Chapter 1:
The summer of 2014 had been very eventful in the Middle East. The Islamist...
The summer of 2014 had been very eventful in the Middle East. The Islamist...
Pope Urban's great shock - The 2014 Middle East ISOT'ed to 1095 CE
- Thread starter azadi
- Start date
- Medieval Supernatural
- Created
- Status
- Ongoing
- Watchers
- 17
- Recent readers
- 0
- Location
- A secret place
Chapter 1:
The summer of 2014 had been very eventful in the Middle East. The Islamist terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) had conquered Mosul on June 10 2014, and soon large parts of Iraq and Syria were ruled by ISIS. On June 29 2014 declared Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, himself caliph in the al-Nuri mosque in Mosul. On June 12 2014 conquered the Peshmerga of KRG (the autonomous regional government of South (Iraqi) Kurdistan) Kirkuk. In August launched ISIS a new offensive throughout northern Iraq. They captured Shingal (Sinjar), a Yazidi region, and the Yazidis fled Shingal with American help. The Peshmerga managed to halt the advance of ISIS.
The major factions in Syria and Iraq in August 2014 were:
The Assad regime: A secular dictatorship led by the Assad family, who are Alawite Muslims. The current president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, is the son of Hafez al-Assad, a former President of Syria. The Assad regime controls Damascus, the coastal region of Syria and most of western Syria.
The Republic of Iraq: The Republic of Iraq is a multi-party democracy ruled by Shia Islamists. It is quite unstable and dysfunctional. It controls the majority Shia Muslim southeastern part of Iraq.
ISIS: ISIS is an extremist Sunni Islamist terrorist group, which desires the eradication of all infidels (e.g. Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians and Yazidis) and heretic Muslims (e.g Shia Muslims and Alawite Muslims). Even moderate Sunni Muslims are persecuted by ISIS. ISIS controls northwestern Iraq and large parts of Syria.
The Free Syrian Army: An alliance of secular and moderate Islamist Syrian rebel groups. It is rapidly disintegrating.
KRG: The autonomous government of South (Iraqi) Kurdistan. It is a secular multi-party democracy, which guarantees full freedom of religion, including the right to conversion from Islam. KRG is dominated by conservatives and social democrats. The army of KRG is called Peshmerga. The Peshmerga is stronger than the army of the Republic of Iraq.
PYD: The Syrian branch of the PKK, a Kurdish Maoist terrorist group originating in Turkey. It controls the Kurdish regions of Syria (Efrin (Afrin), Kobani, Dêrik and Qamishlo (Qamishli)).
The summer of 2014 had been very eventful in the Middle East. The Islamist terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) had conquered Mosul on June 10 2014, and soon large parts of Iraq and Syria were ruled by ISIS. On June 29 2014 declared Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of ISIS, himself caliph in the al-Nuri mosque in Mosul. On June 12 2014 conquered the Peshmerga of KRG (the autonomous regional government of South (Iraqi) Kurdistan) Kirkuk. In August launched ISIS a new offensive throughout northern Iraq. They captured Shingal (Sinjar), a Yazidi region, and the Yazidis fled Shingal with American help. The Peshmerga managed to halt the advance of ISIS.
The major factions in Syria and Iraq in August 2014 were:
The Assad regime: A secular dictatorship led by the Assad family, who are Alawite Muslims. The current president of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, is the son of Hafez al-Assad, a former President of Syria. The Assad regime controls Damascus, the coastal region of Syria and most of western Syria.
The Republic of Iraq: The Republic of Iraq is a multi-party democracy ruled by Shia Islamists. It is quite unstable and dysfunctional. It controls the majority Shia Muslim southeastern part of Iraq.
ISIS: ISIS is an extremist Sunni Islamist terrorist group, which desires the eradication of all infidels (e.g. Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians and Yazidis) and heretic Muslims (e.g Shia Muslims and Alawite Muslims). Even moderate Sunni Muslims are persecuted by ISIS. ISIS controls northwestern Iraq and large parts of Syria.
The Free Syrian Army: An alliance of secular and moderate Islamist Syrian rebel groups. It is rapidly disintegrating.
KRG: The autonomous government of South (Iraqi) Kurdistan. It is a secular multi-party democracy, which guarantees full freedom of religion, including the right to conversion from Islam. KRG is dominated by conservatives and social democrats. The army of KRG is called Peshmerga. The Peshmerga is stronger than the army of the Republic of Iraq.
