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Pope Urban's great shock - The 2014 Middle East ISOT'ed to 1095 CE

I'm almost completely sure Iraq just collapses immediately. Give or take a few months, maybe six at the most before the government collapses.

Yeah Iraq was basically saved last minute from being a lot worse off in the civil war by being pumped with money and training of personnel and logistical support.

Cut all that out, and we basically get what we had during the beginning of the civil war: a complete shitshow.

Iraq has a massive power problem and with being suddenly knocked away from everyone else all the lights are gonna go off quick for most of the country (considering the fact that before 2014 the power was STILL shit you basically break the entire country). Not to mention that the countries Iraq imports power from are now medieval hellholes yeah... Iraq in particular is really fucked. ISIS holds the Mosul Dam, and there's not going to be a US airforce that's going to stop them from taking the Haditha Dam and the many power stations around Mosul and nothing is really stopping them from destroying the ones in Baghdad.

Not to mention that holy shit is 2014 a bad year in particular because they were getting slaughtered by ISIS with August 31st being the turning point where the world finally got off its ass to fight ISIS. With no outside help coming ISIS can really fuck up Iraq and I don't really think that any of the left over nations that are still 'functional' have enough to save Iraq before the government largely collapses

I'm almost positive that Iraq would go into general famine by the end of the first few months, without even considering how much of the farmable land is probably under ISIS.
 
liberty90 said:
...not really, no, Imho. Health issues, malnutrition, cultural issues (like, it's obvious to the pilgrims that you can beat your own children) - not many people would want to simply allow these pilgrims.
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I'm speaking about the fact, that OTL Israel allows Christian pilgrims free access to the Christian holy sites in Jerusalem and to other Christian holy sites in Israel.
 
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azadi said:
I'm speaking about the fact, that OTL Israel allows Christian pilgrims free access to the Christian holy sites in Jerusalem and to other Christian holy sites in Israel.
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Yeah, modern Christians, but would they allow downtime Christians? There are health dangers in that, and medieval Europeans would literally loot garbage for such "treasures" as broken mirrors, glass bottles and old clothes.
 
The only countries, which are ISOTed, are Israel, Syria and Iraq (including South (Iraqi) Kurdistan).
 
liberty90 said:
Wouldn't then Israel simply nuke ISIS?

Are Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc also ISOTed?
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I mean, yeah but I'm just stating how fucked Iraq is. I have like no idea how nuclear weapons are gonna really help because Iraq has a lot of resources that if Israel wants to remain in a preISOT state probably want if they're gonna collapse. I think it'd be more of a bloody battle for the corpse of the remains of what used to be Iraq and what authority is left from the collapse of the government.
 
liberty90 said:
To shatter 10 000 medieval army you need about:
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You need to be able to fire tens of thousands of rounds consistently, that's not something they will be able to do for long. It's basically the same issue as a zombie apocalypse.
liberty90 said:
Even ISIS could refine some oil, and produce weapons & ammunition, in its workshops, because generally speaking this is not a hard stuff when you have the hard part
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Except ISIS had contacts with the outside, they were selling barrels of crude in return for food and munitions.

azadi said:
Israel will likely be supported by Christian Europe
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Wow that would never happen. The holy land being controlled by Jews? No fucking way, that's just as bad as it being controlled by Muslims. The Muslims allowed free access to the holy sites before the crusades too, didn't help them.
 
yinko said:
You need to be able to fire tens of thousands of rounds consistently, that's not something they will be able to do for long.
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Not really as much as modern warfare, colonial wars where spearmen were moved down like grass were much less ammo-intensive than modern suppressive fire. There was no really modern logistics in late XIX century South Africa.

You are not shooting constantly to suppress movement for days (there are war stockpiles for one month of that), or to force your modern enemy into hiding/trenches instead of advancing. No. You are shooting to kill.

yinko said:
It's basically the same issue as a zombie apocalypse.
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Not really, no. People need morale and command & control. When full plate armor worth ten villages us useless against police/hunters/irregulars, and you can be shot outside of range of your weapons, morale shatters.

This could be also done with
one aircraft
one helicopter
or
10 snipers
or
5 km of barbed wire
or
any minefield

And I surely should remember about something.
 
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azadi said:
Israel has a large arms industry. It will ensure Israel being the superpower of this world.
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Pretty much this its not like anyone can offer meaningful resistance. ISIS gets massacred as they have no industry at all.
Arab states fall to Anarchy and swiftly become Israeli puppets. Pope better start teaching how great Jews are or the next one will. Rabbis are going to have to deal with an awful lot of people thinking of converting.
 
I know what I should remember: if you have enough oil for about three tanks you can drive these against medieval infantry/cavalry.

It's hard to remove human meat from tracks, though. (flies and unpleasant stuff everywhere - we know, Japanese tried to attack tanks with bayonets, though they had some modern explosives at least).

There are still tanks from 1950' that somewhat work. Ammo used, 0, if you want to be truly frugal.
 
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yinko said:
You need to be able to fire tens of thousands of rounds consistently, that's not something they will be able to do for long. It's basically the same issue as a zombie apocalypse.
Except ISIS had contacts with the outside, they were selling barrels of crude in return for food and munitions.

