerilla warfare against scattered forces that you imagine "blanketing" the countryside around Nola at a distance of a full day's march from their home base... That is not a good plan.

Except he doesn't have free access to the countryside.
If the only army that can stop him is twenty miles away, he doesn't have free access to the countryside, but he can sortie for hours at a time with little or no danger of being intercepted. Especially since two can play at this "scouts" game, remember? If we can monitor him, eh can monitor us.

Meanwhile, setting up camp does in fact expose us to Terceran's army cutting off our supplies in one fell swoop.
Tercerian's army isn't going anywhere without collapsing or without a major change of leadership. If it does, well... if our scouting and overall ability to have a clear picture of what's going on in our surroundings is nearly good enough to make your version of the Carcellan plan (which appears far, far exaggerated in terms of how much manpower we forward-deploy far from our base)... We really, really don't have to worry about the Vulturnus rebels somehow sneaking up on us and cutting our supply line before we can react and hit them with an overwhelming and probably much better trained, better-led force.

I would like to remind people that the roll for the leader we are fighting was nat 20. So we are fighting a epic leader. Just let that sink in.
Yeah. I HOPE we're not up against Legendary (+8) stats, but Epic (+6) wouldn't surprise me at all. Remember, the Samnites rolled a 25 to get Meddix, whereas Gemino was "ONLY" the product of a 21 on the die. Gemino was +4/+4, so it would be very surprising if Meddix wasn't +6/+6. That's the next step up after all. He might (O _ O) be even better.

Sertorius probably has the bonuses to counteract him, I bet, but I doubt any of his subordinates do, including us. Which means that any battle where Sertorius personally doesn't show up, and Meddix does, is probably going to go badly for the Romans.

Which, in turn, is very bad for any plan that involves Sertorius dangling out small, vulnerable cohort-sized detachments fifteen miles away from his own winter quarters and five miles away from Meddix's.

This not Average Tribune (us) vs badass war hero (Gemino). This is Sertorius, with his Epic or higher Military Stats/Skills + Gift of Mars, vs Meddix. If Meddix comes out of his walls, he will have to be very careful not to get cut off.
Meddix is almost certainly superior to Gemino as a military leader. He probably can't outdo Sertorius but he probably CAN beat any of Sertorius's lieutenants (i.e. us or Mercator) like a drum.

In the end everything comes down to dice rolls and I think Sertorius (with his high modifiers) has a good chance of not letting himself be outmanoeuvred. Meanwhile I'm not certain that Logistics (a key part of Digging In) is Sertorius' great strength.
I doubt Logistics is specifically his weakness, and he has much more force to counter an attack on his supply line than any of our likely opponents do to strike at it... as long as Meddix stays in the bottle.

If Meddix has the freedom of maneuver gained by knowing his enemy's only force capable of threatening his main body is twenty miles of icy roads away, while much smaller and less ably led contingents of enemy forces are much closer to him... That sounds like a recipe for 'defeat in detail,' or rather inviting defeat in detail by getting one cohort after another ground up dealing with Meddix's forces dangerously close to Nola.
 
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