PYD: The Syrian branch of the PKK, a Kurdish Maoist terrorist group originating in Turkey. It controls the Kurdish regions of Syria (Efrin (Afrin), Kobani, Dêrik and Qamishlo (Qamishli)).
Last edited:
- Location
- A secret place
I would like @ScottishMongol to contribute to the timeline. I have never written an ISOT timeline before, and I find it difficult to predict the long-term effects of ISOT's on downtime societies. But I have clear ideas of the short-term effects of the ISOT.
Jamie Roberts
Hávamál 127
- Location
- N/A
- Pronouns
- she/her
I swear I've seen you be corrected for this bizarre slander in another thread. Hang on-
-found it.
Rojava is an anarchist commune, in the classical sense of practicing direct democracy. Whether you think that's a good idea or not, its still the least Maoist thing I can think of.
So either the ISOTED muslim countries manage to stop ISIS with the help or not of Israel or they fall to it and then Israel turns the Middle East to a nuclear parking lot?
I don't think the IDF has the supplies to take out ISIL in a regular style campaign so the death cult goes in a nuclear holocaust, just like they liked it?
If said regions are the ones ISOTED that is? What about the rest of the Middle East? Iran? Jordan? Egypt? The rest of em?
I don't think the IDF has the supplies to take out ISIL in a regular style campaign so the death cult goes in a nuclear holocaust, just like they liked it?
If said regions are the ones ISOTED that is? What about the rest of the Middle East? Iran? Jordan? Egypt? The rest of em?
- Location
- A secret place
The rest of the Middle East is like it was in 1095 CE. The Fatimids rule Egypt, and the Seljuk Turks rule Iran. The Peshmerga was able to stop ISIS in OTL, and the Shia militias in Iraq were also able to stop ISIS in OTL. But ISIS will likely steamroll Syria if Israel doesn't intervene.
Last edited:
- Location
- A secret place
Chapter 2:
At 4.56 PM Kurdish time on August 14 2014 were Israel (including East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights), Syria and Iraq sent back in time to the exact same time and date in 1095 CE. In addition to the peoples living in Israel, Syria and Iraq, the Israeli Jewish settlers living on the West Bank were sent back in time and arrived in the places in Israel, where they or their ancestors had lived before they moved to the West Bank, and the Kurds, which had fled South (Iraqi) Kurdistan, and their descendants were sent back in time and arrived in the places in South (Iraqi) Kurdistan, where they or their ancestors had lived before they fled.
At 4.56 PM Kurdish time on August 14 2014 were Israel (including East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights), Syria and Iraq sent back in time to the exact same time and date in 1095 CE. In addition to the peoples living in Israel, Syria and Iraq, the Israeli Jewish settlers living on the West Bank were sent back in time and arrived in the places in Israel, where they or their ancestors had lived before they moved to the West Bank, and the Kurds, which had fled South (Iraqi) Kurdistan, and their descendants were sent back in time and arrived in the places in South (Iraqi) Kurdistan, where they or their ancestors had lived before they fled.
- Location
- A secret place
I have decided to not ISOT the Palestinian territories, because I don't want the Israel-Palestine conflict to be part of my timeline.
My first post-ISOT updates will focus on KRG, Israel and the Catholic Church. Pope Urban II will hold a very different Clermont speech.
My first post-ISOT updates will focus on KRG, Israel and the Catholic Church. Pope Urban II will hold a very different Clermont speech.
- Location
- US
Still wouldn't work, modern militaries are too heavily reliant on a global infrastructure to work, the smaller and less self-sufficient the country the worse off they would be. And since modern countries generally lack in basic skills they would actually get stomped by the locals after a few years. Like if you took the average person on SV and put them in the year 1000AD, they would be less useful than a common peasant, since at least those peasants had the skills needed to survive without too much support. It's not just the Middle-East that has this problem but it has a worse issue with it because there is so little real manufacturing and a lot of traditional skills have been lost.
- Location
- A secret place
This is a very interesting theory. I have always imagined modern countries, which is ISOT'ed to a pre-industrial era, to become superpowers. I'm using an idea made by @ScottishMongol (I have changed her idea by not ISOT'ing the Palestinian territories). She assumed, that Israel and ISIS would dominate the world after the ISOT. Perhaps we are mistaken.