Wow that would never happen. The holy land being controlled by Jews? No fucking way, that's just as bad as it being controlled by Muslims. The Muslims allowed free access to the holy sites before the crusades too, didn't help them.
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The Seljuks limited access to the Christian holy sites in Jerusalem. That's the reason, why the First Crusade happened. It's true, that Muslim rulers of Jerusalem allowed Christian pilgrims free access to the Christian holy sites in Jerusalem before the Seljuks took power, and Christian Europe tolerated Muslim rule of Jerusalem and the Holy Land then. It's true, that Christian Europe was very anti-Semitic in 1095 CE, but pope Urban will realize the danger of ISIS, and will consider Israel the better option compared to ISIS. Israel isn't bent on destruction of Christendom unlike ISIS. Pope Urban might be bigoted, but he isn't stupid. In addition, the Catholic church sometimes tried to limit pogroms against Jews in the Middle Ages. In a world, where the uptime Middle Eastern states and entities are technologically vastly superior to Christian Europe, OTL attitudes in Christian Europe will likely change. Something similar to OTL Christian Zionism might develop in Europe.
 
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Uptime powers and insurgents enjoy fast communication. Pope would be informed about something, or not if bringers of news are unlucky, maybe three months (or up to one year) after the fact (unless somebody uptime decide to start trading with him, or extract tribute from him, earlier). Then he would consider matters for a few years. News would be heavily disorted and frankly fantastical.

These were times when you couldn't know what your own lords are doing now. You could know, maybe, somewhat, what your own lords were doing three weeks ago and hope that call to raise levies arrive everywhere properly.
 
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liberty90 said:
Uptime powers and insurgents enjoy fast communication. Pope would be informed about something, or not if bringers of news are unlucky, maybe three months (or up to one year) after the fact (unless somebody uptime decide to start trading with him, or extract tribute from him, earlier). Then he would consider matters for a few years. News would be heavily disorted and frankly fantastical.
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If the news arrive to pope Urban three months after the ISOT, then the news will arrive just in time for the Council of Clermont.
 
azadi said:
If the news arrive to pope Urban three months after the ISOT, then the news will arrive just in time for the Council of Clermont.
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To be fair, Israel may decide to open diplomatic relations much faster. Or not. I'm not sure.

And as was said before, I'm somewhat worried that conquering Egypt and Libya, something that can be done easily with three corvettes and maybe 5 000 soldiers, with less ammo use than average training exercise, can be strategically sound to secure more oil and grain.
 
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Im really curious on the development of warfare in this ISOT.

Like, obviously medieval soldiers wouldn't step up against guns so how would the world adapt in the next 50-100 years? My money is on medieval bootleg terrorism and early guerrilla warfare.

For example going full imperialist and releasing your inner Britain and eating the entire middle east for oil is probably just going to make medieval bootleg terrorism happen after crushing armies with tank treads and showing how useless the medieval army would be.


So the medieval army wouldn't. It'd be a clusterfuck and tear apart the entirety of medieval warfare apart in its manual and change warfare forever.
 
Sword of Mars said:
crushing armies with tank treads
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As I said, you can even do this... very literally...

Sadly this is almost war crime zone, because such action would be a pure mechanical slaughterhouse.

Shooting a few shells full of toxic gas, while obviously a war crime, somehow sounds to me more humanitarian when I consider this. xd


Edit: I think that a few conventional shells and one approaching tank should be sufficient to break lines without too much need for crushing or illegal chemicals, though. No, people are not zombies. People can rout in panic.
 
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yinko said:
No, because while they have a lot of arms now, they have to import the things to make those arms, they have to import the copper for the bullet jackets, the chemicals for the gunpowder, for the rocket propellant, the fuel for their vehicles, they have to import their technology and the stuff to keep it working. Israel is one of the worst possible options for this actually. Probably the best ones to get ISOT'd would be a merely semi-developed country like India, where they actually still have people who understand how to do things at every level of the technological chain.
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A lot of Jews lived in Europe in 1095 CE, and many downtime European Jews will likely make Aliyah to Israel because of pogroms in Europe. Concerning Kurdistan, the Kurdish regions of Turkey and Iran haven't been ISOTed, which means, that downtime Kurds exist.
 
A small thought: there is about 40-50 millions of people in the whole of downtime Europe, and 7.2 million in France.
Population of Israel: 8 million
Syria: 18 million (almost half of Europe)
Iraq: 37 million (practically Europe)

Israel + Syria + Iraq = 63 millions. Slightly smaller than the Chinese Empire (Song Dynasty).


There is about 8 million people in Egypt, comparable to Israel (enormous - according to the medieval/ancient standards - Egyptian agricultural productivity thanks to the Nile; population highly concentrated, easy to control, juicy target...). Libya is almost empty.
 
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liberty90 said:
A small thought: there is about 40-50 millions of people in the whole of downtime Europe, and 7.2 million in France.
Population of Israel: 8 million
Syria: 18 million (almost half of Europe)
Iraq: 37 million (practically Europe)

Israel + Syria + Iraq = 63 millions. Slightly smaller than the Chinese Empire (Song Dynasty).
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China will remain the world's most populous country with roughly 110 million inhabitants after the ISOT.
 
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Yeah, I mainly wanted to point out that, from the modern perspective, historical population numbers are pretty shocking. Shockingly low, that is.
 
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I feel the OP isn't being very realistic in things they expect to happen.

For instance, the pope isn't just going to magically learn of ISIS, beyond foreign (most likely Jew) diplomats telling him of them.
Then, he has no reason to believe things are as is said, for everyone always demonizes their enemies.
Then then, he has to properly understand how dangerous ISIS would actually be. Why should they care about some group of heathens when the Turks and Egypt are known factors?
 
Somebodynobody10 said:
I feel the OP isn't being very realistic in things they expect to happen.

For instance, the pope isn't just going to magically learn of ISIS, beyond foreign (most likely Jew) diplomats telling him of them.
Then, he has no reason to believe things are as is said, for everyone always demonizes their enemies.
Then then, he has to properly understand how dangerous ISIS would actually be. Why should they care about some group of heathens when the Turks and Egypt are known factors?
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Because ISIS has weapons far superior to the weapons used in the Middle Ages.
 
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