- Location
- Somewhere
Everything that is not supported by a full chain of production and cadre of professionals with the appropriate technical and theoretical knowledge breaks down within a generation or two. This isn't supposition, it's basic reality. Just about every aspect of modern civilization is heavily interdependent with other components of it, and relies on the accumulated knowledge base and infrastructure built up over preceding centuries.
If you ISOTed the U.S., Russia, or China entire, they could probably pull it off. Most other countries just flat-out don't control enough of the resources and production facilities they depend on to keep their infrastructure and pre-ISOT technology base intact.
The best bet for a smaller region/group in an ISOT situation is to spend what they have to carve out a niche in their new world and build up a lower-tech baseline they're actually capable of maintaining before they run out of everything that makes them more than a bunch of unskilled labor. That, and ensuring that they embark on a rigorous education process to cross-train the people already there and ensure what knowledge they do have survives past the ISOT group.
- Location
- A secret place
Israel has a large arms industry. It will ensure Israel being the superpower of this world.
- Location
- US
No, because while they have a lot of arms now, they have to import the things to make those arms, they have to import the copper for the bullet jackets, the chemicals for the gunpowder, for the rocket propellant, the fuel for their vehicles, they have to import their technology and the stuff to keep it working. Israel is one of the worst possible options for this actually. Probably the best ones to get ISOT'd would be a merely semi-developed country like India, where they actually still have people who understand how to do things at every level of the technological chain.
liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
- Location
- Poland
You have bridges. Bridges. Made out of steel. More steel than medieval Europe produces during ten years, probably. Fucking bridges. I'm not sure that you understand disparity in materials, even with only badly designed recycling.
At the same time, downtimers do not yet understand what chimney is. Seriously.
No to mention that glass, along with many other luxuries, like mirrors, are suddently basically worthless, as in the Middle East everyone owns more of than than a King.
Last edited:
- Location
- UK
How is Israel supplied with food? That is, would they be able to support themselves for the short term and the long term? As mentioned, they would be powerful at the start, but don't know how long they would be able to keep it up. And you would have to consider internal issues, there would have to be no exceptions for military/agricultural/industrial service.
liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
- Location
- Poland
List of countries by food energy intake - Wikipedia
You could probably cut Israeli calorie intake in half without people outright dying. This would be simply unhealthy.
- Location
- UK
Not really what I meant. How much food they would have? How many days/weeks of supply before they have to depend on their farms?
liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
- Location
- Poland
War reserve stock - Wikipedia
Standard war reserves are designed for a month of intense industrial warfare, but this is not exactly what you are asking about.
Global strategic petroleum reserves - Wikipedia
270 days of usual fuel consumption (again, if we consider strategic reserves only).
There surely is strategic grain reserve, but it's hard to find that.
liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
- Location
- Poland
Firearm production is trivial when you own any semi-modern machine tools common in any modern/post1900 village, not even cities needed.
Błyskawica submachine gun - Wikipedia
KIS (weapon) - Wikipedia
Hobbyists can do that. Underground groups can do that. There was a polish peasant during WW2 that was able to design guns from scavenged steel parts. There are mountains of steel everywhere in the modern world.
Amount of steel pipes, copper pipes, steel parts (of EXTREMELY high quality - relativiely), junkyards, and steel/copper/plastic/anything EVERYTHING is to downtimers simply not possible to imagine.
People have in and around their private homes more high-quality glass, high-quality copper, high-quality paper, high-quality steel, high-quality fabric (and I'm not able to remember everything, surely), exotic alloys, toys, etc, etc than a few medieval villages or a small town. One car = amount of extremely high-quality materials to scavenge that would, in pure raw material value, made you a richest man than average medieval lord.
Last edited:
- Location
- A secret place
Israel will import Kurdish oil in this timeline (the Peshmerga controlled Kirkuk, when the ISOT happened). The problems you mention may become problems in the long-term. I haven't put much thought into the long-term effects of the ISOT yet. Short-term, the biggest issue is basically how to stop ISIS with the great powers of 2014 having disappeared. Israel, KRG, Assad and the Iraqi government now have a common enemy, which they have to fight without support from USA, Russia, Iran or Turkey. Kurdish independence is inevitable in this timeline, because Turkey and Iran has disappeared. Israeli annexation of Judea and Samaria is inevitable in this timeline, because the Palestinian territories weren't ISOT'ed. As the superpower of this world, Israel will have to decide on a strategy for defeating or containing ISIS. Israel will not be distracted by the Israel/Palestine conflict in the fight against ISIS, because the Palestinian territories weren't ISOT'ed.
liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
- Location
- Poland
Well, in the case of any issues with food, Israel may decide to institute colonial administration & requisition grain supplies from downtime Egypt.
Last edited:
- Location
- US
Do either of those countries have oil refineries to make gasoline? Is there enough food production in the Middle-East to keep people from starving without importation? What happens when the rest of the Muslim and Christian world decide that the change is heretical and launch Jihad/Crusades against them?
You may say that bullets trump everything, but the real issue is that there would be more enemies than you have bullets or bombs, and modern troops are not trained to combat ancient tactics. This is significant because tactics are designed to counter specific other sets of tactics, so small unit tactics that they use currently are mostly designed to counter artillery and are ineffective when you don't have firearms.
I imagine that a lot of the resources of ammunition would get depleted within the first few years of conflict against ISIS and one another. As soon as ISIS was defeated then there would be no reason to work together and in fact the prevailing view would probably be that if there was only on power remaining from the ISOT then they could reap all the benefits of their OOC situation. I can easily picture another Arab alliance, this time with mixed armor and cavalry from across the Muslim world coming in to exterminate Israel. People like to talk up Israel's military clout, but most of that is because the west backs them so heavily and uses to them to test new military innovations, without the backing of the US and Europe they would be fucked.
liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
- Location
- Poland
To shatter 10 000 medieval army you need about:
4 technicals
+
5-6 AK-47.
I can wargame this with you. Try to plausibly plan for defeating 4 technicals with meele 10 000 army that is not composed out of zombies (that is, would shatter at 40%+ death rates, and to wound someone you need to only pass metal armor that could be, as well as rifles are concerned, - made out of toilet paper). I wouldn't add two or three snipers able to kill your commanders from one kilometer distance and from concealed position, out of pity (cost: 20 rounds, maybe).
More than this. Generally speaking, late-XIX century force of 100 men (that is, with a primitive machine gun and simple rifles; without cars, without radios, etc) is able to defeat 10 000 meele army without losses.
Look at this:
Battle of the Shangani - Wikipedia
...and keep in mind that 700 people from the colonial police (4 died) were needed to defeat 5000 warriors (1500 died) only because many of these warriors HAD firearms.
First Matabele War - Wikipedia
Any modern force, even under severe shortage of ammunition and fuel, make this matter funny. This is not a warfare. This is crowd control. You can shatter their lines with ONE assault rifle and 1000 rounds. In fact one round would easily pass though the mighty shield, plate armor, the knight, and then somebody behind him - slaughterhouse.
If the Israel and other uptime countries shatter and starve, then you can expect half of Europe ruled by Israeli/Middle Eastern warlords, Somali-style, not the other way around.
PS. Also, imagine charging on a literally one line of barbed wire with medieval cavalry. Or with any cavalry but without modern scissors and stuff to carefully cut that.
PPS. Or even pretty old, unreliable, 20 year old minefield.
Even ISIS could refine some oil, and produce weapons & ammunition, in its workshops, because generally speaking this is not a hard stuff when you have the hard part - that is a few modern machine tools/lathes that can work steel/etc. (generally stuff that you can buy for your garage if you own 80 000$).
Last edited:
- Location
- A secret place
Israel will likely be supported by Christian Europe, because Israel allows Christian pilgrims free access to the Christian holy sites in Jerusalem and in other parts of the Holy Land. The Seljuqs limiting Christian pilgrimage to Jerusalem was an important reason for the First Crusade.
The ISOT will likely trigger apocalyptic fears and hopes in Europe. The restoration of Jewish rule in Jerusalem and the Holy Land will be seen as a sign of the end times, and ISIS will be seen as a formidable threat against Christendom. Fanatical militant Muslims with weapons far superior to those used in Europe will strike Christendom with fear. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi might be considered Antichrist in Europe.
liberty90
Evil Neoliberal Cat
- Location
- Poland
...not really, no, Imho. Health issues, malnutrition, cultural issues (like, it's obvious to the pilgrims that you can beat your own children) - not many people would want to simply allow these pilgrims.
Last edited: